MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #7 *Arrest*

[Evey]

I keep trying to think of what could get on her body and clothes that be would need to burn away. Body hair normal hair facial hair all are options. The shoe seems as if he was interrupted and maybe had to run off cause he heard the search party. But I still say what if the killer had her by where the phone was and the aunt looking signaled it being time for him to dispose of her before the aunt got any hint he had her. People keep saying her mom and aunt like her mother is married to a women am I reading that wrong? Also he could drop the phone in the sewer and the water would be moving it around. If it had a waterproof case. But again what did he need to burn off... cause clearly he could have burned the phone and forest if he wanted but he didn't and to me it shows some sort of connection to the area and wanting to preserve it.

 

[Rocky1]

That's why the photo I saw of the memorial where people had been leaving her running shoes and most were pairs and one appeared to be just one and it creeped me out. If she was brought there from a place it could have fallen in the car or location

I believe the one running shoe was a symbol for a fallen jogger, the same as the Missing Man formation would be performed as a flyby at a funeral for a fallen pilot, for example.

 

[Rocky1]

I keep trying to think of what could get on her body and clothes that be would need to burn away. Body hair normal hair facial hair all are options. The shoe seems as if he was interrupted and maybe had to run off cause he heard the search party. But I still say what if the killer had her by where the phone was and the aunt looking signaled it being time for him to dispose of her before the aunt got any hint he had her. People keep saying her mom and aunt like her mother is married to a women am I reading that wrong? Also he could drop the phone in the sewer and the water would be moving it around. If it had a waterproof case. But again what did he need to burn off... cause clearly he could have burned the phone and forest if he wanted but he didn't and to me it shows some sort of connection to the area and wanting to preserve it.

Skin, blood, hair. All that may have been on her clothing, and he wanted to destroy it.
The mother lives with the aunt and uncle. That's why you hear so much about the Aunt.
Time of death was determined to be before 3 pm. The mother and the aunt didn't start looking until around 3:30 or so. And the search party may not have formed until around 4:30, (speculation) So I doubt he heard the search party.

 

[Rocky1]

For a while now, I thought that VMs running shoe may have come off while she was being dragged into the path. Now I am not so sure, after thinking about it more.
I think the perp would have carried her into the woods, due to the extra time it would have taken him to drag the body over the log etc, increasing the chances of being seen by a passer by. So where is the missing shoe?
Below I posted a link. In this example, there is a picture of a running shoe that is melted without being exposed to any flame, just the heat from pavement.
The ambient temp that day was 106 degrees. That would make the pavement either side of 150 degrees at peak.
After looking at the picture, I think it is possible that the other shoe melted, with temps reaching 500 degrees plus, along with flame.
This to me anyway makes more sense, being one shoe was burned partially. Although there would have been a wad of melted shriveled rubber, it may have been buried in the ash and small enough that LE didn't know at the time MSM got the initial report. I doubt LE went through the fire at the very beginning, due to the heat. Just the heat of a clothes dryer would make a pair of sneakers shrink. JMO.
Make sense?

http://www.ecowatch.com/its-so-hot-in-texas-that-shoes-are-literally-melting-1882083385.html

 

[liz b.]

]]I keep trying to think of what could get on her body and clothes that be would need to burn away[/B][/B]. Body hair normal hair facial hair all are options. The shoe seems as if he was interrupted and maybe had to run off cause he heard the search party. But I still say what if the killer had her by where the phone was and the aunt looking signaled it being time for him to dispose of her before the aunt got any hint he had her. People keep saying her mom and aunt like her mother is married to a women am I reading that wrong? Also he could drop the phone in the sewer and the water would be moving it around. If it had a waterproof case. But again what did he need to burn off... cause clearly he could have burned the phone and forest if he wanted but he didn't and to me it shows some sort of connection to the area and wanting to preserve it.

RBBM : Semen on her body, and on her clothing would be my guess. jmo

 

[ForensicMass]

For a while now, I thought that VMs running shoe may have come off while she was being dragged into the path. Now I am not so sure, after thinking about it more.
I think the perp would have carried her into the woods, due to the extra time it would have taken him to drag the body over the log etc, increasing the chances of being seen by a passer by. So where is the missing shoe?
Below I posted a link. In this example, there is a picture of a running shoe that is melted without being exposed to any flame, just the heat from pavement.
The ambient temp that day was 106 degrees. That would make the pavement either side of 150 degrees at peak.
After looking at the picture, I think it is possible that the other shoe melted, with temps reaching 500 degrees plus, along with flame.
This to me anyway makes more sense, being one shoe was burned partially. Although there would have been a wad of melted shriveled rubber, it may have been buried in the ash and small enough that LE didn't know at the time MSM got the initial report. I doubt LE went through the fire at the very beginning, due to the heat. Just the heat of a clothes dryer would make a pair of sneakers shrink. JMO.
Make sense?

http://www.ecowatch.com/its-so-hot-in-texas-that-shoes-are-literally-melting-1882083385.html

I like the idea of a melted shoe on site because it limits his risk, but they just don't melt that easily. I've melted the tips of my boots standing right at a massive bonfire. I DO think it could and would have been deformed. But I don't think there would be any question of whether it was there. I think a melted shoe remnant would be obvious. Also also, if one is melted into oblivion why is the other only "partially burned"?

 

[searunner]

Mainely -- response to your post:

No, I didn't make the map that I posted. I'm not certain who did. I recall a poster from early on named Forager made one map, but I think at least one other person made one, too.

I laughed when I read, "How dare my job spill over into my real life?"

You don't have to concern yourself with coming across as arrogant, IMO. It was obvious to me and I'd guess to most others that you shared that you're from the area as one reason that the crime has particularly hit home with you. (And, if it wasn't, then chalk it up to poor reading comprehension skills! (light tone )

It's generous of you to say that you don't have any more insight, etc., into what happened, but I do think there is info that only people with on-the-ground local experience would be able to offer. So, all other things being equal, a local person or someone who grew up in the area and remembers it well, or someone like FM who recent visited the CS, would have an edge over the rest of us.

 

[Rocky1]

I like the idea of a melted shoe on site because it limits his risk, but they just don't melt that easily. I've melted the tips of my boots standing right at a massive bonfire. I DO think it could and would have been deformed. But I don't think there would be any question of whether it was there. I think a melted shoe remnant would be obvious. Also also, if one is melted into oblivion why is the other only "partially burned"?

The reason I was thinking both shoes were burned there, is because I would think if he burned her clothing, and one shoe, he was trying to rid the evidence. I can't think of a reason to go through with burning half only. That to me would be like trying to hide a body by burying it, but only burying it half in the ground.
One partially burned shoe is not only easy to explain, it tells me another thing.
One shoe is in the center of the fire, and the other is off to one side. Ever leave a fire unattended? The logs that were in the center of the fire are ash. The outer parts are not burned at all. The same could apply with the shoe.
That would also tell me that he lit the fire and left right away, leaving the fire unattended.If he hung around, he could have thrown the other shoe more in the center of the fire, once he saw it was only partially burned.
I know what you mean about the boot tips, however, those were boots, and you weren't "in" the fire. If you look at the photo I posted, the sole is fairly thin on the Nikes.
I have a older pair of Asics. Maybe I can do a little experiment and take pictures.
With you being an avid runner, what brand shoe do you think she wore? I know there is no way to tell for sure, but it was posted that she was on top in the fashion department. I'm not up on the latest and greatest as far as jogging goes.
In other words, I wouldn't do a reenactment of the JFK assassination using a Bow and Arrow.

 

[Mainely16]

To open, I haven’t yet given opinions about who this is, what happened, so this will be lengthy. I always think for as long as I need until I feel some spark of confidence about my ideas. In VM’s case, I have read daily since the start. If anyone is inclined to read this, I'd love some holes poked in my thinking.There will be flaws and inconsistencies, of course. I’m kinda human that way. The good thing is, the killer is also human (ugh, I hate to say that), but the good part is, he messes up, too. And, I think he did. I don’t think he is confident these days. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is one of those who finds a way to leave the area, even though his roots are there. (Yes, I see him as being from the area. I see no connection to Karina’s case in NY at all. Unfortunately, there are as many monsters as gumballs.) I do think LE put out thing about SUV bc enough people saw it, they think it's linked, and might send a message to the killer that there is evidence. It also adds something something else to the puzzle for friends and family members who may be suspicious of someone.

ThinkHard had brought up a monster named John Regan. He makes me think of the kind of guy we’re looking at here, and the situation/young woman victim reminds me of VM. Regan is still in prison, went in in 2006 as a stalker/rapist. This occurred in Waterbury CT. His family was entrenched in the community as stand-up citizens. He was the proverbial hard working family man…wife was teacher, 3 children, worked for the family’s construction company in roofing, I think.

By the time he was arrested after a failed assault, he had been committing crimes against women over a span of over 25 years. An employee of a photo developing place/pharmacy also had called police because a man had turned in film taken of different women from weird angles...clearly stalking them.

I am taking this paragraph from a site. Link is below. John Regan got caught when, “…working on a family construction project, had removed the back seat of his van, laid down a blue tarp, and had pre-knotted ropes waiting to help secure his victim. Regan had parked his van so his sliding side door was lined up next to the driver's door of his intended target. When the girl went to her car Regan walked up behind her, wrapped one arm around her waist and covered her mouth with the other. When Regan began dragging her towards his trap, he got more than he bargained for. The 17-year-old girl is an elite athlete on the Saratoga Springs cross country team, which is the top ranked high school squad in the country. She fought like hell. When Regan covered her mouth she bite him, kicked him and screamed. She was able to get away and two adults immediately confronted Regan in the parking lot. He jumped into his van and fled, but the adults pursued him in their vehicles and contacted the local police via cell phone. Regan was pulled over and arrested minutes after the failed abduction attempt. Particularly chilling were the contents reported to be inside the back of the van. Some media outlets reported a blue tarp and a noose. Others reported pre-knotted ropes, a blue tarp, a bottle of liquor and a shovel. Yet others reported a blue tarp, ropes and a rake. He already stands accused of sexually assaulting three women in Waterbury, so it is not a quantum leap to believe that at a minimum he was intent on raping the girl. But the tarp and shovel hint at a possible more sinister conclusion to his plan. Only John Regan knows, and he's not talking. And within 48 hours of his arrest in New York he attempted to kill himself by hanging himself with a bed sheet.”

I wish they had let him. I think there are many more undocumented, unlinked crimes.
More details here:
https://www.janedoenomore.org/story/articles/95-1212005

All IMO, I see VM’s assault happening in a similar way. I think if she hadn’t been in a rural location like this, she might have had a shot. I think that was his SUV. I think he planned to grab her as Regan tried to above and get her in his vehicle. I don't think he wanted to kill VM there. Grab her there, yes. I think he had a knife (likely) with him or a gun, some kind of weapon. I think he went into this cocky, thinking no one would see or hear anything because it was so remote .No cameras around, for sure. She was also about 115 pounds, a small girl, so he planned on moving her/tossing her in the car like a feather. I think it is likely he pulled a knife or gun, gave a "Scream and I'll ..." kind of warning, and figured she'd acquiesce. I think he saw it going down as a blitz attack, throw her in the car, gone. The car offered some kind of shield from any passing cars.

But, she fought for her life. Hopefully, she got in some groin kicks, scratched his eyes and face. If she back head butted him, he might have gotten a bloody lip or nose, leaving his DNA on her head, immediately (one of the burned areas). I think he envisioned more submission and fear. As we know, Vanessa had taken self-defense lessons, and was the type of girl who thought about these things. She lived in NY. She traveled. She was no one’s dummy. She had more "informed fight" in her than he expected. She knew to get DNA. For the police to say scratches, she got his blood under her fingernails. She was bruised from trying to kick, knee, elbow the crap out of him, so he got bruised too. Not going have a semantics war, but they said scrapes and scratches. This makes me think about the knife. I think he may have cut his own hand, scraped his arm, etc. I think there was more of his own blood left that he’d considered. Of course, he left his skin cells, hair and likely semen. Put yourself in his shoes. Nervous, yet?
All that was needed for this to happen was 30 seconds. She had no chance against him because of her size and difference in upper body strength.

In terms of the shoe, it may have come off as he dragged her into the woods. He couldn't risk trying to force her into car, or her heading for the road. The only choice he had was to drag her fast into the woods. It wasn't his plan. I think he kept the weapon on her the whole time, which also made him think she would just comply. But, she didn’t. She made it difficult for him because she knew she had nothing to lose.

I don't think he worried much about technological issues. It is a rural, wooded area and I think this added to his sense of safety (lack of cameras, etc). I think he grabbed her phone when he got her down in the woods and tossed it aside. I’m sure he tried to turn it off.

When he left and “cleaned up” the area, he grabbed whatever he saw, including the phone, which I think he slid in his back pocket. He may have butt powered/ dialed while driving. IDK. I don’t see him driving away cool as a cucumber. I think he lost confidence. It didn't go as envisioned, which made him disorganized and angrier. He had basically just been in a physical fight, and knew his dna was everywhere. He also had to drive home beaten up, return to his life beaten up, which would add another complication he didn't expect.

Rocky, you had asked Forensics (I think), “The killer in your scenario drove over 3 miles with it turned on. Who would get in a vehicle, sit on a seat with a phone in their back pocket, and not know it's there?” Forensics, you had responded with something like “Not everyone is smart as you and me.”

IMO, I don’t think was about smarts. This is someone who had a lot of adrenaline pumping, who'd just raped and killed a girl outdoors on a Sunday afternoon with cars driving by. He had some of her items in his car. He was visibly wounded. He was likely more fixed on how to drive back into the flow of traffic and the flow of “normal life" - unseen.

Graphic language - warning:



I think the sexual assault was a mash-up, too. He may have tried to force her to orally sodomize him or he masturbated while being over her because vaginally it wasn’t working for him…whether it was clothing in the way, or she was too strong, or still kicking. Perhaps this was why he tried to burn her face/head or hair later if there was semen. Likely he dripped sweat on her, too. I think it genuinely wasn't clear to LE if she had been sexually assaulted, unlike with Karina Vetrano, the typical signs they are used to seeing with a sexual assault were present.
VM went through hell, but at least she gave him hell. As did Karina who also fought her attacker.

Anyhow, I think VM's killer strangled her at this point, knowing he had to deal with clean up and get out of there.

In terms of burning, I don’t see him as being a pyro. I think he had a lighter on him, maybe a smoker, and tried to get rid of dna on what she had been assailing him with – hands and feet. I just think it was part of the cleanup, but since it was so dry, he knew it could possibly get more out of hand and worried the smell of smoke would get attention. I equivocate on the fire element. He could have something in his truck that would do more burn-wise as part of a trade, but I’m not so sure. If I recall, Forensics said the trees had more of a rot/mold on them rather than burning. Forensics, if you're here - did you see any fire marks on the trees?

I just think it may have been on the spot thinking how to get rid of DNA and any evidence he could. The gravity of what he had just done, knowing his car is sitting on the side of the road...all of this just hasn't sat squarely with me when people have said he "took his time with her."

When leaving, I can’t imagine that he popped a uturn. Too noticeable. It could stop/slow down a car if there were any coming and of course the last thing he wants is to be seen by anyone. And, if a cop happened to come along, he could get pulled over for that alone. Why risk it?

One question I do have -- where most picture the car being – and parked facing north – does that offer him a good long view to see if cars are coming and going, or is there a curve that would impede his line of sight? If he had a clear, longish view both ways, that might make me more open to the u turn. Otherwise, I'd think he’d drive ahead as “normal.” I have not been on that road in a very, very long time. I can't picture that for the life of me.

For some reason, I think he went North to go South.

Lastly, was this opportunistic or planned? First, I do not see any relationship of any sort. I think the connection could have been he was just one of those random people we all have on the periphery of our lives -- someone we may small talk with once in a while out and about, someone we notice by face, but don't remember a name, a friend’s coworker/friend, a guy she’s run into at the store a few times, a guy, for example, who owns a small lawn biz that does pruning/weed pulling in the neighborhood. I am not talking about a gardener. I am talking about a service. None of these examples I am offering as what I am comfortable with -- just an example of the type of relationship I see. Someone she has, because of who she is as a person, has given a smile and genuinely friendly hello -- that she didn’t think about again, but he did. Someone who hears about her goings-on from one of her friends, a cousin, something like this. I think he knows when she comes home and when she returns. In this way, I believe there was a "plan"

I see him her age- 40, middle class, HS educated, works in something with his hands, successful in his way & smart, but not someone VM would be involved with. Whether she ever rebuffed an offer? I don’t think so. I just think he knew she’d never consider him. The anger was not at her, but it had to do with him, how he felt about himself, coupled with misogyny/possible issues in the past. I’m sure with past gfs he has showed angry behavior, been abusive. May have lost gfs due to this. I don’t see currently married. I do see some kind of substance issue, perhaps a stimulant.

I watched a video with an interview with a neighbor from way back. The woman said that she is a resident of Brooks Station Road and said State Police showed up at her doorstep around 1:30 a.m., asking whether she or her husband had seen anything unusual. She hadn’t, but said to the reporter that the large, wooded lots along the road make it easy to avoid notice.

She said, “I can see how, maybe, she was walking or jogging by one of these properties, or even in front of my house, and someone could grab her and bring her right into the woods."

At the end of the day, he was looking for a victim, not a fight. This caused some errors at the scene. I can only hope somehow his freaking DNA enters the system without another woman losing her life.

This is all my opinion, FWIW. which is worth less than a cup of coffee - gas station coffee, too, not S-Bucks or the like.

 

[Rocky1]

To open, I haven’t yet given opinions about who this is, what happened, so this will be lengthy. I always think for as long as I need until I feel some spark of confidence about my ideas. In VM’s case, I have read daily since the start. If anyone is inclined to read this, I'd love some holes poked in my thinking.There will be flaws and inconsistencies, of course. I’m kinda human that way. The good thing is, the killer is also human (ugh, I hate to say that), but the good part is, he messes up, too. And, I think he did. I don’t think he is confident these days. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is one of those who finds a way to leave the area, even though his roots are there. (Yes, I see him as being from the area. I see no connection to Karina’s case in NY at all. Unfortunately, there are as many monsters as gumballs.) I do think LE put out thing about SUV bc enough people saw it, they think it's linked, and might send a message to the killer that there is evidence. It also adds something something else to the puzzle for friends and family members who may be suspicious of someone.

ThinkHard had brought up a monster named John Regan. He makes me think of the kind of guy we’re looking at here, and the situation/young woman victim reminds me of VM. Regan is still in prison, went in in 2006 as a stalker/rapist. This occurred in Waterbury CT. His family was entrenched in the community as stand-up citizens. He was the proverbial hard working family man…wife was teacher, 3 children, worked for the family’s construction company in roofing, I think.

By the time he was arrested after a failed assault, he had been committing crimes against women over a span of over 25 years. An employee of a photo developing place/pharmacy also had called police because a man had turned in film taken of different women from weird angles...clearly stalking them.

I am taking this paragraph from a site. Link is below. John Regan got caught when, “…working on a family construction project, had removed the back seat of his van, laid down a blue tarp, and had pre-knotted ropes waiting to help secure his victim. Regan had parked his van so his sliding side door was lined up next to the driver's door of his intended target. When the girl went to her car Regan walked up behind her, wrapped one arm around her waist and covered her mouth with the other. When Regan began dragging her towards his trap, he got more than he bargained for. The 17-year-old girl is an elite athlete on the Saratoga Springs cross country team, which is the top ranked high school squad in the country. She fought like hell. When Regan covered her mouth she bite him, kicked him and screamed. She was able to get away and two adults immediately confronted Regan in the parking lot. He jumped into his van and fled, but the adults pursued him in their vehicles and contacted the local police via cell phone. Regan was pulled over and arrested minutes after the failed abduction attempt. Particularly chilling were the contents reported to be inside the back of the van. Some media outlets reported a blue tarp and a noose. Others reported pre-knotted ropes, a blue tarp, a bottle of liquor and a shovel. Yet others reported a blue tarp, ropes and a rake. He already stands accused of sexually assaulting three women in Waterbury, so it is not a quantum leap to believe that at a minimum he was intent on raping the girl. But the tarp and shovel hint at a possible more sinister conclusion to his plan. Only John Regan knows, and he's not talking. And within 48 hours of his arrest in New York he attempted to kill himself by hanging himself with a bed sheet.”

I wish they had let him. I think there are many more undocumented, unlinked crimes.
More details here:
https://www.janedoenomore.org/story/articles/95-1212005

All IMO, I see VM’s assault happening in a similar way. I think if she hadn’t been in a rural location like this, she might have had a shot. I think that was his SUV. I think he planned to grab her as Regan tried to above and get her in his vehicle. I don't think he wanted to kill VM there. Grab her there, yes. I think he had a knife (likely) with him or a gun, some kind of weapon. I think he went into this cocky, thinking no one would see or hear anything because it was so remote .No cameras around, for sure. She was also about 115 pounds, a small girl, so he planned on moving her/tossing her in the car like a feather. I think it is likely he pulled a knife or gun, gave a "Scream and I'll ..." kind of warning, and figured she'd acquiesce. I think he saw it going down as a blitz attack, throw her in the car, gone. The car offered some kind of shield from any passing cars.

But, she fought for her life. Hopefully, she got in some groin kicks, scratched his eyes and face. If she back head butted him, he might have gotten a bloody lip or nose, leaving his DNA on her head, immediately (one of the burned areas). I think he envisioned more submission and fear. As we know, Vanessa had taken self-defense lessons, and was the type of girl who thought about these things. She lived in NY. She traveled. She was no one’s dummy. She had more "informed fight" in her than he expected. She knew to get DNA. For the police to say scratches, she got his blood under her fingernails. She was bruised from trying to kick, knee, elbow the crap out of him, so he got bruised too. Not going have a semantics war, but they said scrapes and scratches. This makes me think about the knife. I think he may have cut his own hand, scraped his arm, etc. I think there was more of his own blood left that he’d considered. Of course, he left his skin cells, hair and likely semen. Put yourself in his shoes. Nervous, yet?
All that was needed for this to happen was 30 seconds. She had no chance against him because of her size and difference in upper body strength.

In terms of the shoe, it may have come off as he dragged her into the woods. He couldn't risk trying to force her into car, or her heading for the road. The only choice he had was to drag her fast into the woods. It wasn't his plan. I think he kept the weapon on her the whole time, which also made him think she would just comply. But, she didn’t. She made it difficult for him because she knew she had nothing to lose.

I don't think he worried much about technological issues. It is a rural, wooded area and I think this added to his sense of safety (lack of cameras, etc). I think he grabbed her phone when he got her down in the woods and tossed it aside. I’m sure he tried to turn it off.

When he left and “cleaned up” the area, he grabbed whatever he saw, including the phone, which I think he slid in his back pocket. He may have butt powered/ dialed while driving. IDK. I don’t see him driving away cool as a cucumber. I think he lost confidence. It didn't go as envisioned, which made him disorganized and angrier. He had basically just been in a physical fight, and knew his dna was everywhere. He also had to drive home beaten up, return to his life beaten up, which would add another complication he didn't expect.

Rocky, you had asked Forensics (I think), “The killer in your scenario drove over 3 miles with it turned on. Who would get in a vehicle, sit on a seat with a phone in their back pocket, and not know it's there?” Forensics, you had responded with something like “Not everyone is smart as you and me.”

IMO, I don’t think was about smarts. This is someone who had a lot of adrenaline pumping, who'd just raped and killed a girl outdoors on a Sunday afternoon with cars driving by. He had some of her items in his car. He was visibly wounded. He was likely more fixed on how to drive back into the flow of traffic and the flow of “normal life" - unseen.

Graphic language - warning:



I think the sexual assault was a mash-up, too. He may have tried to force her to orally sodomize him or he masturbated while being over her because vaginally it wasn’t working for him…whether it was clothing in the way, or she was too strong, or still kicking. Perhaps this was why he tried to burn her face/head or hair later if there was semen. Likely he dripped sweat on her, too. I think it genuinely wasn't clear to LE if she had been sexually assaulted, unlike with Karina Vetrano, the typical signs they are used to seeing with a sexual assault were present.
VM went through hell, but at least she gave him hell. As did Karina who also fought her attacker.

Anyhow, I think VM's killer strangled her at this point, knowing he had to deal with clean up and get out of there.

In terms of burning, I don’t see him as being a pyro. I think he had a lighter on him, maybe a smoker, and tried to get rid of dna on what she had been assailing him with – hands and feet. I just think it was part of the cleanup, but since it was so dry, he knew it could possibly get more out of hand and worried the smell of smoke would get attention. I equivocate on the fire element. He could have something in his truck that would do more burn-wise as part of a trade, but I’m not so sure. If I recall, Forensics said the trees had more of a rot/mold on them rather than burning. Forensics, if you're here - did you see any fire marks on the trees?

I just think it may have been on the spot thinking how to get rid of DNA and any evidence he could. The gravity of what he had just done, knowing his car is sitting on the side of the road...all of this just hasn't sat squarely with me when people have said he "took his time with her."

When leaving, I can’t imagine that he popped a uturn. Too noticeable. It could stop/slow down a car if there were any coming and of course the last thing he wants is to be seen by anyone. And, if a cop happened to come along, he could get pulled over for that alone. Why risk it?

One question I do have -- where most picture the car being – and parked facing north – does that offer him a good long view to see if cars are coming and going, or is there a curve that would impede his line of sight? If he had a clear, longish view both ways, that might make me more open to the u turn. Otherwise, I'd think he’d drive ahead as “normal.” I have not been on that road in a very, very long time. I can't picture that for the life of me.

For some reason, I think he went North to go South.

Lastly, was this opportunistic or planned? First, I do not see any relationship of any sort. I think the connection could have been he was just one of those random people we all have on the periphery of our lives -- someone we may small talk with once in a while out and about, someone we notice by face, but don't remember a name, a friend’s coworker/friend, a guy she’s run into at the store a few times, a guy, for example, who owns a small lawn biz that does pruning/weed pulling in the neighborhood. I am not talking about a gardener. I am talking about a service. None of these examples I am offering as what I am comfortable with -- just an example of the type of relationship I see. Someone she has, because of who she is as a person, has given a smile and genuinely friendly hello -- that she didn’t think about again, but he did. Someone who hears about her goings-on from one of her friends, a cousin, something like this. I think he knows when she comes home and when she returns. In this way, I believe there was a "plan"

I see him her age- 40, middle class, HS educated, works in something with his hands, successful in his way & smart, but not someone VM would be involved with. Whether she ever rebuffed an offer? I don’t think so. I just think he knew she’d never consider him. The anger was not at her, but it had to do with him, how he felt about himself, coupled with misogyny/possible issues in the past. I’m sure with past gfs he has showed angry behavior, been abusive. May have lost gfs due to this. I don’t see currently married. I do see some kind of substance issue, perhaps a stimulant.

I watched a video with an interview with a neighbor from way back. The woman said that she is a resident of Brooks Station Road and said State Police showed up at her doorstep around 1:30 a.m., asking whether she or her husband had seen anything unusual. She hadn’t, but said to the reporter that the large, wooded lots along the road make it easy to avoid notice.

She said, “I can see how, maybe, she was walking or jogging by one of these properties, or even in front of my house, and someone could grab her and bring her right into the woods."

At the end of the day, he was looking for a victim, not a fight. This caused some errors at the scene. I can only hope somehow his freaking DNA enters the system without another woman losing her life.

This is all my opinion, FWIW. which is worth less than a cup of coffee - gas station coffee, too, not S-Bucks or the like.

Thank you for the post. This is one of the most detailed I have read so far.
I have a few questions. I am not trying to "poke holes" in your story, but more so to make it all fit. The way you suggest it may have happened, could very well be the way it did. This is more to open it up for discussion.
1)I didn't read about the John Regan case, but you think the perp is the same type. To me, John Regan was confident,yet you don't seem to think this perp was.Why do you think that?
2) I do believe people saw the SUV parked along the road. Given the time frame, I don't think it was too many, and with the not really sparse, but light traffic on that road. Just how many out of those remembered it enough to report it?It was reported a dark colored SUV was parked along BSR around the time of the crime. To me, that seems very vague.
If LE said a dark maroon SUV was spotted at around 1:45 next to the entrance to the path, or after the guard rail. I'd put much more stock into that tip. I doubt LE was sending any kind of message to the perp, giving him a heads up in any way.
And then there is the million dollar question, that I have asked so many times, but still haven't got a response that would make sense... Why the random DNA search if LE is so sure about this SUV?
3)In your scanerio, you are using an abduction, and the perp is trying to get her in his SUV
Unless I misunderstood, VM ran into the woods after the fight near the SUV to get away on her own.
Why would he be dragging her, where she would lose one shoe?
4) I think the SUV would be parked facing north. There really isn't any other place that has enough opening to park off the road entirely except right after the guard rail and along the opening of the path, if I remember right.
It is not illegal to do a U turn there. Straight road in each direction to see. The chances of LE seeing him even if it was illegal is nill, because of the small police force being in that area at the exact time. A U turn there would be very simple due to the road being wide, especially if he started his turn from the shoulder. No "3" point turn, more turn the wheel to the left, and go.
5) If you are thinking this murder is planned, why would he drive north, then south on RT. 31, and drive past the Cam at the drive through facing the road at Barre Savings bank, when he can do a U turn, bypass the cam, and drive a shorter distance by 2 miles?
Even if it wasn't planned, most not only here, but FBI/StatePolice profilers think he is a "Local". He knew about that cam.
6)We are not sure VM took self defense classes. I agree she fought, but "if" she was strangled That may explain when the fighting took place. People will fight with all they have when they lose the oxygen supply.
Not playing semantics, just a reminder, although I am with you on the scratches, When LE reported he has scratches etc, He went back to correct himself, saying he "May" have cuts and scratches etc.
Again, That's a great post Mainely. I think that's enough questions for now.

 

[searunner]

Very nice detailed post by Mainely and some good questions by Rocky. I have thoughts to add to both, but will do when I have more time.

Wanted to jump in on one question of Rocky's now...

Re: "And then there is the million dollar question, that I have asked so many times, but still haven't got a response that would make sense... Why the random DNA search if LE is so sure about this SUV?"

As a preface, I'm not saying that LE is "so sure about this SUV." I think it's likely, but I am not fully convinced. As to your question, I don't see any inconsistencies. The vehicle he was driving might not be owned by him. So, for example, say there's an entire block of people in the vicinity and not one owns a dark SUV or a SUV at all -- and LE knows this before they've checked. LE would STILL want to get DNA from male occupants because one of those male occupants might have been driving someone else's dark SUV that day.

That said, I am with you on feeling that something seems off or not straightforward or something regarding the SUV. I don't know why it would take LE three mos to release that info. Good tips would likely be reported early on when people's memories are best. And I can't imagine why it would take so long to go through the tips, even if there's a 1,000 of them, especially given all the assistance the Princeton PD was supposedly receiving.

 

[ForensicMass]

The reason I was thinking both shoes were burned there, is because I would think if he burned her clothing, and one shoe, he was trying to rid the evidence. I can't think of a reason to go through with burning half only. That to me would be like trying to hide a body by burying it, but only burying it half in the ground.
One partially burned shoe is not only easy to explain, it tells me another thing.
One shoe is in the center of the fire, and the other is off to one side. Ever leave a fire unattended? The logs that were in the center of the fire are ash. The outer parts are not burned at all. The same could apply with the shoe.
That would also tell me that he lit the fire and left right away, leaving the fire unattended.If he hung around, he could have thrown the other shoe more in the center of the fire, once he saw it was only partially burned.
I know what you mean about the boot tips, however, those were boots, and you weren't "in" the fire. If you look at the photo I posted, the sole is fairly thin on the Nikes.
I have a older pair of Asics. Maybe I can do a little experiment and take pictures.
With you being an avid runner, what brand shoe do you think she wore? I know there is no way to tell for sure, but it was posted that she was on top in the fashion department. I'm not up on the latest and greatest as far as jogging goes.
In other words, I wouldn't do a reenactment of the JFK assassination using a Bow and Arrow.

All good thoughts. Nikes and new balance are popular brands, most female road runners I know wear nikes. There are lots of other higher end names and specialized names like Merrill, innov-8. Some of the shoes are minimalist about half of the mass of the normal running shoe. But these are really designed for running trails and I think more typical nike running shoe would be most likely

 

[Evey]

Yea semen blood and hair would be my guess of why but perhaps also some sort of fabric or something that would be specific to the person. As far as the shoe goes to me it sounds like it's farther from her like he got interuptted but that may be the wording. Maybe the killer had already left the body there but forgot her phone was on his home or car or whatever and then saw the aunt checking for her and was like oh **** gotta get rid of the phone.

 

[Evey]

Also that makes sense about the aunt I was reading it weird and thinking it meant it like she's the moms gf. That said where does her dad live? Cause could someone become obsessed with her via running near his home? I apologize if any of this double posts I'm having issues submitting things.

 

[Evey]

I like the idea of a melted shoe on site because it limits his risk, but they just don't melt that easily. I've melted the tips of my boots standing right at a massive bonfire. I DO think it could and would have been deformed. But I don't think there would be any question of whether it was there. I think a melted shoe remnant would be obvious. Also also, if one is melted into oblivion why is the other only "partially burned"?

I believe it could burn but don't feel like the time frame would have fully done so. But we don't know how long the fire went

 

[Evey]

The reason I was thinking both shoes were burned there, is because I would think if he burned her clothing, and one shoe, he was trying to rid the evidence. I can't think of a reason to go through with burning half only. That to me would be like trying to hide a body by burying it, but only burying it half in the ground.
One partially burned shoe is not only easy to explain, it tells me another thing.
One shoe is in the center of the fire, and the other is off to one side. Ever leave a fire unattended? The logs that were in the center of the fire are ash. The outer parts are not burned at all. The same could apply with the shoe.
That would also tell me that he lit the fire and left right away, leaving the fire unattended.If he hung around, he could have thrown the other shoe more in the center of the fire, once he saw it was only partially burned.
I know what you mean about the boot tips, however, those were boots, and you weren't "in" the fire. If you look at the photo I posted, the sole is fairly thin on the Nikes.
I have a older pair of Asics. Maybe I can do a little experiment and take pictures.
With you being an avid runner, what brand shoe do you think she wore? I know there is no way to tell for sure, but it was posted that she was on top in the fashion department. I'm not up on the latest and greatest as far as jogging goes.
In other words, I wouldn't do a reenactment of the JFK assassination using a Bow and Arrow.

I would say girls our age(or well I just turned 28) use Victoria secret sports bras and shorts or yoga pants and Nike ones also so in my mind she is wearing Nike and it's odd we never see anything say what she had on... even if she cared less about being sexy I still picture nike or adidas. But most girls I know love their tight yoga legging type jogging and yoga pants from Nike and VS. I mean she's worked hard for her body so I see her wanting to show it off and not wanting anything that would be awful in that heat. But she could be the opposite of me and most girls so idk. I wonder if they thought she went to the store because of her tracking of the phone? Maybe ahe hadnt actually started her jog yet.

 

[Evey]

So for me the dragnet says let's say there's an area with a lot of SUVs and they only have the SUV and DNA to go on so they figure the more men they eliminate the better but then let's say they have sons who would now be away at school or husbands or family who are out of town working or magically on vacation so they do the second one hoping they'd be home for the holidays. And then they can take note of who they haven't got and possibly what profession they do. To me it's process of elimination because they believe he lives near and believe he has an SUV. Maybe he rented it or stole it or it's work related or he's an über driver or someone's driver or works at a dealership etc or it's their family memebers who isn't home maybe they're in vacation or away for work and they were house sitting for them which btw would be a good place to use so your home doesn't have the evidence. I think the cops have a good idea and a handful of suspects that fit into this theory they have. And anyone who is still mia for the dragnets and still out of town is a bigger target for them likely. After all it would be smart to kill and then go away to college and maybe he even went to college in New York and stalked her there which if we find out KV and her are related then I could see that idea fitting well. They haven't said yes or no as far as the DNA matching so it's up in the air but I don't get why they aren't saying it isn't if it is indeed not so to me it says unsure.

 

[Evey]

Also the dragnet would show them if anyone in the home is acting off especially any that say no to it. Are there any other unsolved crimes like this? Maybe with or without fire and with or without them being a jogger but near and a pretty young brunette.

 

[ForensicMass]

To open, I haven’t yet given opinions about who this is, what happened, so this will be lengthy. I always think for as long as I need until I feel some spark of confidence about my ideas. In VM’s case, I have read daily since the start. If anyone is inclined to read this, I'd love some holes poked in my thinking.There will be flaws and inconsistencies, of course. I’m kinda human that way. The good thing is, the killer is also human (ugh, I hate to say that), but the good part is, he messes up, too. And, I think he did. I don’t think he is confident these days. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is one of those who finds a way to leave the area, even though his roots are there. (Yes, I see him as being from the area. I see no connection to Karina’s case in NY at all. Unfortunately, there are as many monsters as gumballs.) I do think LE put out thing about SUV bc enough people saw it, they think it's linked, and might send a message to the killer that there is evidence. It also adds something something else to the puzzle for friends and family members who may be suspicious of someone.

ThinkHard had brought up a monster named John Regan. He makes me think of the kind of guy we’re looking at here, and the situation/young woman victim reminds me of VM. Regan is still in prison, went in in 2006 as a stalker/rapist. This occurred in Waterbury CT. His family was entrenched in the community as stand-up citizens. He was the proverbial hard working family man…wife was teacher, 3 children, worked for the family’s construction company in roofing, I think.

By the time he was arrested after a failed assault, he had been committing crimes against women over a span of over 25 years. An employee of a photo developing place/pharmacy also had called police because a man had turned in film taken of different women from weird angles...clearly stalking them.

I am taking this paragraph from a site. Link is below. John Regan got caught when, “…working on a family construction project, had removed the back seat of his van, laid down a blue tarp, and had pre-knotted ropes waiting to help secure his victim. Regan had parked his van so his sliding side door was lined up next to the driver's door of his intended target. When the girl went to her car Regan walked up behind her, wrapped one arm around her waist and covered her mouth with the other. When Regan began dragging her towards his trap, he got more than he bargained for. The 17-year-old girl is an elite athlete on the Saratoga Springs cross country team, which is the top ranked high school squad in the country. She fought like hell. When Regan covered her mouth she bite him, kicked him and screamed. She was able to get away and two adults immediately confronted Regan in the parking lot. He jumped into his van and fled, but the adults pursued him in their vehicles and contacted the local police via cell phone. Regan was pulled over and arrested minutes after the failed abduction attempt. Particularly chilling were the contents reported to be inside the back of the van. Some media outlets reported a blue tarp and a noose. Others reported pre-knotted ropes, a blue tarp, a bottle of liquor and a shovel. Yet others reported a blue tarp, ropes and a rake. He already stands accused of sexually assaulting three women in Waterbury, so it is not a quantum leap to believe that at a minimum he was intent on raping the girl. But the tarp and shovel hint at a possible more sinister conclusion to his plan. Only John Regan knows, and he's not talking. And within 48 hours of his arrest in New York he attempted to kill himself by hanging himself with a bed sheet.”

I wish they had let him. I think there are many more undocumented, unlinked crimes.
More details here:
https://www.janedoenomore.org/story/articles/95-1212005

All IMO, I see VM’s assault happening in a similar way. I think if she hadn’t been in a rural location like this, she might have had a shot. I think that was his SUV. I think he planned to grab her as Regan tried to above and get her in his vehicle. I don't think he wanted to kill VM there. Grab her there, yes. I think he had a knife (likely) with him or a gun, some kind of weapon. I think he went into this cocky, thinking no one would see or hear anything because it was so remote .No cameras around, for sure. She was also about 115 pounds, a small girl, so he planned on moving her/tossing her in the car like a feather. I think it is likely he pulled a knife or gun, gave a "Scream and I'll ..." kind of warning, and figured she'd acquiesce. I think he saw it going down as a blitz attack, throw her in the car, gone. The car offered some kind of shield from any passing cars.

But, she fought for her life. Hopefully, she got in some groin kicks, scratched his eyes and face. If she back head butted him, he might have gotten a bloody lip or nose, leaving his DNA on her head, immediately (one of the burned areas). I think he envisioned more submission and fear. As we know, Vanessa had taken self-defense lessons, and was the type of girl who thought about these things. She lived in NY. She traveled. She was no one’s dummy. She had more "informed fight" in her than he expected. She knew to get DNA. For the police to say scratches, she got his blood under her fingernails. She was bruised from trying to kick, knee, elbow the crap out of him, so he got bruised too. Not going have a semantics war, but they said scrapes and scratches. This makes me think about the knife. I think he may have cut his own hand, scraped his arm, etc. I think there was more of his own blood left that he’d considered. Of course, he left his skin cells, hair and likely semen. Put yourself in his shoes. Nervous, yet?
All that was needed for this to happen was 30 seconds. She had no chance against him because of her size and difference in upper body strength.

In terms of the shoe, it may have come off as he dragged her into the woods. He couldn't risk trying to force her into car, or her heading for the road. The only choice he had was to drag her fast into the woods. It wasn't his plan. I think he kept the weapon on her the whole time, which also made him think she would just comply. But, she didn’t. She made it difficult for him because she knew she had nothing to lose.

I don't think he worried much about technological issues. It is a rural, wooded area and I think this added to his sense of safety (lack of cameras, etc). I think he grabbed her phone when he got her down in the woods and tossed it aside. I’m sure he tried to turn it off.

When he left and “cleaned up” the area, he grabbed whatever he saw, including the phone, which I think he slid in his back pocket. He may have butt powered/ dialed while driving. IDK. I don’t see him driving away cool as a cucumber. I think he lost confidence. It didn't go as envisioned, which made him disorganized and angrier. He had basically just been in a physical fight, and knew his dna was everywhere. He also had to drive home beaten up, return to his life beaten up, which would add another complication he didn't expect.

Rocky, you had asked Forensics (I think), “The killer in your scenario drove over 3 miles with it turned on. Who would get in a vehicle, sit on a seat with a phone in their back pocket, and not know it's there?” Forensics, you had responded with something like “Not everyone is smart as you and me.”

IMO, I don’t think was about smarts. This is someone who had a lot of adrenaline pumping, who'd just raped and killed a girl outdoors on a Sunday afternoon with cars driving by. He had some of her items in his car. He was visibly wounded. He was likely more fixed on how to drive back into the flow of traffic and the flow of “normal life" - unseen.

Graphic language - warning:



I think the sexual assault was a mash-up, too. He may have tried to force her to orally sodomize him or he masturbated while being over her because vaginally it wasn’t working for him…whether it was clothing in the way, or she was too strong, or still kicking. Perhaps this was why he tried to burn her face/head or hair later if there was semen. Likely he dripped sweat on her, too. I think it genuinely wasn't clear to LE if she had been sexually assaulted, unlike with Karina Vetrano, the typical signs they are used to seeing with a sexual assault were present.
VM went through hell, but at least she gave him hell. As did Karina who also fought her attacker.

Anyhow, I think VM's killer strangled her at this point, knowing he had to deal with clean up and get out of there.

In terms of burning, I don’t see him as being a pyro. I think he had a lighter on him, maybe a smoker, and tried to get rid of dna on what she had been assailing him with – hands and feet. I just think it was part of the cleanup, but since it was so dry, he knew it could possibly get more out of hand and worried the smell of smoke would get attention. I equivocate on the fire element. He could have something in his truck that would do more burn-wise as part of a trade, but I’m not so sure. If I recall, Forensics said the trees had more of a rot/mold on them rather than burning. Forensics, if you're here - did you see any fire marks on the trees?

I just think it may have been on the spot thinking how to get rid of DNA and any evidence he could. The gravity of what he had just done, knowing his car is sitting on the side of the road...all of this just hasn't sat squarely with me when people have said he "took his time with her."

When leaving, I can’t imagine that he popped a uturn. Too noticeable. It could stop/slow down a car if there were any coming and of course the last thing he wants is to be seen by anyone. And, if a cop happened to come along, he could get pulled over for that alone. Why risk it?

One question I do have -- where most picture the car being – and parked facing north – does that offer him a good long view to see if cars are coming and going, or is there a curve that would impede his line of sight? If he had a clear, longish view both ways, that might make me more open to the u turn. Otherwise, I'd think he’d drive ahead as “normal.” I have not been on that road in a very, very long time. I can't picture that for the life of me.

For some reason, I think he went North to go South.

Lastly, was this opportunistic or planned? First, I do not see any relationship of any sort. I think the connection could have been he was just one of those random people we all have on the periphery of our lives -- someone we may small talk with once in a while out and about, someone we notice by face, but don't remember a name, a friend’s coworker/friend, a guy she’s run into at the store a few times, a guy, for example, who owns a small lawn biz that does pruning/weed pulling in the neighborhood. I am not talking about a gardener. I am talking about a service. None of these examples I am offering as what I am comfortable with -- just an example of the type of relationship I see. Someone she has, because of who she is as a person, has given a smile and genuinely friendly hello -- that she didn’t think about again, but he did. Someone who hears about her goings-on from one of her friends, a cousin, something like this. I think he knows when she comes home and when she returns. In this way, I believe there was a "plan"

I see him her age- 40, middle class, HS educated, works in something with his hands, successful in his way & smart, but not someone VM would be involved with. Whether she ever rebuffed an offer? I don’t think so. I just think he knew she’d never consider him. The anger was not at her, but it had to do with him, how he felt about himself, coupled with misogyny/possible issues in the past. I’m sure with past gfs he has showed angry behavior, been abusive. May have lost gfs due to this. I don’t see currently married. I do see some kind of substance issue, perhaps a stimulant.

I watched a video with an interview with a neighbor from way back. The woman said that she is a resident of Brooks Station Road and said State Police showed up at her doorstep around 1:30 a.m., asking whether she or her husband had seen anything unusual. She hadn’t, but said to the reporter that the large, wooded lots along the road make it easy to avoid notice.

She said, “I can see how, maybe, she was walking or jogging by one of these properties, or even in front of my house, and someone could grab her and bring her right into the woods."

At the end of the day, he was looking for a victim, not a fight. This caused some errors at the scene. I can only hope somehow his freaking DNA enters the system without another woman losing her life.

This is all my opinion, FWIW. which is worth less than a cup of coffee - gas station coffee, too, not S-Bucks or the like.

More or less, this is just how I see it having gone down. I am VERY much in line with this. Couple notes-
The downed trees along the ground clearly had burns in he CS photos, but they were snow-covered upon my visit to the site. But i did observe the VERICAL trees which were reportedly burned and photographed. I saw a few dark round marks which had been suspected as burns by other folks here, and me as well. But these marks were just mold/mildew spots and not burns. So the fire appears to have been confined to the ground area.

Issues I've got in the theory: I don't see the phone being turned off and back on. I've never accidentally shut off or turned on my iPhone in my pocket. I think it was only powered off once. And for the exact reasons you mentioned numerous times in your theory-he was rushed and panicked. He was fighting with her when he pocketed the phone. Turning off a smart phone can take a few full seconds of depressing a button and then swiping "turn off" (with iPhone) or depressing a button for 1 second and the. Selecting the "turn off" button on an android. Both take some level of attention that he wasn't about to give in the middle of a violent struggle.

On his decision to kill her, which he made at some point, what was the motive?
Being very concerned with his DNA, it would seem his motive for killing may have been that he didn't want her to identify him later. And how would she have done so?

He lives close and could be spotted in the area again
Or
she recognizes him
Or
she saw his car and maybe he knows she might have gotten the license plate number
Or
?????

If he was random person from far away land it would seem he could have left her in woods alive and disappeared. Just a thought.

 

[Rocky1]

I find it odd that MSM puts all effort into relating VM with jogging, yet with the many pictures of her, not one wearing jogging clothes.