There is some action(s) that created an outcome that is counterintuitive in this case. The idea of an accident on the river appears to me to require the fewest number of counterintuitive outcomes to occur. I am very likely wrong, but so many of the other explanations require a large number of anomalies to be believable. This explanation only requires that the body is not found. If the logic in this case easily added up it would've been solved by now.
I could be wrong, but I think what you are wanting to discuss is what I call a one- two punch.
Meaning, one bad thing happened, which then led to vulnerability to a second negative action in quick succession upon a person or by a person which led to their unusual demise. ( accidental death or murder).
The thing about the Susquehanna River at his last known location in Lewisburg was WADING DEPTH at that time. This is factual.
I suppose one could formulate a theory in which a head blow led to him falling into shallows, and drowning, as drowning can occur in 2-3 inches of water, but this was a public place. People were around and had their eyes open.
I don't believe this is likely at all. Who lets someone pound them in the head without fighting back? He was a smart man, he knew how to shout " Help! Fire! Call 911!" or the like but no one reported any disturbances.
Upon questioning, several people have reported seeing him in the Packwood House, in the park with a laptop, and in the Street of Shops, but NO ONE has said he was down by the riverbank. NO one has said " He was walking on the railroad bridge".
NO one has said anything to indicate he was near the river.
This is a man who disliked water and didn't swim well or like to swim. He would not be led to the water's edge unless he wanted to go there.
You can't have a big person strong- arming a guy in broad daylight in a small town where people see EVERYTHING that comes and goes.
There is no evidence he even got his shoes damp. I do not know what's difficult about " The water was around 4 feet deep" but it would be hard to die in the Sus that day if a person was
trying to die in that river on that day.
Unless you have evidence that he somehow belly flopped into 4 foot water to die, the theory doesn't hold up. I think sometimes, our personal perceptions and experiences cloud the truth. I do not know whether you have any or much experience with bodies of water, but most people have at least looked at a shallow body of water vs. a deep and swift moving large river.
I've lived on the Gulf of Mexico, and a major river, and live on a river presently where both children and adults drown pretty often. ( I love water views very much and respect, but do not fear, the water).
It's easy to see flood stage river water and how dangerous it would be to go kayaking or swimming that day, and what a struggle boating would be until the water calmed back down. Or, in the case of the Tennessee River, it was dangerous every day due to the depth and the many hidden shoals.
The Susquehanna was NOT a killer at that time in Lewisburg, although people can drown in a bowl of soup, theoretically.
Dead bodies rise to the top as soon as the water temperature in spring reaches the point that bacteria gasses force them to be a floater. April 15 was likely not very far from that point, even in PA.
When those of us who have gone through all the known statements, conditions, financials, friends' and non- friends' statements, known movements, results of searches and other evidence related to or of Ray Gricar since 2005 say " It's extremely unlikely he drowned" what we mean is " We discussed this theory until our fingers were almost bloody, and the consensus of all of us is that the water was too shallow to kill a grown man, plus there's no indication that he was extremely near or in the water."
If your " cue" is taken from the water- damaged laptop found in the river, it is believed it likely was thrown from an open window on the bridge considering where it was found. We can't determine with certainty who threw it into the water, but we know it was found in the shallow waters next to a bridge pylon. Not indicative of foul play, just littering and destruction of Centre County property with little value to the county. It is possible he waded into the river, bent over, and placed the laptop in the river after dark. Even if he did, that's not a fatal action. Also, there are reports of him being seen in Lewisburg, then elsewhere in the state, then outside PA but still in the country, on the 16th and beyond.
There is sufficient evidence that Ray Gricar did not drown to put the theory of misadventure in the Susquehanna way down near the list to almost impossibility due to the credible sightings of him in the subsequent days and weeks. SAR boats with dogs and divers ( waders?) were in the water quickly and NOTHING was found that pointed to an " incident" in the shallow river.
Are you familiar with the prevailing theory that he wanted to leave the country and did so safely and legally? That no crime occurred? Those of us who still post about Mr. Gricar do so, with a few exceptions, because we believe he did manage to get away undetected or at least unknown to the general public. We hope and believe in the absence of evidence to the contrary, that he did make it to the country of his choice, and has had a great long life, and is still alive.
Thanks for reading.
