The GB4 and Shannan Gilbert-Connecting the dots

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I was a bit busy with other things, so I try to catch up. The idea with the movie/music guy has some merit, I think, at least as work theory for now. Wayne Williams rode that trick in the Atlanta Child Murders. However, the combination money (indicating client) and career chance (the Williams ruse) sounds hard to sell. Normally, if the victims wouldn't have been Craigslist escorts but just women from a certain are, I would think, this guy promised to pay not for sex but for a testshot or testtape (whatever those are called in the movie/music industry). The question is, how could he have figured this interest in the women?

Hi Peter, I heard a comment made on TV recently where they were discussing the case and in particular the victim from Maine.

It was said one of the girls told someone in her family she was going to go model for someone.

I'm wondering if 'modeling' as in having photos taken by the client, could be a common denominator for the victims. Their pay seemed quite high to me as if there was something 'special' they were being hired to do.

Just a thought but it could narrow down a possible killer IMO
 
Gilbert's body likely found:

NEW YORK - Police on Tuesday said they found a body believed to be that of missing Craigslist prostitute Shannan Gilbert in a marsh on Long Island where she likely got stuck while fleeing a client's home and died.


Her purse and ID found somewhat near the location:

Last week, the search turned up Gilbert's purse, containing her ID, cell phone and lip gloss, as well as her jeans and shoes about a quarter mile from where the body was found.

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/12/13/police-believe-ny-body-is-craigslist-prostitute
 
Now, they will know if Shannan was dressed and if the bag, shoes and jeans were extras. If she is clothed then it is even more important to find out if any of those people who called 911 saw Shannan carrying a bag/purse or just her jacket and cellphone.

I keep wondering why none of her belongings were found on the day she disappeared. LE was told she ran off toward the marsh...they said they brought in search teams and a helicopter. Did they do it just for show or did they really look? What if she did get pulled into a vehicle and her remains and body were dumped later...after LE left the area. We know that at least two other victims were dumped after Shannan went missing. Hopefully, the medical examiner's office and forensics will be able to tell how long all of her belongings and remains have been out in the elements.

An exact location of her remains will be very informative. If her remains are within tossing distance of the OP then it is likely she and her belongings were dumped later.
 
Now it will take months till we hear from the results of the autopsy. However, it will be interesting to know, because if she really just ran into the marsh in a drugged state and drowned, well, you know, then I am at least in one part proven head on with my theory and the wildest mobbers here around can kiss all of their theories about Dr. Hackett good-bye. Looking forward to the next developments.
 
I think this article gives an interesting new take on the case as a whole, considering everything we have learned up to Nov 30th:

http://thestir.cafemom.com/in_the_news/129448/6_new_facts_about_long
'THE STIR on Facebook'


6 New Facts About Long Island Serial Killer to Terrify Everyone All Over Again


Snippet ~ the clincher of a final statement:

" . . . . Do you ever wonder that you might not know your neighbors as well as you think you do?"
 
Hi,

I read the article and I'm not too impressed about those facts. First thing, you have to keep in mind, is, that this article is not only guess but guess based on the guesses of LE and run through the filter of what they deem as politically correct to tell. Reality looks a little different:

- - it's one killer, not many
As of yet, we have to see one piece of evidence that the one dismembering women and the one just parking them along the road are the same. The methods of killing, the way of disposal, the degree of boldness and the different degrees of remorse still point out two serial killers. To ignore such details have in the past led several times into missing someone and it's not that rare to have two SKs in one area. During the Hillside Strangler investigation, the investigators missed Alcala because they thought it's so unlikely to have one more around after they dealt already with a team. Lucas and Toole crossed ways with Alan Shore. The Grim-Sleeper had another guy in his own backyard. For Ted Bundy, we have at least two more whose work was booked on Bundy. So to wish it's only one is not a fact.

- All victims were sex workers
In fact, we know for five victims they were, can assume it for a sixth and the child was the kid of a sex worker. The rest as of yet, is assumption. Legit speculation if you want to call it that way. However, over the last five decades, at least half of all victims of SKs around the world were sex workers. Hanson, Albright, occasionally Bundy, the Hillside Stranglers, they all killed prostitutes. Which doesn't mean they were all one and the same person in the first place. And looking a little closer at it, we can recognize little details in kill method (strangulation and beating are the top favorites of SKs, followed by guns), disposal (in remote areas like Hanson did or near to the redlight district as Albright did?), mutilation (Albright went for the eyeballs, Hanson didn't mutilate at all, Alcala used remote ways he found on maps). So even if they would be all sex workers, it doesn't prove it was just one and it doesn't say, he wouldn't take someone else next time if he finds the opportunity.

- Shannan Gilbert is not connected
We have to wait for a little more information about the autopsy results. However, I mentioned earlier doubts, she was connected at all and I won't stop that now. So to me, it's not a surprise. Because if she would have been a victim to the guy who killed the GB4, LE would have found her body with them and if it would have been the dismemberer, she would have re-appeared at least partially a lot earlier. So well, when I told my doubts, it wasn't hard fact, now it looks as if it will be soon.

- Police fears new victims
So Dormer assumes any normal serial killer to stop and lay down when police is behind them? But not this one? Huh?
Lets face it, there were three cases I heard of yet, when a known SK stopped:
BTK stopped because he was busy having a family
Buono, one of the Hillside Stranglers wanted to lay low. Bianchi, the other one didn't and so it didn't work out.
In France was a case of a guy who strangulated regularly a prostitute all two weeks. Later they found out, he was a trucker, had a new route and killed now in Asutria and Italy.
So, SKs normally don't stop. Police activity enforces them often to go bolder, mock LE and indulge in their feeling of superiority. So yes, Dormer is right to fear new victims. But they can be everywhere. What makes him think in the first place, the GB4-stretch was the only of the killer's private grave yards?

- He is not a cop
Now, we have to congratulate Mr Dormer for sure to have figured something in December, others had figured out in Spring already. Cops are there the whole year, this guy was there during summer/early Fall only. Almost all serial killers have diminishing cool down periods. A constant timing and skipping one year is a warning sign about someone who kills also in other places. And the alleged knowledge about police work was rather low level and included some actual misperceptions.

- He is from Long Island
The person who wants to drop bodies there need to know that this beach exists. The rest is just using a road. So there is no need for the killer to acutally be a local. Rifkin dropped his victims in LI as well and he was no LI local. Bundy killed in five states and yes, for times, he was local in two areas of those. Still, he found always enough remote places to dispose of the bodies. So the choice of this stretch of piece is no prove, he is a local. In fact, only in one case since the 1970s (and we talk here worldwide about thousand plus cases in that time), the dumping ground was really connected to a killer who once lived near to it and that was Buono, the older of the Hillside Stranglers.

So well, I am not ready to take, what Dormer assumes, as facts. The game is still open for other ideas.
 
Hi,

I read the article and I'm not too impressed about those facts. First thing, you have to keep in mind, is, that this article is not only guess but guess based on the guesses of LE and run through the filter of what they deem as politically correct to tell. Reality looks a little different:

- - it's one killer, not many
As of yet, we have to see one piece of evidence that the one dismembering women and the one just parking them along the road are the same. The methods of killing, the way of disposal, the degree of boldness and the different degrees of remorse still point out two serial killers. To ignore such details have in the past led several times into missing someone and it's not that rare to have two SKs in one area. During the Hillside Strangler investigation, the investigators missed Alcala because they thought it's so unlikely to have one more around after they dealt already with a team. Lucas and Toole crossed ways with Alan Shore. The Grim-Sleeper had another guy in his own backyard. For Ted Bundy, we have at least two more whose work was booked on Bundy. So to wish it's only one is not a fact.

- All victims were sex workers
In fact, we know for five victims they were, can assume it for a sixth and the child was the kid of a sex worker. The rest as of yet, is assumption. Legit speculation if you want to call it that way. However, over the last five decades, at least half of all victims of SKs around the world were sex workers. Hanson, Albright, occasionally Bundy, the Hillside Stranglers, they all killed prostitutes. Which doesn't mean they were all one and the same person in the first place. And looking a little closer at it, we can recognize little details in kill method (strangulation and beating are the top favorites of SKs, followed by guns), disposal (in remote areas like Hanson did or near to the redlight district as Albright did?), mutilation (Albright went for the eyeballs, Hanson didn't mutilate at all, Alcala used remote ways he found on maps). So even if they would be all sex workers, it doesn't prove it was just one and it doesn't say, he wouldn't take someone else next time if he finds the opportunity.

- Shannan Gilbert is not connected
We have to wait for a little more information about the autopsy results. However, I mentioned earlier doubts, she was connected at all and I won't stop that now. So to me, it's not a surprise. Because if she would have been a victim to the guy who killed the GB4, LE would have found her body with them and if it would have been the dismemberer, she would have re-appeared at least partially a lot earlier. So well, when I told my doubts, it wasn't hard fact, now it looks as if it will be soon.

- Police fears new victims
So Dormer assumes any normal serial killer to stop and lay down when police is behind them? But not this one? Huh?
Lets face it, there were three cases I heard of yet, when a known SK stopped:
BTK stopped because he was busy having a family
Buono, one of the Hillside Stranglers wanted to lay low. Bianchi, the other one didn't and so it didn't work out.
In France was a case of a guy who strangulated regularly a prostitute all two weeks. Later they found out, he was a trucker, had a new route and killed now in Asutria and Italy.
So, SKs normally don't stop. Police activity enforces them often to go bolder, mock LE and indulge in their feeling of superiority. So yes, Dormer is right to fear new victims. But they can be everywhere. What makes him think in the first place, the GB4-stretch was the only of the killer's private grave yards?

- He is not a cop
Now, we have to congratulate Mr Dormer for sure to have figured something in December, others had figured out in Spring already. Cops are there the whole year, this guy was there during summer/early Fall only. Almost all serial killers have diminishing cool down periods. A constant timing and skipping one year is a warning sign about someone who kills also in other places. And the alleged knowledge about police work was rather low level and included some actual misperceptions.

- He is from Long Island
The person who wants to drop bodies there need to know that this beach exists. The rest is just using a road. So there is no need for the killer to acutally be a local. Rifkin dropped his victims in LI as well and he was no LI local. Bundy killed in five states and yes, for times, he was local in two areas of those. Still, he found always enough remote places to dispose of the bodies. So the choice of this stretch of piece is no prove, he is a local. In fact, only in one case since the 1970s (and we talk here worldwide about thousand plus cases in that time), the dumping ground was really connected to a killer who once lived near to it and that was Buono, the older of the Hillside Stranglers.

So well, I am not ready to take, what Dormer assumes, as facts. The game is still open for other ideas.

Joel Rifkin lived and grew up in East Meadow
 
Joel Rifkin lived and grew up in East Meadow

Yep, and where did he drop most of his bodies ... oops East River ... And East Meadow is not on the peninsula. So, if to be born in TX gives you the label of Texas local, yes, I have to agree, Rifkin was a LI local (because he lived in another part of a quite big area).
Oh, and btw, in fact Rifkin was pretty all over the place for his landscaping business.
The real question is, how local has someone to be to figure out, this stretch of remote beach would be a nice dumping ground. I say, not too much.
 
Yep, and where did he drop most of his bodies ... oops East River ... And East Meadow is not on the peninsula. So, if to be born in TX gives you the label of Texas local, yes, I have to agree, Rifkin was a LI local (because he lived in another part of a quite big area).
Oh, and btw, in fact Rifkin was pretty all over the place for his landscaping business.
The real question is, how local has someone to be to figure out, this stretch of remote beach would be a nice dumping ground. I say, not too much.

What peninsula? If you're talking about li it most certainly is. Rifkin lived on LI his entire life except for when he was in college upstate.
 
What peninsula? If you're talking about li it most certainly is. Rifkin lived on LI his entire life except for when he was in college upstate.

East Meadow is on the mainland part of NY, Gilgo Beach on the Peninsula (as in that T-shaped thing appearing on maps). This is about 17 miles distance (using roads). So, how much local is local in this case? Ask yourself, how many places 17 miles away from your home you know as good as Dormer assumes, this guy does know the Gilgo Beach?
And, coming back to Rifkin: He killed often in his car in NYC and outskirts. So, was he, with reference to where he dropped his bodies or with respect to where he found his victims a local?
So, what I see once more, this whole idea of a local is a dangerous thing for two reasons:

1.) The degree of knowledge about an area needed to drop bodies there is widely over-estimated. There is no special knowledge needed to drop bodies anywhere. All needed information is basically available in books, internet and of course TV in our time. The rather interesting question is, why did he pick this area from the menu, he could have found that way. And that's a behavioral question, not a geographical one.
2.) Regardless, what is quoted so frequently in bad movies and books, SKs rarely really want to be caught. Thus, they implement, as long as they are still possible to uphold a certain degree of organization, some countermeasures like dropping bodies not where they live. There are regularly only two kinds of SKs you will find sitting right next to their body collection: Keepers and low organized killers with a hunting pattern involving luring as disorganized victims. So since we know, the one who dropped the GB4 is not a keeper (they were found on a beach), this would be a sign of a medium or low organization level if he would really sit somewhere around the dump sites. And we know, he is around in NYC as well, remember the phone calls from the cell phone of one of the victims. So, if he lives in LI, he made the call from NYC intentionally, thus indication countermeasure and in consequence a higher organization level. It just doesn't fit together.
Both factors together can lead to a self-blindsiding.

However, it is entirely possible, the killer lives not in NYC but in one of the suburbs of LI, somewhere on the mainland side. The important possibility to check out, is for me, that he maybe hunts in NYC (like Rifkin did). That means, there is maybe someone, who may has seen something. The mere dismissal of ideas NEVER brought any investigation forward.
 
East Meadow is 30-40 minutes to the East River. Joel also dumped on Long Island and took women to his parents house.

google maps actually says from Garden Street East Meadow to the East River in Bklyn is 33 minutes.
 
So, this means, you know any places 33 minutes from your home excellent? Because that is the question in the actual case. I wouldn't call anybody living 33 minutes away as "local". But then, people know sometimes places 200 miles away from home better than places 10 miles away. They are not local, they were only there and paid attention. Means, this whole "local because he knows the beach" proves effectively nothing.
 
Am only on my second cup of joe here, so maybe my reasoning on this isn't uber clear:

Thinking of similarities or differences between Shannan's case and the G4, i don't recall that any personal belongings of the G4 were located, whereas in SG's case, they have been. IF SG did NOT have her purse and cell phone with her at Coletti's, then they had to have been in the possession of one of the last people to see her alive. If so, then either SG is not a victim of the SK or one of those people is the SK. IOW, if SG had the misfortune of running into the SK in Oak Beach, the SK would not have had access to her belongings that were held by some individual she encountered before her disappearance.

Clear as mud?
 
I was thinking we could probably get a better idea of who the SK is by looking for some type of connection between the Manorville location and OP. Both areas seem to be great places to leave a body especially if you wanted to relive the crimes. Here are some things that crossed my mind...I am not familiar with the area so I basically just used a map and logic. I read an article in the Lond Island Press that said there isn't much of a reason to be in that area of Manorville.

Golf- The Manorville area is surrounded by golf courses. Golf/Country clubs are usually a sign of wealth that are used primarily in the summer when the SK operates. I could see the SK spending his summers at the beach playing golf. I wonder if LE has ever looked into Oak Beach area residents that are also members of one of the golf clubs near the Manorville dump site.

Airport- It is my understanding that the Gilgo beach area is very wealthy and it's possible the SK could be a pilot and use the airport near the bodies. Check residents who have a pilot license?

Parks- I spent my summers in NJ working for the local parks cleaning up. I wonder if someone working for the Suffolk County Parks would be responsible for working in both areas.

Navy- I also see there is a large Naval Cemetery near the Manorville site. If our SK was ex military is it possible there could be some connection?

Just a few ideas
Reply With Quote
 
Am only on my second cup of joe here, so maybe my reasoning on this isn't uber clear:

Thinking of similarities or differences between Shannan's case and the G4, i don't recall that any personal belongings of the G4 were located, whereas in SG's case, they have been. IF SG did NOT have her purse and cell phone with her at Coletti's, then they had to have been in the possession of one of the last people to see her alive. If so, then either SG is not a victim of the SK or one of those people is the SK. IOW, if SG had the misfortune of running into the SK in Oak Beach, the SK would not have had access to her belongings that were held by some individual she encountered before her disappearance.

Clear as mud?

Errr ... if I understand that right, someone is the SK or is not the SK because he can't be both at the same time. Or did I get that entirely wrong now?
 
I was thinking we could probably get a better idea of who the SK is by looking for some type of connection between the Manorville location and OP. Both areas seem to be great places to leave a body especially if you wanted to relive the crimes. Here are some things that crossed my mind...I am not familiar with the area so I basically just used a map and logic. I read an article in the Lond Island Press that said there isn't much of a reason to be in that area of Manorville.

Golf- The Manorville area is surrounded by golf courses. Golf/Country clubs are usually a sign of wealth that are used primarily in the summer when the SK operates. I could see the SK spending his summers at the beach playing golf. I wonder if LE has ever looked into Oak Beach area residents that are also members of one of the golf clubs near the Manorville dump site.

Airport- It is my understanding that the Gilgo beach area is very wealthy and it's possible the SK could be a pilot and use the airport near the bodies. Check residents who have a pilot license?

Parks- I spent my summers in NJ working for the local parks cleaning up. I wonder if someone working for the Suffolk County Parks would be responsible for working in both areas.

Navy- I also see there is a large Naval Cemetery near the Manorville site. If our SK was ex military is it possible there could be some connection?

Just a few ideas
Reply With Quote

I am as of yet not convinced, we talk here about only one SK. Dropping bodies in one piece wrapped in burlap is one signature, dismembering with a tendency of staging of pieces is an entirely different one. Admittedly, there were some very rare cases in which the killer dismembered bodies to spread them out over several of his private graveyards, but that would be keeper behavior and I know only one case from 1887/88 which came along with staging behavior. So my bet, we have two. You also have to see, that the Manorville victims were killed years earlier as far as I understand the press reports. And while the GB4 were placed neatly along that road, the Manorville victims were spread out all over the place. The only thing, they have in common is, that both used the remote parts of LI as dump site (Manorville not exclusively).
 
Errr ... if I understand that right, someone is the SK or is not the SK because he can't be both at the same time. Or did I get that entirely wrong now?

Peter, my summary wasn't very clear i suppose. Let's try it this way:

If Shannan did NOT have her belongings with her when last seen at Colletti’s or on Anchor Way, then homicide seems to be the only explanation, and the killer would be one of the following:

1) MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) killed her and dumped her belongings, BUT it was a one-time kill and they are not a serial killer, therefore not related to the G4 (possible)

2) MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) killed her and dumped her belongings, AND that person also happens to be the serial killer responsible for the G4 (possible)

3) MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) killed her and dumped her belongings, AND one or more of them happens to be part of an organized crime ring who may or may not be related to the G4 (possible)


4) a killer or serial killer totally independent of the above individuals and responsible for the G4 was roaming OB and either stalked her or happened upon her, killed her, and dumped her in the marsh, BUT somehow managed to acquire her belongings after the fact and dump them there also (highly unlikely)

5) a killer or serial killer totally independent of the above individuals and responsible for the G4 was roaming OB and either stalked her or happened upon her, killed her, dumped her body in the marsh, and coincidentally MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) had her belongings and happened to toss the items into the same marsh as the killer (highly unlikely)

IF however, Shannan DID have her belongings with her when last seen:

1) misadventure/accidental death (highly probable)

I hope i'm not confusing the issue further :)
 
I did read last night in an article that Shannan had changed into boots in MP car on her way to LI. I will try and locate that article/quote, so this makes me think she indeed have a bag of extra clothes with her. It would make sense that it was left in the car while she went to work.
Then I would assume MP had dumped these things. Now are they the same items that were recovered?

edit to add here:
I am not even sure I am posting this in the right thread I lost track after an extremely long day yesterday and not enough coffee this morning! :)
http://www.newsday.com/news/breaking/gilbert-vanishing-reaches-one-year-mark-1.2849214
At the corner of 32nd Street and 6th Avenue, she pulled out her cellphone and called her driver, Michael Pak, he said. It was 10:02 p.m.

Her mood was calm, Pak would later recall. "She sounded normal," he said. "Everything was OK. Inside Pak's SUV, Gilbert changed into dark leather boots and posted an ad on Craigslist, he said. By midnight, she was at her first appointment, a man in a nearby apartment, Pak said.
 
Peter, my summary wasn't very clear i suppose. Let's try it this way:

If Shannan did NOT have her belongings with her when last seen at Colletti’s or on Anchor Way, then homicide seems to be the only explanation, and the killer would be one of the following:

1) MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) killed her and dumped her belongings, BUT it was a one-time kill and they are not a serial killer, therefore not related to the G4 (possible)

2) MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) killed her and dumped her belongings, AND that person also happens to be the serial killer responsible for the G4 (possible)

3) MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) killed her and dumped her belongings, AND one or more of them happens to be part of an organized crime ring who may or may not be related to the G4 (possible)


4) a killer or serial killer totally independent of the above individuals and responsible for the G4 was roaming OB and either stalked her or happened upon her, killed her, and dumped her in the marsh, BUT somehow managed to acquire her belongings after the fact and dump them there also (highly unlikely)

5) a killer or serial killer totally independent of the above individuals and responsible for the G4 was roaming OB and either stalked her or happened upon her, killed her, dumped her body in the marsh, and coincidentally MP/JB/ GC/ CPH/drifter (?) had her belongings and happened to toss the items into the same marsh as the killer (highly unlikely)

IF however, Shannan DID have her belongings with her when last seen:

1) misadventure/accidental death (highly probable)

I hope i'm not confusing the issue further :)

Got it! Seems, I was a little low on coffee too. The reports from last week were about her purse or something containing her ID, that was found not far from where the remains were found. Coletti told more about how she looked (scared) than what she carried with her.
 
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