Tropical Storm Andrea

[raine1212]

Tropical storm andrea forecast/advisory number 8
nws national hurricane center miami fl al012013
1500 utc fri jun 07 2013

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The tropical storm warning has been discontinued south of south
santee river south carolina.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* south santee river south carolina to cape charles light virginia
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* lower chesapeake bay south of new point comfort

tropical storm center located near 34.4n 79.5w at 07/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 35 degrees at 24 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 996 mb
max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt.......130ne 140se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas..120ne 120se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 34.4n 79.5w at 07/1500z
at 07/1200z center was located near 33.5n 80.2w

forecast valid 08/0000z 37.5n 76.2w...post-tropical
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...120ne 180se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 41.8n 70.8w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...120ne 180se 150sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 45.3n 63.3w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt...150ne 200se 150sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 46.8n 54.4w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt...150ne 200se 150sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 10/1200z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 34.4n 79.5w

next advisory at 07/2100z

 

[raine1212]

Bulletin
tropical storm andrea advisory number 8
nws national hurricane center miami fl al012013
1100 am edt fri jun 07 2013

...andrea about to move into north carolina...


Summary of 1100 am edt...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...34.4n 79.5w
about 50 mi...85 km sw of fayetteville north carolina
about 90 mi...150 km w of wilmington north carolina
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...ne or 35 degrees at 28 mph...44 km/h
minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

The tropical storm warning has been discontinued south of south
santee river south carolina.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* south santee river south carolina to cape charles light virginia
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* lower chesapeake bay south of new point comfort

for storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by
your local national weather service forecast office.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am edt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm andrea was
located near latitude 34.4 north...longitude 79.5 west. Andrea is
moving more quickly toward the northeast near 28 mph...44 km/h...
And this general motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through late saturday. A turn toward the east-northeast
should occur saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours...but andrea is expected to lose tropical characteristics
later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km
east of the center. A sustained wind of 46 mph...74 km/h...and a
gust of 53 mph...85 km/h was recently reported at the ocean crest
pier on oak island north carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...andrea is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches from central and eastern north carolina northeastward
along the eastern seaboard into coastal maine. Additional rain
totals of up to 2 inches are expected over portions of south
carolina through this morning which could bring storm total amounts
up to 6 inches across those areas.

Storm surge...the combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North carolina and extreme southeastern virginia...1 to 2 ft

the deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and
the tidal cycle...and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area...please see products issued by
your local national weather service office.

Wind...tropical storm conditions will continue to spread
northeastward along the u.s. East coast within the warning area
during the next 12 hours or so. Strong winds are possible elsewhere
along the coast from virginia to atlantic canada through early
sunday.

Tornadoes...a few tornadoes are possible over eastern portions of
north carolina and virginia today.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 pm edt.
Next complete advisory...500 pm edt.

$$

 

[raine1212]

Tropical storm andrea discussion number 8
nws national hurricane center miami fl al012013
1100 am edt fri jun 07 2013

andrea continues to lose tropical characteristics...but it is not
yet frontal and some convection is still forming near the center.
The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt...which is supported
by a recent sustained wind of 40 kt at the ocean crest pier on oak
island north carolina. The official intensity forecast is largely
unchanged from the previous advisory...and it is still assumed that
andrea will become post-tropical in about 12 hours. The global
model guidance suggests that a second area of low pressure will
form and become the dominant system near newfoundland...and andrea
should be absorbed by this low in about 72 hours.

Acceleration continues...and andrea has an initial motion of 035/24
kt. There is not much spread among the track guidance...however
the entire guidance envelope has shifted a little bit to the west
and northwest. The official forecast has also been shifted
westward...and this scenario keeps the center of andrea...and
potentially some of the stronger winds...closer to the u.s. East
coast during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Hazardous conditions from the delmarva peninsula northward to
new england will continue to be handled by local national weather
service warning products.

Forecast positions and max winds

init 07/1500z 34.4n 79.5w 40 kt 45 mph
12h 08/0000z 37.5n 76.2w 40 kt 45 mph...post-tropical
24h 08/1200z 41.8n 70.8w 40 kt 45 mph...post-trop/extratrop
36h 09/0000z 45.3n 63.3w 35 kt 40 mph...post-trop/extratrop
48h 09/1200z 46.8n 54.4w 35 kt 40 mph...post-trop/extratrop
72h 10/1200z...absorbed by another low