AMBER ALERT TN - Summer Moon-Utah Wells, 5, Rogersville, 15 Jun 2021 #31

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sk716 said:
Missing child 101 is to search the home/location child went missing from first.
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I am sure this was searched by LE and the family. But their home is not well organized. A mundane item might have gone missing with SW (a blanket or bag they weren't really using, for example) and the family might not have even missed it. LE wouldn't know this item was supposed to be there.

CB said LE searched even small places many times. But, unless something is obviously missing so they would realize to ask about it, that wouldn't really turn up what I am talking about. They may have asked about items they knew existed (the "kindergarten outfit", for example), but that's all they could do.

As for the family, they're freaked out about missing a child, they might not even think about some random item.

I am thinking an opportunistic abductor could have used something from their house to aid in getting SW away.
 
2.curious said:
View from CH's Trailer:
Summer Wells : View from Grandma Candy Trailer : FindSummerWells.com - YouTube

View From Grandma Candy Trailer (findsummerwells.com)
This is the view from the trailer towards the house and surrounding land.
Candy


Thank You Everyone who is helping restore our Family and find our Daughter Summer Moon-Utah Wells.


Love and Prayers, DonCandus
Click to expand...

This was actually incredibly helpful. I didn't have the sound on so I don't know if there was any (I never turn the sound on), but I was very interested in the line of sight. I'd like to get a good look at the line of sight from the street up the dog trail and driveway if anyone is commenting somewhere the Wells' can see. As far as I know someone is popping in here from time to time. Can you see the yard from the street in any direction?

It looks to me like Grandma might have been able to see Summer going from the basement door to the dog trail about halfway down, you can just make out the top of the big box by the dog trail. But I think it would have just been the top of her head and very brief. An adult walking that way would be visible, but a child could easily pass unseen from this vantage point.

ScreenHunter 1159.png
Screencap from here:
 
December said:
I am sure this was searched by LE and the family. But their home is not well organized. A mundane item might have gone missing with SW (a blanket or bag they weren't really using, for example) and the family might not have even missed it. LE wouldn't know this item was supposed to be there.

CB said LE searched even small places many times. But, unless something is obviously missing so they would realize to ask about it, that wouldn't really turn up what I am talking about. They may have asked about items they knew existed (the "kindergarten outfit", for example), but that's all they could do.

As for the family, they're freaked out about missing a child, they might not even think about some random item.

I am thinking an opportunistic abductor could have used something from their house to aid in getting SW away.
Click to expand...

I tried to get my mind to opportunistic, but I haven’t been able to get there. I lean much more towards a hunter abductor rather than a troll; key is assuming Summer did not wander off. What leans you to opportunistic, I would value hearing your thoughts?

In my efforts to make it fit, I could only come up with one window of opportunity for a trolling abduction, but it is still very tight and extremely risky. It would be the window of time when CBW went into her mothers camper IMO. My hang up is would an opportunistic (trolling) predator that happened to be in the woods wait out for this window of opportunity? The risk is very high as it is not known how quick CBW may exit the camper. This risk would seem to hold back a trolling or opportunistic predator. IMO
 
sk716 said:
It's very unlikely to have been a "planned" abduction by your definition, pretty much for the reasons you listed. It's just a stupid time and place to snatch a kid anybody could be watching, there are kids everywhere (boys multiply exponentially).

I believe a preferential offender spotted Summer while they were out running the errands. It could have been at any of their stops but most likely while Summer and H were in the car at the grocery store or while they were swimming. She was wearing pink, so despite her short cropped hair, she was easily identifiable as a girl. He could have tailed them Ben Hill Rd, stalking Summer and checking the property for weak spots. Summer wandering out, or possibly being lured out, would have just been a lucky break for the abductor. Even a kidnapper doesn't look a gift horse in the mouth.
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There's a good chance it was exactly that scenario.
 
Tiff23fr said:
I tried to get my mind to opportunistic, but I haven’t been able to get there. I lean much more towards a hunter abductor rather than a troll; key is assuming Summer did not wander off. What leans you to opportunistic, I would value hearing your thoughts?

In my efforts to make it fit, I could only come up with one window of opportunity for a trolling abduction, but it is still very tight and extremely risky. It would be the window of time when CBW went into her mothers camper IMO. My hang up is would an opportunistic (trolling) predator that happened to be in the woods wait out for this window of opportunity? The risk is very high as it is not known how quick CBW may exit the camper. This risk would seem to hold back a trolling or opportunistic predator. IMO
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Tiff, I apologize for jumping in here (I know this question wasn't directed to me) but I have struggled with the same issues in trying to make the timeline work for different types of possible abduction and have wondered...
what if it were to be a combination of both?

A trolling abductor might have familiarized themselves with certain of the behaviors/actions/styles of the Wells family, and then hoped to capitalize on a window of opportunity based on those patterns using impulse as catapult.

I have long been perplexed by CW possibly watching TV with the boys/doing laundry/etc. Where was Summer during this time? When WAS this time? Was it common for CW to visit with her mom in her moms camper for a certain amount of time, i.e- 5 min, 10 min, 15 min without children present? Was it common for CW to begin doing chores upon returning home from being out, and for Summer to be bored and go outside by herself- even if only to stray as far as her swing? Was it common for Summer to first go downstairs, was it common for her to exit through the basement door? What patterns might a trolling predator have observed in the past, then capitalized on when passing by/thru that day? Most people are relatively predictable in their patterns of lifestyle. Perhaps a predator was aware that a very small window of opportunity might present? Perhaps that day they transitioned from trolling to opportunistic in one fell stroke of luck?
 
Oriah said:
Tiff, I apologize for jumping in here (I know this question wasn't directed to me) but I have struggled with the same issues in trying to make the timeline work for different types of possible abduction and have wondered...
what if it were to be a combination of both?

A trolling abductor might have familiarized themselves with certain of the behaviors/actions/styles of the Wells family, and then hoped to capitalize on a window of opportunity based on those patterns using impulse as catapult.

I have long been perplexed by CW possibly watching TV with the boys/doing laundry/etc. Where was Summer during this time? When WAS this time? Was it common for CW to visit with her mom in her moms camper for a certain amount of time, i.e- 5 min, 10 min, 15 min without children present? Was it common for CW to begin doing chores upon returning home from being out, and for Summer to be bored and go outside by herself- even if only to stray as far as her swing? Was it common for Summer to first go downstairs, was it common for her to exit through the basement door? What patterns might a trolling predator have observed in the past, then capitalized on when passing by/thru that day? Most people are relatively predictable in their patterns of lifestyle. Perhaps a predator was aware that a very small window of opportunity might present? Perhaps that day they transitioned from trolling to opportunistic in one fell stroke of luck?
Click to expand...

Glad to have you jump in! I was merely jumping off the prior post with my thoughts and where I was getting stuck. These are great questions, I would hypothesize that many of these would be hard to answer. A trolling perpetrator could have observed a pattern of Summer going to the swing area to play. It would seem first, the trolling predator would need placed in the woods previously to even be aware of Summer up there and playing. So who would have been in the woods around the property in the first place to take notice of her and then return to watch and/or abduct her?

Since poachers tend to travel outside their home community, I don’t see this type of perpetrator fitting either given the location of the home.

The videos from the family of the property are helpful. They are helpful in seeing things from their perspective and angle. While they show it may be hard for them to see dog trail area, it can be more beneficial to come from the angle of the possible perp and his obstacles. CBW and her mother may not have been able to see the perp, but the perp would have seen or heard them.
He would have been watching the surroundings. Getting up the dog trail or the driveway was a big risk. Now perp has to weigh out another level of risk getting from the trail to the basement or swing area without being seen and without being heard. He then has to time it just right to get her quietly back across the driveway and make no noise as he carries her going through branches etc. down the dog trail if it was the route taken. This is not even considering the added risk of are the boys going to come out or are they in the basement too? (If a troll, perp would know about the boys being home as well.)

JMO
 
Tiff23fr said:
Glad to have you jump in! I was merely jumping off the prior post with my thoughts and where I was getting stuck. These are great questions, I would hypothesize that many of these would be hard to answer. A trolling perpetrator could have observed a pattern of Summer going to the swing area to play. It would seem first, the trolling predator would need placed in the woods previously to even be aware of Summer up there and playing. So who would have been in the woods around the property in the first place to take notice of her and then return to watch and/or abduct her?

Since poachers tend to travel outside their home community, I don’t see this type of perpetrator fitting either given the location of the home.

The videos from the family of the property are helpful. They are helpful in seeing things from their perspective and angle. While they show it may be hard for them to see dog trail area, it can be more beneficial to come from the angle of the possible perp and his obstacles. CBW and her mother may not have been able to see the perp, but the perp would have seen or heard them.
He would have been watching the surroundings. Getting up the dog trail or the driveway was a big risk. Now perp has to weigh out another level of risk getting from the trail to the basement or swing area without being seen and without being heard. He then has to time it just right to get her quietly back across the driveway and make no noise as he carries her going through branches etc. down the dog trail if it was the route taken. This is not even considering the added risk of are the boys going to come out or are they in the basement too? (If a troll, perp would know about the boys being home as well.)

JMO
Click to expand...
There's also the risk of the dogs alerting to someone unfamiliar.
 
One more risk: the length of time the red truck (if it was part of this) sat at the end of the driveway (or wherever exactly it was noted)

This time goes against the clock for someone hanging out waiting on that right moment to make the move.
 
Tiff23fr said:
Glad to have you jump in! I was merely jumping off the prior post with my thoughts and where I was getting stuck. These are great questions, I would hypothesize that many of these would be hard to answer. A trolling perpetrator could have observed a pattern of Summer going to the swing area to play. It would seem first, the trolling predator would need placed in the woods previously to even be aware of Summer up there and playing. So who would have been in the woods around the property in the first place to take notice of her and then return to watch and/or abduct her?

Since poachers tend to travel outside their home community, I don’t see this type of perpetrator fitting either given the location of the home.

The videos from the family of the property are helpful. They are helpful in seeing things from their perspective and angle. While they show it may be hard for them to see dog trail area, it can be more beneficial to come from the angle of the possible perp and his obstacles. CBW and her mother may not have been able to see the perp, but the perp would have seen or heard them.
He would have been watching the surroundings. Getting up the dog trail or the driveway was a big risk. Now perp has to weigh out another level of risk getting from the trail to the basement or swing area without being seen and without being heard. He then has to time it just right to get her quietly back across the driveway and make no noise as he carries her going through branches etc. down the dog trail if it was the route taken. This is not even considering the added risk of are the boys going to come out or are they in the basement too? (If a troll, perp would know about the boys being home as well.)

JMO
Click to expand...

I agree that the video from the family is helpful. I wish we also had a comparison video from the middle of June, when foliage and surrounding terrain was fully in bloom. Forested and heavily foliaged areas tend to be sound buffers when in bloom, as opposed to autumn and winter when sounds become more magnified. Mountainous (and even simply 'hilly') terrain also lends itself to unique sound travel and echo. The Wells' property may have been subject to this combo of 'camouflage' so to speak during June, making it more likely to disguise the presence of someone in the woods or even on the driveway imo. The same conditions that made search efforts for Summer so difficult may also have conversely made efforts to conceal easier for a predator- and made for a rapid disappearing with Summer, possible. Not saying this is my firm belief, just fleshing out the possibilities.

Since Summer's disappearance, I have often thought of some friends I have who have a child close in age to Summer. One parent is a stay at home parent, while the other works outside the home. Their home is just barely visible from the road, and at the end of a long driveway on a dead end semi-rural road. Nearly every afternoon, the stay at home parent takes their dogs for a walk, often leaving their child very briefly home alone. 99 percent of the time, their child stays inside as instructed, watching tv or coloring/playing with toys until parent returns from walk.
The other 1 percent of the time...their child opens the back door into the yard and sometimes runs out to do some child-type thing, like pick a flower to trace or drag a stuffed animal out to 'play in the sun' or turn on the hose to see if it works. I know this because parent has told me.
How easy would it be, for a predator to simply note this pattern...and then for one day to notice parent out with dogs and hope that day might be the 1 percent? To then act, when that one day IS the 1 percent?

While the terrain surrounding the Wells' home isolates them in many ways, it also provides cover for routines of another sort- such as stalking, hunting, illegal activities, and just simply walking about. All of these things concern me about Summers case. :(
 
Oriah said:
I agree that the video from the family is helpful. I wish we also had a comparison video from the middle of June, when foliage and surrounding terrain was fully in bloom. Forested and heavily foliaged areas tend to be sound buffers when in bloom, as opposed to autumn and winter when sounds become more magnified. Mountainous (and even simply 'hilly') terrain also lends itself to unique sound travel and echo. The Wells' property may have been subject to this combo of 'camouflage' so to speak during June, making it more likely to disguise the presence of someone in the woods or even on the driveway imo. The same conditions that made search efforts for Summer so difficult may also have conversely made efforts to conceal easier for a predator- and made for a rapid disappearing with Summer, possible. Not saying this is my firm belief, just fleshing out the possibilities.

Since Summer's disappearance, I have often thought of some friends I have who have a child close in age to Summer. One parent is a stay at home parent, while the other works outside the home. Their home is just barely visible from the road, and at the end of a long driveway on a dead end semi-rural road. Nearly every afternoon, the stay at home parent takes their dogs for a walk, often leaving their child very briefly home alone. 99 percent of the time, their child stays inside as instructed, watching tv or coloring/playing with toys until parent returns from walk.
The other 1 percent of the time...their child opens the back door into the yard and sometimes runs out to do some child-type thing, like pick a flower to trace or drag a stuffed animal out to 'play in the sun' or turn on the hose to see if it works. I know this because parent has told me.
How easy would it be, for a predator to simply note this pattern...and then for one day to notice parent out with dogs and hope that day might be the 1 percent? To then act, when that one day IS the 1 percent?

While the terrain surrounding the Wells' home isolates them in many ways, it also provides cover for routines of another sort- such as stalking, hunting, illegal activities, and just simply walking about. All of these things concern me about Summers case. :(
Click to expand...

Great points. The predator needs placed there first to be aware the child is there and then note the patterns. I strongly believe IMO if Summer did not wander off, the individual behind her disappearance has been on that property previously.
 
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