Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #20

[Victoria Chambers]

It is interesting they are confident of the death, but the abuse is only listed as a suspicion. One possibility for that is that HB states CB told him both those things happened but BKA have only verified the death part of it by other means, possibly a photo or video. If there is a video, HCWs comment does add further weight to the theory of her dying in 5A. Given CB's previous, he surely would have also filmed the abuse if he was able to, not just evidence of death.

One thing has got me thinking with regards to whether BKA think MM died in 5A. That is, under that narrarive they wouldn't really technically be able to refer to MM's disappearance as an "abduction" or "kidnapping" if she was already dead before being taken from the apartment. I've been looking back through all HCWs quotes and the interviews I can find and I can't locate a single instance where he references a word like that. He only ever talks about a murder. Even in among all the appeals, they talk about trying to find where MM's body was disposed of but never about trying to find where she was actually killed. Is this because they believe they already know where?

I'm happy to be proved wrong on this, but can anyone else find any direct quotes from HCW where he uses the words 'kidnap' or 'abducted'? Or anything else he has said to suggest MM left that apartment alive?

As for your question as to what the intruder do next, it would seem their priority would have been to hide the evidence. Hard to know exactly what would go through the mind of someone who has just done something like that. What I would say is it would be far easier to remove, transport and conceal that body than if they were alive.

But consider that we know there was no major trauma occurred in the room, no evidence on the pillow etc of smothering. To use your bare hands in the taking of anothers life is not something that is completed in seconds. It takes time and is way more risky with regards to him being discovered. The evidence or rather 'lack-of' suggests MM was in bed 1 minute and not the next. Gone, just like that X

 

[redplanet]

It is interesting they are confident of the death, but the abuse is only listed as a suspicion. One possibility for that is that HB states CB told him both those things happened but BKA have only verified the death part of it by other means, possibly a photo or video. If there is a video, HCWs comment does add further weight to the theory of her dying in 5A. Given CB's previous, he surely would have also filmed the abuse if he was able to, not just evidence of death.

One thing has got me thinking with regards to whether BKA think MM died in 5A. That is, under that narrarive they wouldn't really technically be able to refer to MM's disappearance as an "abduction" or "kidnapping" if she was already dead before being taken from the apartment. I've been looking back through all HCWs quotes and the interviews I can find and I can't locate a single instance where he references a word like that. He only ever talks about a murder. Even in among all the appeals, they talk about trying to find where MM's body was disposed of but never about trying to find where she was actually killed. Is this because they believe they already know where?

I'm happy to be proved wrong on this, but can anyone else find any direct quotes from HCW where he uses the words 'kidnap' or 'abducted'? Or anything else he has said to suggest MM left that apartment alive?

As for your question as to what the intruder do next, it would seem their priority would have been to hide the evidence. Hard to know exactly what would go through the mind of someone who has just done something like that. What I would say is it would be far easier to remove, transport and conceal that body than if they were alive.

A very good examination Dlk79, I agree that HCW appears confident of death yet merely suspicious of abuse, and possibly may be avoiding terms such as abduction or kidnapping, and does not appear to be trying to find the primary crime scene at any other location.

 

[Newthoughts]

Interesting analysis.
BTW HCW sounds like IMO he may be unsure whether the "abused" section even happened. Let's hope it didn't.
My question is: if death-in-apartment is what happened, what would the intruder do next?

IMO taking the body would be his first and most sensible option as it would be a major piece of evidence. We already know from Tannerman and Smithman that nobody would really stop somebody carrying what would look like a sleeping child.

After that we're back to exactly the same issue that we have in all scenarios - what did he do next

 

[Chiatos]

I think there may be confusion here relating to what you are terming the 'patio door'. The patio doors are the sliding doors that face the pool side of the building. These were unlocked and can be opened from outside. The door that faces onto the car park is the front door. It too was unlocked but can only be opened from the outside with a key.

I assumed that would be the front door. A normal automatic lock. The sliding doors would be the patio doors wouldn't they? And wouldn't they be consistent with GM being seen by JW coming down the steps?

No those doors can only be locked from the inside 100% the front door can be opened when inside without a key but you need a key from the outside to open it to enter into the apartment.

To summarise and to clarify;
There are sliding doors facing the pool- can only be locked from the inside
There is the front door facing the parking site - can only be opened from the outside with a key

(in internet the "patio door" has also been attributed to the front door)
(so where I have mentioned patio door in my previous post(s) I mean the front door. The door next to the kids bedroom window.
My notion remains that that door can only be opened from the outside with a key)

 

[enjy15]

If MM died in the apartment, why did HCW release the pictures of a that random room asking people to come forward if they recognised the interior?

 

[Lilly b]

Goncalo Amaral, the head of the original Portuguese police investigation into the toddler's disappearance, said last year that detectives had looked into an Internet chatroom exchange.

According to the newspaper, Mr Amaral claimed that a German paedophile suspect had been ruled out of the inquiry in 2008.

The former detective described the man as later having been jailed in Germany for child sexual offences.

"Many years later, it appears that in an Internet chatroom there is a conversation between that person and another person where they talk about Madeleine," he said.

Daily record 4/6/20, this mentions chats about mm specifically

 

[tedtink]

If MM died in the apartment, why did HCW release the pictures of a that random room asking people to come forward if they recognised the interior?

Could have been to see if any other abuse victims could be ID'd or to find other friends/acquaintances that could hold vital information regarding MM.

 

[peanutJelly]

A very good examination Dlk79, I agree that HCW appears confident of death yet merely suspicious of abuse, and possibly may be avoiding terms such as abduction or kidnapping, and does not appear to be trying to find the primary crime scene at any other location.

Although early on he did release internal photos and ask for help from anyone who recognised them

 

[Dlk79]

But consider that we know there was no major trauma occurred in the room, no evidence on the pillow etc of smothering. To use your bare hands in the taking of anothers life is not something that is completed in seconds. It takes time and is way more risky with regards to him being discovered. The evidence or rather 'lack-of' suggests MM was in bed 1 minute and not the next. Gone, just like that X

I'm not suggesting there would have been any major trauma. If it went down in this way, the most likely method would have been suffocation or strangulation. You cannot examine a pillow for evidence of smothering. Even with a body, it's one of the hardest methods of murder to diagnose and is normally identified via pillow fibres being found in the air passages.

Not sure I accept your argument on the risk side of things either. Suffocating a small child in a concealed room where nobody is watching versus carrying an alive child out of that apartment, a child who could call out at any point. I know which one I think carries the lesser risk of being caught in the act. Yes, one of 2 or 3 people might have walked in on him in the apartment, but there are multiple people who could have come across him once he's leaving the apartment. There are obvious reasons why leaving with the girl dead would be easier to hide than with her alive.

 

[Dlk79]

If MM died in the apartment, why did HCW release the pictures of a that random room asking people to come forward if they recognised the interior?

If you are talking about the room with the beam and fireplace, I would suggest it was an appeal for other victims to come forward who might recognise it. Specifically, the young German girl who HB and MS being raped on the stolen video camera. The picture is almost certainly the farmhouse he used to live in up to 2006. It was implied that the rae took place in that room.

I don't think LE believe MM was ever taken here in 2007. It's more about identifying other victims or people who may have encountered CB in order to find out if they can offer any leads.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I'm starting to come to the thinking that CB was already in the apartment during one of either GM or MOs checks. Bear with me on this.

HCW was asked in the recent interview about whether they had any evidence placing CB in 5A. His comment was that he could not say, since either answer would invite a thousand more questions. At the time, this seemed a reasonable thing to say, but thinking back on it, would saying "no" really invited many questions other than the obvious "what do you have then"?

I think everyone assumed they had no such evidence anyway given the importance they are placing on finding the mystery caller. And if they had evidence of CB being in 5A, it would make placing him on that call a moot point you'd think. But then, it depends on what that evidence is. And like HCWs comments on the possible video, I'm begininning to think they maybe do have something.

It led me thinking to another comment HCW made, early on in the investigation. He said that CB had knowledge of the crime that only the suspect/abductor could know. For them to know CB had that knowledge, CB must have told someone a detail about the crime. Most likely it was something said in the confession to HB. But when you consider what this detail could be, the options are limited. For "only" the abductor to know, it needs to be some piece of information that is not in the public domain. It also needs to be something LE can actually confirm took place.

Given that there is no trace of MM beyond 5A, it would surely have to be something that happened within 5A. But again, there seems to be nothing relating to the actual abduction sequence that LE could verify, since nobody saw what took place. All the available evidence led the original investigation team to doubt that an abduction even happened. MM effectively vanished without a trace.

The only sound theory I can come up with is that CB was in the apartment during either GM or MOs check, and that CB has told HB a detail about what one of them did while he was in there. An act that was not mentioned in any of their statements, possibly because it was such a minor or irrelevant detail. It could be something as inane as them pouring a glass of water or whistling a tune to themselves while CB watched/listened from a hiding place. It is something though that LE could have potentially verified as being true via some discreet questioning of the involved witness.

It seems more plausible than other options discussed previously such as CB talking about a birthmark. I can easily imagine CB boasting about hiding right under their nose while they did x, y or z. I can't really imagine why he would go to the detail of mentioning a birthmark to HB. It also doesn't really fit with "knowledge of the crime" (he could have seen a birthmark in a video from someone else), plus other people would have known about a birthmark.

I could be wrong, but it makes sense of HCW comments, as well as many other aspects of what's gone on and how FF has gone about his defence. It places CB in the apartment but unfortunately, it's possibly not robust enough evidence for a trial. The defence will claim (and are claiming) that HB is a liar and could dismiss this knowledge of what happened in 5A as coming from another source. FF could also challenge the original witness testimony and ask why the detail was never mentioned in their previous statements. If however, LE could combine HBs testimony with a seperate witness placing CB at the scene via the phone call, that becomes extremely compelling when put in front of a judge. And it would make a lot of sense as to why they are placing so much importance on tying CB to that call.

All JMO, feel free to challenge.

In relation to evidence that may put CB in 5A and that only the perp could know. What if he didn’t see anything and what if he didn’t take anything. What if he left something in 5A which is information that has never been released to the public. What if CB shared this info with HB and HB shared it with OG.

There are a lot of ifs here but it would explain a few things.

 

[enjy15]

I'm not suggesting there would have been any major trauma. If it went down in this way, the most likely method would have been suffocation or strangulation. You cannot examine a pillow for evidence of smothering. Even with a body, it's one of the hardest methods of murder to diagnose and is normally identified via pillow fibres being found in the air passages.

Not sure I accept your argument on the risk side of things either. Suffocating a small child in a concealed room where nobody is watching versus carrying an alive child out of that apartment, a child who could call out at any point. I know which one I think carries the lesser risk of being caught in the act. Yes, one of 2 or 3 people might have walked in on him in the apartment, but there are multiple people who could have come across him once he's leaving the apartment. There are obvious reasons why leaving with the girl dead would be easier to hide than with her alive.

It doesn’t look like the pillow on MMs bed was moved or displaced, I can’t imagine he would use that to smother her then place it back neatly.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

I'm not suggesting there would have been any major trauma. If it went down in this way, the most likely method would have been suffocation or strangulation. You cannot examine a pillow for evidence of smothering. Even with a body, it's one of the hardest methods of murder to diagnose and is normally identified via pillow fibres being found in the air passages.

Not sure I accept your argument on the risk side of things either. Suffocating a small child in a concealed room where nobody is watching versus carrying an alive child out of that apartment, a child who could call out at any point. I know which one I think carries the lesser risk of being caught in the act. Yes, one of 2 or 3 people might have walked in on him in the apartment, but there are multiple people who could have come across him once he's leaving the apartment. There are obvious reasons why leaving with the girl dead would be easier to hide than with her alive.

But we do know of people who say they saw a man carrying an unconcealed child in the vicinity that night. We dont know if that child was MM nor do we know what condition the child was in but we do know that the man wore trousers, shoes and a jacket as opposed to the barefoot child. Any loving father who felt the need to wear a jacket that night would absolutely make sure his child was dressed appropriately too. As a Mother I also know that sometimes a sleeping child does stir when you attempt to move them - and other times they sleep right through it. If the abductor attempted to lift MM and she did not stir then he would be right out of there, easily X

 

[Victoria Chambers]

In relation to evidence that may put CB in 5A and that only the perp could know. What if he didn’t see anything and what if he didn’t take anything. What if he left something in 5A which is information that has never been released to the public. What if CB shared this info with HB and HB shared it with OG.

There are a lot of ifs here but it would explain a few things.

I've often wondered if the McCanns would have readily left the children unattended if there was a chance that MM may wake to use the bathroom and I can only assume that the answer is No, they would not. Which makes me think that perhaps MM was wearing an over night pull-up, this would also save the resort bed from any bedtime accidents. She may even have used a dummy/soother for comfort at bedtime which perhaps is also gone. These are the only things that I can think of in relation to any unreleased info that a perpertrator could know about MM. I just dont think the info is about the apartment itself since thousands of people have stayed or worked in there and therefore they know what the crime scene looks like, if you get me? X

 

[Dlk79]

It doesn’t look like the pillow on MMs bed was moved or displaced, I can’t imagine he would use that to smother her then place it back neatly.

He may not have used a pillow, was just pointing out there's no way to identify it as a murder weapon without the body. But in any case, it's not implausible he would have put it back had he used it. Only takes a second and it hides the evidence of what had just taken place.

But we do know of people who say they saw a man carrying an unconcealed child in the vicinity that night. We dont know if that child was MM nor do we know what condition the child was in but we do know that the man wore trousers, shoes and a jacket as opposed to the barefoot child. Any loving father who felt the need to wear a jacket that night would absolutely make sure his child was dressed appropriately too. As a Mother I also know that sometimes a sleeping child does stir when you attempt to move them - and other times they sleep right through it. If the abductor attempted to lift MM and she did not stir then he would be right out of there, easily X

Not sure what evidence that points to though. The person seen carrying the child may or may not have been CB. The child in his arms may or may not have been dead at that point. The sighting proves nothing for one case or the other. The point we were discussing was about risk, you said killing her in the apartment would have been too risky (in the sense of getting caught in the act). I'm just saying to have to transport that child out of that apartment while alive, it would have involved an even higher risk of being caught since there are more people, the child could wake up and you would have to carry them in a certain careful manner throughout to avoid this happening.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

He may not have used a pillow, was just pointing out there's no way to identify it as a murder weapon without the body. But in any case, it's not implausible he would have put it back had he used it. Only takes a second and it hides the evidence of what had just taken place.

Not sure what evidence that points to though. The person seen carrying the child may or may not have been CB. The child in his arms may or may not have been dead at that point. The sighting proves nothing for one case or the other. The point we were discussing was about risk, you said killing her in the apartment would have been too risky (in the sense of getting caught in the act). I'm just saying to have to transport that child out of that apartment while alive, it would have involved an even higher risk of being caught since there are more people, the child could wake up and you would have to carry them in a certain careful manner throughout to avoid this happening.

It points to the same amount of evidence as a murder occurring inside the apartment - None! Except, carrying a child from an apartment would not leave any evidence. A murder on the other hand, usually does X

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I've often wondered if the McCanns would have readily left the children unattended if there was a chance that MM may wake to use the bathroom and I can only assume that the answer is No, they would not. Which makes me think that perhaps MM was wearing an over night pull-up, this would also save the resort bed from any bedtime accidents. She may even have used a dummy/soother for comfort at bedtime which perhaps is also gone. These are the only things that I can think of in relation to any unreleased info that a perpertrator could know about MM. I just dont think the info is about the apartment itself since thousands of people have stayed or worked in there and therefore they know what the crime scene looks like, if you get me? X

Perhaps these things are info that only the perp could know.

My point was different though. Please consider a scenario where CB went into 5A with the intention to do some of the pervy weirdo stuff he is now infamous for. While doing this he is interrupted and has to leave in a hurry, leaving behind some of his apparatus.

If this did happen, the item would likely be something small and unremarkable not important enough to rule out GM and KM as the PJ still considered them suspects but something they have probably claimed doesn’t belong to them and has not been made public.

If he mentioned to HB that he left his X in 5A then that would be enough info to get OG to Greece and make CB the prime suspect that he is.

Does this make sense?

 

[redplanet]

But consider that we know there was no major trauma occurred in the room, no evidence on the pillow etc of smothering. To use your bare hands in the taking of anothers life is not something that is completed in seconds. It takes time and is way more risky with regards to him being discovered. The evidence or rather 'lack-of' suggeste, just like that X

Should investigation of the intruder theory consider other rooms also?

 

[Dlk79]

Perhaps these things are info that only the perp could know.

My point was different though. Please consider a scenario where CB went into 5A with the intention to do some of the pervy weirdo stuff he is now infamous for. While doing this he is interrupted and has to leave in a hurry, leaving behind some of his apparatus.

If this did happen, the item would likely be something small and unremarkable not important enough to rule out GM and KM as the PJ still considered them suspects but something they have probably claimed doesn’t belong to them and has not been made public.

If he mentioned to HB that he left his X in 5A then that would be enough info to get OG to Greece and make CB the prime suspect that he is.

Does this make sense?

The problem with that is how would we not know about a foreign item left in the apartment after all this time? During the initial searches by the McCanns, if they had spotted something that didn't belong there, they would have surely found that significant and have spoken out about it. Either as part of the appeals for information or subsequently.

If we assume that the McCann's never found it, but that the police did, why would they have kept quiet about it? Why not mention it to the McCanns or anyone? Given how much all the evidence in this case has been trawled over by various angencies, something like that would be considered significant. Something found in the apartment that didn't belong there, you'd think that information would have come out by now if it was true.

It also doesn’t feel like something CB would naturally mention in such a conversation to HB. He was bragging, whereas leaving something behind makes him look foolish. If he'd left evidence behind, it's something he'd be worried about IMO.

 

[redplanet]

Perhaps these things are info that only the perp could know.

My point was different though. Please consider a scenario where CB went into 5A with the intention to do some of the pervy weirdo stuff he is now infamous for. While doing this he is interrupted and has to leave in a hurry, leaving behind some of his apparatus.

If this did happen, the item would likely be something small and unremarkable not important enough to rule out GM and KM as the PJ still considered them suspects but something they have probably claimed doesn’t belong to them and has not been made public.

If he mentioned to HB that he left his X in 5A then that would be enough info to get OG to Greece and make CB the prime suspect that he is.

Does this make sense?

It's possible. However the item would need to be something which could not possibly be known about without being there. (i'm currently going with the theory of BKA finding a 5a photo/video)