MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #7 *Arrest*

[Rocky1]

More or less, this is just how I see it having gone down. I am VERY much in line with this. Couple notes-
The downed trees along the ground clearly had burns in he CS photos, but they were snow-covered upon my visit to the site. But i did observe the VERICAL trees which were reportedly burned and photographed. I saw a few dark round marks which had been suspected as burns by other folks here, and me as well. But these marks were just mold/mildew spots and not burns. So the fire appears to have been confined to the ground area.

Issues I've got in the theory: I don't see the phone being turned off and back on. I've never accidentally shut off or turned on my iPhone in my pocket. I think it was only powered off once. And for the exact reasons you mentioned numerous times in your theory-he was rushed and panicked. He was fighting with her when he pocketed the phone. Turning off a smart phone can take a few full seconds of depressing a button and then swiping "turn off" (with iPhone) or depressing a button for 1 second and the. Selecting the "turn off" button on an android. Both take some level of attention that he wasn't about to give in the middle of a violent struggle.

On his decision to kill her, which he made at some point, what was the motive?
Being very concerned with his DNA, it would seem his motive for killing may have been that he didn't want her to identify him later. And how would she have done so?

He lives close and could be spotted in the area again
Or
she recognizes him
Or
she saw his car and maybe he knows she might have gotten the license plate number
Or
?????

If he was random person from far away land it would seem he could have left her in woods alive and disappeared. Just a thought.

I think the motive for killing may be everything you posted. I'd add two.
He planned on killing her in advanced, or he got carried away with the strangling (if he did) because that's satisfying to him.
I think the DNA cover up came after, and that was so either...
He was afraid his DNA would match in the system, (which we now know it isn't in the system)
He is concerned about future arrests and his DNA being identified then.
If it's a random person from far away, That would eliminate him having to know her schedule, but then we are back to square one with...

How did he know about the path?
Why not consider another woman in a more remote area, taking less chances?
As you say, why not leave her alive?

 

[ForensicMass]

Very nice detailed post by Mainely and some good questions by Rocky. I have thoughts to add to both, but will do when I have more time.

Wanted to jump in on one question of Rocky's now...

Re: "And then there is the million dollar question, that I have asked so many times, but still haven't got a response that would make sense... Why the random DNA search if LE is so sure about this SUV?"

As a preface, I'm not saying that LE is "so sure about this SUV." I think it's likely, but I am not fully convinced. As to your question, I don't see any inconsistencies. The vehicle he was driving might not be owned by him. So, for example, say there's an entire block of people in the vicinity and not one owns a dark SUV or a SUV at all -- and LE knows this before they've checked. LE would STILL want to get DNA from male occupants because one of those male occupants might have been driving someone else's dark SUV that day.

That said, I am with you on feeling that something seems off or not straightforward or something regarding the SUV. I don't know why it would take LE three mos to release that info. Good tips would likely be reported early on when people's memories are best. And I can't imagine why it would take so long to go through the tips, even if there's a 1,000 of them, especially given all the assistance the Princeton PD was supposedly receiving.

Yes, to the million dollar question the answer I see in summary is simply that there may not be an obvious connection between the SUV and the perp. And so DNA collection could still be worthwhile.

 

[ForensicMass]

I think the motive for killing may be everything you posted. I'd add two.
He planned on killing her in advanced, or he got carried away with the strangling (if he did) because that's satisfying to him.
I think the DNA cover up came after, and that was so either...
He was afraid his DNA would match in the system, (which we now know it isn't in the system)
He is concerned about future arrests and his DNA being identified then.
If it's a random person from far away, That would eliminate him having to know her schedule, but then we are back to square one with...

How did he know about the path?
Why not consider another woman in a more remote area, taking less chances?
As you say, why not leave her alive?

Good additions!

 

[Evey]

I wonder if her killer has any erectile issues or is very small so it seems like penatration happened but it barely did if at all. They'd be able to find traces of a a condom right? I think he finished on an area he burned and don't think forced oral unless she was dead cause teeth. And don't think he'd allow her hands to be free or near his parts. I think he burned the semen off and always planned to keep kill her cause she knew who he was. Maybe a neighbor a family friend of her parents or Ann aquitance she's met via friends or someone she's had class with or barely knew via school or someone she sees at a place she goes to and makes small talk with and could Id via that. And I wonder could he have quit the job soon afternoon or before? I also ponder a firefighter because they'd not want to set the forest on fire and smelling of smoke wouldn't be odd and May know of back roads or have the tools and the strength and seem harmless. Maybe a volunteer one that only lives there sometimes(I have a friend who lives in Portland but gets sent here for periods of time) or one in training. Most would trust one. What other jobs could be disarming? He seems the ted bundy type. As far as cameras I doubt I would know where all of them are but I think he would be driving like someone who's drunk driving and being very cautious safe and on edge taking back roads. That's why he forgot the phone until it rang(if in his car and not location) because I'm sure they kept calling it. So where on the routes we are considering him taking would he dispose of it? And do we think LE has it? If so Can they see where her or her phone traveled? Maybe via the running app? That would show where he got her potentially and if she was taken to some other spot first where that was. I mean wouldn't there be logging roads better for dumping a body? Leaving her there seems lazy cocky or rushed. Are there any areas near that have specific things that would need to be burned off her to make her less easy to trace him? If it wasn't all done there that is. Also I think he backed in the road and the cops maybe saw SUV tires and then got SUV reportes and put two and two together. He could have lurked just far enough back there or acted injured on the road etc cause he does seem like the bundy type to me. Jmo

 

[Evey]

I cringe as I say this but in a way trying to destroy DNA makes me think he plans to do it again and rather not have it connected if possible. Or at least via prints or semen etc and maybe he plans for the next girl to not be able to claw him and get his DNA to be compared to any past or present ones. He could be doing this for years already but this was the one time he underestimated a girl since he's become so cocky and because of that his DNA is now in the system so he will be very careful next time more prepared and that's awful to think about but in my opinion there will be more and perhaps he can only get off while strangling someone... I honestly doubt he got semen on her though but maybe in the ground or something he cleaned fast. And then did what someone who's been drinking does and be super cautious a s take backroads cops rarely travel which shows even more so being likely local. Though they have apps to tell you where cops are now days. Maybe he has a scanner in his vehicle? And while I wouldn't know where every camera in my town I'd do we think he was that prepared? And would he be driving in a baseball hat and sunglasses to hide himself? And maybe had a change of clothes in the car to make sure nothing from her was on him? He had to smell awful which is why I thought firefighter or something else that makes you smell of smoke if he isn't single that is. Cause if he's single it doesn't matter nobody would be home to know. But if a local maybe he went to his moms or someone's rather than home so he had an alaby or maybe he skipped town the second he was done. I think the dragnet is process of elimination of homes with suvs but by doing the whole area it won't raise a red flag but will help them see who's acting off and says no and who's never there somehow or away still because those all could be suspicious. And I'm guessing they could find a report of how many people live in each home family's wise so they'd know if a son wasn't there currently but would be back for a holiday. Maybe the parents would be like oh Timmy will be home for the holiday when they came by to get all the DNA. The parents could not suspect a thing if it's someone young. Parents can be oblivious to their kids dark sides or not want to believe it exists in my opinion. Not all parents but a lot.

 

[DeDee]

For a while now, I thought that VMs running shoe may have come off while she was being dragged into the path. Now I am not so sure, after thinking about it more.
I think the perp would have carried her into the woods, due to the extra time it would have taken him to drag the body over the log etc, increasing the chances of being seen by a passer by. So where is the missing shoe?
Below I posted a link. In this example, there is a picture of a running shoe that is melted without being exposed to any flame, just the heat from pavement.
The ambient temp that day was 106 degrees. That would make the pavement either side of 150 degrees at peak.
After looking at the picture, I think it is possible that the other shoe melted, with temps reaching 500 degrees plus, along with flame.
This to me anyway makes more sense, being one shoe was burned partially. Although there would have been a wad of melted shriveled rubber, it may have been buried in the ash and small enough that LE didn't know at the time MSM got the initial report. I doubt LE went through the fire at the very beginning, due to the heat. Just the heat of a clothes dryer would make a pair of sneakers shrink. JMO.
Make sense?

http://www.ecowatch.com/its-so-hot-in-texas-that-shoes-are-literally-melting-1882083385.html

So where is the missing shoe?

Either he took it when he left or it was burned in the fire.

a running shoe that is melted without being exposed to any flame, just the heat from pavement

I saw that and also looked at images of soldiers in Afghanistan who filmed the rubber tracks left from the hot soles of their boots on the concrete as they marched.
The image in your link shows the soles becoming unglued due to the heat of the sidewalk. VMs shoe was partially burned by fire.

This young pyro burns his sneakers.
[video=youtube;2HlvrXSHjGg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HlvrXSHjGg[/video]

 

[Rocky1]

Yes, to the million dollar question the answer I see in summary is simply that there may not be an obvious connection between the SUV and the perp. And so DNA collection could still be worthwhile.

I agree, Searunners' answer makes sense for that question . Now let's take the three collectively.
Why the random DNA search?
Why, as searunner mentioned, the three month wait, to release a tip they feel so strong about, knowing memories fade the longer time goes on? I agree with searunner 3 months is a long time to put the just the tips on the SUV together, knowing a killer is out there.
Why such vagueness in the tip after those 3 months?
Think having little else to go on, combined with pressure from the public, family, and the media, maybe they released that tip with even the slightest chance it may be helpful, because they are trying to restore public confidence that they are still hard at work on the case?

 

[ForensicMass]

I agree, Searunners' answer makes sense for that question . Now let's take the three collectively.
Why the random DNA search?
Why, as searunner mentioned, the three month wait, to release a tip they feel so strong about, knowing memories fade the longer time goes on? I agree with searunner 3 months is a long time to put the just the tips on the SUV together, knowing a killer is out there.
Why such vagueness in the tip after those 3 months?
Think having little else to go on, combined with pressure from the public, family, and the media, maybe they released that tip with even the slightest chance it may be helpful, because they are trying to restore public confidence that they are still hard at work on the case?

My best guess is this- they didn't want to chance erosion of the connection between the killer and the SUV. if they didn't mention it, maybe he wouldn't sell it, or wouldn't clean it, or wouldn't donate it, or would continue to use it. And if they mentioned it early on, he might have severed Or covered his ties with it ASAP, rendering it ineffective. But when they couldn't figure it out on their own after 3 months, all the could do was seek help from the public. Make any sense?

 

[Rocky1]

Either he took it when he left or it was burned in the fire.


I saw that and also looked at images of soldiers in Afghanistan who filmed the rubber tracks left from the hot soles of their boots on the concrete as they marched.
The image in your link shows the soles becoming unglued due to the heat of the sidewalk. VMs shoe was partially burned by fire.

This young pyro burns his sneakers.
[video=youtube;2HlvrXSHjGg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HlvrXSHjGg[/video]

Thanks DeDee. We are trying to determine if he took the shoe, or if it could be damaged enough in the fire to be unrecognizable as shoe, where as MSM reported only one half burned shoe being found.
Hard to believe in your video not only how fast and easy the shoe burned from just a lighter, but also how the sole lit so quickly and continued burning.
FM believes the sole although distorted some, will remain in shape enough to determine it is a sole from a shoe. I was not sure, hence the test I was going to do.
After seeing the Pyro in action, your video led me to another. I think it's clear now.
I'll post it below due to only one video allowed per post.

I think the only reason that second shoe partially burned, is because it was on top of a small log, and rolled off flame up, and went out.
I think both shoes were in that fire.
Thoughts?

 

[Rocky1]

Video of burning Adidas.
[video=youtube;O8R3zSN9Qoc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8R3zSN9Qoc[/video]

 

[Rocky1]

My best guess is this- they didn't want to chance erosion of the connection between the killer and the SUV. if they didn't mention it, maybe he wouldn't sell it, or wouldn't clean it, or wouldn't donate it, or would continue to use it. And if they mentioned it early on, he might have severed Or covered his ties with it ASAP, rendering it ineffective. But when they couldn't figure it out on their own after 3 months, all the could do was seek help from the public. Make any sense?

I would think it would be the other way around. Notify the public as fast as possible when it is fresh in everyones mind, raising awareness to anyone trying to sell, donate etc and putting the pressure on him to unload it fast.
What about the vague description? Does that show uncertainty?

 

[ForensicMass]

I would think it would be the other way around. Notify the public as fast as possible when it is fresh in everyones mind, raising awareness to anyone trying to sell, donate etc and putting the pressure on him to unload it fast.
What about the vague description? Does that show uncertainty?

Here's where I think the uncertainty is introduced- I think it was multiple witness accounts of an SUV but with inconsistent color description. One said black, one said blue, maybe one said maroon, maybe one said dark. To capture all the possibilities they only said dark. While they did speficy SUV instead of saying "car" or "truck" because of witness agreement on this aspect.

 

[DeDee]

Great post, Mainely16! Excellent! It is with respect that the context was snipped by me, for saving space purposes. However, it is strongly advised that everyone read Mainely16's post in its entirety.

At the end of the day, he was looking for a victim, not a fight. This caused some errors at the scene. I can only hope somehow his freaking DNA enters the system without another woman losing her life.

This is all my opinion, FWIW. which is worth less than a cup of coffee - gas station coffee, too, not S-Bucks or the like.

Grande Starbucks for you!

I don't think he wanted to kill VM there.

Impressive deductive reasoning as I always felt he was lying in wait for her at the guardrail near his vehicle. Do you suppose he had a way to secure her into the SUV with handcuffs or the like as he drove away, that is, had he been successful in getting her into the SUV?

All that was needed for this to happen was 30 seconds.

30 seconds to get VM from the road to the fire pit is what you mean? The rest of the crime not included in the 30s because way too much more was done before he could leave.

they said scrapes and scratches. This makes me think about the knife. I think he may have cut his own hand, scraped his arm, etc. I think there was more of his own blood left that he’d considered.

A knife is probable whereas a gun is not, jmho. I do agree he carried her by the waist with the other hand over her mouth so where was the knife at that point in time?

The only choice he had was to drag her fast into the woods. It wasn't his plan. I think he kept the weapon on her the whole time, which also made him think she would just comply. But, she didn’t.

Due to his unmatched strength, I believe he carried her along the cart path. Would the resistance be less hence, quicker? KV broke a tooth when taking a big bite out of her Perp so maybe VM bit her killer, too. It's plausible, along the cart path that she led, on foot, in front with him behind holding a knife in her back.

I think the sexual assault was a mash-up

Can. not. imagine. being. taken. and. raped. in. the. woods. until. death. UnSub likely had to at least pull his britches down for exposure. She was nude. He holds her wrists down. Spreads her legs with his legs, possibly while at the same time strangling [requires four minutes of steady pressure].

Regardless he badly burns this young lady.

I think he grabbed her phone when he got her down in the woods and tossed it aside. I’m sure he tried to turn it off.

The phone issue is still up in the air for me. I know she had it with her on the jog. My life would be more important that my phone though. So I'd drop it and use my hands for scratching and scraping but don't know what VM would do.

since it was so dry, he knew it could possibly get more out of hand and worried the smell of smoke would get attention. I equivocate on the fire element.

Positively, he did not desire a huge forest fire to be charged with arson on top of these other insidious charges. He just needed a bit of time to torture, enjoy the fire and burning process, or wanted to rid his touch on her body which did not work out in his favor.

I don’t see him driving away cool as a cucumber.

He may have been breathless but I don't think fear is one of his emotions.

It didn't go as envisioned, which made him disorganized and angrier.

I can envision anger occurring during the assault from both of them. VM hurt him badly enough for LE to mention it. What part did not go as he thought it would? The beginning when he failed to get her into his SUV? How did he know the cart path would be remote as it was?

he "took his time with her."

I agree that he did not spend much time "enjoying" each of the events. Maybe VMs fight took longer than expected. A sadist, as you know, is all about power and control and less about the sexual assault event.

I think he knows when she comes home and when she returns. In this way, I believe there was a "plan"

Yes, he had a fantasy and he planned it so he could make it happen.

VM was 27yo and your UnSub is 40 and an unmarried misogynist not in VMs circle but on the outer periphery. His anger was not aimed at specifically VM but caused by past events that made him psycho [my word]. It still must be considered the size and weight of the victim who was tiny who seemingly could easily be carried by a hulk.

It is still early in the investigation at five months. LE has much work to do. Does MA have Grand Juries?

 

[Rocky1]

Great post, Mainely16! Excellent! It is with respect that the context was snipped by me, for saving space purposes. However, it is strongly advised that everyone read Mainely16's post in its entirety.



Grande Starbucks for you!



Impressive deductive reasoning as I always felt he was lying in wait for her at the guardrail near his vehicle. Do you suppose he had a way to secure her into the SUV with handcuffs or the like as he drove away, that is, had he been successful in getting her into the SUV?


30 seconds to get VM from the road to the fire pit is what you mean? The rest of the crime not included in the 30s because way too much more was done before he could leave.


A knife is probable whereas a gun is not, jmho. I do agree he carried her by the waist with the other hand over her mouth so where was the knife at that point in time?



Due to his unmatched strength, I believe he carried her along the cart path. Would the resistance be less hence, quicker? KV broke a tooth when taking a big bite out of her Perp so maybe VM bit her killer, too. It's plausible, along the cart path that she led, on foot, in front with him behind holding a knife in her back.



Can. not. imagine. being. taken. and. raped. in. the. woods. until. death. UnSub likely had to at least pull his britches down for exposure. She was nude. He holds her wrists down. Spreads her legs with his legs, possibly while at the same time strangling [requires four minutes of steady pressure].

Regardless he badly burns this young lady.



The phone issue is still up in the air for me. I know she had it with her on the jog. My life would be more important that my phone though. So I'd drop it and use my hands for scratching and scraping but don't know what VM would do.


Positively, he did not desire a huge forest fire to be charged with arson on top of these other insidious charges. He just needed a bit of time to torture, enjoy the fire and burning process, or wanted to rid his touch on her body which did not work out in his favor.



He may have been breathless but I don't think fear is one of his emotions.



I can envision anger occurring during the assault from both of them. VM hurt him badly enough for LE to mention it. What part did not go as he thought it would? The beginning when he failed to get her into his SUV? How did he know the cart path would be remote as it was?



I agree that he did not spend much time "enjoying" each of the events. Maybe VMs fight took longer than expected. A sadist, as you know, is all about power and control and less about the sexual assault event.



Yes, he had a fantasy and he planned it so he could make it happen.

VM was 27yo and your UnSub is 40 and an unmarried misogynist not in VMs circle but on the outer periphery. His anger was not aimed at specifically VM but caused by past events that made him psycho [my word]. It still must be considered the size and weight of the victim who was tiny who seemingly could easily be carried by a hulk.

It is still early in the investigation at five months. LE has much work to do. Does MA have Grand Juries?

I'm trying to envision him waiting near the SUV. While he is standing there, is he looking at VM approaching. If so, Did she cross the road?

If he has a knife instead of a gun, why not stab her? If he has a gun, I can see him strangling her due to the noise.

Ah, the phone again, lol If she is wearing an armband to hold her phone, as some suggest, then I would think she didn't throw it, however...It was said that someone saw her talking on the phone, and if it's in an armband, how can this be? Without the phone up against her ear, how would they know she wasn't just singing a song to herself, especially if she was wearing ear buds? Was it reported she was wearing ear buds, or did everyone just assume that because most joggers do, and the experts said after the crime that women should not wear ear buds when they jog?

My thoughts are, facing life without parole, the last thing on his mind was being worried about an arson charge. I don't think he cared about setting the woods on fire. I think he lit it and left.

I can't speak for Mainely, but in her post I think she meant her age was from 27-40.

 

[DeDee]

Also that makes sense about the aunt I was reading it weird and thinking it meant it like she's the moms gf. That said where does her dad live? Cause could someone become obsessed with her via running near his home? I apologize if any of this double posts I'm having issues submitting things.

VM's parents are divorced. VM's mother, aunt and uncle live in their home on BSR. VM's father lives in a nearby town. VM and her father dined together on Saturday, the evening before her tragic demise.

 

[DeDee]

I find it odd that MSM puts all effort into relating VM with jogging, yet with the many pictures of her, not one wearing jogging clothes.

I have not gone through her SM accts. However, it appears VM was not a show-off type. There are not a bunch of selfies. What highlights the jogging aspect is because that is what she was doing, as was her habit, before departing for NYC.

I still have a hard time knowing it took her over five hours or thereabouts to arrive home from Princeton on these every other weekend visits.

 

[DeDee]

I'm trying to envision him waiting near the SUV. While he is standing there, is he looking at VM approaching. If so, Did she cross the road?

If he has a knife instead of a gun, why not stab her? If he has a gun, I can see him strangling her due to the noise.

Ah, the phone again, lol If she is wearing an armband to hold her phone, as some suggest, then I would think she didn't throw it, however...It was said that someone saw her talking on the phone, and if it's in an armband, how can this be? Without the phone up against her ear, how would they know she wasn't just singing a song to herself, especially if she was wearing ear buds? Was it reported she was wearing ear buds, or did everyone just assume that because most joggers do, and the experts said after the crime that women should not wear ear buds when they jog?

My thoughts are, facing life without parole, the last thing on his mind was being worried about an arson charge. I don't think he cared about setting the woods on fire. I think he lit it and left.

I can't speak for Mainely, but in her post I think she meant her age was from 27-40.

Yes, from near the SUV and the foliage coverage, where he was standing watching, waiting, he could see her but she could not see him watching her. You saw the height of the flowers and weeds from near the CS. They came up to the shoulders and heads of the Rescue Officers.

Yes, I do believe there was a SUV involved, per LEO. They asked for the public's help in this matter.

Yes, but I don't mean anything like a butcher knife. If he had a knife at all, it was a pocket knife. Don't most guys carry those? I don't think he had a gun at all. Either way, neither one, in jmho, was required for what happened to VM. In fact, I think he ran up behind her; grabbed her; carried her into the woods kicking and not screaming because his hand was covering her mouth or a hanky was placed in her mouth to silence her screams.

I only mentioned that blasted! phone because it was part of Mainely16's theory that UnSub placed it in his back pocket. Personally, I don't think he did because I do believe that LEO has her phone.

 

[Rocky1]

Yes, from near the SUV and the foliage coverage, where he was standing watching, waiting, he could see her but she could not see him watching her. You saw the height of the flowers and weeds from near the CS. They came up to the shoulders and heads of the Rescue Officers.

Yes, I do believe there was a SUV involved, per LEO. They asked for the public's help in this matter.

Yes, but I don't mean anything like a butcher knife. If he had a knife at all, it was a pocket knife. Don't most guys carry those? I don't think he had a gun at all. Either way, neither one, in jmho, was required for what happened to VM. In fact, I think he ran up behind her; grabbed her; carried her into the woods kicking and not screaming because his hand was covering her mouth or a hanky was placed in her mouth to silence her screams.

I only mentioned that blasted! phone because it was part of Mainely16's theory that UnSub placed it in his back pocket. Personally, I don't think he did because I do believe that LEO has her phone.

Interesting. If you believe he was in the tall grass, that means he had to be partially in the path set back away from the road. The grass along the road was only a few feet high. How was he sure there were no cars coming at the exact time VM walked by? you can't tell that far set back.
The phone.. I have more thoughts about the phone, but let me ask, what makes you think LE has it?
Where do you think they found it, and when?

 

[DeDee]

Video of burning Adidas.
[video=youtube;O8R3zSN9Qoc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8R3zSN9Qoc[/video]

This video frightens me. I'm reminded of Dylan Roof and that image of him in his backyard. :trout:

Coffee's on me!
:coffeecup: :coffeecup: :coffeecup: :coffeecup:​

 

[Rocky1]

This video frightens me. I'm reminded of Dylan Roof and that image of him in his backyard. :trout:

Coffee's on me!
:coffeecup: :coffeecup: :coffeecup: :coffeecup:​

I know who Dylan Roof is, but I haven't followed.
After I posted the video, "Socks" came to mind. All you see in this video is a cam pointing down towards feet.
In relation to the video, do you think the shoe could have burned enough in the fire not to be recognized?