GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - #10

[Spider92]

A few questions ...

1 - Why is the decription /photo of the large bag Abby was seen carrying at school footage not given but the white purse inside ?

2- Dad's letter was on 4 Nov and Abby's letter arrived on 6 Nov ? How come the totally silent dad somehow emerged with a letter two days prior to Abby's letter?

3- Mom's letter was dated 22 Nov.. Isn't it a bit late reaction to Abby's 6 Nov letter... 16 days is a quiet long time for authentication imo.

4- Dad asked Abby in his letter to post her favorite Bible scripture to let them know she's ok .. If she is safe and warm somewhere why wouldn't she respond again as the dad asked so that everyone would be sure it is her who's reaching out not an abductor.

5- IMO Abby looks much more well-groomed with some make up on the day she disappeared than her usual casual style we see in some photos ...Why?

JMO

1. The large bag may be the same type of back pack that every school kid carries. Most look identical with no distinguishing features.
2. I agree - that is very odd.
3. LE has stated that letters from MP are very rare. I would guess that there were many debates (just like there are here) as to the authenticity of the letter and whether responding would jeopardize Abby's safety.
4. She could have already done so. In a recent plea, Dad said that if she reached out to him, he would share it with only JY.
5. i've just seen the one grainy video picture from the school. My impression from her body language was that she looked purposeful and a little ticked off. I would like to see the whole video clip but am aware of no other pix from that date. Like most of us, I'm sure she has days where she looks good and others where she would prefer to to be photographed. Most days, I'm in the latter group.

 

[MURDERER_SERVANT]

Listening to mom and reading her notes and letter to Abby , I certainly believe that Abby ran away but thinking that she didn't pack anything not even a jacket or her jeans for instance, I believe that runaway theory seems impossible.There is a contradiction imo so as to why a mother would believe that her child would just run away without packing a few things? So I wonder whether mom noticed a few clothes missing and was that why she reacted so quickly to call the police and first stated LE thought for some reason she made it home according to mom's reactions but she didn't share that info (missing items) with the LE to keep them look for Abby as a missing case not a runaway? If I were LE , I would check whether all her clothes one by one in her photos are sitting in the wardrobe or not.
Just my opinions

 

[Jade127402]

It seems that in many cases of missing teenagers, the parents will say things like "She would never runaway...Someone had to have taken her" Yet the police, the media, and the public don't behave like there is some madman abductor on the loose. Now, in Abby's case, the parents are saying they think she might have runaway, yet the media is still reporting on the case, three months later. So what I am wondering is....Do you think that some parents in other cases, where they think their child did runaway yet is still in danger, are saying that they did not runaway, in order to raise more awareness/concern for the kid? Because they know that if they even say the word, runaway, everyone is going to ignore them. But in this case, Abby's parents don't have that problem, as they can say Abby might have left on her own, and still get media coverage.

Well I live in Maine and a couple of summer's ago my teenage niece came to live with us and she took off. We went straight to the police department and reported her missing and they did nothing. We found out after a couple of weeks that she was staying at a shelter and we were told basically there was nothing that we could do, she did not want to have any rules and it was a living hell worrying about her constantly. She finally came around and turned her life around and is doing well but we didn't get any help at all, not sure if it was because she was 16? But at 16 you should not be out on the streets. So it does seem strange to me as well. How do they know she got in a car in a busy area? They must have received some information somewhere. The board on facebook is pretty quiet and I think people are losing interest and it could be because the LE provides very little information and updates.

 

[AnjL]

While we wait for hopefully good news on Abby, can you all help me spread the word on little 7 yr old Natalie? She was abducted by a stranger in her front yard tonight at gun point :/ CA CA - AMBER ALERT: Natalie Calvos, 7, Antioch, 3 Jan 2014 - Kidnapped By Armed Man - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Edited: thankfully little Natalie is safe and they caught the guy!!


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Everything above is JMO!

 

[cluciano63]

I can only imagine a teen girl running away with a back or backpack with a least a change of clothes and underwear. Could she left stashed a bag on that route she took that day and turned off to retrieve it! And maybe waited a bit until all walkers and buses had passed before continuing on to meet a ride or bus, etc.?

It would be near impossible to determine one missing pair of jeans and a top, i.e. especially if she took things she seldom wore anymore.

If she took nothing, I do not believe she had any sort of plan to leave, unless a BF or someone promised her they would stop and buy clothes on the road.

 

[skibaboo]

I can only imagine a teen girl running away with a back or backpack with a least a change of clothes and underwear. Could she left stashed a bag on that route she took that day and turned off to retrieve it! And maybe waited a bit until all walkers and buses had passed before continuing on to meet a ride or bus, etc.?

It would be near impossible to determine one missing pair of jeans and a top, i.e. especially if she took things she seldom wore anymore.

If she took nothing, I do not believe she had any sort of plan to leave, unless a BF or someone promised her they would stop and buy clothes on the road.

I had a similar thought and posted it in an early thread cluciano. I agree that is what is a sticking point for me, why take nothing if you planned to leave, it doesn't make sense. So did she? I keep going back to what JY said "she left with nothing but the clothes she was wearing" (paraphrasing, and I think it was JY)

My post from Oct 21

skibaboo
Registered User

I have contemplated whether she had packed a bag and hidden it along the trail on her way to school, then collected it on her way to meet someone. But then I thought her mum would know clothing was missing, unless she wasn't up to date with what Abby owned, which is maybe why they aren't able to confirm she made it home or not, mum will have checked to see if anything is missing, maybe mum is unsure?

 

[LittleRose]

A few questions ...

1 - Why is the decription /photo of the large bag Abby was seen carrying at school footage not given but the white purse inside ?

2- Dad's letter was on 4 Nov and Abby's letter arrived on 6 Nov ? How come the totally silent dad somehow emerged with a letter two days prior to Abby's letter?

3- Mom's letter was dated 22 Nov.. Isn't it a bit late reaction to Abby's 6 Nov letter... 16 days is a quiet long time for authentication imo.

4- Dad asked Abby in his letter to post her favorite Bible scripture to let them know she's ok .. If she is safe and warm somewhere why wouldn't she respond again as the dad asked so that everyone would be sure it is her who's reaching out not an abductor.

5- IMO Abby looks much more well-groomed with some make up on the day she disappeared than her usual casual style we see in some photos ...Why?

JMO

1. Good Question!
2. It's almost as if Dad knew there was a letter from "Abby" sitting in Mom's PO Box and posted the letter to Abby, asking for contact, as a way to urge Mom to start checking her out-of-town PO Box.
3. My guess is that after dusting for prints, they probably sent it to multiple experts for analysis. They would have had to analyze a great deal of her writings to see if it was consistent. I could see that this would take some time, especially if some of the results came back as inconclusive.
4. Good point!
5. I can't tell a difference in her prep that day, but you may be right.

 

[MamaJoJo]

Finally, in an attempt to respond to MurderServant's third question...the following is all IMHO...

I was just looking at the messages from ZH to AH on bringabbyhome.com.

The first message to Abby was on 11/10, a few days after ZH received the alleged letter from AH, and it read:

Abby, we love you so, so, so much and we miss you. We pray that you are home soon.
Love,
Mom and Sarah

Then came ZH's first letter to Abby on 11/22 and a Thanksgiving message on 11/28. A week later (12/6) the news of AH's letter broke and that was followed by ZH's second letter to AH on 12/19.

I'm not really sure why I'm bringing this up, actually. But, when I look at the message quoted above (knowing now that they had a letter allegedly from AH), I am caught on the wording "pray that you are home soon." Maybe AH indicated in the letter that she was intending on coming home? They are not saying "we hope you come home soon."

Also, in ZH's first letter (dated 11/22) she repeats a particular phrase twice:

You belong at home with me.

I want you at home with me.

Again, now knowing that they had a letter from AH, possibly she indicated she was with someone? It reads to me that ZH is saying she wants AH home with her as opposed to anyone else.

Thoughts?

 

[cluciano63]

I suspect that upon receipt, the letter did appear to from Abigail, in writing or wording, or what she wrote and then fingerprints and/or DNA backed up that impression. Not sure how they can ever be 100% positive, without finding her and getting the facts. But if it had physical evidence of her, it would not, at least, be some nut job with a hoax.

Any teen girl could remove one spare set of casual wear without her mother being able to tell, IMO. They seem to all have countless leggings, sweats, jeans, tees, etc. So unless she was deprived of a wardrobe I do not know how anyone can be certain she took nothing. She may have even had a change of clothes in her locker.

But I have sen nothing to make me believe she is staying away out of anger, desire to punish a parent, etc. I am not at all convinced she is "okay". JMO

 

[The Cheese]

I don't see how the FBI could determine whether or not a letter was written under duress. Any ideas?

 

[cluciano63]

I don't see how the FBI could determine whether or not a letter was written under duress. Any ideas?

Nothing that would not be a guess, i.e excessive DNA from perspiration meaning nervousness? Key words? But nothing concrete I can think of.

 

[MamaJoJo]

I don't see how the FBI could determine whether or not a letter was written under duress. Any ideas?

I think that's where the "tone" of the letter comes in.
ETA: I should elaborate. LE says the letter had (paraphrasing here) a tone that Abby would use. Maybe, if it were written under duress, that "tone" wouldn't come through as strong because of stress.

 

[geevee]

My feeling is the letter was typed and they could get no conclusive dna or fingerprints so had to resort to whether or not the tone fit Abby's other writings and things her Mom and sister could tell them about the way she talked.

Just moo

 

[The Cheese]

I think that's where the "tone" of the letter comes in.
ETA: I should elaborate. LE says the letter had (paraphrasing here) a tone that Abby would use. Maybe, if it were written under duress, that "tone" wouldn't come through as strong because of stress.

"the tone was a tone Abi would have used"

A tone Abby would have used under duress? A tone Abby would have used if stressed? A tone Abby would have used if relaxed?

No indication.

 

[The Cheese]

Found "forensic linguistics" as the way they determine whether something was likely or not likely written by someone. I think that's the "tone" they were talking about, whether it was language that Abby uses.

Looking for something about how they determine if something was written under duress.

http://www.iafl.org/

ETA

Areas dealt with in this title include authorship identification, which obviously seeks to discover who wrote what and how much of it. Less obvious is mode identification which works on ascertaining whether a text was produced by speech, writing or some combination of both, e.g. part self-written, part dictated, perhaps under duress.

 

[Donna64]

Maybe by tone they mean attitude? Parents will say to a child, "Do not use that tone with me." Tone to me describes a negative attitude not a positive one. JMO

 

[The Cheese]

Maybe by tone they mean attitude? Parents will say to a child, "Do not use that tone with me." Tone to me describes a negative attitude not a positive one. JMO

If tone meant negative in and of itself, then parents would say "don't use tone with me", rather than "don't use *that* tone with me".

Tone can be negative, positive, cheerful, angry, depressed, sad, happy, mournful, and on and on.

 

[Donna64]

I don't know where your from cheese, but we, here in New England say"Do not use "that" tone with me." And believe me, it is not said in a positive "tone." Just putting in my two cents here.

 

[Spider92]

Finally, in an attempt to respond to MurderServant's third question...the following is all IMHO...

I was just looking at the messages from ZH to AH on bringabbyhome.com.

The first message to Abby was on 11/10, a few days after ZH received the alleged letter from AH, and it read:

Then came ZH's first letter to Abby on 11/22 and a Thanksgiving message on 11/28. A week later (12/6) the news of AH's letter broke and that was followed by ZH's second letter to AH on 12/19.

I'm not really sure why I'm bringing this up, actually. But, when I look at the message quoted above (knowing now that they had a letter allegedly from AH), I am caught on the wording "pray that you are home soon." Maybe AH indicated in the letter that she was intending on coming home? They are not saying "we hope you come home soon."

Also, in ZH's first letter (dated 11/22) she repeats a particular phrase twice:


Again, now knowing that they had a letter from AH, possibly she indicated she was with someone? It reads to me that ZH is saying she wants AH home with her as opposed to anyone else.

Thoughts?

I've found some of ZH's wording to be unusual. At first, I tried to attach some significance to her choice of words. After watching an interview though, I began to wonder if English is not her first language and that her word selection is less important than we would think. Do we know where she was raised?

 

[Donna64]

Russia?