PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #15

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Just to be clear, most of the time that a DA (or ADA) is working, is not arguing cases in court. Nationally, about 90% of all cases end in plea bargains.

The out of court activities would include looking up case law, reviewing statutes, interviewing witnesses, writing arguments for motions (that they initiated or counter arguments), negotiating plea deals, even preparing and rehearsing their opening and closing arguments.

As DA, an additional part of RFG's job was seeing that everyone else did their jobs, possibly including making changes in the motions. JKA noted that RFG had established protocols for doing this. Doing those things would be part of the day to day operations, but if he wasn't there, someone else will do it. This would apply if he was home sick, on vacation, or otherwise tied up.

Unless RFG was prosecuting the case himself, he would not be talking to witnesses, or writing the motions.
 
Just dropping in to let you folks know I am still alive, but working 6-7 days a week. Still want to to a real physical test with simulated drives and laptop to see if they could be dropped off the bridge by someone driving a mini, or if it required a second person, and then to see which scenario is more probable, tossing the drive from the bridge or throwing it from the park. My last boots on the ground trip around the same time of year and conditions rule out throwing the laptop from the park. Still trying to figure out how to get my hands on a mini for the tests. I'll have family members shoot digital video from the marker on the bridge and from the park when I get this all figured out and set up. J.J., do you think the radio station would pony up to rent me a mini for a couple of hours?
 
Respectfully Snipped

Still trying to figure out how to get my hands on a mini for the tests. I'll have family members shoot digital video from the marker on the bridge and from the park when I get this all figured out and set up. J.J., do you think the radio station would pony up to rent me a mini for a couple of hours?

Are you joking? :)

Seriously, the measurements of a 2004 Mini Cooper are probably available. You could simulate it using those.
 
Just dropping in to let you folks know I am still alive, but working 6-7 days a week. Still want to to a real physical test with simulated drives and laptop to see if they could be dropped off the bridge by someone driving a mini, or if it required a second person, and then to see which scenario is more probable, tossing the drive from the bridge or throwing it from the park. My last boots on the ground trip around the same time of year and conditions rule out throwing the laptop from the park. Still trying to figure out how to get my hands on a mini for the tests. I'll have family members shoot digital video from the marker on the bridge and from the park when I get this all figured out and set up. J.J., do you think the radio station would pony up to rent me a mini for a couple of hours?

Good to see you. Tracker! I've been away for a bit too.
How about taking a Mini Cooper for a test drive? I have no idea whether there is a Mini dealer anywhere near Lewisburg, or a large used car dealer like CarMax which has almost every make and model for the past 5 years or so, but it might be a way to toss a laptop and gauge your results.

If you do get to sit in one, please note the extra- deep footwells, and if you're near Ray's height, would you see how much of the passenger floorboard is visible from the driver's seat?
Now that I've asked all this because it ties in with the cigarette ash found, contact me if you need some funding help. Seriously.
 
I don't know if this will help, but here are the Mini's stats:

2004 MINI Cooper Specs: 2-Door Coupe Specifications

I can tell you that my car is wider, closer to the ground than a Mini, and that shorter with shorter reach than RFG. At least while stopped and sitting on the driver's side, could easily throw something about the size and weight of the laptop of the passenger side window and easily clear a 34-36 inch barrier a foot from the window. I actually simulated it.

Physically, it was quite possible for RFG to have driven the Mini in the westbound lane of bridge in Lewisburg and toss the laptop. It would be possible for someone else to drive another vehicle across the bridge and toss it. Likewise, it would be possible for someone from the passenger side of a vehicle to toss it.

The only question I would have is that, if a driver would toss it, he'd likely slow down or stop for 1-4 seconds. Are their times when a driver could do that without being rear-ended by the car behind him, especially on a spring weekend?
 
When considering the visibility of cigarette ash from the driver's side, without leaning over while driving or getting out the other side of the car ( which no one usually does), are the measurements which matter most the front leg room and passenger capacity ?
A few measurements are missing such as passenger hip room, so I'd think these two might be the two to compare to other vehicles. I'll try to get my car's specs up for comparison as I cannot reach MANY things in the passenger side floorboard unless I get out and go around and pick the item up, but I USUALLY can see most things which fall out of my purse, tote, mouth, ( mostly j/k there, lol.)

Mini Cooper 2004:

Interior Dimensions ( I only selected these 2 from the list of measurements):
Front Leg Room (in)41.3
Passenger Volume (ft³)77.0

Edited to add: My car, which is a large model BMW of 2 years' age, has these pertinent measurements for the interior:
Front Leg Room (in) 41.4 ( AND THIS IS THE FLAGSHIP BMW automobile!)

Here's the link to all the specs for my car which is a large car by 2017- 2018 standards, IMO.
2017 BMW 7-Series Specs: 740i Sedan Specifications

The curb weight and length are going to vary tremendously, but look what BMW put into the Mini Cooper 14 years ago as far as roominess for front passenger and driver! It's amazing and I wouldn't have believed it matched the BMW 7 series 740i in 2017 minus 1/10th an inch unless I'd read it for myself. I knew the Mini was spectacularly roomy in the front leg room and all from my test drive around that year but wow!

I didn't want to clutter up Ray's thread with my car's doodads, hence the link, but Bavarian Motor Works made the Mini Cooper with an excellent passenger cage for the overall size and price of the car. I do not know how a 2017 or 2018 would compare, but we don't need to know that, do we?

Regarding the " throwing the laptop off the bridge and tying up traffic" question, maybe we need to think of this in terms of daylight vs. darkness or near- darkness and amount of traffic at different times that college parents' weekend.
I do not live anywhere near the area, but would still love to see where he probably disappeared, so I can't give any guesstimate as to traffic patterns.

However, I think I've driven long enough and well enough to determine how I'd personally " rig" a necessary laptop's dunk into the deep... First, I would assume that someone WAS watching or able to see my car. Maybe not me, personally, but the car. I'd do the following, probably, and expect that Ray would also employ a law- abiding subterfuge of very short duration ( time it takes to open a door and toss, and make sure the thing hit the water).
Slow down, put emergency flashers on.
Stop the car.
Pop trunk lid and hood latch up. ( Don't scoff. A lot of people mix them up which is a valid excuse, and besides, 2 up are better than 1 up).
The driver is signaling that they likely have a car malfunction, right? Maybe there is a car or two behind him, but maybe not depending on time of day or evening or night.

Get out of the car on the passenger side for safety and have the laptop either within arm's reach or already in hand.
Open the door nearest the water, the passenger's side unless PA has British driving rules.
With 3 protective " lids" of sorts up and open, toss the laptop while sitting inside the Mini Cooper or standing just outside the car, as a person fiddling with a part might do, still on passenger's side for personal safety and throwing accuracy.

Who's going to be looking OVER the bridge's side to see it go in? Remember, door is open on passenger side, as is trunk and hood, providing great cover for the throw.
Fiddle around a bit with a cloth or whatever it is that men do when their cars stop instead of calling AAA, and close all lids and doors, and drive slowly away, more slowly than usual, flashers off, just being cautious with that troublesome "whatever" that caused a light to come on.

Also, another thing that might be interesting to know. I've owned cars from Audis to Volvos ( back when they were owned and made in Sweden by Volvo), and almost all domestic models in between A and V.
The BMW autos have MORE warning lights than any car I've ever dreamed could have. This is my 3rd consecutive BMW, and hubby also has one, and I still have to call him sometimes and ask him " Why is this little mark by the mini image of the car yellow on the rear passenger's side?" or something equally obscure.
It is not out of the question, therefore, that the same company built the Mini Cooper with the same elaborately precise ( maddening and distracting in reality) warning light system for almost all components. What this means is that if Ray had been questioned by a police officer or anyone else, for that matter about why he stopped, and had turned the engine off, which resets all the yellow " early warning lights" ( not to be confused with the " Do something to FIX me, ASAP" red warning lights which also number about 40 or more) he would have a readily answerable question about needing to check his engine or that the light said the trunk was ajar or a windshield wiper needed replacing ( not really but there are warnings for the windshield blade things).

I hope this is making sense. It totally does to me, as someone who does pull over fairly frequently because a yellow light I've never seen before comes on in the detailed miniature led display of my car, and I have to either know what it's warning me of happening in the future or how to turn it off, or call someone who does know if the light happens to be the very rare red true warning color instead of the yellow worrisome colored light.
Note, there are also outdoor temperature and hazardous driving condition alert warnings in the BMWs. Not sure if the Minis go to this extreme, but by all accounts, he wouldn't have had an outdoor temperature alarm or the like come on in April.
 
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What I didn't say but meant to is that if he stood by the hood, and threw the laptop like we'd ( and he) would throw a Frisbee, what might be seen by one or two possible passers by in the other lane would be a Frisbee- deep or a tiny bit greater thing thrown by a likely man of average appearance, in a shiny almost new bright red Mini Cooper ( and isn't it pretty, Mom?). They would see the CAR back then, not the thin laptop being thrown with a twist of the wrist into the Susquehanna River.

Don't you think? Or, avoid ALL this and just get up and do it at night, which I wouldn't even have to THINK about... unless someone wanted the data and I was determined they weren't going to get it.
 
I cannot reach something on the floor of my car while driving, but I could easily pick up something laying on the passenger side seat. The sole thing that I would be worried about is that my car would rear ended. Even that can be taken care of with too much of a problem. Doing it night would probably be better than during the day.

Lewisburg is on the west (Bellefonte) side of the bridge. On the east of the bridge is a four way traffic light. There is an intersection at the east side of the bridge. Someone could not drive onto the bridge from the east side without going through that intersection. The road that crosses the bridge is Route 45.

Just south of the bridge is May's Drive-in; it has a parking lot.

One way that RFG could have "tossed" the laptop sans drive is this:

1. He puts the laptop on the passenger seat.

2. Opens the passenger side window.

3. Drive across the bridge, turn left and turns into May's parking lot.

4. Waits for these traffic light to turn green letting north or southbound cars to go through the intersection. He either pulls out from the parking lot when the light green or he pulls up and waits for it to turn green.

If it is night, he can see the headlights of any car coming up behind him (going north). He could also see the road in front of him, and see if anyone is coming toward him (going south) because he can see their headlights.

5. RFG turns left (going west) on Route 45 and re-crosses the bridge. He knows that no one is going to turn onto the bridge behind him, because he could see up and down the road from which he just turned. No one is coming in behind him on Route 45, because anyone on the other side of the intersection is stopped at the red light.

6. RFG pulls the Mini close the barrier, which about 10 inches lower than. He either stops or does a "rolling stop." This will take 1-3 seconds.

7. RFG put the laptop on the window-well and either gives it a slight upward toss. In either case, the laptop ends up exactly where it was found.

Nobody will be coming up behind him to see passenger side of the car. Anyone going in the opposite direction (west to east) will not be able to see the passenger side because both the Mini and the Mini's head lights block his view. Someone on the walkway, heading toward Lewisburg, might have a chance, but I think the pedestrian's view would also be blocked by the Mini. It would be unlikely for a pedestrian to be on the bridge at night, and be paying attention.

Even in the daylight, the only potential witness would be in the park, and just be happening to be looking at the right spot. Again he'd have to remember what he saw. At night, it is next to impossible to spot that. The water in the river makes it impossible to hear a splash.

Step Three could have happened before Steps One and Two. RFG could have crossed the Susquehanna earlier in the day. Turning to the north after crossing the bridge there was another restaurant, that had a parking lot. RFG could have turned north instead of turning south.

This is one way, with a few variations, that the laptop could have ended up where it did.
 
Here are a few others possibilities.

Someone else followed the scenario above, but it wasn't RFG. My car is lower to the ground and wider than a Mini Cooper. Possibly excepting a very low to the ground sport car, most vehicles are high enough for a driver to do this.

Another way was provided by Jana,though there would still be risk of being hit from behind.

Someone in the passenger seat of the car while another person dropped it out of the passenger side window. The type of car would not make a difference.

The only thing that either of these things point to is to almost totally rule out suicide.

I have heard a few people suggest that the laptop was planted, to "make it look like suicide."

One of the great problems with that theory is that, if it was planted it made look like it was not suicide. The laptop was found on the north side of the bridge. There is a walkway on the south side, but not the north. It would have been impossible to throw the laptop from the walkway and have it land where it did. The Susquehanna flows north to south, so the laptop was upstream from the walkway.

While there can be debate as to how the laptop ended up where it did, or when it was tossed, but the motive "to make it look like suicide" can be ruled out.
 
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OMG!! J.J. ~

I knew you wouldn't let Ray down :)
You're still keeping his case/
thread alive!

Haven't posted in this thread for ages. (intermittent internet [say that 5 times fast :) ] sometimes without access for years.)

I was a member of CourtTV forums when Ray disappeared. You were/are the 'go to guy' about this case. When you then joined here I was so excited!

I just KNEW that you wouldn't let him down :)

It's been awhile since I've reviewed Ray's case. Used to be almost obsessed with it (not EVEN a smidgen compared to you) - but would have notes and theories written on random pieces of paper strewn all over the computer desk. It got on my boyfriend's nerves until he got hooked, too. :)

It's been awhile, but, it still feels like foul play to me. Unless new info has come along. I'm going to have to find some time to refresh my memory.
Jeez! You've done an amazing job of collecting and organizing information! After all these years, no matter the outcome, (hopefully soon) Ray is lucky to have you ♡

Very few missing persons have someone as diligent as you. There are even family members of missing that don't keep their loved one in the public eye.

Thanks for not giving up on Ray ♡


(took forever to write & post this. Kept getting phone calls.:) *phew*
 
Thanks.

On the last thread there is a detailed discussion of RFG's finances, with some documentation.

I can't figure out how to put the documentation on my profile page or I would. :) I'll try again.
 
J.J.

Wanted to refresh my memory by starting at Ray's very first thread and continue on from there.
For some reason I can't access Thread#1 #2 or #3. A message says that I don't have permission.

I'm logged in ( o_Oof course, or I couldn't post this! [whack myself on the head]) so was wondering - are those early threads just unacessable because they're older? Is it just a glitch? Or do you Ray Gricar posters have a secret knock?:cool:
 
J.J.

Wanted to refresh my memory by starting at Ray's very first thread and continue on from there.
For some reason I can't access Thread#1 #2 or #3. A message says that I don't have permission.

I'm logged in ( o_Oof course, or I couldn't post this! [whack myself on the head]) so was wondering - are those early threads just unacessable because they're older? Is it just a glitch? Or do you Ray Gricar posters have a secret knock?:cool:


The first three threads did not survive the format change.
 
The first three threads did not survive the format change.


Aaarrrggghhh!!!
That's so maddening! Thank goodness for you, J.J.!! If not for you cataloguing years of information - just thank goodness!
Thanks for the reply!
 
So fascinating going through the old threads and reading the theories that posters had then. Many are the same as today's guesses. Reading through Thread #5 right now. Interesting to re-acquaint myself with the names & initials of those in Ray's orbit, before disappearing and after. Used to have them on total recall. The names of some are like dusty memories. Hmmm... time moved on. Still no Ray.
Completely forgot about those early reports of a metallic car following a red Mini Cooper on I80 - then Carolyn Fenton seeing Ray in a 'tan or metallic' car at the courthouse.o_O

Such a confusing case. Or is it?
Does Occam's Razor apply in Ray's case? So frustrating that we still don't know.

I'm taking my time, very slowly, trying not to skim :)

There seems to be a lot of passion in the older threads. People, strangers, really cared about Ray & about how the investigation was handled from the beginning.
Who would think, all these years later, still no body, no information about what really happened, that we'd be here in 2018? We are lucky, though, we still have J.J. at the helm! :)

I'm not going to jump ahead in to current thread. Waiting to see what J.J.'s percentages are now!
I've got a lot of reading to do! Real life gets in my way. :)
 
If I am at the helm, we just hit the iceberg. :)

Looking at the odds, mine have shifted over the years.

In 2006, when I started posting on message boards, I gave these odds:

Foul play: 33%
Walkaway: 33%
Suicide: 33%

Something else: 1%

Red indicates a voluntary act on RFG's part. Voluntary Act was 66%.

When I started posting here, in 2008, I gave these odds:

Foul play: 44%
Walkaway: 45%
Suicide: 10%

Something else: 1%

Voluntary Act was 55%.
PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #4

(Ironically, I initially wanted to join this site, but it would not accept my e-mail account, then Juno.)

Today, those odds are:

Victim of a criminal act, though not necessarily murder: 25%
Walkaway: 59%
Suicide: 15%

*Something else: 1%

Voluntary act is at 74%.

*The "Something else" category includes an accident where RFG's body was not recovered, amnesia, or some other health problem,where either he died and his body was not recovered, or his memory was impaired. It does not include cases where RFG would have died do to natural causes or to an accident and then was intentionally hidden; that is a criminal act, though not murder.

The 1% is nominal.
 
If I am at the helm, we just hit the iceberg. :)

Looking at the odds, mine have shifted over the years.

In 2006, when I started posting on message boards, I gave these odds:

Foul play: 33%
Walkaway: 33%
Suicide: 33%

Something else: 1%

Red indicates a voluntary act on RFG's part. Voluntary Act was 66%.

When I started posting here, in 2008, I gave these odds:

Foul play: 44%
Walkaway: 45%
Suicide: 10%

Something else: 1%

Voluntary Act was 55%.
PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #4

(Ironically, I initially wanted to join this site, but it would not accept my e-mail account, then Juno.)

Today, those odds are:

Victim of a criminal act, though not necessarily murder: 25%
Walkaway: 59%
Suicide: 15%

*Something else: 1%

Voluntary act is at 74%.

*The "Something else" category includes an accident where RFG's body was not recovered, amnesia, or some other health problem,where either he died and his body was not recovered, or his memory was impaired. It does not include cases where RFG would have died do to natural causes or to an accident and then was intentionally hidden; that is a criminal act, though not murder.

The 1% is nominal.


Wow! If you have upped walkaway to 74%, I have a lot to catch up on!
Your percentages used to all be in close range.

:) I don't believe you've hit an iceberg, J.J. You've done and gone further than anybody for Ray. With VERY LIMITED INFORMATION you've steered through the choppy waters on to an eerily calm sea. Just
haven't been given the right coordinates to get to land, YET.

I'm still hoping we'll learn the truth. So strange, back when he first disappeared, I never thought it would become an old, cold case. Now here it is.

Thanks, J.J.
Seems like I'm only going to be able to read 1 thread a day, if time allows:)
 
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