Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #21

[SuperdadV8]

Next raid of a property, probably in the MM case in Hannover, including sniffer dogs for data carriers.

I assume they know already, that they do not need to search for forensics in germany?!

Hausdurchsuchung mit Polizei-Großaufgebot in Hannover - kein Hinweis auf Straftat

ETA: After my posting, the report has been altered. Before that, it was linked to the MM case. That's kind of odd to me.

Now there isn't a link to the MM case anymore and it is said that no evidence leads to a crime. Either wrong reporting, or a kind of strategy?!

It says now, that in an earlier version of the report it was linked to an "old case", but that hasn't been "approved"....

 

[SuperdadV8]

Earlier version:

Hausdurchsuchung mit Polizei-Großaufgebot in Hannover - kein Hinweis auf Straftat



And Dailymail either:

Madeleine McCann News, Suspects and Parents | Daily Mail Online

 

[redplanet]

I am going to draw a map showing IMO which two windows MO listened outside of.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Yes. For CB to analyse the entire restaurant arrival sequence, complete with people arriving late, or some nights one or other adult remaining in an apartment, is too complex.

I think it’s quite easy to take a look at a table and see if there are any empty chairs though. This only requires a place out of sight to view the restaurant - perhaps one of the empty apartments?

 

[snowpea666]

Could CB have hidden behind this brown cot? It's about 106cm wide and 120cm tall.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I agree but would add a couple of things.

The layout of the appt and the way in which GM went in. How alert would CB be if engaged in some kind of abuse.

GM entered via the patio doors at the front. To get there he'd have gone through a gate and upstairs next to the kitchen. Therefore separated from the kids room by a kitchen and hallway. Even tho relaxed the rest of his evening was reliant on his kids remaining asleep so I'd guess he'd be quiet

If CB was engaged in something impleasant surely he'd be focusing on that and less alert to noise

Once in thru the patio doors he'd be facing the rooms where CB would be. Even with doors shut it'd be difficult to move without being heard.

I guess with the timeline we are now discussing CB wouldn’t have had time to unzip his flies before being alerted to GM’s check. In my opinion, if he was about to do something unpleasant he would be very alert - pardon the pun but if he gets caught with his trousers down, he gets pulled apart by a very angry Scotsman.

If he is not in there during GM’s check you need to explain the discrepancy with the door. Either the McCanns left it open when they went to dinner or MM opened and when back to sleep. In the circumstance, I don’t think either of these things are likely.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

The whole idea of an abductor, not only hiding out in there but engaging in the abuse and possible death of MM inside the apartment, is a bit far out there for me. The longer the perp stays, the more likely he would leave a trace of himself.

I think it is much more plausible to say this was planned, probably involved an employee. And all happened as quickly as possible. I believe somebody with access to keys, who knew the routine, whose DNA would not be out of place should it be found - like a cleaner for instance - may have entered through the front door. Took MM from her bed and handed her straight out the window. Virtually handed out to the car park where a vehicle was probably waiting to take her away. I also think it more likely that this plan initially involved a plot to make money. Perhaps releasing info re MM eye made this venture impossible ultimately. I don't know obviously but it makes more sense IMO X

 

[peanutJelly]

Thank you. Yes, now I recall the first MO check.

I think it’s fair to say that if CB had any forethought about going in to the apartment he would minimise his chances of getting caught by waiting until all the group were seated. In this scenario, the timing was really tight so it’s possible he had just entered the apartment when GM did his check. This is supported by everything being as expected except the door, perhaps CB was just in the kids bedroom when he heard the gate or something else let him know GM was on his way.

I like the connection you’ve made to FF’s 90 second comment. I wonder if there is something else that makes FF think this is the time that the prosecutors think is the window for entry. For example, could CB be giving him info that makes what actually happened seem very unlikely?

I just really hope that GM hasn’t made things difficult for HCW with his statements about spending time gazing down on MM sleeping peacefully, which apologies for repetition but I still think this statement was to reinforce that he checked when IMO he nipped in, checked all was quiet, had a wee then left. He wanted to get back to the table, not risk waking up his kids by going into the room and gazing at them sleeping

 

[Dlk79]

The whole idea of an abductor, not only hiding out in there but engaging in the abuse and possible death of MM inside the apartment, is a bit far out there for me. The longer the perp stays, the more likely he would leave a trace of himself.

I think it is much more plausible to say this was planned, probably involved an employee. And all happened as quickly as possible. I believe somebody with access to keys, who knew the routine, whose DNA would not be out of place should it be found - like a cleaner for instance - may have entered through the front door. Took MM from her bed and handed her straight out the window. Virtually handed out to the car park where a vehicle was probably waiting to take her away. I also think it more likely that this plan initially involved a plot to make money. Perhaps releasing info re MM eye made this venture impossible ultimately. I don't know obviously but it makes more sense IMO X

Entitled to your opinion of course, but in what respect do you think this complex planned abduction scenario is "more plausible"? You seem to be dismissing the theory of someone being in the apartment for a longer time on the basis that the police would surely have found some trace of them. Why do you think that? Except for the saliva stain they did an analysis on, the only other forensics they carried out were on hairs they found. And as I pointed out in an earlier post, they failed to find hairs or DNA traces of several other people who we know for a fact were in the apartment that night, and for a longer period than the intruder would have been there.

I don't quite understand the logic of why this elaborate planned abduction theory seems more plausible than say, someone attempting to abuse MM in the apartment and something going wrong. We already know of dozens of other similar abuse crimes in the algarve alone in the prior years where an abductor crept in and abused children in their holiday apartment. Is it that difficult to believe one such attempt might go wrong and result in a child's death? Especially with no parents around to be alerted things could have escalated further than they otherwise might have.

On the other hand, how many cases do we know of a foriegn child being deliberately abducted from an upper class holiday resort as part of some well planned abduction? What would be the motive for something so risky? People who steal and traffic children for financial gain wouldn't take such risks, there are much easier targets they would go for with far less exposure and fallout.

All JMO opinion but this seems more like an impulsive crime and the reason it still unsolved is due to luck on behalf of the perp, poor initial police work, lack of cctv and lack of people around at the time of year.

 

[peanutJelly]

I think it’s quite easy to take a look at a table and see if there are any empty chairs though. This only requires a place out of sight to view the restaurant - perhaps one of the empty apartments?

If you go back to all the witness statements in the files excluding those of the tapas group, you get quite a different timescale. So I think FF is planning to used the tapas statements to prove it couldn’t have been CB, when their statements don’t match those of people outside their group. The tapas groups collaboration with each other to make sure they didn’t look negligent may unfortunately work in CBs favour. I don’t want to sway anyone about the timings, just go through the files and you’ll see what I mean

 

[Dlk79]

Police in Maddie case receive 'interesting' pictures from British tourists

The politics of the investigation post-brexit is starting to be discussed with no real context as to why that should be brought up now. The previous talk about "nothing happening" with the case before the new year could be related unless it's just more hyperbole from the paper.

 

[redplanet]

I think it’s quite easy to take a look at a table and see if there are any empty chairs though. This only requires a place out of sight to view the restaurant - perhaps one of the empty apartments?

But the 9 diners would also leave table for toilet visits

 

[redplanet]

I guess with the timeline we are now discussing CB wouldn’t have had time to unzip his flies before being alerted to GM’s check. In my opinion, if he was about to do something unpleasant he would be very alert - pardon the pun but if he gets caught with his trousers down, he gets pulled apart by a very angry Scotsman.

If he is not in there during GM’s check you need to explain the discrepancy with the door. Either the McCanns left it open when they went to dinner or MM opened and when back to sleep. In the circumstance, I don’t think either of these things are likely.

Is it not possible she went to wee? That would account for the door being opened?

 

[Victoria Chambers]

Entitled to your opinion of course, but in what respect do you think this complex planned abduction scenario is "more plausible"? You seem to be dismissing the theory of someone being in the apartment for a longer time on the basis that the police would surely have found some trace of them. Why do you think that? Except for the saliva stain they did an analysis on, the only other forensics they carried out were on hairs they found. And as I pointed out in an earlier post, they failed to find hairs or DNA traces of several other people who we know for a fact were in the apartment that night, and for a longer period than the intruder would have been there.

I don't quite understand the logic of why this elaborate planned abduction theory seems more plausible than say, someone attempting to abuse MM in the apartment and something going wrong. We already know of dozens of other similar abuse crimes in the algarve alone in the prior years where an abductor crept in and abused children in their holiday apartment. Is it that difficult to believe one such attempt might go wrong and result in a child's death? Especially with no parents around to be alerted things could have escalated further than they otherwise might have.

On the other hand, how many cases do we know of a foriegn child being deliberately abducted from an upper class holiday resort as part of some well planned abduction? What would be the motive for something so risky? People who steal and traffic children for financial gain wouldn't take such risks, there are much easier targets they would go for with far less exposure and fallout.

All JMO opinion but this seems more like an impulsive crime and the reason it still unsolved is due to luck on behalf of the perp, poor initial police work, lack of cctv and lack of people around at the time of year.

We also know that the man commiting the previous assaults in the Algarve was entering apartments when all occupants were in bed and not eating outdoors doing regular checks. He was also not too bothered about keeping himself to himself since they do have his DNA from scenes. Also, the gathering of DNA evidence from 5A was not the greatest of operations to say the least. They found cigarette ash in amongst the hairs collected. From the smoking GNR officer. Given the amount of people in there, the daily cleaners, the maintenance men who fixed the shutter and demonstrated the washing machine, a thorough sweep would have found much more DNA than the hair belonging to the McCanns and the GNR dog. What they did find is what was visible imo. The bit I don't understand, is death occurring whilst keeping MM quiet during 1 of the adults checks. I think he would have been caught at that point. Also, 1 employee did receive a phonecall for a million £ ransom. Why not call the family or police and how did he have the employees mobile phone number to begin with!? We can go round in circles saying how and why things may have occurred. But the truth is, I only know that I don't have a clue what took place tbh. It is literally anybody's guess! X

 

[Denis R Tandib]

But the 9 diners would also leave table for toilet visits

For sure, I think my point is more about reducing the risk of being caught rather then eliminating it by making certain they were all away. All I am saying is that if someone could see the restaurant, the most opportune time to enter 5A is when all, or even most of the diners are seated ... however brief that period may have been.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Is it not possible she went to wee? That would account for the door being opened?

I don’t think so as this still requires her (a three-year old) to wake up to the realisation that there are no parents in the apartment. Perhaps other parents have different views?

 

[Dlk79]

We also know that the man commiting the previous assaults in the Algarve was entering apartments when all occupants were in bed and not eating outdoors doing regular checks

I don't know if we do know that for sure, but admit that it was likely. However, I don't see that as particularly relevant. Would the same man have done the same thing if the parents weren't in the apartment? To me, them being not there would make it more appealing.

He was also not too bothered about keeping himself to himself since they do have his DNA from scenes

There were dozens of attacks, and likely by a variety of of different perpetrators. Have you got any links to how many they actually found DNA evidence at because I don't think it was many at all.

Also, the gathering of DNA evidence from 5A was not the greatest of operations to say the least

Well again, that's my point. It is not necessarily that the perp left no trace, but that the DNA sweep was pretty inadequate so he may well have left traces that were never picked up. Although we know CB was forensically aware too, and regardless of what events took place in the apartment, I can imagine how he could have done a good job of leaving no forensic evidence to find. That was essentially the reason I questioned why you thought CB couldn't have been in there for long and on that basis were favouring a quick in and out abduction scenario.

The bit I don't understand, is death occurring whilst keeping MM quiet during 1 of the adults checks

That is just one of the theories being pondered in the scenario of an opportunist break in and/or abuse in situ. There are many other ways MM's death in the apartment might have panned out with nobody around to hear.

Also, 1 employee did receive a phonecall for a million £ ransom. Why not call the family or police and how did he have the employees mobile phone number to begin with

I think the motives around that are pretty clear. Its very common for fake ransom demands to occur in a missing person's case. Most likely it was someone local who knew a friend of a friend working at the OC and got his number to try his luck.

But the truth is, I only know that I don't have a clue what took place tbh. It is literally anybody's guess! X

Totally agree. We're all just trying to make logical sense of this peculiar case and we all have our own theories. Debating them is good IMO if it gets us any closer to the truth.

 

[Dlk79]

Is it not possible she went to wee? That would account for the door being opened?

Something along those lines is also quite plausible for the door being open upon GM's check in fairness. i.e. that MM herself opened it.

In GMs statement, he mentions that MM came to sleep in their room one night because the twins were crying. And, upon seeing the door open on the 3rd when he entered, his immediate thought was that MM had done the same again and gone into his room, until he looked into the bedroom and saw all 3 children were still asleep in there.

The McCanns stated they assumed all the kids were asleep when they left the apartment, meaning they did not check if they actually were. Therefore, it's possible MM actually got up (perhaps upon hearing them leave) and opened the door to look for them before going back to her bed and that's why the door was open when GM did his check. Another possibility.

 

[redplanet]

If he had watched (or even been in) the apartment on Wed evening, he might have predicted a similar return time (about 23:45) for Thu evening also?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Something along those lines is also quite plausible for the door being open upon GM's check in fairness. i.e. that MM herself opened it.

In GMs statement, he mentions that MM came to sleep in their room one night because the twins were crying. And, upon seeing the door open on the 3rd when he entered, his immediate thought was that MM had done the same again and gone into his room, until he looked into the bedroom and saw all 3 children were still asleep in there.

The McCanns stated they assumed all the kids were asleep when they left the apartment, meaning they did not check if they actually were. Therefore, it's possible MM actually got up (perhaps upon hearing them leave) and opened the door to look for them before going back to her bed and that's why the door was open when GM did his check. Another possibility.

I feel like I’m labouring my point on this so apologies. IMO, there is a big difference in MM leaving the room and finding her parents and leaving the room and not finding them.

GM made that statement as a way to justify the door being open to himself ... at that time, it was the only seemingly reasonable explanation.

Are there any other parents that want to chime in here?