Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #19

[Victoria Chambers]

That doesn't really answer any of the questions I posed though. The parents still holding out hope is neither here nor there in that it's extraneous.

The answer is, until OG are satisfied with whatever they are presented with as being proof of death They will go on treating it as a missing person case. They have not seen anything that proves MM is deceased and for that reason they would not mention even the likelihood of her being dead to the McCanns. And despite Germany announcing earlier in the year that they had proof MM was murdered, they have yet to reveal what they have found. I can't see Germany having lied about their findings but we have no choice but to wait and see

 

[Dlk79]

The bit (well one of the many bits) I find peculiar is that OG is still calling this a 'missing person's enquiry'.

Is it possible that they're still not privvy to the Germans' findings? And/or are they privvy to them but not convinced by them? Or is it that they need 'physical evidence (eg. remains) in order to publicly amend the nature of their enquiry? And if so, does that then imply the Germans don't have evidence of that nature?

It seems unlikely to me that two such high profile investigating teams would not be liaising with each other as regards such a sensitive issue...

German LE stated they had evidence that MM was dead back in June but could not divulge the evidence. They were quite clear that although there were collaborative efforts ongoing between the different forces, not all their evidence had been shared with OG, PJ or the McCanns.

I haven't seen anything else to suggest that hidden evidence has since been shared. And I don't see any reason why OG would change its narrative from a missing persons case without evidence of MM's death, which appears to be the evidence the BKA are sitting on. Frankly, I'd be more surpsired if OG DID convert to a murder inquiry while German LE are still concealing the evidence of death from them.

With all the millions spent and the political implications it would incur, why would they turn around and change their position at this stage? There's nothing really to be acheived from it (even if they were privy to some of the evidence of death). And whilst the German LE are adamant in their conviction, they also admit to having insufficient evidence to charge their man at this point. Until they do, it makes sense OG would maintain their narrative, if nothing but for the sake of the McCann's continued hope which, lets face it, is why OG is even still going.

 

[ChatteringBirds]

It's just my opinion but I don't think it's likely CB would have been named based on witness testimony. Why would they have literally named him based on hearsay?

They must have some more pieces of the puzzle to take this risk. Physical evidence.

Publically naming him and saying they don't believe she's alive would be absurd if they didn't.
All IMO.

 

[mrjitty]

It's just my opinion but I don't think it's likely CB would have been named based on witness testimony. Why would they have literally named him based on hearsay?

They must have some more pieces of the puzzle to take this risk. Physical evidence.

Publically naming him and saying they don't believe she's alive would be absurd if they didn't.
All IMO.

Why is witness testimony hearsay?

Confession evidence is commonly used.

 

[mrjitty]

What if there is forensic evidence of the suspect in 5A? In a apartment, maybe cadaver dogs had been barking. An apartment, maybe the victim had been alone for 30-60 minutes, alone with a paedo.

HCW assumed, MM died in Portugal. There are theories, that suggest MM died in the apartment, right? What if both theories are right?

I've made this point before, but HCW actually does have forensic support already for the idea MM died in the apartment. I suspect it forms part of his theory of the case.

Recall that the blood dog indicated on the tiles and behind the sofa in 5A. Based on the indications, forensics then recovered samples from those sites. Sadly the samples were too degraded to met requirements under Portugal law. But you can still make the circumstantial argument. Namely that a dog trained to locate blood, indicated, and then traces likely to be blood were recovered there.

Perhaps this is where more advanced analysis or retesting (if possible) of the samples could assist. But we should recognise that this is an argument HCW can already make in Court to support other evidence he may have.

Does it proof MM's abduction or murder by a suspect at a day MM vanished BARD?. Why is HCW keen on that ominous call?

We always go round in circles as to what else he has. I suspect he will never put CB in 5A forensically. But he may not need to.

 

[Newthoughts]

The bit (well one of the many bits) I find peculiar is that OG is still calling this a 'missing person's enquiry'.

Is it possible that they're still not privvy to the Germans' findings? And/or are they privvy to them but not convinced by them? Or is it that they need 'physical evidence (eg. remains) in order to publicly amend the nature of their enquiry? And if so, does that then imply the Germans don't have evidence of that nature?

It seems unlikely to me that two such high profile investigating teams would not be liaising with each other as regards such a sensitive issue...

German LE have said they were not sharing info with other forces at the moment. Something about protecting the investigation.

That is why I'm certain German LE must have something pretty damning because, even tho I'm sure they all think she's dead, OG are sticking to the known fact that she's missing person. CB could have very easily been named as of interest in her disappearance.

 

[mrjitty]

German LE have said they were not sharing info with other forces at the moment. Something about protecting the investigation.

That is why I'm certain German LE must have something pretty damning because, even tho I'm sure they all think she's dead, OG are sticking to the known fact that she's missing person. CB could have very easily been named as of interest in her disappearance.

As I recall, there have been indications that OG is pretty much a murder investigation, regardless of the official line.

 

[Newthoughts]

I've made this point before, but HCW actually does have forensic support already for the idea MM died in the apartment. I suspect it forms part of his theory of the case.

Recall that the blood dog indicated on the tiles and behind the sofa in 5A. Based on the indications, forensics then recovered samples from those sites. Sadly the samples were too degraded to met requirements under Portugal law. But you can still make the circumstantial argument. Namely that a dog trained to locate blood, indicated, and then traces likely to be blood were recovered there.

Perhaps this is where more advanced analysis or retesting (if possible) of the samples could assist. But we should recognise that this is an argument HCW can already make in Court to support other evidence he may have.



We always go round in circles as to what else he has. I suspect he will never put CB in 5A forensically. But he may not need to.

Given what we now know of CB the best we can hope for is that he accidentally killed her in the apartment.

But Blood is not uncommon where there are young children. If it could be linked to MM it could have been from anything. If it were significant it would also suggest someone had spent time cleaning it up if it wasn't immediately apparent to anyone afterwards. Plus unless it was his blood there are no links to him.

Likewise the cadaver dog - it also identified the McCanns car. They were both Drs - death a regular part of their jobs. Nothing to link to CB

So unless improvements in testing have shown something I don't think that would stand up in court

 

[MENDEL]

In a child abduction the crucial moment is get out of scene ASAP. I can't imagine how she could have died under those circumstances. Even if conceding she accidentally did under some unlikely hypothetical scenario, I see no plausible reason why not leaving the body behind.

 

[MENDEL]

I've made this point before, but HCW actually does have forensic support already for the idea MM died in the apartment. I suspect it forms part of his theory of the case.

Recall that the blood dog indicated on the tiles and behind the sofa in 5A. Based on the indications, forensics then recovered samples from those sites. Sadly the samples were too degraded to met requirements under Portugal law. But you can still make the circumstantial argument. Namely that a dog trained to locate blood, indicated, and then traces likely to be blood were recovered there.

Perhaps this is where more advanced analysis or retesting (if possible) of the samples could assist. But we should recognise that this is an argument HCW can already make in Court to support other evidence he may have.



We always go round in circles as to what else he has. I suspect he will never put CB in 5A forensically. But he may not need to.

I don't know which kind of support Braunschweig LE has apart from 4 witnesses they confessed to have (is the illegal whistle-bloater included here?), but I guess something happened in early June this year for LE to name CB publicly after 3 years under anonymity.

 

[MENDEL]

Can you please help me clear something up in my own mind? From what I understand it seems clear that we are aware of four videos.

Two of these, young German girl and older (probably Italian) lady were destroyed by MS and HB.

Female (Irish) HB has stated that the offender in her case recorded it.

The DM case (72 year-old American woman) occurred in 2005. Does this footage still exist? I think I recall the statement about removing of the mask coming from the supposed bar confession - as others have sleuthed, this confession was probably cover for male (German) HB’s statement. I just don’t know if I think this footage from 2005 still exists, wouldn’t it likely have been with the camera and other paraphernalia that MS and HB destroyed in 2006?

Further, is there actually any video footage we know of that definitely still exists which we can link to a specific crime?

ETA: I forgot the footage of his abuse of his ex-girlfriend’s daughter (sick twisted unit). But, would like input on the above if possible.

The videos were quite likely recorded in tapes at the time (HB said he stole a camera). The camera was probably sold and it's improbable HB would keep the tape after all this years and it wasn't played in court in December 2019 (where there were HB and MS as witnesses).

So I think what happened was that HB confessed what he saw in the recording and gave as many details as possible to LE. After that, BKA must have requested PJ to review all rapes committed in Algarve before April 2006 that might match. Maybe PJ could single out more than one, out of which DM's case had evidence connected to CB (a hair recovered from her sheets).

 

[enjy15]

In a child abduction the crucial moment is get out of scene ASAP. I can't imagine how she could have died under those circumstances. Even if conceding she accidentally did under some unlikely hypothetical scenario, I see no plausible reason why not leaving the body behind.

Perhaps putting his hands over her mouth to stop her screaming and doing so he accidentally kills her? Unsure why he would take the body though. It is more likely her death was after.

 

[MENDEL]

I think that unlikely unless he accidentally covered mouth and nostrils effectively for long enough, enjy.

 

[axelcruze]

In a child abduction the crucial moment is get out of scene ASAP. I can't imagine how she could have died under those circumstances. Even if conceding she accidentally did under some unlikely hypothetical scenario, I see no plausible reason why not leaving the body behind.

Didn't want to leave His prints on the body? why leave evidence behind when can take it, and in 2007 i doubt they knew how fast tech would accelerate, CB would have been used to leaving nothing behind in his burgling past. The more i think about this case, it is possible the blood in the apartment - and on the wall/pathway? is somehow connected with CB and possibly doing something in that apartment. Was MM checked properly when she was in bed. Could have been in the room for sometime during and inbwteen checking

 

[peanutJelly]

In a child abduction the crucial moment is get out of scene ASAP. I can't imagine how she could have died under those circumstances. Even if conceding she accidentally did under some unlikely hypothetical scenario, I see no plausible reason why not leaving the body behind.

Depends if her body would likely hold any of his DNA

 

[Newthoughts]

Perhaps putting his hands over her mouth to stop her screaming and doing so he accidentally kills her? Unsure why he would take the body though. It is more likely her death was after.

I think that would be the only way she could have died in the appt. I don't think it happened that way either but if it had I think he'd take the body to hide evidence.

 

[redplanet]

I think that unlikely unless he accidentally covered mouth and nostrils effectively for long enough, enjy.

Maybe intruder was inside the apartment and was interrupted by the arrival of a checker (either MO or KM) and he hid somewhere within the apartment while maintaining silence by placing hand over mouth until the checker departed?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

The videos were quite likely recorded in tapes at the time (HB said he stole a camera). The camera was probably sold and it's improbable HB would keep the tape after all this years and it wasn't played in court in December 2019 (where there were HB and MS as witnesses).

So I think what happened was that HB confessed what he saw in the recording and gave as many details as possible to LE. After that, BKA must have requested PJ to review all rapes committed in Algarve before April 2006 that might match. Maybe PJ could single out more than one, out of which DM's case had evidence connected to CB (a hair recovered from her sheets).

Thanks for the response. What seems unusual to me though is that he didn’t face trial for either of the rapes in the known video footage - the video HB and MS viewed.

When I posted this I had in mind HCW’s certainty that MM was dead. From what I understand, neither the young German girl nor the older Italian woman have come forward or been traced. While I know this is not uncommon in rape cases, it’s also a possibility that they are deceased.

CB has been linked to other murders and missing children. German LE had him under surveillance and followed him to the Dutch border (What kind of criminal gets this attention?). I guess I’m putting a few things together here but is HCW sure he killed MM because they have evidence he’s done it before, perhaps several times?

 

[peanutJelly]

Thanks for the response. What seems unusual to me though is that he didn’t face trial for either of the rapes in the known video footage - the video HB and MS viewed.

When I posted this I had in mind HCW’s certainty that MM was dead. From what I understand, neither the young German girl nor the older Italian woman have come forward or been traced. While I know this is not uncommon in rape cases, it’s also a possibility that they are deceased.

CB has been linked to other murders and missing children. German LE has him under surveillance and followed him to the Dutch border (What kind of criminal gets this attention?). I guess I’m putting a few things together here but is HCW sure he killed MM because they have evidence he’s done it before, perhaps several times?

I have considered the same thing. HCW has said it’s a puzzle, and that when you put the pieces together MM being deceased is the most likely outcome. He hasn’t said this flippantly IMO it’s based on things he has seen. Unfortunately snuff films were very much a DW thing at this time, like others have said here it may be preferable that MM died during an interrupted burglary

IMO German LE are working on probability, whereas SY are still waiting for factual evidence

 

[Loobyloo]

I think that unlikely unless he accidentally covered mouth and nostrils effectively for long enough, enjy.

Also, even if that was the case, it wouldn't leave blood traces.