OR OR - Stephanie Warner, 43, Ruch, 4 Jul 2013 - #1

[Lilibet]

I just woke up, and my eyes aren't focused.

Did you use the word "snailest"?

You made me laugh!

No focus here either. Last night I read it "smallest" and thought typo. "Snailest" is a perfect word. It was a great post and captured our frustration perfectly, by the way.
:goodpost:

 

[OldSteve]

For some reason, I have a feeling this case will be solved... don't know why.... perhaps because it's the work you folks on this thread are doing and your prodding LE.. they seem to be getting more motivated...

Better late than never asking for tips about seeing her car...

 

[CluelessWonder]

For some reason, I have a feeling this case will be solved... don't know why.... perhaps because it's the work you folks on this thread are doing and your prodding LE.. they seem to be getting more motivated...

Better late than never asking for tips about seeing her car...

I hope you are correct. My concern is that the area is rural, and the search area is huge. I hope they have a way to narrow down the search area.

 

[mayelf]

So two things to remember about this area imho, we have a huge lack of le funding which causes some concern. A nearby county was actuallyon the news announcing they could only attend to major 911 calls. It was bizarre that they were on the news saying this but I th. ink it was there way of pleading for funds. Anyways the second is there is wild animals, lakes, rivers, millions of unused logging roads, old caves. Unless they had a lot of volunteers they would never cover the ground needed but I don't think it would be safe either to walk in these areas. Too much of a possibility getting lost, snake bit, or running into wildlife. The best bet is someone coming forwarrd with information so I think rallying volunteers to hand out fliers and speaking to the locals would be helpful. Especially since the only flier I saw didn't include much information. Jacksonville and ruch and applegate are all areas that would benefit from up to date fliers. I'm not sure the level of coverage there has been in that area so I am hoping this has already been done.

 

[mayelf]

Sorry for the crappy writing in the post, my phone is a pain to use for typing.

 

[Neptune]

No focus here either. Last night I read it "smallest" and thought typo. "Snailest" is a perfect word. It was a great post and captured our frustration perfectly, by the way.
:goodpost:

Ha, thank you!

I thought a made-up adverb expressing "most snail-like" was appropriate at this juncture. Let's hope we won't have to use it anymore.

 

[Lilibet]

So two things to remember about this area imho, we have a huge lack of le funding which causes some concern. A nearby county was actuallyon the news announcing they could only attend to major 911 calls. It was bizarre that they were on the news saying this but I th. ink it was there way of pleading for funds. Anyways the second is there is wild animals, lakes, rivers, millions of unused logging roads, old caves. Unless they had a lot of volunteers they would never cover the ground needed but I don't think it would be safe either to walk in these areas. Too much of a possibility getting lost, snake bit, or running into wildlife. The best bet is someone coming forwarrd with information so I think rallying volunteers to hand out fliers and speaking to the locals would be helpful. Especially since the only flier I saw didn't include much information. Jacksonville and ruch and applegate are all areas that would benefit from up to date fliers. I'm not sure the level of coverage there has been in that area so I am hoping this has already been done.

BBM

I agree that the lack of funding is a huge problem. This isn't the only case they have. They're looking for a suspect in a stabbing and investigating a shooting, to name two current stories on the JCSO Facebook page. They need all the help they can get.

It wouldn't be at all safe for volunteers to search out in the woods. I would add pot gardens to your list of dangers. Growers are often armed and dangerous.

I'm wondering if Stephanie's family or NOLA friends could beg the Jackson County Fuel Committee where Stephanie volunteered to spend a day blanketing the Jacksonville/Applegate area with updated fliers. Their phone is 541-488-2905.

Another local resource might be the Applegate Christian Fellowship, not far from Stephanie's house. We don't know if she attended services there, but she did have Bible verses on her FB page. They have a huge attendance on Sunday from all over the Rogue Valley. Perhaps they would give permission to put fliers on windshields in their parking lot. http://www.applegatefellowship.org/contact.asp

It seems that it would be more compelling if these requests come from Stephanie's family or friends from far away at this point, since it doesn't appear that her local friends are organizing anything. I'm really sad that she doesn't have one local friend who is a go-getter about keeping this publicized. Unless JCSO doesn't want "interference" for some reason. Or, her friends have their suspicions and are afraid to get involved. I'm totally amazed at the silence.

 

[Neptune]

Interesting what Edmunds says about the 2004 Xterra:
"A truck-based compact sport-ute for those who actually plan to go off-roading."

This is really good info, Lilibet – it validates the fact that Stephanie's vehicle has the capability of navigating the logging roads around the Jacksonville-Ruch-Applegate area that mayelf speaks of. I've looked around Google Earth both in the mountainous area around Ruch and also Applegate Lake (farther South). There are lots of roads -- some well-traversed, but very steep. A few areas show lots of ATV/dirt bike activity -- easily seen from above.

Also, important to note: there are houses (some with swimming pools) very far into the forested areas. I don't know about the zoning laws there - but where I live you, if you build a house in the boonies, you MUST by law also build a paved road wide enough for a firetruck to access your property. If this is the same case in the Ruch area, it means the roads into the mountains -- at least way into the mountain area -- would be paved. Then off-shoot dirt roads from there. BLM maps show a whole network of roads. Many of these roads can be accessed on the various routes from Ashland to Ruch. In fact, there are roads that trail off for many miles and then come back around to main roads.

So:
1. The two main routes from Ashland to Ruch present many opportunities, especially around the Jacksonville area, to turn a vehicle onto a paved road that would lead far into a mountainous area. These paved roads present many opportunities to go “off-road”. Stephanie's vehicle had the capability of navigating “off-road”.

2. Stephanie and her boyfriend took a route from Ashland to Ruch.

3. Stephanie was only seen by one person (the boyfriend) who has so far been unable to substantiate her presence in the Ruch Country Store parking lot. It is possible that Stephanie was never at the store.

 

[deca]

Stephanie's case has gotten good coverage here: newspapers, internet news and TV news. As far as searching- the local SAR teams here are good- they are used to looking for people in the woods and in rough terrain.

As far as her being found- well, I can't speak to that. Honestly you can have the best resources in the world looking for her but the shear amount of trees, canyons, creek beds, rock formations- the thick overhead canopy and dense undergrowth- it just makes it really hard.

Even though some people feel that this might be "small time" LE- this area deals with a lot of people ( 250k) and the police and sheriffs are well trained. Even though resources are tight (like most cities now) I bet you that they have been investigating this case pretty throughly.

JMO JMO JMO

 

[Neptune]

I wonder if there is any evidence on the outside of the vehicle that would point to where it has been. IIRC the type of mud and plant residue on Whitney Heichel's vehicle helped searchers find Whitney on Larch Mountain.

Sorry folks who don't know the Whitney Heichel case, but there are some parallels in that an SUV vehicle was involved, as well as country roads. So I'd like to comment on Lilibet's post…

I also closely followed Whitney's case. My opinion did not support the version Gresham LE gave about the forensics on Whitney’s SUV wheel finding her body on an off-road 10 miles up Larch Mountain. Since the whole terrain of Larch has much of the same soil/plant residue, I believe it wasn’t the forensics on her car but that LE was tipped off as to the exact place of her body. Or, most likely, the sheer manpower of the Jehovah Witness grid-search was so thorough that they found her in no time. LE may have been able to match tire treads to that specific place she was found to confirm the SUV was there – but that was done after she was found. In other words, the forensics from the tire didn’t lead them to investigate that one little spot 10 miles up a mountain – the evidence only confirmed that her vehicle had been at the place and the tread marks matched (and Holt’s confession was key). LE credited their forensic work to finding her and really it couldn’t have in that short amount of time and given the vastness of the area. Just my opinion. Nonetheless, awesome work by LE in that case.

In Whitney’s case they were attempting to use the forensics found on the vehicle to determine PLACE. But what forensics in Stephanie’s case would be evidence of a vehicle being operated during a specific TIME? A subscription-based GPS service like Onstar is pretty expensive and it would have verified she was at the store.

“Detectives have evidence that Warner’s green 2004 Nissan Xterra was operated late in the evening on July 4th, 2013, into the early morning of July 5th, 2013.”

Operated is a different word than Driven
Into is a different word than Or
I do scrutinize words because I once wrote many press releases that had to be run by Legal. Every word was chosen carefully for meaning -- some of them for clarity, some of them for lack of clarity.

Either some device in or on the vehicle that interfaces remotely with some kind of server that could log the activity?
Or, surveillance footage of the vehicle during that time period?
Or, as CluelessWonder says… an eyewitness?

 

[deca]

“Detectives have evidence that Warner’s green 2004 Nissan Xterra was operated late in the evening on July 4th, 2013, into the early morning of July 5th, 2013.”

Operated is a different word than Driven
Into is a different word than Or
I do scrutinize words because I once wrote many press releases that had to be run by Legal. Every word was chosen carefully for meaning -- some of them for clarity, some of them for lack of clarity.

Either some device in or on the vehicle that interfaces remotely with some kind of server that could log the activity?
Or, surveillance footage of the vehicle during that time period?
Or, as CluelessWonder says… an eyewitness?

Very good, Neptune. I puzzled over this as well. The only other thing I could come up with is if they have BOTH records of her filling up her tank that day AND a witness that saw the car parked from the afternoon to the evening of the 4th in the driveway. In that way, (if the tank was low) they could surmise that the car had been driven sometime in the night and returned in the early morning.

 

[Neptune]

Very good, Neptune. I puzzled over this as well. The only other thing I could come up with is if they have BOTH records of her filling up her tank that day AND a witness that saw the car parked from the afternoon to the evening of the 4th in the driveway. In that way, (if the tank was low) they could surmise that the car had been driven sometime in the night and returned in the early morning.

Gas math. Good deduction, deca!

 

[CluelessWonder]

Maybe someone who knew Stephanie went by her house late that night or early the next morning or both and noticed that her SUV was gone.

 

[Lilibet]

Snipped for brevity

So:
1. The two main routes from Ashland to Ruch present many opportunities, especially around the Jacksonville area, to turn a vehicle onto a paved road that would lead far into a mountainous area. These paved roads present many opportunities to go “off-road”. Stephanie's vehicle had the capability of navigating “off-road”.

2. Stephanie and her boyfriend took a route from Ashland to Ruch.

3. Stephanie was only seen by one person (the boyfriend) who has so far been unable to substantiate her presence in the Ruch Country Store parking lot. It is possible that Stephanie was never at the store.

1. There are many long driveways and even some county roads that are not paved. But paved or unpaved, yes, there are certainly off road opportunities en route from Ashland to Ruch.

2. We don't know for sure that she took her vehicle to Ashland, although it seems likely. Presumably LE knows. Her boyfriend's son played music on the float Stephanie walked beside. I believe his wife rode the float too. Did they all ride into town together to make parking easier? Did boyfriend actually ride home with her or his son or? Nothing is known for sure.

3. What I think you are theorizing is that something "happened to" Stephanie in an off road area between Ashland and Ruch before arriving back in Ruch. No one can place her back in Ruch except her bf. He says around 5:00, but who knows. Her Facebook game at 6:08 isn't conclusive.

Regarding what you said in another post about what LE may mean about her vehicle being "operated" vs "driven" into the early hours of July 5, how do you think that ties in with 1, 2 and 3? Not disagreeing, just trying to wrap my mind around all this. Then again, maybe it's best if we keep our conclusions vague.

 

[Neptune]

We don't know for sure that she took her vehicle to Ashland, although it seems likely. Presumably LE knows. Her boyfriend's son played music on the float Stephanie walked beside. I believe his wife rode the float too. Did they all ride into town together to make parking easier? Did boyfriend actually ride home with her or his son or? Nothing is known for sure.

I don't believe it has been established by LE that it was her SUV that was driven - it could have been his car, or a third-party. I was just making a connection (hopefully logically) between the various facts to see if they fit.

What I think you are theorizing is that something "happened to" Stephanie in an off road area between Ashland and Ruch before arriving back in Ruch. No one can place her back in Ruch except her bf. He says around 5:00, but who knows. Her Facebook game at 6:08 isn't conclusive.

You got my take on it correctly - this is my theory for now. I have never bought the "she was at the store" story from Day One. Now, if they find those young men and they say she was at the store, then... ok.

Now, to poke holes in my own theory, Applegate Lake and the Steamboat Mining District are quite a distance PAST Ruch. But somehow, in my little mind, they factor in. There are also many gold mining areas in the hills around Jacksonville and Ruch. Someone interested in mining, would likely know those areas well.

Regarding what you said in another post about what LE may mean about her vehicle being "operated" vs "driven" into the early hours of July 5, how do you think that ties in with 1, 2 and 3?

This was just a remark about the LE statement -- not sure that it ties in directly with the earlier post. I was just curious about the word choice.

 

[Lilibet]

Very good, Neptune. I puzzled over this as well. The only other thing I could come up with is if they have BOTH records of her filling up her tank that day AND a witness that saw the car parked from the afternoon to the evening of the 4th in the driveway. In that way, (if the tank was low) they could surmise that the car had been driven sometime in the night and returned in the early morning.

So that seems to indicate that, if she actually did drive to Ashland in the morning, her car made it back in the afternoon, but then left again and returned early in the morning. Based on average mileage and gas used, a distance could be determined.

So it's possible that, rather than something happening to her on the way home from Ashland, she came home, rested a bit and went out later, perhaps to see or set off fireworks or stay with someone. Then something happened and the car was used to take her to a hiding place, and returned to her home early in the morning.

OR...As Neptune theorized, it happened on the way home from Ashland. The car was returned to her house, but picked up later and used for some reason.

I think my head is spinning! :scared:

 

[mayelf]

Off-roading is a normal thing here and I guarantee a lot of homes out in the boonies do not have paved roads to their homes. I could go take some photos on Tuesday for people who are curious of the terrain around where she lives. There are some main unpaved or gravel roads, like one that goes around Jacksonville. People tend to use it to avoid driving 20mph through Jacksonville. The cops are sticklers about speed there. Jacksonville is also a beautiful old mining town.

Also about LE - they also are busy spending a lot of time and resources on the drugs in the area.

I will have time at the end of the month to help with fliers if needed.

I wonder if the blow device was what helped them tell when her car was driven?

 

[Lilibet]

You got my take on it correctly - this is my theory for now. I have never bought the "she was at the store" story from Day One. Now, if they find those young men and they say she was at the store, then... ok.

Now, to poke holes in my own theory, Applegate Lake and the Steamboat Mining District are quite a distance PAST Ruch. But somehow, in my little mind, they factor in. There are also many gold mining areas in the hills around Jacksonville and Ruch. Someone interested in mining, would likely know those areas well.

Thanks for your response to my questions, Neptune.

I'm inclined to think that Applegate Lake and the Steamboat mining district factor in quite well if you accept the "parted at the store" story. Both go to their separate homes and she drives out there to his place near the lake later in the evening. Or she went somewhere with another "friend" who knows the mining area well. Whoever returned her car knows her, and either lives nearby or had help getting back home. IMO

Is there a motive for foul play, or was this an accident covered up?

 

[Lilibet]

I read through product literature for alcohol monitoring technology and now it makes sense.

The product info says:
The device’s microchip records, dates, and time stamps all events including breath test results, tampering attempts, engine starts/stops, retest results and more.

You're GOOD!!! :thewave:

 

[mayelf]

It just upsets me that the Ashland newspaper posted her new update about her vehicle for half a day. I understand that it is a bit of a distance from Ruch but at the same time it is close enough that a lot of people from Ashland are going to pass through to go to the lakes and rivers out there. I just can't help but think, if it was me, I would want the whole planet interested in finding me. (A little bit of a self centered thought lol, but still the point stands) It hasn't even been a month yet and the more time that passes the more people are going to forget. So instead their top stories are about homeless people numbers rising, who cares. I tend to think most people are going to read the paper on Saturday and if they cannot even post her story for half of a day how are people going to see it. ARGH! Sorry for my news rant but I just feel for this lady that I don't know and I want every resource possible working for her.

eta - I do care about the homeless people, just not the way they are writing about it. You'd have to be there to understand. I was ranting and sorry if that came off as insincere.