Site of attack on JNS: Can it lead to clues about Jacob?

[JoeTV2015]

Yes, kind of what I'm thinking. Since the actual location appears to be so close to Cold Spring (less than 2 miles from where JS was abducted) I think it is more likely that JEW's assault site was 1 to 3 miles outside St. Joseph. This means a different place. If we use the property of JS' assault as a template for what this POI might choose, I think we could find similar sites in a radius of 1 to 3 miles from DR's driveway. That is my plan and I will post what I find. I think I can narrow it down to maybe three sites. Once done, we can put all these sites into one list. With less than 10 sites I think the odds would be around 50/50 that JEW's remains could be found on one of them.

I've been following this case from afar since I was a kid, and catching up on here the past few days. Everyone's efforts here to crack this case and get this ghoul locked up are pretty remarkable. Thought I'd join in, maybe fresh eyes can be of use to those of you who've been chewing on the same info for so long.

Firstly, this is absolutely the location in the video. The utility boxes are just obscured by the overgrowth. Check out the pattern of the trees on the horizon. This is where the news crew was. Secondly, I think you're right about looking in -- not this location, as the cops were aware of it back then -- but corresponding locations. And one thing that immediately jumps out to me about this specific location are the two exit routes... also present in the '91 map. A car parked with its lights off where the two roads connect to form the triangle could just roll away if headlights turn down onto either path, making an easy escape. Maybe start looking for rural road off-shoots that connect just a little ways into the trees?

 

[Sigrun]

I've been following this case from afar since I was a kid, and catching up on here the past few days. Everyone's efforts here to crack this case and get this ghoul locked up are pretty remarkable. Thought I'd join in, maybe fresh eyes can be of use to those of you who've been chewing on the same info for so long.

Firstly, this is absolutely the location in the video. The utility boxes are just obscured by the overgrowth. Check out the pattern of the trees on the horizon. This is where the news crew was. Secondly, I think you're right about looking in -- not this location, as the cops were aware of it back then -- but corresponding locations. And one thing that immediately jumps out to me about this specific location are the two exit routes... also present in the '91 map. A car parked with its lights off where the two roads connect to form the triangle could just roll away if headlights turn down onto either path, making an easy escape. Maybe start looking for rural road off-shoots that connect just a little ways into the trees?

Thanks for joining and exactly, I was going to try to find properties close to St. Joseph (1-3 mile radius) that match what appears to be the POI's preferred choice. It will take a while, but I'll post it when I'm done.

 

[Sigrun]

First candidate site within 1-3 miles radius of DR's driveway. This property shares the same attributes that were apparently important criterion for the POI in the JS assault:

45.578670, -94.279632

 

[Sigrun]

Second site, same criterion:

45.546398, -94.377386

 

[JoeTV2015]

First candidate site within 1-3 miles radius of DR's driveway. This property shares the same attributes that were apparently important criterion for the POI in the JS assault:

45.578670, -94.279632

A wild guess that, upon examination, is anything but. Seriously, study the environs of the abduction and then look again. From the POI perspective, this could very well be his intended destination that night- the nearest isolated tract near a heavily wooded area to the abduction site with two easy exits. There are no similar locations as close. I'd start here.

 

[HEY YOU!]

A wild guess that, upon examination, is anything but. Seriously, study the environs of the abduction and then look again. From the POI perspective, this could very well be his intended destination that night- the nearest isolated tract near a heavily wooded area to the abduction site with two easy exits. There are no similar locations as close. I'd start here.

But did this abduction go as planned? And if it did not, would DH leave the vicinity in a panic? If he had a scanner, he was well aware of the rather quick police response. How long from when Aaron and Trevor left the scene to when cops were called? I believe it was a 6 minute response from cops to arrive at the neighbor's house. Was it 5-10 minutes time that it took for Aaron and Trevor to reach the nieghbor's, tell the story and call the police?? So the scanner is going off at about 10-15 minutes after he has Jacob in the car. Is he already at the site where he planned to commit his next crime on Jacob? If it was only 1-3 miles from DR driveway, then yes. He would be in the middle of the attack on Jacob at that time when the scanner went off. What would his next reaction be? Would he immediately dispatch of Jacob or would he panic and leave the scene with Jacob? Would Jacob hear the scanner and try to run and then DH subdues him and takes him where? What happens next in this scenerio?


If he is the guy who did the Paynesville attacks and we know he was responsible, how far did he plan to escalate with Jacob this time? How did his planned escalated attack get interfered with when cops showed up? As far as we know, he never had law enforcement come after him until this attack on Jacob. That must have affected his next move with Jacob. Where is Jacob?

 

[Sigrun]

But did this abduction go as planned?

I think not.

... So the scanner is going off at about 10-15 minutes after he has Jacob in the car.

About the same amount of time it takes to drive to this location, and for the car to stop.

... He would be in the middle of the attack on Jacob at that time when the scanner went off.

Yes, or would have just stopped.

What would his next reaction be?

If upon arriving JEW hears the scanner and bolts, then it isn't hard to predict what most likely happened. Here we have a young man with an insatiable, dark urge that he cannot control, who is supremely confident he cannot be caught, and who has a gross misapprehension of risk. And he has a pistol in his hand. Now add to that the fact that, unlike the others, JEW did not return.

What happens next in this scenerio?

imo, most likely JEW opened the front passenger door, fled and was shot in the back. He didn't get more than 20 feet from the car. Given the dynamic here, I would doubt JEW was shot more than once and he may have continued to flee a short distance more before expiring.

... Where is Jacob?

imo, most likely in the pines, north of St. Joseph about 2 miles from DR's driveway.

 

[Sere-nity]

He shut off the scanner when people started talking over it with JS's abduction. Are we assuming he left it on when he heard voices with Jacob?


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[Sigrun]

... when people started talking over it ...

Correct.

 

[bodester413]

I checked drive time for a site I had previously disregarded. Merden Lake. At first it looked at least half an hour away from the DH driveway, but it's 14 minutes. There are two spots that look like gravel pits.

 

[HEY YOU!]

I keep wondering if DH's Ford Exp was a manual transmission. That would mean he had less control of his passenger. One hand on the wheel and one on the stick shift...no hand to hold a gun to Jacob. He could not use the same car he used with Jared, so he took a different car for his next escalation with Jacob. Perhaps he did not think it through. Having to shift the car up and down these side streets means less control of his victim. He seems at this point to have an awareness that he could get caught since he is changing locations and cars.

 

[human]

I think not.

About the same amount of time it takes to drive to this location, and for the car to stop.

Yes, or would have just stopped.

If upon arriving JEW hears the scanner and bolts, then it isn't hard to predict what most likely happened. Here we have a young man with an insatiable, dark urge that he cannot control, who is supremely confident he cannot be caught, and who has a gross misapprehension of risk. And he has a pistol in his hand. Now add to that the fact that, unlike the others, JEW did not return.

imo, most likely JEW opened the front passenger door, fled and was shot in the back. He didn't get more than 20 feet from the car. Given the dynamic here, I would doubt JEW was shot more than once and he may have continued to flee a short distance more before expiring.

imo, most likely in the pines, north of St. Joseph about 2 miles from DR's driveway.

They were watching for vulture activity at time.

 

[bodester413]

I keep wondering if DH's Ford Exp was a manual transmission. That would mean he had less control of his passenger. One hand on the wheel and one on the stick shift...no hand to hold a gun to Jacob. He could not use the same car he used with Jared, so he took a different car for his next escalation with Jacob. Perhaps he did not think it through. Having to shift the car up and down these side streets means less control of his victim. He seems at this point to have an awareness that he could get caught since he is changing locations and cars.

I was trying to figure that out too. I didn't see any photos of the inside of his Ford EXP. When I looked it up on wikipedia it said you could get automatic or manual in that year. It's definitely harder doing anything when you're driving a manual. It does have more room in the back area than what it looks like though. I think those EXP's where basically Ford Escorts with the back seat removed. Probably had one of those hatch covers too that you can pull over so you can't see into the back window/hatch area.

 

[Sigrun]

I keep wondering if DH's Ford Exp was a manual transmission. That would mean he had less control of his passenger. One hand on the wheel and one on the stick shift...no hand to hold a gun to Jacob. He could not use the same car he used with Jared, so he took a different car for his next escalation with Jacob. Perhaps he did not think it through. Having to shift the car up and down these side streets means less control of his victim. He seems at this point to have an awareness that he could get caught since he is changing locations and cars.

Here is my thinking about all that. First, the big one:

... Perhaps he did not think it through ...

I think that is huge, and exactly what happened. This is the kind of personality we are dealing with. He really had no plan for under what circumstances, for example, he would need to discharge the handgun. He wasn't thinking through any of this very *clearly*. But he did think it through, I think. But only inasmuch as his fantasy remained on script: scare the victim with a firearm but no plan for when/how to use it. He changed locations because he had already zeroed in on JEW and did *not* want to be on the road very long with JEW in the car. He needed something closer to the point of abduction.

On the other point, I think he could have changed cars merely incidentally. It was, after all, 9 months after and he changed cars a lot. And yes, this car was not the windowless van of choice. It had no child safety locks, not much of a back seat, more cramped and possibly a stick as well. Just poor planning by very the kind of person that would tend to plan poorly. What was well-scripted in his mind was the fantasy.

If we examine the area of JS' assault, he wanted privacy and did not want to be seen, even at a distance. He cased the hide. His choice of hide with a 360 degree occluded sight line indicates a strong need for control and comports well with his belief that he "could not be caught" for this. And he traveled only a short distance. I think this POI did not want to convey JEW in his car any more than he had to, and this is key to reconstructing the crime.

 

[HEY YOU!]

Here is my thinking about all that. First, the big one:

I think that is huge, and exactly what happened. This is the kind of personality we are dealing with. He really had no plan for under what circumstances, for example, he would need to discharge the handgun. He wasn't thinking through any of this very *clearly*. But he did think it through, I think. But only inasmuch as his fantasy remained on script: scare the victim with a firearm but no plan for when/how to use it. He changed locations because he had already zeroed in on JEW and did *not* want to be on the road very long with JEW in the car. He needed something closer to the point of abduction.

On the other point, I think he could have changed cars merely incidentally. It was, after all, 9 months after and he changed cars a lot. And yes, this car was not the windowless van of choice. It had no child safety locks, not much of a back seat, more cramped and possibly a stick as well. Just poor planning by very the kind of person that would tend to plan poorly. What was well-scripted in his mind was the fantasy.

If we examine the area of JS' assault, he wanted privacy and did not want to be seen, even at a distance. He cased the hide. His choice of hide with a 360 degree occluded sight line indicates a strong need for control and comports well with his belief that he "could not be caught" for this. And he traveled only a short distance. I think this POI did not want to convey JEW in his car any more than he had to, and this is key to reconstructing the crime.

And to add to the fantasy part, he was so wrapped up in his fantasy that he abducted Jacob leaving 2 witnesses who clearly lived nearby. His fantasy did not let him think through the location where he initially parked to grab Jacob as it was not a full on dirt/gravel road that led away from the scene but a long driveway that he had to turn around in to exit the property. This was not a random grab some kid off of the street in Paynesville and fondle him and let him go situation. This was not a 'safe' abduction of a lone boy on a deserted road where nobody knew about the incident until Jared got home. This was an all out ' I am getting this kid no matter what' scenario. No mask with Jared, maybe was a last minute grab with no planning? Maybe this made him keep items in his car for the next time he felt the urge? Could Jared have just been random? He wasn't wearing a mask and had on fatigues which would be something a victim may remember. Plus he had that appointment at The Red Carpet that he mentioned. Sounds like Jared was an opportunistic grab and not planned.

Does Jared being random suggest that the area where he picked him up was a familiar route? If he had planned Jared, he would have put at least a mask on like he had done previously.

 

[Sigrun]

And to add to the fantasy part, he was so wrapped up in his fantasy that he abducted Jacob leaving 2 witnesses who clearly lived nearby. His fantasy did not let him think through the location where he initially parked to grab Jacob as it was not a full on dirt/gravel road that led away from the scene but a long driveway that he had to turn around in to exit the property. This was not a random grab some kid off of the street in Paynesville and fondle him and let him go situation. This was not a 'safe' abduction of a lone boy on a deserted road where nobody knew about the incident until Jared got home. This was an all out ' I am getting this kid no matter what' scenario. No mask with Jared, maybe was a last minute grab with no planning? Maybe this made him keep items in his car for the next time he felt the urge? Could Jared have just been random? He wasn't wearing a mask and had on fatigues which would be something a victim may remember. Plus he had that appointment at The Red Carpet that he mentioned. Sounds like Jared was an opportunistic grab and not planned.

Does Jared being random suggest that the area where he picked him up was a familiar route? If he had planned Jared, he would have put at least a mask on like he had done previously.

Well, I tend to think that both abductions were planned to some extent because the site where JS was taken is just too-well thought out. He had to know where he was going and planned on abducting someone close to that place. But I agree that the whole JEW thing seems hyper-focused. It was as if he was truly obsessed with JEW. It's more than just desperation; it was like he had longed for a particular person for some time. But that invites a question itself. If he assaulted AL and took the time to "get in his face" (AL seems to know the face better than TW), why did he then switch to JEW? He did not ask names, just ages. So, not sure what all that means.

 

[Sigrun]

If JEW were "accidentally" killed after attempting to flee what was originally intended to be an attack very similar to JS', and if JEW were shot outside the car and buried shortly after, there would be no forensics in the car to speak of. And predators/scavengers key on exposed remains. So, this still seems to be the simplest explanation to me.

 

[human]

If JEW were "accidentally" killed after attempting to flee what was originally intended to be an attack very similar to JS', and if JEW were shot outside the car and buried shortly after, there would be no forensics in the car to speak of. And predators/scavengers key on exposed remains. So, this still seems to be the simplest explanation to me.

How about the fact that LE and the public was watching for vulture activity?

 

[Silverngold]

If JEW were "accidentally" killed after attempting to flee what was originally intended to be an attack very similar to JS', and if JEW were shot outside the car and buried shortly after, there would be no forensics in the car to speak of. And predators/scavengers key on exposed remains. So, this still seems to be the simplest explanation to me.

You guys are doing an amazing job! However, I don't think he was at this road with double exits 3 miles from DR place. If he did shoot him there he would have had to be prepared with a shovel and misc. tools. This doesn't correspond with his thought process. Also would have been premeditated murder which doesn't fit. I think he is at the first set of coordinates you all discussed. The abandoned farm by the ball park. If he shot jw 3 miles from DR farm you would think someone would have heard it when they were searching. They also would have spotted him with the helicopter more likely if he was in close proximity. Remember how the lady at Tom thumb stated this man came in for Campbell's chicken soup and was confused? Not sure how many days later in was. Then repeatedly said they will never find that boy. I'm not so sure he was killed so close to the abduction time and date. Also it concerns me how the boy scout troop leader had a family cabin on big fish lake and went there often, even arrested there. Maybe these two knew of each other. It's a small town. A lot of people who own cabins stash a key somewhere. Maybe DJH knew where a key was and used his cabin for awhile. Just throwing it out there.

 

[HEY YOU!]

You guys are doing an amazing job! However, I don't think he was at this road with double exits 3 miles from DR place. If he did shoot him there he would have had to be prepared with a shovel and misc. tools. This doesn't correspond with his thought process. Also would have been premeditated murder which doesn't fit. I think he is at the first set of coordinates you all discussed. The abandoned farm by the ball park. If he shot jw 3 miles from DR farm you would think someone would have heard it when they were searching. They also would have spotted him with the helicopter more likely if he was in close proximity. Remember how the lady at Tom thumb stated this man came in for Campbell's chicken soup and was confused? Not sure how many days later in was. Then repeatedly said they will never find that boy. I'm not so sure he was killed so close to the abduction time and date. Also it concerns me how the boy scout troop leader had a family cabin on big fish lake and went there often, even arrested there. Maybe these two knew of each other. It's a small town. A lot of people who own cabins stash a key somewhere. Maybe DJH knew where a key was and used his cabin for awhile. Just throwing it out there.

I remember the store clerk said he came in for Campbell's chicken soup and saltines...anybody have a link? And DJH fits the description if I recall correctly.