Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #12

[Trooper]

How do you know the phone pinged at 5pm?
Correct me if I’m wrong but VicPol has never shared that.

One of the reasons we do know, quite categorically, that he was short on time is that the Brunch folks set up the hue and cry around 12.30. - 1pm. and between Mick and the Brunch folks, VICPOL immediately took on the urgency, the inexplicability of her non appearance at the brunch and a large scale search commenced , police, fire brigade, SES, and assorted searching people from the tennis club and the dog walkers club, this was around 1.15pm.

It is an error to think that everything revolved around the 'ping'.. there was a lot going on that afternoon, and the traffic of people, dogs, horse riders, police vans, motor cycles etc, all out in the combined effort, the news of Mrs Murphy being missing , was spread by phone and facebook stuff, the temperature rising galvanized a hell of a lot of searchers on that afternoon, professional and amateur. Mrs Murphy was a registered missing person by 1pm that day.. not 5pm.

He was short on time in the context that by 1.15pm, the track, the forest was becoming somewhat crowded, traffic on the track was steady, he did not have the forest to himself, nor the track, nor any other tracks, both firetracks, and cattle tracks.. People were OUT there all afternoon and night from 1.15 on.

Murder 8am, - Brunch ladies hue and cry 1pm. 4 hours. = short on time.

 

[Trooper]

The ground was like concrete, the AU bush is like that in Feb. , he would have had to have some mechanical tools to dig a grave, deep enough to fool the CAD dogs, and heat sensors, this takes a lot of time even with a sort of post hole digger, with a shovel, hours, with bare hands, a DAY at least, it's not as easy a job as it may look like, and it's dangerous, too, stuff caves in, you have to start again, you have to shore up what you've dug to dig some more, you make a lot of noise, huffing and puffing and the clang of the shovel on the hard earth is loud... .

 

[Porky1]

I don't think it has ever been confirmed that there was a phone ping at 5pm?
Even if it is correct, there's no way of knowing if that 5pm ping was before or after the phone had been chucked.

A few things don’t make sense in relation to the phone.

Do we know whether the phone was in the (dam) water? Has that been confirmed? The condition didn’t suggest that it was in muddy water for 3-4 months. It was photographed on the edge in mud, in autumn/winter, when the water level would be possibly higher than summer (unless water source but not pumped in winter). Considering 40c days in Feb. The targeted search earthworks appeared to clear blackberry bushes between road and dam. Is it possible that it was thrown in bushes with other belongings and moved when blackberry bushes lost their summer density? and the risk of being found increased? Or was it planted? If it wasn’t in water, would it have been traceable using the imei once battery died? It didn’t appear to be damaged as you’d expect in those circumstances, especially by an Electrician.

 

[SouthAussie]

A few things don’t make sense in relation to the phone.

Do we know whether the phone was in the (dam) water? Has that been confirmed? The condition didn’t suggest that it was in muddy water for 3-4 months. It was photographed on the edge in mud, in autumn/winter, when the water level would be possibly higher than summer (unless water source but not pumped in winter). Considering 40c days in Feb. The targeted search earthworks appeared to clear blackberry bushes between road and dam. Is it possible that it was thrown in bushes with other belongings and moved when blackberry bushes lost their summer density? and the risk of being found increased? Or was it planted? If it wasn’t in water, would it have been traceable using the imei once battery died? It didn’t appear to be damaged as you’d expect in those circumstances, especially by an Electrician.

It wouldn't be surprising if PS returned to move Sam, make sure she was concealed, move the phone, cover up any mistakes that he had made in his haste.

It may even be how he was caught.

imo

 

[australianwebsleuth]

A few things don’t make sense in relation to the phone.

Do we know whether the phone was in the (dam) water? Has that been confirmed? The condition didn’t suggest that it was in muddy water for 3-4 months. It was photographed on the edge in mud, in autumn/winter, when the water level would be possibly higher than summer (unless water source but not pumped in winter). Considering 40c days in Feb. The targeted search earthworks appeared to clear blackberry bushes between road and dam. Is it possible that it was thrown in bushes with other belongings and moved when blackberry bushes lost their summer density? and the risk of being found increased? Or was it planted? If it wasn’t in water, would it have been traceable using the imei once battery died? It didn’t appear to be damaged as you’d expect in those circumstances, especially by an Electrician.

There are plenty of documented posts about the dam falling in the previous thread.

 

[Porky1]

The ground was like concrete, the AU bush is like that in Feb. , he would have had to have some mechanical tools to dig a grave, deep enough to fool the CAD dogs, and heat sensors, this takes a lot of time even with a sort of post hole digger, with a shovel, hours, with bare hands, a DAY at least, it's not as easy a job as it may look like, and it's dangerous, too, stuff caves in, you have to start again, you have to shore up what you've dug to dig some more, you make a lot of noise, huffing and puffing and the clang of the shovel on the hard earth is loud... .

You make some very good points. However, if it was premeditated, I guess he could have had it dug or final location in mind prior and it was really just a matter of discarding the small items afterwards and well away from the almost immediate searches on her route.

 

[Porky1]

There are plenty of documented posts about the dam falling in the previous thread.

I’ll read them, thanks

 

[australianwebsleuth]

View attachment 533722

What phone 'pings' can tell us in the Samantha Murphy case​

View attachment 533723
Herald Sun
https://www.heraldsun.com.au › news-story




Mar 5, 2024 — There were initial reports Ms Murphy's phone pinged off the Buninyong tower at 5pm on the day she was doing a 14km jogging course.

This isn't paywalled...
Initial reports claimed Ms Murphy's phone pinged off the Buninyong tower at 5pm on the day she went missing. However, that information, which remains to be confirmed, came in 10 hours after she had left for her run.Mar 3, 2024

Phone twist in search for missing mum Samantha Murphy​

not really sure if the 5pm was "confirmed" or there was a data delay or what.... there were sources saying 5p.m. at the outset

I guess others are claiming that the phone was discarded early and did not ping at all.

Not sure why the sudden change of mind.

 

[Porky1]

One of the reasons we do know, quite categorically, that he was short on time is that the Brunch folks set up the hue and cry around 12.30. - 1pm. and between Mick and the Brunch folks, VICPOL immediately took on the urgency, the inexplicability of her non appearance at the brunch and a large scale search commenced , police, fire brigade, SES, and assorted searching people from the tennis club and the dog walkers club, this was around 1.15pm.

It is an error to think that everything revolved around the 'ping'.. there was a lot going on that afternoon, and the traffic of people, dogs, horse riders, police vans, motor cycles etc, all out in the combined effort, the news of Mrs Murphy being missing , was spread by phone and facebook stuff, the temperature rising galvanized a hell of a lot of searchers on that afternoon, professional and amateur. Mrs Murphy was a registered missing person by 1pm that day.. not 5pm.

He was short on time in the context that by 1.15pm, the track, the forest was becoming somewhat crowded, traffic on the track was steady, he did not have the forest to himself, nor the track, nor any other tracks, both firetracks, and cattle tracks.. People were OUT there all afternoon and night from 1.15 on.

Murder 8am, - Brunch ladies hue and cry 1pm. 4 hours. = short on time.

Iam still struggling with the size of the search so quickly. Yes, she was reliable, it was a 40c day, snakes, mineshafts, etc, but it doesn’t usually happen with such intensity within such a short period of time, for an adult.

 

[Trooper]

You make some very good points. However, if it was premeditated, I guess he could have had it dug or final location in mind prior and it was really just a matter of discarding the small items afterwards and well away from the almost immediate searches on her route.

He would not be the first to prepare the ground... We don't know how long he had been mulling over killing someone, anyone, sometime,..... somewhere....

Mrs Murphy was a stranger to him, it could , perhaps, have been any woman running or walking on that track , that day, that he chose..

 

[SouthAussie]

I guess others are claiming that the phone was discarded early and did not ping at all.

Not sure why the sudden change of mind.

Some of us have never been sure about that ping time, because it is unverified.

And changes of mind are fine. As more facts emerge people can often change their mind.

I do think there was evidence of a ping(s) due to the fact that the police searched the area behind Buninyong Golf Club the day after Sam went missing. And someone (IIRC a relative or friend) had claimed in MSM that Sam wouldn't have run that way.

We just don't have any verified times of any pings at all. Though we do know that the police were using mobile phone data as early as the day following Sam's disappearance.


Victoria Police had focused the search on Woowookarung Regional Park and bushland near the Buninyong Golf Course yesterday
Police said yesterday they had been using mobile phone data

Search area expands for missing Ballarat woman Samantha Murphy

The search for the 51-year-old mother focused on Woowookarung Regional Park and the bushland area near the Buninyong Golf Course yesterday, but has now expanded to Black Hill.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Trooper]

Iam still struggling with the size of the search so quickly. Yes, she was reliable, it was a 40c day, snakes, mineshafts, etc, but it doesn’t usually happen with such intensity within such a short period of time, for an adult.

Country towns are like that. And it is the great Australian story, Lost In The Bush.

Added to that, it's Summer.

It does not surprise me in the least, and least of all the speed that Police took on board , without hesitation, that she was not running according to plan. No one in the police station hesitated, and this is a tremendous example of good instincts taken to the limit.

These were middle aged professional women who called in , one was a vet, one was the town psychiatrist ( Samantha had some jolly nice friends ) women who Got Things Done, they would have laid it out for the copper on the bench at the station in no uncertain terms.

Be a brave young copper who argued with them , is how I see it...

 

[SouthAussie]

Iam still struggling with the size of the search so quickly. Yes, she was reliable, it was a 40c day, snakes, mineshafts, etc, but it doesn’t usually happen with such intensity within such a short period of time, for an adult.

All the factors you mention (plus Mick was getting concerned by 10am when Sam hadn't returned from her run).

And .... The countdown to finding a missing person begins the moment someone concerned for his or her well-being alerts law enforcement.
Investigators are essentially working against the clock, as with each passing hour decreases the likelihood that the subject will be found

Why the first 72 hours in a missing persons investigation are the most critical, according to criminology experts

The number of incoming leads tend to drop after the first days of the investigation, criminology experts tell ABC News.

abcnews.go.com

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Some of us have never been sure about that ping time, because it is unverified.

And changes of mind are fine. As more facts emerge people can often change their mind.

I do think there was evidence of a ping(s) due to the fact that the police searched the area behind Buninyong Golf Club the day after Sam went missing. And someone (IIRC a relative or friend) had claimed in MSM that Sam wouldn't have run that way.

We just don't have any verified times of any pings at all. Though we do know that the police were using mobile phone data as early as the day following Sam's disappearance.


Victoria Police had focused the search on Woowookarung Regional Park and bushland near the Buninyong Golf Course yesterday
Police said yesterday they had been using mobile phone data

Search area expands for missing Ballarat woman Samantha Murphy

The search for the 51-year-old mother focused on Woowookarung Regional Park and the bushland area near the Buninyong Golf Course yesterday, but has now expanded to Black Hill.

www.abc.net.au

What new facts have emerged?

 

[SouthAussie]

What new facts have emerged?

The phone was found within the edges of a dam, for one.

 

[drsleuth]

Country towns are like that. And it is the great Australian story, Lost In The Bush.

Added to that, it's Summer.

It does not surprise me in the least, and least of all the speed that Police took on board , without hesitation, that she was not running according to plan. No one in the police station hesitated, and this is a tremendous example of good instincts taken to the limit.

These were middle aged professional women who called in , one was a vet, one was the town psychiatrist ( Samantha had some jolly nice friends ) women who Got Things Done, they would have laid it out for the copper on the bench at the station in no uncertain terms.

Be a brave young copper who argued with them , is how I see it...

I think that Mick or the kids were able to see something from Sam's digital devices, something highly unusual, something they relayed to the police & they took it seriously. Plus the fact Sam was not responding , was highly out of character for her.

The digital footprint will tell this story

All IMO

 

[HoneyBunOne]

Country towns are like that. And it is the great Australian story, Lost In The Bush.

Added to that, it's Summer.

It does not surprise me in the least, and least of all the speed that Police took on board , without hesitation, that she was not running according to plan. No one in the police station hesitated, and this is a tremendous example of good instincts taken to the limit.

These were middle aged professional women who called in , one was a vet, one was the town psychiatrist ( Samantha had some jolly nice friends ) women who Got Things Done, they would have laid it out for the copper on the bench at the station in no uncertain terms.

Be a brave young copper who argued with them , is how I see it...

She was a woman who ran her life like clockwork. She ran a successful business, was likely involved in school/out of school activities with her children, was heavily involved in the arts community, was a runner, likely walked her dogs around the local area, and had friends. No doubt she was acquainted with a variety of people in Ballarat, especially through the business. There's a likelihood that she was known amongst local police (not on a criminal level, just crossing paths in a small-ish community on the edge of Ballarat. For all we know, police vehicles may have been fixed at the Murphy's business) and it was so out of character, coupled with her phone being off, that they moved fast. Add in the heat of the day and the decision could have been made to act promptly.

 

[Trooper]

All the factors you mention (plus Mick was getting concerned by 10am when Sam hadn't returned from her run).

And .... The countdown to finding a missing person begins the moment someone concerned for his or her well-being alerts law enforcement.
Investigators are essentially working against the clock, as with each passing hour decreases the likelihood that the subject will be found

Why the first 72 hours in a missing persons investigation are the most critical, according to criminology experts

The number of incoming leads tend to drop after the first days of the investigation, criminology experts tell ABC News.

abcnews.go.com

Highly likely that at around 10am when Mick floated a query to the police about Samantha, they sent at least a divvy van down, with a couple of constables, one to drive, one to check out the ground, to the running track/road he believed she was on.. .. they'd do a few treks out and back along it, so the search for her could have begun, and probably did begin, at around 10 am and really ramped up at the confirming call by the Brunch ladies at 1pm..


8am ( according to police that's when she was murdered ) at Mt Clear, to 10 am from first police attention = 2 hours, max.

Really Short Time.

Stephenson does not know how long he has, he has no way of knowing when Samantha will be missed, no way of knowing how far she intended to run, no way of knowing who was waiting for her, and where. He is operating in the unknown territory, he has to move fast.

 

[acutename]

The ground was like concrete, the AU bush is like that in Feb. , he would have had to have some mechanical tools to dig a grave, deep enough to fool the CAD dogs, and heat sensors, this takes a lot of time even with a sort of post hole digger, with a shovel, hours, with bare hands, a DAY at least, it's not as easy a job as it may look like, and it's dangerous, too, stuff caves in, you have to start again, you have to shore up what you've dug to dig some more, you make a lot of noise, huffing and puffing and the clang of the shovel on the hard earth is loud... .

he is 6'6" and all muscle- that said, I do not see him looking for manual labor...maybe near a water hole where it would be easier digging or a trash dump site- are those all secured? or he knew of one of the old mines from riding his dirt bike around but it still had to be pretty accessible unless he moved the remains later. (am sure that the police checked the easy places already). just so crazy to kill some one for sport. IMO

 

[Kemug]

The ground was like concrete, the AU bush is like that in Feb. , he would have had to have some mechanical tools to dig a grave, deep enough to fool the CAD dogs, and heat sensors, this takes a lot of time even with a sort of post hole digger, with a shovel, hours, with bare hands, a DAY at least, it's not as easy a job as it may look like, and it's dangerous, too, stuff caves in, you have to start again, you have to shore up what you've dug to dig some more, you make a lot of noise, huffing and puffing and the clang of the shovel on the hard earth is loud... .

The hard ground may indicate that she is indeed down a mine shaft.