The GB4 and Shannan Gilbert-Connecting the dots

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I attended the gathering at Oak Beach on the 13th of this month, and GC was there himself. I heard him, with my own 2 ears, state to reporters and to Shannans mom that when she arrived at his house she DID NOT have her hand bag on her at that time. Only her jacket that she had. No extra clothing, just herself, her jacket and a cell phone....

Again, I heard this out of GC own mouth on the 13th of Dec.

:liar::panic::panic::panic::panic::panic:
 
I attended the gathering at Oak Beach on the 13th of this month, and GC was there himself. I heard him, with my own 2 ears, state to reporters and to Shannans mom that when she arrived at his house she DID NOT have her hand bag on her at that time. Only her jacket that she had. No extra clothing, just herself, her jacket and a cell phone....

Again, I heard this out of GC own mouth on the 13th of Dec.

:liar::panic::panic::panic::panic::panic:

Double Thanks Lilmiss. No need to panic .. it just brings us one step closer to knowing the truth.

I guess i should add another scenario #6 to my previous post:

6) SG ran into the marsh and drowned accidentally, and coincidentally MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) had her belongings and happened to toss the items into the same marsh (highly unlikely).

If however SG drowned accidentally without witnesses, don't we think whichever innocent person had her belongings should have simply turned them over to LE or Shannan's family in the belief that SG was simply a missing person. What innocent person would destroy her belongings for any reason?

If GC is correct that Shannan had her cell phone but not her purse, then someone who saw her AFTER she was at GC's not only had her belongings to begin with but met up with Shannan between GC's and the marsh and is responsible for coupling her purse together with her cell phone.


Anyone still think it's a drowning accident?
 
Furthermore, whoever put the cell phone and purse together, also managed to put Shannan's jeans into the same dump site, so there is no question that her jeans being removed were part and parcel of the cell phone / purse scenario prior to her death. What are the chances that SG drowned accidentally after removing her jeans in the same dump location that her purse and cell phone were subsequently found. I say ZILCH !!
 
Furthermore, whoever put the cell phone and purse together, also managed to put Shannan's jeans into the same dump site, so there is no question that her jeans being removed were part and parcel of the cell phone / purse scenario prior to her death. What are the chances that SG drowned accidentally after removing her jeans in the same dump location that her purse and purse were subsequently found. I say ZILCH !!

I say it is as much of a coincindence as a small petite, sex industry worker going to Oak Beach, calling 911 in fear of her life, that someone is trying to killer her, only to discover later, a crap load of sex workers, that fit her profile, dead, in Oak Beach.....

And the girl who went running for her life in fear....? She drowned. :maddening::maddening::maddening::maddening::maddening:
 
This is unlikely but remotely a seventh possibility:
Shannon runs toward the end of Anchor Way toward the opening to the marsh, MP or one of the other participants at the "party" tracks her down, she refuses to get in the vehicle with whoever pulled up, in frustration they toss her overnight bag at her or there is a struggle at MP's car and she grabbed her bag and ran. He has never said that happened, though.

So, the big question is: How did the bag get reunited with Shannon or end up the area were she was found dead?

Why did LE not immediately check the security footage?

Where is Shannon's jacket?

Did they find her other ear ring with her skeleton?

Was she wearing any other jewelry (bracelets, necklaces, etc.) and was any jewelry found with her remains?

She did not drown there. If she were going to drown it would have been in the middle marsh...not in the bramble. With the sun rising within a half hour of her entering the marsh, she did not die of hypothermia and why didn't the dog or helecopter find her?
 
Whether she drowned, died from some drug related problem or was murdered, one point should be pretty clear: Someone tried to cover it up as good as possible. The "as possible" parameter is obviously a variable in that game. We have MP driving around looking for her, following her on foot to the reed. We have JB and the drifter, allegedly doing not much after Shannan left the house obviously in a paranoid state caused by drugs. And we have CPH popping up in the following time for no apparent reason. However, none of them seems to have too much experience with murder. Whoever covered it up was sloppy. One earring got lost and not found to be picked up later by SG's mother. SG's belongings are dropped near to the body, which is in itself stupid, because nobody could calculate in LE's disability to find a body in an area, they could already guess there would be one. So whoever covered it up should have rather calculated in,t he body would be found relatively fast and thus it betrays only the inexperience of the person covering the whole thing up.
So, whatever happened, we can be pretty sure, LISK wasn't involved. And nor was the Manorville dismemberer. Both would have handled the situation more professional.
Having said that, what do we have about connections between JB and CPH? Anything? JB was probably also under the influence of something and I would assume, that drifter too. So they were probably not even able to do too much in terms of practical search. But if one of them called CPH, knowing, he is a retired doctor ... it would at least explain why CPH popped up in the first place.
And MP? A pimp's driver at best. If SG just fall on her nose dead from the drugs, he would have felt the urge to make it all go away too ...
So just a little food for thoughts, have a Merry Christmas everybody.
 
This is unlikely but remotely a seventh possibility:
Shannon runs toward the end of Anchor Way toward the opening to the marsh, MP or one of the other participants at the "party" tracks her down, she refuses to get in the vehicle with whoever pulled up, in frustration they toss her overnight bag at her or there is a struggle at MP's car and she grabbed her bag and ran. He has never said that happened, though.

So, the big question is: How did the bag get reunited with Shannon or end up the area were she was found dead?

Why did LE not immediately check the security footage?

Where is Shannon's jacket?

Did they find her other ear ring with her skeleton?

Was she wearing any other jewelry (bracelets, necklaces, etc.) and was any jewelry found with her remains?

She did not drown there. If she were going to drown it would have been in the middle marsh...not in the bramble. With the sun rising within a half hour of her entering the marsh, she did not die of hypothermia and why didn't the dog or helecopter find her?

Dormer is going to have a lot to explain about these pants and stuff, if her earring is with her...
 
I attended the gathering at Oak Beach on the 13th of this month, and GC was there himself. I heard him, with my own 2 ears, state to reporters and to Shannans mom that when she arrived at his house she DID NOT have her hand bag on her at that time. Only her jacket that she had. No extra clothing, just herself, her jacket and a cell phone....

Again, I heard this out of GC own mouth on the 13th of Dec.

:liar::panic::panic::panic::panic::panic:
\



Thanks Lilmiss and nice to meet you. On the 48 Hours special JB was quoted as saying that jacket lay on his walk for several days. Info gets misconstrued as it gets repeated so I'm going with you on this one, your having heard it from GC's mouth. ;}

The jeans seem kind of like a 'Monkish' clue to me. She was Diva-like so most likely wore tight jeans. If they got wet they would stick to her skin, right? I don't think they could have 'worked off' by running thru the marsh. And since we now know she didn't have an extra pair with her {no bag} that means to get them off either she would have had to remove them or someone else did :waitasec: Ya think?

ETA: Also, it was written her jeans were ripped. I think she hit some brambles which tore them and then was intercepted by CPH near his back yard. Maybe that is why her things were found close together in that area. He scattered her things where he knew LE would eventually figure out she was. It was an area he could look out over from his home, that is if he is guilty and did this. ;}
 
wow,if she in fact did not have her purse at GC's that would change my theory significantly.Maybe GC overlooked it.Wouldn't that mean Pak is pretty much the only suspect?Why would LE try to protect him?
 
wow,if she in fact did not have her purse at GC's that would change my theory significantly.Maybe GC overlooked it.Wouldn't that mean Pak is pretty much the only suspect?Why would LE try to protect him?

He is most likely just part of the mess...after all he was the provider of services, he was the driver and facilitator and possibly became a clean up guy, as well.
 
I doubt, LE protects Pak. But after all this time, they have no fingerprints on the purse, no other forensic link and theoretically, JB, the drifter, CPH or any other yet unknown person could have dumped the purse. Since the prosecution has to prove, Pak cleaned up while the defense could just spread doubts, no DA would go to court with such a weak case, not after Casey Anthony. So they need more, much more to pin anybody and right now, I don't see any way to give them that. Things would be different, if one of the persons present in that night would break.
 
I did read last night in an article that Shannan had changed into boots in MP car on her way to LI. I will try and locate that article/quote, so this makes me think she indeed have a bag of extra clothes with her. It would make sense that it was left in the car while she went to work.
Then I would assume MP had dumped these things. Now are they the same items that were recovered?

edit to add here:
I am not even sure I am posting this in the right thread I lost track after an extremely long day yesterday and not enough coffee this morning! :)
http://www.newsday.com/news/breaking/gilbert-vanishing-reaches-one-year-mark-1.2849214

You are right about that - it has been written that Shannan changed into boots on her way to LI, but changing footwear is one thing and changing clothes is another. I personally don't think it stands to follow that just because she changed her footwear that means she changed her clothes too. It's pretty commonplace to change one's footwear going from one situation to another (e.g. day to night) but not clothing. In fact the very reason you'd change your footwear would be to change your look without having to change your clothes. And unless she was changing into a dress, which has not been indicated and would be unlikely since she wouldn't want to call attention to herself, there really wouldn't be any reason for her to change out of her jeans. Changing a top or adding or removing something e.g. a sweater, if anything, would be more likely, I think.

On another topic - I don't see the MO pertaining to the 4 other women can be expected in Shannan's case, since the circumstances are so different and would not have necessarily allowed a SK to do things the same way (e.g. she had called attention to herself and her plight prior to disappearing.) Therefore I don't understand why the difference in apparent MO would prove anything and why it would even be a consideration, under the circumstances.
 
This is unlikely but remotely a seventh possibility:
Shannon runs toward the end of Anchor Way toward the opening to the marsh, MP or one of the other participants at the "party" tracks her down, she refuses to get in the vehicle with whoever pulled up, in frustration they toss her overnight bag at her or there is a struggle at MP's car and she grabbed her bag and ran. He has never said that happened, though.

So, the big question is: How did the bag get reunited with Shannon or end up the area were she was found dead?

Why did LE not immediately check the security footage?

Where is Shannon's jacket?

Did they find her other ear ring with her skeleton?

Was she wearing any other jewelry (bracelets, necklaces, etc.) and was any jewelry found with her remains?

She did not drown there. If she were going to drown it would have been in the middle marsh...not in the bramble. With the sun rising within a half hour of her entering the marsh, she did not die of hypothermia and why didn't the dog or helecopter find her?

That's a particularly interesting question about the earring...I wonder.
 
wow,if she in fact did not have her purse at GC's that would change my theory significantly.Maybe GC overlooked it.Wouldn't that mean Pak is pretty much the only suspect?Why would LE try to protect him?

She could have brought her purse into JB's house with her. There was lip gloss found as well - she'd probably want her purse so she could reapply makeup/brush her hair, whatever (while she was there.) I don't think women like to separated from their purses. So there's no guarantee that she left it in MP's vehicle.
 
On the other board somebody posted the minutes of a public safety meeting that took place May 5, 2011 that concerned the LISK case amongst other things. What caught my eye wasn't the LISK stuff, but rather a few members of the Sayville area complaining about an overly assertive, power hungry police officer who had gone so far as to arrest and charge one of his neighbors wives with child endangerment.

Several people complain about this officer and how he uses "undue influence" to intimidate and harass them. Which reminded me that

1. At certain points during the investigation it has been theorized that the LISK was a member of law enforcement.

and

2. Dennis Rader, though not a police officer, engaged in the same tactics towards his neighbors, including putting in a rush order to have the dog of a woman he was stalking euthanized.

Anyway, the cop doesn't live all that far from Gilgo. Maybe he disposed of the bodies after he'd finished handing out tickets on the parkway and the driver he had pulled over had driven off.

Or maybe he's just a guy on a power trip. For some reason while reading these minutes this caught my interest.

http://legis.suffolkcountyny.gov/clerk/cmeet/ps/2011/PS050511.pdf
 
On the other board somebody posted the minutes of a public safety meeting that took place May 5, 2011 that concerned the LISK case amongst other things. What caught my eye wasn't the LISK stuff, but rather a few members of the Sayville area complaining about an overly assertive, power hungry police officer who had gone so far as to arrest and charge one of his neighbors wives with child endangerment.

Several people complain about this officer and how he uses "undue influence" to intimidate and harass them. Which reminded me that

1. At certain points during the investigation it has been theorized that the LISK was a member of law enforcement.

and

2. Dennis Rader, though not a police officer, engaged in the same tactics towards his neighbors, including putting in a rush order to have the dog of a woman he was stalking euthanized.

Anyway, the cop doesn't live all that far from Gilgo. Maybe he disposed of the bodies after he'd finished handing out tickets on the parkway and the driver he had pulled over had driven off.

Or maybe he's just a guy on a power trip. For some reason while reading these minutes this caught my interest.

http://legis.suffolkcountyny.gov/clerk/cmeet/ps/2011/PS050511.pdf

I just browsed over this. Lets not forget, this protocol includes only one side of the story, a number of people, who intentionally grouped up to go to that meeting to complain about this Officer Burgos.
We have basically four to six bodies in the LISK case and the rest in the Manorville dismemberer case. To me, it appears unlikely, that Burgos would be the LISK for a very simple reason:
The LISK murders happened with a year cool down between them and a gap in 2008. This is a very long CD, too long to stay constant. The only conclusion is, LISK is also killing elsewhere, he is not the whole year in the area. Police officers ARE the whole year in the area. So, I don't think any police officer is the LISK and that includes Burgos as well.
And the Manorville murders show in the details a tendency to overcompensate for a self-perceived underdog position in life combined with some real psychopathic traits. There's a significant difference between a strangler and home invader like Rader and this kind of animal. The Manorville killer would be in normal life rather shy, civilized and for sure manipulative in a way aimed to make people like him. Burgos does exactly the opposite.
So bottomline: Burgos may is not a nice guy, maybe he is involved in some kind of neighborhood feud, even maybe, he is a killer, fine, but he isn't LISK nor is he the Manorville killer.
 
Let us assume the following:

The deceased escorts had met the serial killer on business at least one time, possibly several times, prior to their demise. Because of the prior contacts the escorts trusted the SK, since nothing bad happened before. I say this because it seems the deceased escorts had been less vigilant when going out on their last calls. That is why I suspect prior contacts and the escort trusting the SK.

Let us say that this was the SK and Shannan’s first contact, he was checking her out so to speak. That is why a) he was not concerned that she had a driver with her, b) he was not going to harm her and would let her go. c) No sexual act took place (according to JB).

The Oak Beach outcall was an opportunity for Shannan to build trust in the SK. While at JB’s house SG discovered something that scared the living daylights out of her and she ran. The SK had a problem. (Supposedly there were three men at SN’s house that night; might there have been more?)
He had to silence SG, (or he would be identified and caught) and that is what happened.

Do not get obsessed with body placements etc, the SK is deranged and what seems logical and sensible to him will not be logical or sensible to you.

My hunch is that the SK is one of the men that were at the house that night, he might be somebody other than the three men identified already (JB, PCH, the drifter) or he is one of them.

As to why the SK started dumping the bodies after SG’s disappearance is obvious. He was in possession of the bodies, some for many months. If SG had said something to somebody, the SK did not want to be caught with the bodies in his possession.

LE should focus on
1) Who was in JB’s house when Shannan was there?
2) What she could have heard?
3) What she might have seen?

I believe in the 23 minute phone call Shannan told LE what she heard/saw. Dormer is behaving like he does not know anything; ‘she drowned’ because he does not have enough evidence yet for a conviction. He needs something more than the words of a dead escort on a 911 call.

Has LE done a full forensic search of JB’s and PH’s homes? Why not? Probably it is too late now.

Who is/was drifter, has he been identified? What is his story? Just as likely he is SK as PCH or JB.

Police are holding back info as they should; contents of SG’s 911 call; what was purchased at pharmacy; who went to the pharmacy; was there a prescription involved, and which doctor issued it?

Did any of the skeletal remains show signs of medical expertise?

Dormer cannot be as ‘thick’ as he comes across, is he hiding something to protect the integrity of the investigation, or is he protecting someone?
 
I'm just thinking that even though the SK instructed the girls not to bring their phone with them, I don't think many girls in their position would.

Escorts/prostitutes knows that what they are doing could be potentially dangerous and would still like to have their phone, maybe hidden in a "secret" room in their handbag.

(You all know how bags are these days.... millions of small sewn in rooms so you won't be able to find anything!!)
 
Let us assume the following:

The deceased escorts had met the serial killer on business at least one time, possibly several times, prior to their demise. Because of the prior contacts the escorts trusted the SK, since nothing bad happened before. I say this because it seems the deceased escorts had been less vigilant when going out on their last calls. That is why I suspect prior contacts and the escort trusting the SK.

This theory hangs on two underlying assumptions:

a.) It means, the killer is a John and the escorts were killed at their umpteenths visit at this John's place or a meeting with this John at least.

b.) it implicitly assumes, said John would operate out of LI.

The problem is, he may even operates out of LI, but we know in at least one of the cases, the victim made it back from the last client to NYC to the bus terminal. And the last John she had was in a hotel in NYC not far from the terminal at all, not in LI.
The whole reason to go for JB or the drifter or Pak is the connection with SG. Now, if SG is unconnected to the LISK and Manorville murders, as it appears, we need to look at the GB4 again without any assumptions based on the SG case because it's highly likely that the person who killed SG (if she was murdered in the first place) didn't know about the bodies further down the beach. And vice versa, the person dropping the GB4 probably have never heard of SG before.

Let us say that this was the SK and Shannan’s first contact, he was checking her out so to speak. That is why a) he was not concerned that she had a driver with her, b) he was not going to harm her and would let her go. c) No sexual act took place (according to JB).

He in fact contracted the driver ... and why would I believe, no sexual contact took place when this statement comes form a guy who ordered just a prostitute a la carte? At least the intention was there, so the only reason no sexual contact happened was, that SG suddenly ran out with a bad trip.
My main problem with this theory is, this repeated visits would classify as a variant of a stalker type personality. Stalker type personality come basically in two forms:

- The personal stalker
This type, as SK, has a very narrow knitted victimology showing off victims of similar optical traits, simply because the stalking process starts with seeing. The GB4 don't fulfill that criteria.

- The symbolic stalker
This type bases his urge to stalk someone on a symbolic value. In other words, the victim isn't as important as person as it is as a symbol for an event, a group of persons or a single person in the sense of a surrogate. Typically, this type would have a wider varying victimology in which the victims only one or two aspects have in common, because one of those will be the connection to the symbolic value that determined the choice of victim, the other ones normally come from the availability of victims. I can't see JB fulfilling that criteria, nor Pak, nor CPH.

However, all stalker type personalities start stalking after seeing the victims. There are rare cases known, that seeing a photo did the job, but that's really rare and mostly limited to celebrity stalkers. So, if you're right, it would mean, the killer has seen the victims somewhere BEFORE he first booked them to check out further on them.

The Oak Beach outcall was an opportunity for Shannan to build trust in the SK. While at JB’s house SG discovered something that scared the living daylights out of her and she ran. The SK had a problem. (Supposedly there were three men at SN’s house that night; might there have been more?)
He had to silence SG, (or he would be identified and caught) and that is what happened.

No SK would try something in a lose group of people, unless it's a team, a pack or a lose pack (compare the Freeway Stranglers for an example of those). With all kinds of antisocial personality disorders comes a certain degree of paranoia.

Do not get obsessed with body placements etc, the SK is deranged and what seems logical and sensible to him will not be logical or sensible to you.

In fact, those things in most cases make a lot of sense and include a lot of logic to them. The trick is to follow their logic, not your own. The general dismissal is normally the reason why it takes in the US average 15-17 years to catch an SK,

My hunch is that the SK is one of the men that were at the house that night, he might be somebody other than the three men identified already (JB, PCH, the drifter) or he is one of them.

I was mobbed several times for pointing out, that there is no piece of evidence, no behavioral connection, simply nothing, that connects SG to the GB4 or the Manorville victims. Still, as the events showed, all details point out, LISK and SG's killer (if she was murdered at all) aren't identical. In the cases of the GB4, we see a serial killer who follows his own star. He does so coldly and controlled, at least over most of the time, and he knows what he is doing. He has probably also studied other serial killers and to a point, he is pretty proud of his work. On the other hand, in the case of SG, we see someone covering up in a manner, subtle as a steam hammer without the faintest creativity or knowledge. Ask yourself, what kind of moron woul drop a purse with an ID in the vicinity of the body? Only an inexperienced moron. Different kind of animal.

As to why the SK started dumping the bodies after SG’s disappearance is obvious. He was in possession of the bodies, some for many months. If SG had said something to somebody, the SK did not want to be caught with the bodies in his possession.

This ignores the behavioral details of the dump site. The placing, the wrapping, the exact distances between the bodies, this all indicates a kind of trophy yard. This wasn't just dumping (and yes, I think, I thought initially as mere dumping ground without signs of remorse, but the more details, I see, the more I change to trophy yard). So, the bodies were out there for a long time, all but one since before SG died.

LE should focus on
1) Who was in JB’s house when Shannan was there?
2) What she could have heard?
3) What she might have seen?

In fact, they searched his house, they got his SUV (which was white, Pak's was the black one). So, they did exactly that and it brought them to nowhere.

I believe in the 23 minute phone call Shannan told LE what she heard/saw. Dormer is behaving like he does not know anything; ‘she drowned’ because he does not have enough evidence yet for a conviction. He needs something more than the words of a dead escort on a 911 call.

You forget another possibility: Dormer is maybe just a moron fearing for his further career.

Has LE done a full forensic search of JB’s and PH’s homes? Why not? Probably it is too late now.

In fact, they did. At the same time JB underwent a lie detector test which came back inconclusive (means, he lied about something but not about not having murdered SG). His SUV was also checked for fibers and traces of body transport. Nothing came up, neither in the car nor in the house.

Who is/was drifter, has he been identified? What is his story? Just as likely he is SK as PCH or JB.

He was identified, but I forgot his name again. Go back in this thread and you find some hints about this drifter.

Police are holding back info as they should; contents of SG’s 911 call; what was purchased at pharmacy; who went to the pharmacy; was there a prescription involved, and which doctor issued it?

There are two kinds of information: One, you can use to pin a suspect to a crime. Details. And then some, that, if going public, would help to cathc an SK with the public's help. Unfortunately, in the last forty years, LE didn't learn to estimate which kind of information they have, not did they learn to listen to the public. Some SKs were almost literally dragged to the police's doorsteps and LE still let them go for more kills (for example Gacy).
Did any of the skeletal remains show signs of medical expertise?

Dormer cannot be as ‘thick’ as he comes across, is he hiding something to protect the integrity of the investigation, or is he protecting someone?

Why can't he be that thick? He appears to me entirely willing and able, at least in that aspect. And of course, he is protecting someone ... his own sorry rear and his career.
 
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