MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #7 *Arrest*

[searunner]

Need to know level of confidence of perp being hispanic in order to eliminate other enthic possibilities/false positive - like "definitely hispanic" or "could be hispanic could be Filipino" or whatever.

pay attention to neighborhoods of perp ethnicity - do they cluster? Dense cluster? DMV records deep five for Worcester county. Media needs to carry this big time in the greater Worcester area. Just keep carrying the news. This case will be solved I believe.

dates and times of prior assaults: perhaps we can determine if perp holds a 9-5 job vs night job etc. do a teardown of what his likely profession is.

Some great thoughts, Cem. I see you have found out that Worchester has a big Hispanic population.

Given LE's statement, I'd guess their level of confidence that he's a light skinned Hispanic is pretty darn high. And the DNA phenotyping appears to be corroborating evidence, not sole evidence.

Excellent thought on the day of wk/time of day and work schedule bit. I had same one back when ForensicMass originally posted on the two attempted abductions. I'm sure the first two incidents occurred during a weekday and around midday. Just checked -- yes, they occurred on a Thursday -- first one around 10:30 am and the second one soon after while LE was investigating the first one. (Yes, extremely brazen!)

Vanessa's killing happened during a Sunday, so nothing the days of the week tell us re: a work schedule. But the first two incidents occurring midday on a weekday do *suggest* that those perps (two involved in one incident) don't work work more typical 9-5 jobs. Of course, there are days off and the like, but I'd still go with evening jobs or unemployed.


http://www.masslive.com/news/worcester/index.ssf/2016/06/men_try_to_abduct_women_in_sep.html

 

[ForensicMass]

Yes, I am so happy! I check this site almost daily, but didn't check yesterday.

Some progress! Fantastic! I want LE to get this/these *&^% off the streets and punish him/them mightily. I have believed all along that they will get this guy/guys -- and we're now closer to that.

ForensicMass, your original post on the possible connection between Vanessa's killing and the Northboro and Westborough attempted abductions was excellent -- as I said at the time. With the new info LE just released, it seems a possible connection is even more likely. I do agree with you that LE probably already knew the likely description of the killer from people seeing him in the dark SUV, so LE might not know anything new. BUT keep in mind that getting this info out to the public IS progress because it might lead to someone (like a neighbor or coworkers, etc.) calling in a tip.

Totally agree. And it helps steer me in the right direction research and thoughtwise. I feel like I have a better shot at cracking something apart if I know I'm in the right direction

 

[Cem75]

I suppose the good news is if it is the same perp it sounds likehe is local and not some transient

 

[ForensicMass]

I suppose the good news is if it is the same perp it sounds likehe is local and not some transient

And similarly we can rule out that it is some ultra local 19-year-old punk kid. And also that it is some brilliant google techie whiz- two theories that personally never resonated with me.

 

[searunner]

And similarly we can rule out that it is some ultra local 19-year-old punk kid. And also that it is some brilliant google techie whiz- two theories that personally never resonated with me.

Yes, we can. One other theory never resonated with me, either -- the upstanding citizen/quintessential family man who is middle aged. The new info from LE doesn't *completely* rule this theory out -- though it does rule out the age (40ish+) -- but I think we're going to see the simple and most straightforward profile play out -- someone not that well educated, low-level job, etc.

I keep thinking about the 30 mile thing – the same exact distance from downtown Worchester to the sites of the two attempted abductions and to Vanessa’s crime scene. It seems too coincidental to be coincidental. It struck me that way originally, as I said after your initial post on the abductions, but now with the phenotyping showing Vanessa’s killer likely matches the basic description provided by one of the women involved in one of the attempted abductions…

Laying that thought aside, I hope LE’s next move is familiar DNA testing. I believe LE would have to petition the state, so not as simple as doing the phenotyping. But if we’re talking about a guy based in Worchester, there seems a much higher probability that one of his relatives’ DNA could be in the systems than if we were talking about, say, that brilliant Google tech wiz.

I really wish we had access to good data. Have just been itching to get my hands on data.

 

[searunner]

I'm not saying that the killer lives in Worcester, but based on the high percentage of Hispanic people living in that city (20.8%) versus the extremely low percentages living in the smaller towns around Princeton (2.6% for Holden, for instance), it sees a fairly good probability. (Though I know there are some other bigger towns/cities that are possibilities, too.) So, I thought I'd check to see just how big the potential pool of perps is if, indeed, he does live in Worchester. I am actually harkened by my findings -- as IF he does live in Worchester, LE is going to get him.

The following info comes from this site:
http://www.towncharts.com/Massachusetts/Demographics/Worcester-city-MA-Demographics-data.html. Its info comes from the latest census data. The numbers, of course, will be somewhat low since everyone isn't counted in censuses, but should still be decent.

Worchester population: 183,383. Relevant data: Hispanics 20.8%; males: 49%; males who are single 58% (my guess is that he's single); single men by age - 17% ages 25-29 and 11% 30-34 (so this is a 0.28 multiplication factor) = 3,035. I think I calculated ok -- though am quite tired, so someone can correct me if I'm wrong. (It comes out to 5,233 if we exclude the marital status.)

I personally don't think a potential suspect pool (again, IF the perp lives in Worchester -- just one theory) of just over 3K men (or 5,233, excluding the marital status) seems insurmountable -- and this is before drilling down using data we don't have. We can't know for sure if the dark SUV is owned by the killer, though it seems probable. That vehicle ownership data should be able to narrow the pool down quite a bit (though not for sure). I'd also venture to bet that a 30ish-yr-old man who commits such a horrific and brazen act does not have pristine background. Sure, he hasn't been convicted of committing the types of crimes that would involve his DNA being taken, but there are all types of other possibilities..."petty crimes" (hate that term because so-called petty crimes often seem to lead to more serious ones), or even just traffic violations or summonses.

One last thought -- the athletic build is something else to go on. Most of us on the site already came to the conclusion the monster is likely in good shape/athletic, but we now have that info coming from LE. He probably either stays in shape due to having some type of physical job or works out in some way. Not necessarily, of course, as some people have natural athletic builds, but most have to do something to maintain them, at least past a certain age. So the build info might spark some tips.

 

[Cem75]

I'm not saying that the killer lives in Worcester, but based on the high percentage of Hispanic people living in that city (20.8%) versus the extremely low percentages living in the smaller towns around Princeton (2.6% for Holden, for instance), it sees a fairly good probability. (Though I know there are some other bigger towns/cities that are possibilities, too.) So, I thought I'd check to see just how big the potential pool of perps is if, indeed, he does live in Worchester. I am actually harkened by my findings -- as IF he does live in Worchester, LE is going to get him.

The following info comes from this site:
http://www.towncharts.com/Massachusetts/Demographics/Worcester-city-MA-Demographics-data.html. Its info comes from the latest census data. The numbers, of course, will be somewhat low since everyone isn't counted in censuses, but should still be decent.

Worchester population: 183,383. Relevant data: Hispanics 20.8%; males: 49%; males who are single 58% (my guess is that he's single); single men by age - 17% ages 25-29 and 11% 30-34 (so this is a 0.28 multiplication factor) = 3,035. I think I calculated ok -- though am quite tired, so someone can correct me if I'm wrong. (It comes out to 5,233 if we exclude the marital status.)

I personally don't think a potential suspect pool (again, IF the perp lives in Worchester -- just one theory) of just over 3K men (or 5,233, excluding the marital status) seems insurmountable -- and this is before drilling down using data we don't have. We can't know for sure if the dark SUV is owned by the killer, though it seems probable. That vehicle ownership data should be able to narrow the pool down quite a bit (though not for sure). I'd also venture to bet that a 30ish-yr-old man who commits such a horrific and brazen act does not have pristine background. Sure, he hasn't been convicted of committing the types of crimes that would involve his DNA being taken, but there are all types of other possibilities..."petty crimes" (hate that term because so-called petty crimes often seem to lead to more serious ones), or even just traffic violations or summonses.

One last thought -- the athletic build is something else to go on. Most of us on the site already came to the conclusion the monster is likely in good shape/athletic, but we now have that info coming from LE. He probably either stays in shape due to having some type of physical job or works out in some way. Not necessarily, of course, as some people have natural athletic builds, but most have to do something to maintain them, at least past a certain age. So the build info might spark some tips.

good post - just based on odds, it is more likely he lives in Worcester, but not a slam dunk.

can they cross reference his DNA with Worcester County DNA to hopefully trigger a relative hit? I suppose they have already done this, perhaps.

Too bad the other incidents took place during weekdays during daylight - this sick monster should be fried.

 

[searunner]

good post - just based on odds, it is more likely he lives in Worcester, but not a slam dunk.

can they cross reference his DNA with Worcester County DNA to hopefully trigger a relative hit? I suppose they have already done this, perhaps.

Too bad the other incidents took place during weekdays during daylight - this sick monster should be fried.

Yeah, certainly agree it's not a slam dunk -- far from it. I was more interested in kinda seeing for myself what the numbers look like. The same type of exercise would be applicable to other towns/cities. The good news -- if we can call it that -- is that he is Hispanic since the area in general is overwhelmingly white. So the potential pool of suspects is at least narrower this way.

As to your question, no, I don't think they have compared his DNA as you described. I think we would probably see that in the news. Familiar DNA matching has only been used in something like 12-13 (don't quote me on numbers, but this range should be close, per my memory) states. California is one of them. I don't think Mass. is one of them, but will need to verify. It seems that generally the local LE need to petition the state to get approval for this type of matching. I think it's just a matter of time, however, that we see it become widespread. Let's hope so. The good news is that only Maryland explicitly forbids this type of matching be used (at least that was the case not too long ago, may have changed).

 

[Dollcat]

Does not seem to fit the killer's description in VMs murder whom LEO feels is Hispanic; although, he does have short cropped hair.

Westborough Suspect Sketch

http://www.masslive.com/news/worcester/index.ssf/2016/06/police_release_sketch_of_suspe.html

In this pic above, this appears to look like an African American male not Hispanic /Latino. JMO

 

[sleuthtime]

that could deifnitely be a hispanic male

have they confirmed though that they are likely linked or are we just assuming , obviously it does make sense to assume

lucky for the first 2 women they were able to escape

 

[sleuthtime]

how far apart were the attempts the first 2 attempts from each other and from vanessa

were there any other attempts in between


so its likely vanessa was killed by 2 people?

 

[Cem75]

If its the same perp as Northborough and other incident, those local LE folks had better be burning the midnight oil because they have just as much invested in solving this case. It would make me sick to my stomach if we learn some shoddy police work in these two other cases allowed for the VM tragedy.

 

[Blackcurrant]

I wonder if this could have been gang related. Maybe part of gang initiation. The attacker in the Westboro & Northboro incidents had a 2nd person with him... So makes me wonder if this was a gang thing and if it was then could be same in Vanessa's case. Also the attacker might live in the north eastern corner of Worester... That location wouldn't be far from either Westboro or Princeton.

 

[Ragamuffingunner]

I was thinking the same thing. Great Brook Valley housing complex is infested with gangs.

 

[Coleraine]

that could deifnitely be a hispanic male

have they confirmed though that they are likely linked or are we just assuming , obviously it does make sense to assume

lucky for the first 2 women they were able to escape

I haven't seen any confirmation that LE is linking them. Wish reporters would have asked. It does seem likely, though, that LE has been looking at a possible link since Vanessa's murder. There was a local poster, "junebug85" that brought up the possibility of a connection just a few days after her murder in the first thread here, so it seems obvious that local LE would have thought of it, too.

 

[Aleph]

Is there any history of gang initiations consisting of attacking, raping and killing female joggers? That doesn't sound right to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Blackcurrant]

Aleph, you're right, in that murders don't seem like gang initiation. I was thinking maybe the intent was rape and the murder was unplanned. Could have gotten enraged and killed. Also may just be gang related but not necessarily initiation. Maybe the murderer got dropped off and the driver drove around and picked him up later. Maybe they got picked up on another road and cut through the woods and dropped her phone on the way near the restaurant. I don't know.

 

[masscoast]

How easy or difficult is it for LE to check for cell phones that were "in the area" at each of those incidents on those certain dates? Look for same phone within reach of closest cell tower in August in Princeton and also on June 23 within closest cell tower in westborough/northboro.

 

[junebug85]

I haven't seen any confirmation that LE is linking them. Wish reporters would have asked. It does seem likely, though, that LE has been looking at a possible link since Vanessa's murder. There was a local poster, "junebug85" that brought up the possibility of a connection just a few days after her murder in the first thread here, so it seems obvious that local LE would have thought of it, too.

yeah, I've been banging that drum for a while. It's always bothered me.

 

[Coleraine]

Another article about the Feb. 23 press conference. Nothing new, I believe. The article did note that Early "would not say if Marcotte was specifically targeted, nor exactly where the DNA was collected."

The article also quotes from the family statement at the press conference that Vanessa "went for a walk on the lovely afternoon of Aug. 7, 2016." Again, that discrepancy between "run" and "walk." It doesn't necessarily mean anything but I thought it was interesting.

http://www.leominsterchamp.com/articles/dna-yields-new-clues-in-vanessa-marcotte-murder-case/