inspctrgadget
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Dwntwn,
Your thread really got me thinking. Thanks.
Let me offer my analysis.
I basically see 3 scenarios that can explain the serial killer's calls to Melissa's sister that were traced to the Port Authority Bus Terminal and Madison Square Garden:
1) The serial killer has a great deal of technical sophistication. He understands the inner workings of E-911, and understands GPS tracing versus triangulation. I will dispel this scenario in a moment.
2) The serial killer works in NYC. As some in the MSM have suggested, the serial killer may live on Long Island and commute to the city. I will also dispel this myth.
3) (And this is my theory...) Neither #1 nor #2 above are true. The serial killer has no "real" technical sophistication, and doesn't work in NYC.
Let's look at these 3 scenarios.
Scenario #1
This scenario cannot be true because the fact of the matter is that anyone with any real sophistication would never have chosen those locations to make those calls. Why? Because in a city like New York, your cell towers are closer together. This means that the the police can trace you quicker, and more precisely. Because of the close proximity of the phone to the tower, you have an extremely strong signal. These signals are the basis for a "live trace" (we're talking about triangulation here). The stronger the signal, the quicker that phone can be traced. In New York City, you're going to have multiple towers reporting the phone's signal strength and direction, all extremely accurately. Also, the serial killer always hung up in under 3 minutes. In New York City, the triangulation trace would take about 1 second. It would be nearly instantaneous. If you were calling from a rural location, it may take much longer, maybe even up to 3-4 seconds, because the towers are much farther apart and the signal strengths are much weaker relative to an urban environment. In a GPS phone scenario, there is no delay - as soon as it's powered on, its traced. I learned all of this after googling around for an hour, and I used google's "daterange" function to make sure all of my results were prior to August 2009. No self respecting techno geek would have chosen Madison Square Garden and the Port Authority as the location to make those calls, especially given the sophistication of the NYC police technical folks in a post-9-11 world. If ANYTHING, they maybe would have chosen a skyscraper like the Empire State Building, where you can get the location but not the altitude. Even this would be dumb given building security, and a real techie would never attempt it.
Scenario #2
This scenario is easily dispelled with some basic logic. Here you've got someone who is going to extraordinary lengths to maintain anonymity by placing calls from crowded locations. He's also staying on the line for less than 3 minutes. He's also calling at night, probably during rush hour is my guess. Now you're telling me that someone taking great pains to remain anonymous is going to be nonchalantly making these calls on his way home from work? Are you kidding? That would be a total violation of even basic security measures. This is ridiculous, and those who mentioned it in MSM are, in my opinion, idiots. I'll admit though, prior to this analysis of mine (thanks Dwntwn) I've many times tried to find a NYC connection to any of my POIs. So I feel kind of duped - don't believe everything you read.
Scenario #3
This scenario makes the most sense to me. Here you've got a guy that goes to the entirely wrong place to make an "anonymous" or "untraceable" call (from a technical standpoint). He takes the absolutely RIDICULOUS countermeasure of staying on the line for less than 3 minutes. I mean, this is some crap that you see in movies ("You've got to keep them on the line for 3 minutes!"), even though in reality it is totally unnecessary in this day and age. Not since the mid-1980s has an incoming call been required to last 3 minutes or longer to trace. This has to do with manual versus electronic switching. In 2006, we start seeing GPS phones, and those traces occur instantly. So, our guy is taking countermeasures, but they're the wrong ones, which tells me that he's a IT moron. He's not even good at using the computer, since it took me only about 20 minutes to get pretty educated on ways to defeat even an instant trace in 2009 (I won't elaborate). So I can safely assume he's not from NYC, and he doesn't work there, yet he traveled there specifically to make the call. He got away with it a few times, and felt pretty smart. Damn that Buffalo News station that revealed the existence of the police attempts to locate him. I'd bet everything in my pocket that he'd be busted by now if Buffalo TV had never done that. It's my belief that our guy has only slightly more IT sophistication than the average juvenile calling in a bomb threat in order to avoid a test. He heard or read somewhere to make calls from another city, and came up with the brilliant (really stupid) idea to go to NYC, and find a busy place at a busy time and stay on the line for less than 3 minutes. Don't get me wrong, he definitely THOUGHT HARD about how to make these calls anonymously, but he came up with a POOR method that nearly got him caught. His "technical education" is limited to what he's seen on TV and what he read from some basic google searches for "How to make an untraceable call" or "How to make an anonymous call". Probably somebody on some board mentioned to make the call from a crowded location or from another city, and he thought that was effective and took it to the extreme. It almost got him busted, with evidence in his hand to boot! I think the most revealing fact about this analysis is the fact that this guy has the time and the inclination to go to the city on (at least) a workday, August 26th, 2009, the last reported call to Melissa's sister. Even though he doesn't work in the city or have any real reason to be there, he still went there about half-a-dozen times. This tells me he's got the ability to duck away from his family or regular life and go out gallivanting with no questions asked. Furthermore, it tells me he's underemployed, and that there was some other reason for him to go there. What was this reason? My guess is that these trips were "pleasure" trips where he's spend some time walking around the city at night basically up to no good. Seeing as he actually "gets off" by placing these sadistic, vulgar phone calls, my guess is that his trips to NYC actually play a dual purpose - after these calls, he probably spent his time at the sex shops, probably in the private "video booths" which are common over there by the PABT, or he's participating in other sex related nightlife activities in NYC, like peep shows, prostitutes, shopping for S&M stuff, etc.
Your thread really got me thinking. Thanks.
Let me offer my analysis.
I basically see 3 scenarios that can explain the serial killer's calls to Melissa's sister that were traced to the Port Authority Bus Terminal and Madison Square Garden:
1) The serial killer has a great deal of technical sophistication. He understands the inner workings of E-911, and understands GPS tracing versus triangulation. I will dispel this scenario in a moment.
2) The serial killer works in NYC. As some in the MSM have suggested, the serial killer may live on Long Island and commute to the city. I will also dispel this myth.
3) (And this is my theory...) Neither #1 nor #2 above are true. The serial killer has no "real" technical sophistication, and doesn't work in NYC.
Let's look at these 3 scenarios.
Scenario #1
This scenario cannot be true because the fact of the matter is that anyone with any real sophistication would never have chosen those locations to make those calls. Why? Because in a city like New York, your cell towers are closer together. This means that the the police can trace you quicker, and more precisely. Because of the close proximity of the phone to the tower, you have an extremely strong signal. These signals are the basis for a "live trace" (we're talking about triangulation here). The stronger the signal, the quicker that phone can be traced. In New York City, you're going to have multiple towers reporting the phone's signal strength and direction, all extremely accurately. Also, the serial killer always hung up in under 3 minutes. In New York City, the triangulation trace would take about 1 second. It would be nearly instantaneous. If you were calling from a rural location, it may take much longer, maybe even up to 3-4 seconds, because the towers are much farther apart and the signal strengths are much weaker relative to an urban environment. In a GPS phone scenario, there is no delay - as soon as it's powered on, its traced. I learned all of this after googling around for an hour, and I used google's "daterange" function to make sure all of my results were prior to August 2009. No self respecting techno geek would have chosen Madison Square Garden and the Port Authority as the location to make those calls, especially given the sophistication of the NYC police technical folks in a post-9-11 world. If ANYTHING, they maybe would have chosen a skyscraper like the Empire State Building, where you can get the location but not the altitude. Even this would be dumb given building security, and a real techie would never attempt it.
Scenario #2
This scenario is easily dispelled with some basic logic. Here you've got someone who is going to extraordinary lengths to maintain anonymity by placing calls from crowded locations. He's also staying on the line for less than 3 minutes. He's also calling at night, probably during rush hour is my guess. Now you're telling me that someone taking great pains to remain anonymous is going to be nonchalantly making these calls on his way home from work? Are you kidding? That would be a total violation of even basic security measures. This is ridiculous, and those who mentioned it in MSM are, in my opinion, idiots. I'll admit though, prior to this analysis of mine (thanks Dwntwn) I've many times tried to find a NYC connection to any of my POIs. So I feel kind of duped - don't believe everything you read.
Scenario #3
This scenario makes the most sense to me. Here you've got a guy that goes to the entirely wrong place to make an "anonymous" or "untraceable" call (from a technical standpoint). He takes the absolutely RIDICULOUS countermeasure of staying on the line for less than 3 minutes. I mean, this is some crap that you see in movies ("You've got to keep them on the line for 3 minutes!"), even though in reality it is totally unnecessary in this day and age. Not since the mid-1980s has an incoming call been required to last 3 minutes or longer to trace. This has to do with manual versus electronic switching. In 2006, we start seeing GPS phones, and those traces occur instantly. So, our guy is taking countermeasures, but they're the wrong ones, which tells me that he's a IT moron. He's not even good at using the computer, since it took me only about 20 minutes to get pretty educated on ways to defeat even an instant trace in 2009 (I won't elaborate). So I can safely assume he's not from NYC, and he doesn't work there, yet he traveled there specifically to make the call. He got away with it a few times, and felt pretty smart. Damn that Buffalo News station that revealed the existence of the police attempts to locate him. I'd bet everything in my pocket that he'd be busted by now if Buffalo TV had never done that. It's my belief that our guy has only slightly more IT sophistication than the average juvenile calling in a bomb threat in order to avoid a test. He heard or read somewhere to make calls from another city, and came up with the brilliant (really stupid) idea to go to NYC, and find a busy place at a busy time and stay on the line for less than 3 minutes. Don't get me wrong, he definitely THOUGHT HARD about how to make these calls anonymously, but he came up with a POOR method that nearly got him caught. His "technical education" is limited to what he's seen on TV and what he read from some basic google searches for "How to make an untraceable call" or "How to make an anonymous call". Probably somebody on some board mentioned to make the call from a crowded location or from another city, and he thought that was effective and took it to the extreme. It almost got him busted, with evidence in his hand to boot! I think the most revealing fact about this analysis is the fact that this guy has the time and the inclination to go to the city on (at least) a workday, August 26th, 2009, the last reported call to Melissa's sister. Even though he doesn't work in the city or have any real reason to be there, he still went there about half-a-dozen times. This tells me he's got the ability to duck away from his family or regular life and go out gallivanting with no questions asked. Furthermore, it tells me he's underemployed, and that there was some other reason for him to go there. What was this reason? My guess is that these trips were "pleasure" trips where he's spend some time walking around the city at night basically up to no good. Seeing as he actually "gets off" by placing these sadistic, vulgar phone calls, my guess is that his trips to NYC actually play a dual purpose - after these calls, he probably spent his time at the sex shops, probably in the private "video booths" which are common over there by the PABT, or he's participating in other sex related nightlife activities in NYC, like peep shows, prostitutes, shopping for S&M stuff, etc.