I think getting to the root of the "she was adamant to go to the QT" statement may answer some questions.
Finding the source of that statement will help to see if it is reliable or questionable.
50/50 the source of that statement is reliable or the source is lying and directing the investigation away from themselves.
I'd not be surprised if many people understand where she was going completely. People that use drugs or are involved in a common form of illegal activity, typically have the same dealer in common etc. Most drug dealers go on referrals from current customers for new customers. So I'd be surprised if numerous people didn't know exactly why she was going that direction. But are they gonna say that? naw. Logic is simple on that.
Now the real issue is motivation imo. If we rule out accident or running away for a moment -- not saying I am actually ruling them out, but for the purpose of this line of thinking -- that means that her going missing was related to some unknown illegal activity.
A drug dealer, cares about his money. If you are a threat to his money, he's going to have a problem with you. ie you owe him money or you are a snitch
A stalker -- someone from the club or wherever - they care about their obsession which then makes it sex motivated.
A human trafficker - cares about money and just simply see's her as a means to make money. That's their motivation in abducting.
A john - cares about sex. He also might have some violent impulses that lead to harming someone. Their motivation is sex.
So.. if you look at each one of those possibilities, and think about who has the ability/experience to best conceal this crime from a statistical point of view... I'd say i'd rank like this :
1. human trafficker
2. drug dealer
3. stalker
4. john
1 & 2 are really close in terms of ability/experience
3 & 4 are really close in terms of ability/experience
So if we break it down to 1&2 being most likely from this line of thinking, you next go to which of those is most likely based on the circumstances.
I personally think #2 is more likely based on what we know. Because although it's not impossible, the targets of #1 human trafficking are usually more vulnerable than I can detect that Toni was based on what we know. She was involved in risky behavior, but she had boyfriend/friends/family. She's not a runaway or foreign national. Again, not ruling this out, but just see it as less probable based on who she seems to be -- and I could be REALLY wrong on that admittedly.
#2 is something we have tons of evidence of her using drugs, so of course she has to get them from somewhere.
So... if #2 is the more probable, the next step is motivation.
money seems to be the most probable.
owing money? Snitch?
Is there a way to tell if she owes money? That's what you should be asking people around her, and not focusing on where she went etc as much. If someone knows who she owes money too, even better.
Now the reason why I don't think that owing money is the issue, is because she doesn't seem to be some drug user in an alley with no means to make money. A drug dealer is going to see her as good for the money, and apply pressure so that they get their money. It would have to get to epic proportions imo for a drug dealer to off someone like Toni. Remember, they are about money. So yes, there is a slight chance that a drug dealer would get his money from the Human Trafficker as a result, but again, I'd have to believe he'd not go to that extent w/ someone like Toni. She clearly is able to earn money.
Now... snitch. If that's the case, I'm gonna say LE already knows that. Family might know that as well. and... people around her might know that as well, and might even be several that clued the dealer in on that.
So, I don't rule out any of the illegal activities in my mind or even accident or running away. But based on what so little we know, I am at this point thinking snitch is the most probable.
But.. as an added probability, most everything I see doesn't seem to contradict the snitch angle.
LE is acting as they would. They want to find her, would know she is in great danger, but also can't say they know... in case she is alive still and no one knows yet.
Parents are acting as they would. They want to find her, but realize saying anything potentially puts her in danger.
Friends/Coworkers -- Would potentially be the ones she was snitching on. They got vested interest in her not being found.
So... I do think it's the most probable thing, based on the above. As always, the highest probability is not always reality. also... god knows we know very little that we can point to as fact!!
But my opinion is the pulling over part is a red herring in a sense, and possibly even a contributing factor to motivation in the snitch scenario. Someone knows that Toni gets pulled over all the time, they just might think... hmmm.
Lastly, if snitch is a possibility in your mind. Wouldn't you also look at some recent drug busts of people she might know? Because that would be one way that someone might discover a snitch, by simply assessing who "knew". So... if you look at it that way, she doesn't even have to be a snitch to be viewed as a snitch potentially.
