PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #13

[BigCat]

Long time lurker, finally decided to post.

I have a few theories on this, but here's one I keep coming back to: I think Ray is in witness protection. I think he stumbled upon something big - maybe something that involved Centre County or the Commonwealth - and he felt like his safety was compromised, so he reached out to the Feds. It's almost impossible for a public figure to go into witness protection without those under investigation catching wind of it, so they did their best to make it appear like a walkaway. Where he is now, I do not know. But he went to Detroit, where one of the larger FBI regional offices is (and one that coincidentally specializes in public corruption investigations) as well as one of the larger US Marshal district offices (in fact, they are a block from one another). Why Detroit? Well, one of the larger district FBI and US Marshal offices, its close, and pretty much any other close city in Ohio or PA has him running the risk of being caught (since he spent time in both states). Spends a few weeks in Detroit, talks to investigators. At some point gets seen in Southfield. Now, he's living God knows where. But he hasn't come out of witness protection yet, because whatever case he's helping out with is still ongoing. I did some work with the FBI before, and even in the small case with which I was involved, the investigation has taken years. For a large RICO or public corruption case, it's not inconceivable for an investigation to take over a decade, especially if its targeting powerful people, because when the arrest warrants finally come down, the case has to be absolutely air-tight.

It's just a theory I have, but I feel like it's as good as any. It would explain why he was so intent on ensuring the data on his hard drive would NOT be able to be recovered, among other things. If it helps, the Wilkes-Barre office of the US Marshal handles that district's federal protective services. I think its been mentioned there was a sighting in Wilkes-Barre. Not sure if that's one that people considered credible or not.

Anyway, that's my theory. Regardless, I think it's safe to say that Ray went away, but in such a way that he did not want to be found, and went great lengths to ensure he wasn't found. What the reason would be, I do not know. But a former DA - from an area that has revealed itself to be more and more corrupt over the years - going into witness protection is not out of the realm of possibility.

This scenario would be more plausible to me if RFG's disappearance occurred closer to the time Sandusky was arrested. What else is currently going on or has gone in Centre County that approaches the level of scandal of the Sandusky/PSU mess?

After all, there is plenty corruption in all parts of the country and DA don't disappear into the witness protection program very often, if ever.

JMO

 

[gracehatter]

There are some problems with the Witness Security Program scenario.

1. The program does inform at least one family member.

The one and only television program I've seen about RG, about 3 times now, I'd have a hard time believing his partner at the time who spoke was faking her grief...she just looked too wounded and in disbelief to me. I suspect the one family member they would have told if this were the case would have been the daughter and I'm sure she would have shared it with the LTP.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

PEF (the girlfriend) and LG (the daughter) both passed a polygraph.

The real problem that I have with this is that if this was the way to put him in WSP, they did nothing but create more publicity. Even if in May or June 2005, they would have announced it, no one would be talking about it, at least until the Sandusky case.

 

[Trackergd]

If it were planned well in advance, how many of us could make it to Lewisburg for a Saturday or Sunday? I have been planning to go, J.J. has been there and I suspect he would go again (I would drive).

Perhaps what is not obvious to us sitting at our computers, may be obvious in person.

Oddly enough, one of my ancestors founded Lewisburg, then went missing on a trip to Philadelphia.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If it were planned well in advance, how many of us could make it to Lewisburg for a Saturday or Sunday? I have been planning to go, J.J. has been there and I suspect he would go again (I would drive).

Perhaps what is not obvious to us sitting at our computers, may be obvious in person.

Oddly enough, one of my ancestors founded Lewisburg, then went missing on a trip to Philadelphia.

I would, schedule permitting.

 

[SuperSmith]

I've seen a lot of "followers" here that blindly march to the "Walkaway" beat. That of course is your right to be led by someone you believe knows more than you. It's human nature.

I wonder though if the intent was to purposely disappear and to not want to be found wouldn't it have been a better idea to go ahead retire, breakup with the girlfriend and then take off sans the dramatic mystery and Lewisburg stage? Also maybe saying to his loved ones "I'm taking off for a couple weeks" giving himself a big headstart?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I've seen a lot of "followers" here that blindly march to the "Walkaway" beat. That of course is your right to be led by someone you believe knows more than you. It's human nature.

I wonder though if the intent was to purposely disappear and to not want to be found wouldn't it have been a better idea to go ahead retire, breakup with the girlfriend and then take off sans the dramatic mystery and Lewisburg stage? Also maybe saying to his loved ones "I'm taking off for a couple weeks" giving himself a big headstart?

The "dramatic mystery" might have been part of it. Lewisburg was less of a "stage" that it was an area where he wouldn't likely be recognized. That can play into all three scenarios.

In past practices, RFG did take off briefly without telling anyone. He may thought, if he walked away, that it would be taken for just another such case, and he'd have more time.

I also do not agree with the characterization "'followers'" marching blindly to the "'Walkaway' beat." One scenario that is walkaway would the Witness Security Program. A number of us have described the problems with that scenario.

 

[SeekingJana]

I've seen a lot of "followers" here that blindly march to the "Walkaway" beat. That of course is your right to be led by someone you believe knows more than you. It's human nature.

I wonder though if the intent was to purposely disappear and to not want to be found wouldn't it have been a better idea to go ahead retire, breakup with the girlfriend and then take off sans the dramatic mystery and Lewisburg stage? Also maybe saying to his loved ones "I'm taking off for a couple weeks" giving himself a big headstart?

I think that if ANY of us were smart enough to figure out what happened to him when, we would have solved this case years ago. Whether he was/is alive or dead, by accidental or purposeful means, someone would have solved it.
None of us have, none of us can, so relax and post with us .

 

[SuperSmith]

The "dramatic mystery" might have been part of it. Lewisburg was less of a "stage" that it was an area where he wouldn't likely be recognized. That can play into all three scenarios.

In past practices, RFG did take off briefly without telling anyone. He may thought, if he walked away, that it would be taken for just another such case, and he'd have more time.

I also do not agree with the characterization "'followers'" marching blindly to the "'Walkaway' beat." One scenario that is walkaway would the Witness Security Program. A number of us have described the problems with that scenario.

I would think it a reasonable conclusion that if walkaway was the intent that he'd want to keep a lower profile and disappear from a lessor busy location. After all you have noted several "eyewitnesses" correct?

Also part of the dramatic I speak of is the mere fact that the Lewisburg scene mirrors his own brothers scene per Tony Gricar. Dramatic mystery

 

[SuperSmith]

Philly, do you know whether Fornicola still has the Mini?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Philly, do you know whether Fornicola still has the Mini?

I don't know, but it would be nearly 11 years old at this point.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I would think it a reasonable conclusion that if walkaway was the intent that he'd want to keep a lower profile and disappear from a lessor busy location. After all you have noted several "eyewitnesses" correct?

Also part of the dramatic I speak of is the mere fact that the Lewisburg scene mirrors his own brothers scene per Tony Gricar. Dramatic mystery

It wasn't a place where he would be redily be recognized. RFG, though not someone who tried to get publicity, was fairly recognizable in the Central Pennsylvania Media Market (CPMM). He would be very recognizable anyplace roughly from Indiana to the eastern border of Centre County and to the state line in either direction. Lewisburg isn't in that market.

http://www.pahouse.com/MediaList/

He could also blend in with people, as opposed to a guy standing in a field. It would also be easier to meet someone (which ties into foul play (a clandestine meeting) or voluntary departure).

The site is not that similar. It has a river and a railroad bridge (and so do other towns along the Susquehanna), as does. It has a third bridge and is the town is substantially large in Hamilton, OH where Roy Gricar committed suicide. There are big differences, but it would be a location where RFG could have committed suicide be jumping in the river. No body turned up.

As an aside, I assumed that his body would have been fished out of the river by the fall of 2005, had he jumped.

 

[MissJ]

I've seen a lot of "followers" here that blindly march to the "Walkaway" beat. That of course is your right to be led by someone you believe knows more than you. It's human nature.

I wonder though if the intent was to purposely disappear and to not want to be found wouldn't it have been a better idea to go ahead retire, breakup with the girlfriend and then take off sans the dramatic mystery and Lewisburg stage? Also maybe saying to his loved ones "I'm taking off for a couple weeks" giving himself a big headstart?

ITA. Makes the most sense to me.

 

[MissJ]

It wasn't a place where he would be redily be recognized. RFG, though not someone who tried to get publicity, was fairly recognizable in the Central Pennsylvania Media Market (CPMM). He would be very recognizable anyplace roughly from Indiana to the eastern border of Centre County and to the state line in either direction. Lewisburg isn't in that market.

http://www.pahouse.com/MediaList/

He could also blend in with people, as opposed to a guy standing in a field. It would also be easier to meet someone (which ties into foul play (a clandestine meeting) or voluntary departure).

The site is not that similar. It has a river and a railroad bridge (and so do other towns along the Susquehanna), as does. It has a third bridge and is the town is substantially large in Hamilton, OH where Roy Gricar committed suicide. There are big differences, but it would be a location where RFG could have committed suicide be jumping in the river. No body turned up.

As an aside, I assumed that his body would have been fished out of the river by the fall of 2005, had he jumped.

Roy committed suicide in Hamilton? He had been working at Wright Pat in Fairborn. One would assume he lived in that area. Hamilton is more than hour away. My ex worked there same time as Roy. We lived in Xenia-Beavercreek areas.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Roy committed suicide in Hamilton? He had been working at Wright Pat in Fairborn. One would assume he lived in that area. Hamilton is more than hour away. My ex worked there same time as Roy. We lived in Xenia-Beavercreek areas.

Yes, there is also that. There was a relatively long drive, which was similar. Roy did not communicate from the road.

While I think suicide is the least likely of the three possibilities, I would not rule it out. I do not, however, think RFG jumped, was pushed , or was dumped, into in the Susquehanna.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Right now, I'd give the odds, based on what has been public disclosed.

Voluntary Departure (Walkaway): 58% likely (+6).
Victim of Foul Play (Primarily Murder): 31% likely (-13).
Suicide: 10% likely (+7).
Something else: 1% likely.

Probable isn't proof.

 

[SuperSmith]

The site is not that similar. It has a river and a railroad bridge (and so do other towns along the Susquehanna), as does. It has a third bridge and is the town is substantially large in Hamilton, OH where Roy Gricar committed suicide. There are big differences, but it would be a location where RFG could have committed suicide be jumping in the river. No body turned up.

Tony Gricar and other family have said otherwise and in fact that was their exact thought upon arriving to Lewisburg. It was, the scene, the same and many shows and interviews support this. I think it's safe to say we should believe what the family has said.

 

[SuperSmith]

You're straying away from my point as usual which is if Ray's disappearance is "voluntary" then why the need for the dramatic disappearance? It would have been a lot less attention getting by retiring and riding off into the sunset without local PD, PSP, and FBI looking for him.

The only voluntary departure I would buy into would one that was actually forced by threat to his family.

 

[MissJ]

Roy's death records indicate that he died in Dayton, Ohio which is Montgomery county. That is a long way away from Hamilton, Ohio. Which is correct?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Not according to his son.