Pat Brown compares Lisa case to other cases.

[brit1981]

All the more reason to think that Lisa was stolen for adoption. This does happen, no matter how many people want to believe otherwise.

That is the one ray of hope with young children, desperate people do kidnap babies and bring them up as their own this has happened before. It is rare but disappearences like this are also rare.
Statistically if parents are involved the child is normally found fairly soon I believe.

 

[Melon]

1) the fact lisa has not been found does not nullify my comparison...

2) acquaint yourself with the stats re: who kidnaps a baby, whether or not kidnapped babies are usually located quickly and returned home, and *who is most likely responsible when a child goes "missing". they're all over this forum.


as for carl probyn:

1) he submitted to all interviews and questioning asked of him by LE... have DB and JI?
2) he passed not one but TWO lie-detector tests... did DB?
3) he and the rest of the family were 99.9% cleared by LE... were DB and JI?

Knowing that the vast majority of kidnappings involve family members*—only four of California's 240 reported kidnappings last year are confirmed stranger abductions—local authorities, together with the FBI, questioned all relatives. But it was Carl who was subjected to the closest scrutiny. "Did you ever wish Jaycee wasn't here?" police asked him during two lie-detector tests—which he passed—and while he was under hypnosis. "It made me nervous," he says. "I had to say, 'Sure, there were times I'd wished Jaycee wasn't in our life.' I think every parent has wished that." Ultimately the police decided that Carl's occasional ambivalence about his stepdaughter was as innocent as he said it was. "We're 99.9 percent sure this is not a family abduction," says Eldorado County Sgt. Jim Watson.

http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20111362,00.html

I think your post is a good example of what an innocent person (or family) does to exonerate themselves, even if it's extremely uncomfortable. On one hand you have a family that went above and beyond to do what was best for Jaycee. Who commissioned the hypnosis? Subjecting yourself to that really speaks to me. That's a willingness to lay yourself bare, a confidence in your own innocence.

On the other hand we have a family that lawyered up, clammed up, put their own comfort over and above their "kidnapped" daughter's fate, inexplicably stonewall the investigation (claiming kidnapper but withholding sibling DNA to help the investigation being a big one in my book) and conducting bizarre antics on television and the internet. You start stacking up all of the behavior of BL's family and the pile is teetering in an unfavorable light. It's the totality of the entire situation (ETA: which also adds the dog hit and SW to the behavior component), even though we see it from afar, even though LE has kept mum, that leads lots of us to our conclusions of parental involvement.

 

[RANCH]

Here's a case where an innocent father spent 18 months in prison for the murder of his adoptive daughter Jaclyn. David Dowaliby was freed when his conviction was overturned by the Illinois appellate court because of insufficient evidence. I think that this statement by David Protess who authored a book about the Jaclyn Dowaliby case is something that should be considered.

But when the primary focus is on the parents, tunnel vision can take hold and the trail for other suspects can grow cold. Putting the parents under a cloud of suspicion will also prompt lawyers to insulate even innocent clients, depriving the authorities of information that might prove useful in their investigation

I think that this may have happened in this case, and led to some of the behavior by Lisa's parents that so many abhor. Points can be made on both sides of the argument on whether following their lawyers advice is the right thing to do or not.

While comparing these different cases is interesting, it doesn't help me to know the truth of what happened to Lisa.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-protess/when-a-child-vanishes-in-_b_1066207.html

 

[redheadedgal]

Statistically if parents are involved the child is normally found fairly soon I believe.

found alive or deceased? your point is not clear. can you provide a link with that stat to explain-- thanks.

 

[RANCH]

found alive or deceased? your point is not clear. can you provide a link with that stat to explain-- thanks.

Since Lisa hasn't been found dead or alive any statistic that shows recovery of a missing child whether alive or dead would be relevant to this case.

My question is this. Are statistics enough to tell us that Lisa's parents are complicit in the disappearance of their daughter? It's not enough for me but I'm interested in other members thoughts on this.

I think that statistics can be a good tool for LE to help guide them in their initial investigation. Afterwards I think that actual evidence should guide them or they may fall victim to tunnel vision and loose track of the ultimate goal.

For myself the goal is to find the missing child and bring to justice whomever is responsible for their disappearance. JMO.

 

[Whisperer]

""Suspicion almost always falls heavily on the parents, especially when it's young kids," Finkelhor said. "Fifteen hundred parents kill their kids every year, and that's heavily focused on the under 1 year of age category."

Allen said his organization has handled 278 infant abduction cases during his nearly three decades with the group. Only 13 cases involved a stranger coming into a home and taking a baby, and all but one of those children were recovered unharmed."


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/09/lisa-irwin-missing-statistics-stranger_n_1002196.html

2% involved a stranger and all but one were returned That means 95% of the time, it as not the result of a stranger. and 99.8% the child is returned. Pretty convincing odds. Logic dictates to go with the odds. There is no evidence of a stranger taking Lisa except for the parents saying so...

One has to be a very optimistic to the point of wishful thinking to think Lisa was abducted by a stranger.

 

[RANCH]

""Suspicion almost always falls heavily on the parents, especially when it's young kids," Finkelhor said. "Fifteen hundred parents kill their kids every year, and that's heavily focused on the under 1 year of age category."

Allen said his organization has handled 278 infant abduction cases during his nearly three decades with the group. Only 13 cases involved a stranger coming into a home and taking a baby, and all but one of those children were recovered unharmed."


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/09/lisa-irwin-missing-statistics-stranger_n_1002196.html

2% involved a stranger and all but one were returned That means 95% of the time, it as not the result of a stranger. and 99.8% the child is returned. Pretty convincing odds. Logic dictates to go with the odds. There is no evidence of a stranger taking Lisa except for the parents saying so...

One has to be a very optimistic to the point of wishful thinking to think Lisa was abducted by a stranger.

BBM in Red

If it means that Lisa is still alive, then yes, I'm wishful and optimistic about her situation.

 

[Whisperer]

Since Lisa hasn't been found dead or alive any statistic that shows recovery of a missing child whether alive or dead would be relevant to this case.

My question is this. Are statistics enough to tell us that Lisa's parents are complicit in the disappearance of their daughter? It's not enough for me but I'm interested in other members thoughts on this.

I think that statistics can be a good tool for LE to help guide them in their initial investigation. Afterwards I think that actual evidence should guide them or they may fall victim to tunnel vision and loose track of the ultimate goal.

For myself the goal is to find the missing child and bring to justice whomever is responsible for their disappearance. JMO.

Yes, statistics are enough. When you have 98% of the cases concerning under age 1, not abducted, but killed by a family member and the other 2% (that were abducted), returned unharmed (one not returned), statistics are da*ning. Logic speaks to LE and tells them it is most likely that the parent/s harmed the child.

I personally know of one case where a three month old was abducted and sexually raped. The child was left for dead but survived (27 surgeries needed). The perp was a psychopathic sexual pedophile sadist. Now how many of those still roaming around? If one chooses to believe Lisa was abducted than this may be what the perp looks like. I doubt it. It is much more feasible to think the parents are the cause.

In the case I cited, it was easy picking up the perp. Psychos like this are easy to spot...as he blood all over his pants...and was strolling down the street. He had raped two children under the age of two before this one.

Personally, I think LE knows exactly what happened to Lisa and it was no deranged pedophile that took her. It is for certain they have checked every strange pedophile in the area. There was no evidence at the house...but there was evidence that the baby perhaps died inside the home. When you combine that with the stats, It is 99.9% probable the perp lives inside the house on Lister.

 

[RANCH]

Yes, statistics are enough. When you have 98% of the cases concerning under age 1, not abducted, but killed by a family member and the other 2% (that were abducted), returned unharmed (one not returned), statistics are da*ning. Logic speaks to LE and tells them it is most likely that the parent/s harmed the child.

I personally know of one case where a three month old was abducted and sexually raped. The child was left for dead but survived (27 surgeries needed). The perp was a psychopathic sexual pedophile sadist. Now how many of those still roaming around? If one chooses to believe Lisa was abducted than this may be what the perp looks like. I doubt it. It is much more feasible to think the parents are the cause.

In the case I cited, it was easy picking up the perp. Psychos like this are easy to spot...as he blood all over his pants...and was strolling down the street. He had raped two children under the age of two before this one.

Personally, I think LE knows exactly what happened to Lisa and it was no deranged pedophile that took her. It is for certain they have checked every strange pedophile in the area. There was no evidence at the house...but there was evidence that the baby perhaps died inside the home. When you combine that with the stats, It is 99.9% probable the perp lives inside the house on Lister.

BBM

So we have an unverified "FBI dog" hit and some statistics saying that Lisa's parents "may" be responsible for her disappearance.

That's not enough for me to say that they are guilty of anything. JMO.

 

[Sabot]

Since Lisa hasn't been found dead or alive any statistic that shows recovery of a missing child whether alive or dead would be relevant to this case.

My question is this. Are statistics enough to tell us that Lisa's parents are complicit in the disappearance of their daughter? It's not enough for me but I'm interested in other members thoughts on this.

I think that statistics can be a good tool for LE to help guide them in their initial investigation. Afterwards I think that actual evidence should guide them or they may fall victim to tunnel vision and loose track of the ultimate goal.

For myself the goal is to find the missing child and bring to justice whomever is responsible for their disappearance. JMO.

Statistics are not relevant, and never will be. Each case is different in some way, so only evidence matters.
If one child in 100 is proven to have been abducted by a stranger then it could happens to two children, or three. In the absence of a body or any other evidence then no one knows.
And No, I don't place any importance on dog alerts alone. Dogs do alert to decomposing body fluids from live people. This was stated in Court by The Dog Handler in The Anthony Case.

 

[hambirg]

Statistics are not relevant, and never will be. Each case is different in some way, so only evidence matters.
If one child in 100 is proven to have been abducted by a stranger then it could happens to two children, or three. In the absence of a body or any other evidence then no one knows.
And No, I don't place any importance on dog alerts alone. Dogs do alert to decomposing body fluids from live people. This was stated in Court by The Dog Handler in The Anthony Case.

BBM

Great. . .so where's the evidence that proves Lisa was taken by a stranger?

 

[nursebeeme]

am I in the Pat Brown thread? I thought I was but the conversation is not about Pat Brown....

Please get back on topic here and leave the snark at the door.

 

[redheadedgal]

... Someone with a masters in criminal justice and has read a few books would never be considered a criminologist nor qualified to make assesments of mental health (in fact even if someone was an expert and they and not met the person and read their notes they would only talk about a condition in general)... I read the article, it does sound very odd to me, just getting a masters and being considered a criminal expert. But I guess it is a cultural thing. I did not read anywhere in her interview where she had actively worked with the police on a case.

Did you ever get the time to ask her whether or not she has ever been employed as a professional consultant to LE on any of the cases she pontificates about?

She's a talking head, IMO. I'm as qualified as she is to give a criminal profile. :banghead:

But if she is not an expert just some random with a criminal justice degree who has read a few book then she is not qualified any more than anyone else to give her opinions...

WOODROW TRIPP, FMR. POLICE COMMANDER: Nancy, that's very significant. And I totally agree with Pat. And certainly, she's the expert on profiling. But you also have a person here that needed to dismember the body in order to get it into a bag, certainly for easier transport.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1210/11/ng.01.html


so-- there it is. right from the horse's mouth: LE in the US holds ms brown in great esteem. <modsnip>

 

[Whisperer]

Since Lisa hasn't been found dead or alive any statistic that shows recovery of a missing child whether alive or dead would be relevant to this case.

My question is this. Are statistics enough to tell us that Lisa's parents are complicit in the disappearance of their daughter? It's not enough for me but I'm interested in other members thoughts on this.

I think that statistics can be a good tool for LE to help guide them in their initial investigation. Afterwards I think that actual evidence should guide them or they may fall victim to tunnel vision and loose track of the ultimate goal.

For myself the goal is to find the missing child and bring to justice whomever is responsible for their disappearance. JMO.

Yes, Statistics are compiled for babies under the age of ONE YEAR. It has been posted numerous times. Out of 238, over 98% of the time, the parent is involved. 13 were stranger and 12 of them were found/returned. One was not found.

If one cares to continue to go for the under 1% and put Lisa in that category, there will be no facts that will convince you otherwise. At this point, it becomes more along the lines of wishful thinking, than leaning towards the logic of statistics and the outcome of these type cases.

 

[Whisperer]

I have dealt with one who kidnapped a baby for sexual purposes. If you care to go down that path, have at it. Too high of a price for the monster has been paid. I have not seen any stats on anyone successfully raising a baby they stole. These would be some choices left for Lisa's disappearance. The other would be a thrill killing.

I don't care to go with the sexual pedophile baby raper, it happens. I don't think it happened in this case and I don't even want to know about any other cases. ONCE is enough. According to the thinking of the 1%, we would have to put this scenario back in.

For those who believe Lisa is in the under 1%, nothing will convince them otherwise. typical stranger abductions who murder for sexual reasons do not do too much to hide the body. Those who are related and not insane will go out of their way to conceal it. I believe Lisa is dead and she died in that house sometime between the night before and the night she was reported. Stats are high for this opinion. The behavior of the parents combined with some facts released point in their direction.

 

[Whisperer]

I consider people who actually work with criminals and have training much more capable of making an assessment based on facts given and reading their files, more capable than just a book learned person. You can have all the education in the world but if you don't have gut instincts and a working kge about criminals, you will either get physically hurt (by the criminal) or you won't be much use in addressing the criminal behavior at hand.

Plenty of people have education but possess no gut instincts. It is not a good situation for those people to place themselves around criminals. It is dangerous for them and for people who work with them. You can't teach gut instincts.

 

[4Jacy]

I have dealt with one who kidnapped a baby for sexual purposes. If you care to go down that path, have at it. Too high of a price for the monster has been paid. I have not seen any stats on anyone successfully raising a baby they stole. These would be some choices left for Lisa's disappearance. The other would be a thrill killing.

I don't care to go with the sexual pedophile baby raper, it happens. I don't think it happened in this case and I don't even want to know about any other cases. ONCE is enough. According to the thinking of the 1%, we would have to put this scenario back in.

For those who believe Lisa is in the under 1%, nothing will convince them otherwise. typical stranger abductions who murder for sexual reasons do not do too much to hide the body. Those who are related and not insane will go out of their way to conceal it. I believe Lisa is dead and she died in that house sometime between the night before and the night she was reported. Stats are high for this opinion. The behavior of the parents combined with some facts released point in their direction.

BBM

I don't believe that either, not for one minute! 3 people: JI, DB, PN are first on my list!

 

[RANCH]

Yes, Statistics are compiled for babies under the age of ONE YEAR. It has been posted numerous times. Out of 238, over 98% of the time, the parent is involved. 13 were stranger and 12 of them were found/returned. One was not found.

If one cares to continue to go for the under 1% and put Lisa in that category, there will be no facts that will convince you otherwise. At this point, it becomes more along the lines of wishful thinking, than leaning towards the logic of statistics and the outcome of these type cases.

Could you provide a link to support your statistics of the 238 babies? I'd like to read more about it.

 

[RANCH]

WOODROW TRIPP, FMR. POLICE COMMANDER: Nancy, that's very significant. And I totally agree with Pat. And certainly, she's the expert on profiling. But you also have a person here that needed to dismember the body in order to get it into a bag, certainly for easier transport.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1210/11/ng.01.html

so-- there it is. right from the horse's mouth: LE in the US holds ms brown in great esteem. <modsnip>

BBMG
So how does having one former police commander indorsing Pat Brown mean that "LE in the US holds ms brown in great esteem"? The fact that they both were on the same show would suggest to me that they are two talking heads that will promote each other when necessary. JMO.

 

[Whisperer]

Could you provide a link to support your statistics of the 238 babies? I'd like to read more about it.

Aritcle written on Oct 8, 2011.

It was 278 babies; I thought it was 238 (going from memory). Report was done by Ernie Allen, president of missing and exploited children. He was quoted in the link below.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700186327/Family-of-missing-baby-setting-up-reward.html?pg=all