Hi everyone. I've been following your fascinating discussions for a while now, and I hope it's OK for me to join in.
I don't have anything of earth-shattering originality to share, most of the things that have occurred to me have been raised by you guys, but here's a few of my thoughts.
I don't believe OP. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt after the BH and before the trial, but the more evidence that comes to light, the more convinced I am of his guilt.
1) According to him he'd just spoken to Reeva when he heard the "intruder" so he knew she was awake. In order for him to do what he did....creep down a dark corridor clutching his gun....he would have to be in genuine and real fear for his life, so this is one of the scariest moments he has ever faced. His heart would have been pounding, his mouth dry, his hands shaking - and yet he says absolutely nothing to his wide awake girlfriend. No whispered contact to reassure himself he wasn't alone - no instruction to her to hide herself, no shushing to make sure she doesn't give the game away by saying loudly, "Oi, where are you going with that gun, Oscar?". He's not worried that she'll follow him. Nope. None of that. Defies all logic.
2) He screams at her twice to call the police - before and after the shooting. So he considers them the appropriate people to call at times of crisis. So does he call them when he realises the extent of the crisis? No. He calls the estate manager. This indicates that his panic is chiefly about the trouble he's in rather than help for Reeva. If this had been a total accident, I think he still would have worried about that, but it would have come second and he'd have been mostly concerned about getting help for her. I think this reveals his guilt more than anything else.
3) Why does not seeing Reeva in bed immediately lead to the conclusion that it was her he shot? He'd just blasted out the toilet door - did he expect her to be meekly sitting in bed? She'd have hidden or tried to run away, but Oscar doesn't check this out he just sees she's not in bed and it "dawns" on him. She WOULDN'T have been sitting in bed through all that - so why did he think she would be?
4) Fight or flight is a biological, instinctive reaction to danger - there's little thought involved and no one chooses which one to go with. It's a split second thing where your compelled into the action that is most likely to save your life. Flight is always the first instinct - people in true danger run if they possibly can, without stopping to consider the matter. Oscar's escape was a few feet to his left via the bedroom door. He and Reeva could have been through it in moments. OK, the door was locked but unless the key was inaccessible (and why would it be?) it would have been an extra moment to unlock it.
Oscar CHOSE to go into the bathroom. Only cornered people or angry people do this. Oscar was not cornered...so he chose his course of action. Panic did not propel him down that corridor, anger did.
Sorry - for a first post this is going on a bit. Nearly there.......!
Lastly - the bat sounds. Hmmmmm. I think this is a big, big red herring because I am not convinced that Dr Stipp was close enough to hear a bat smack a door. This is the kind of sound that only people in the same house or possibly very near neighbours might hear, but I don't think anyone at a distance would - and if they did, it would be very faint.
Gun shots are loud because of the amount of energy they produce, which is also what makes them so deadly. OP wielding a cricket bat could not produce even a fraction of the energy a gun could, so the sounds would not be anything like equal in sound. I've seen that YT video, btw, and I would really like to know what a physicist thinks about that. But I, personally, don't buy it.
So, I'm wondering if all the bangs that people heard were actually gunshots and, while the door bashing took place, no one heard that.
Pure supposition on my part, but maybe there were more shots than just the four through the door. Maybe OP was standing by the open bathroom window, arguing with Reeva through the door. Maybe he tells her to come out or he'll shoot the lock off (after a few bashes with the bat), and shoots a couple through the window to show he's serious. Her screams intensify, but she doesn't come out. So he tells her to get away from the door because he's going to shoot off the lock, and does. But she hadn't moved so got hit.
I don't think he planned to kill her, but I am certain he knew she was behind the door. His version makes absolutely no sense,and as Judge Judy often says, if something doesn't make sense, it's usually not true!
Sorry.....I shall shut up now. Thanks for reading my rambles (if you have!)