Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect #30

[C.greek]

RSBM. Of course he knows what propensity reasoning is. He wasn't making an argument in Court, but rather in a newspaper, so as usual, one wonders what his purpose was in linking these 2 cases which are not even charged yet.

He is keeping his cards close to his chest so until he reveals them, I remain sceptical of his propensity argument. He already has the rape of the American woman as to CBs MO, so it is hard to imagine what a second conviction of the same type adds to the MM case.

Perhaps his comments should be read more as a rationalisation for the MM obsessed media, than a genuine legal strategy for the MM case. He has these 5 cases ready to prosecute on their own merits, so he is doing so. The MM case is not ready to charge, so he is not doing so.

HCW "We are building a picture of Christian B and the methods he uses to commit his crimes. There are parallels with the case of the American tourist who was raped, the attack on Hazel Behan, and the abduction and murder of Madeleine McCann."

from the above article.

so clearly it has to do with MO.

also from the times article which is paywalled he says that if CB is convicted of HB rape, a charge for MM will follow.

what do you make of this? Not a genuine strategy? To me as a layperson it clearly speaks of a kind of strategy.

Imo

 

[C.greek]

I would say any image of MM that was found in CB's possession that can be proven to be post-abduction (ie. an image that cannot be accounted for by her parents) would be proof enough of CB's guilt. No yellow/white camper van or tabloid-friendly dark scary concealed basement required.

If that's what HCW has, then I agree that it would be damning.

CB could say that it's not him who took it but that he found it on the dark web. HCW has clearly stated they don't have an image of CB and MM together - why make this minute clarification if they haven't found anything at all?

 

[Megnut]

HCW "We are building a picture of Christian B and the methods he uses to commit his crimes. There are parallels with the case of the American tourist who was raped, the attack on Hazel Behan, and the abduction and murder of Madeleine McCann."

from the above article.

so clearly it has to do with MO.

also from the times article which is paywalled he says that if CB is convicted of HB rape, a charge for MM will follow.

what do you make of this? Not a genuine strategy? To me as a layperson it clearly speaks of a kind of strategy.

Imo

That almost sounds like they have a photo or video they can't directly tie to the agent, but that the suspect has a habit of videotaping/photographing his deplorable crimes creates another circumstantial link.

JMO

 

[C.greek]

That almost sounds like they have a photo or video they can't directly tie to the agent, but that the suspect has a habit of videotaping/photographing his deplorable crimes creates another circumstantial link.

JMO

And of course added to this the words of HCW '

"If you knew the evidence we had you would come to the same conclusion as I do but I can't give you details because we don't want the accused to know what we have on him - these are tactical considerations."

Madeleine McCann: Public 'would reach same conclusion' on suspect

Prosecutor says if public "knew the evidence we had" they would think Madeleine McCann was killed.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Anxala]

He is keeping his cards close to his chest so until he reveals them, I remain sceptical of his propensity argument. He already has the rape of the American woman as to CBs MO, so it is hard to imagine what a second conviction of the same type adds to the MM case.

I don't see the connection either. There's a disconnect there imo that HCW (in his own words) feels that a judge would be more likely to be open to the idea of CB as abductor/murderer of a small child on the basis of 2 breaking and entering (if proven to be the case as regards HB) rapes of adult women. It's a leap.

CB could say that it's not him who took it but that he found it on the dark web. HCW has clearly stated they don't have an image of CB and MM together - why make this minute clarification if they haven't found anything at all?

That's true. He could. But presumably in 2022, HCW and co would have their tech experts onto the metadata of anything found in CB's known possession.

I never said anything about HCW having an image of CB and MM together. On the contrary, that's been my speculation from the off, that based on what HCW has said, that there may well be significant imagery of some form or another, just not imagery that connects CB to MM.

 

[Megnut]

I don't see the connection either. There's a disconnect there imo that HCW (in his own words) feels that a judge would be more likely to be open to the idea of CB as abductor/murderer of a small child on the basis of 2 breaking and entering (if proven to be the case as regards HB) rapes of adult women. It's a leap.



That's true. He could. But presumably in 2022, HCW and co would have their tech experts onto the metadata of anything found in CB's known possession.

I never said anything about HCW having an image of CB and MM together. On the contrary, that's been my speculation from the off, that based on what HCW has said, that there may well be significant imagery of some form or another, just not imagery that connects CB to MM.

Exactly. But that there's a photo/video of MM (if there is one) is consistent with CB's known method of filming/photographing his crimes. Any similarities in background, setting, staging, even the nature of the violence itself could lend further support connecting CB to the disappearance of MM.

JMO

 

[mrjitty]

I don't see the connection either. There's a disconnect there imo that HCW (in his own words) feels that a judge would be more likely to be open to the idea of CB as abductor/murderer of a small child on the basis of 2 breaking and entering (if proven to be the case as regards HB) rapes of adult women. It's a leap.

RSBM

Yes - it doesn't make much sense when he already has one such conviction.

IMO he isn't really making a legal argument there - rather justifying why he is advancing other charges and not the one the media is interested in. Personally I doubt there is any 9D chess involved. He's just charging what he can charge.

 

[C.greek]

RSBM

Yes - it doesn't make much sense when he already has one such conviction.

IMO he isn't really making a legal argument there - rather justifying why he is advancing other charges and not the one the media is interested in. Personally I doubt there is any 9D chess involved. He's just charging what he can charge.

If he was just charging what he could charge he could say that, instead of connecting the three cases together. He is talking about a MO (as Megnut above said could be the filming aspect or it could be what appears in the autobiographical books that GA talked about or even in the chats he was exchanging or something completely different we have no idea about). But he does link the 3 cases.

HCW has not appeared so far to be making mute comments.

What he says he means it and he has been careful with that So no reason whatsoever to believe he is just bluffing his way now.

 

[C.greek]

I don't see the connection either. There's a disconnect there imo that HCW (in his own words) feels that a judge would be more likely to be open to the idea of CB as abductor/murderer of a small child on the basis of 2 breaking and entering (if proven to be the case as regards HB) rapes of adult women. It's a leap.



That's true. He could. But presumably in 2022, HCW and co would have their tech experts onto the metadata of anything found in CB's known possession.

I never said anything about HCW having an image of CB and MM together. On the contrary, that's been my speculation from the off, that based on what HCW has said, that there may well be significant imagery of some form or another, just not imagery that connects CB to MM.

I meant that HCW made clear they don't have imagery of CB and MM together . Had they they wouldn't need to wait nor have a public appeal. They would have charged him. It's the clarification of the together that HCW made which imo is significant, potentially indicating they do have some sort of imagery.

On your first point, imo HCW is talking about MO of the crimes committed, not the entry/exit point of the perpetrator.

 

[enquirer6]

I don't see the connection either. There's a disconnect there imo that HCW (in his own words) feels that a judge would be more likely to be open to the idea of CB as abductor/murderer of a small child on the basis of 2 breaking and entering (if proven to be the case as regards HB) rapes of adult women. It's a leap.



That's true. He could. But presumably in 2022, HCW and co would have their tech experts onto the metadata of anything found in CB's known possession.

I never said anything about HCW having an image of CB and MM together. On the contrary, that's been my speculation from the off, that based on what HCW has said, that there may well be significant imagery of some form or another, just not imagery that connects CB to MM.

Yes!

That would make sense.

In which case (and in the absence of further corroboration) it would either be a case of according Brueckner extreme benefit of the doubt or convicting him.

 

[RichardKimble]

The Express had a piece yesterday, was there a press conference ?

Mr Wolters told a press conference on Friday that Mr Brueckner's defence lawyer, Friedrich Fülscher, still has time to comment on those additional, alleged offences, before a decision on charges will be made.

Police eye breakthrough in Madeleine McCann case

MADELEINE MCCANN suspect Christian Brueckner's physical examination has been carried out by German police, according to a public prosecutor.

www.express.co.uk

 

[mrjitty]

The Express had a piece yesterday, was there a press conference ?

Mr Wolters told a press conference on Friday that Mr Brueckner's defence lawyer, Friedrich Fülscher, still has time to comment on those additional, alleged offences, before a decision on charges will be made.

Police eye breakthrough in Madeleine McCann case

MADELEINE MCCANN suspect Christian Brueckner's physical examination has been carried out by German police, according to a public prosecutor.

www.express.co.uk

HCW released information to a german media org which provides content to various german news publishers. This is the same information.

 

[RichardKimble]

HCW released information to a german media org which provides content to various german news publishers. This is the same information.

Yeah I realise its the same, so no conference but media briefing through a release .

Still a tenuous link though nothing to suggest a breakthrough in the McCann case as per headline .

 

[mrjitty]

If he was just charging what he could charge he could say that, instead of connecting the three cases together. He is talking about a MO (as Megnut above said could be the filming aspect or it could be what appears in the autobiographical books that GA talked about or even in the chats he was exchanging or something completely different we have no idea about). But he does link the 3 cases.

HCW has not appeared so far to be making mute comments.

What he says he means it and he has been careful with that So no reason whatsoever to believe he is just bluffing his way now.

If he has the MO evidence he can use it now. No need to wait for conviction in an unrelated case. Indeed failure to convict in the HB case could be a problem!

In my view, the most likely explanation is he doesn't have strong enough evidence to prosecute the MM case.

Especially it is hard to understand what they could be working on all this time, that will fall into place next year.

 

[tedtink]

I don't see the connection either. There's a disconnect there imo that HCW (in his own words) feels that a judge would be more likely to be open to the idea of CB as abductor/murderer of a small child on the basis of 2 breaking and entering (if proven to be the case as regards HB) rapes of adult women. It's a leap.

I don't believe for one minute you're trying to minimise the act of DM's rape but there is an extra component, torture.
The rape of DM was sadistic and involved torture.
The alleged rape of HB was sadistic and involved torture.
The other 2 alleged rapes, from what we've heard from MS, suggested torture.
The Skype chat referred to 'torturing' a little one and documenting it.
The content found a the box factory, contained bestiality (category A in UK) category A also includes sadism, so we can only speculate what else was found.

Mark T hoffman (Criminal profiler) 'CB was into violence and torture and rape against vulnerable, weak, easy victims'...... ( 50 mins Aus)

I realise we're not privy to all the evidence where MM is concerned, but is it really that much of a leap?
It's not even a small step IMO, it's a perp walking sideways.
These aren't tenuous links.



JMO

 

[mrjitty]

I don't believe for one minute you're trying to minimise the act of rape but there is an extra component, torture.
The rape of DM was sadistic and involved torture.
The alleged rape of HB was sadistic and involved torture.
The other 2 alleged rapes, from what we've heard from MS, suggested torture.
The Skype chat referred to 'torturing' a little one and documenting it.
The content found a the box factory, contained bestiality (category A in UK) category A also includes sadism, so we can only speculate what else was found.

Mark T hoffman (Criminal profiler) 'CB was into violence and torture and rape against vulnerable, weak, easy victims'...... ( 50 mins Aus)

I realise we're not privy to all the evidence where MM is concerned, but is it really that much of a leap?
It's not even a small step IMO, it's a perp walking sideways.
These aren't tenuous links.


JMO

* Disclaimer: We don't know what HCWs evidence is that might link the cases *

At least at common law, what you list above would be inadmissible as propensity evidence.

What you need are facts that are so similar, they link the cases (a so called MO)

So in the HB case, break in to the apartment, the videoing, the clothing, and extended nature of the attack, taken together, increase the likelihood it was the same attacker as the American woman. There is a definite style or signature.

By itself, being the kind of person who attacks weak victims doesn't make it more likely you attacked this victim, where identity is the question.

* Before everyone jumps in - this post is intended only to explain how similar fact and propensity evidence are handled *

 

[mrjitty]

Yes!

That would make sense.

In which case (and in the absence of further corroboration) it would either be a case of according Brueckner extreme benefit of the doubt or convicting him.

The central mystery of this case is what could be such a powerful piece of evidence that a court has allowed HCW to go public accusing CB of murder, and make ongoing definitive statements outside of charges, YET not so powerful as to charge him. Its an extremely unique state of affairs!

 

[tedtink]

* Disclaimer: We don't know what HCWs evidence is that might link the cases *

At least at common law, what you list above would be inadmissible as propensity evidence.

What you need are facts that are so similar, they link the cases (a so called MO)

So in the HB case, break in to the apartment, the videoing, the clothing, and extended nature of the attack, taken together, increase the likelihood it was the same attacker as the American woman. There is a definite style or signature.

By itself, being the kind of person who attacks weak victims doesn't make it more likely you attacked this victim, where identity is the question.

* Before everyone jumps in - this post is intended only to explain how similar fact and propensity evidence are handled *

Like I said in my post 'I realise we're not privy to all the evidence where MM is concerned'.
Without going into detail of what they could have found or heard, I can only assume HCW is also establishing MO.

 

[enquirer6]

Not sure if this link is helpful?

Obviously English law, not German.

Bad Character Evidence | The Crown Prosecution Service

www.cps.gov.uk

 

[mrjitty]

Like I said in my post 'I realise we're not privy to all the evidence where MM is concerned'.
HCW said there are similarities and IMO he is establishing MO.

Hopefully one day he will share his evidence!