I cant tell you how many times, this case, has crossed my mind
this was one of the cases, that I feel lead me into law enforcement.
Over the years, I have ran this through my mind, and applied just about every theory I could , every scenario I could concoct, however Ive come to rely upon experience, when it comes to homicide cases, and in cases, like this barring any intentionally withheld evidence, for exclusionary reasons, the "profile" if you will of these individuals tends , for the most part to remain static
-25-32 years of age at the time of her killing
-Unmarried
-Lived or worked near the abduction or body dump site if employed, but familiar with the area
-Most likely unskilled, or semi-skilled labor if employed
-Lived alone , or with parents
-Loner, few friends
-Carried a knife on his person at the time
-Precipitating event prior to the abduction
-Most likely has arrest for prior violent crimes, possibly against children
- MO wont change much in future crimes, (or past)
-Was in the area where she was abducted for legitimate reason, (work etc) , meaning Amber most likely, was a victim of opportunity , and wasn't specifically selected because of any physical trait, other than being alone .
-She was most likely killed near where she was found (most often its within 200 feet), this does not account however for natural movement such as currents, tide flow etc.. so she could've been dumped upstream and floated to where she was found
-The motive for her abduction was sexual, with homicide secondary to avoid identification
-Most likely the killer has been interviewed, regarding the case, but has been overlooked for some reason (sometimes they are incarcerated for something else at the time, their name comes up for example Joseph Smith (Carlie Bruscia)
-Post offensive behavior would include, an unnatural excessive interest in the case, changes in appearance, increase, in use of intoxicants (alcohol or drugs), loss of sleep, changes in eating habits, restlessness, offender, may inexplicably re-locate once the pressure dies down, often items of the offenders clothing will inexplicably disappear , extensive cleaning of the offenders vehicle, more so than what is considered normal, the vehicle may have been sold, or in some cases destroyed .
Though the original investigation states, she was apparently held for 48 hours, this has recently been debated, as some investigators feel she may have been killed shortly after she was abducted, as is the case most often in these types of crimes.
There was no reported evidence of her being tortured (I.e. sadism) , there was evidence, of sexual assault just shy of actual intercourse, which is interesting, in that if she was indeed held captive, may signify some form of sexual dysfunction on part of the offender
The injures suffered state she sustained, 5 slash wounds, to her neck.
Mr Daubin, posts a very interesting , and tantalizing theory, in that an individual involved, with a local pedophile ring (whos name I cant recall ) may be responsible.
He also lists some very interesting evidence, to bolster his theory , he has certainly done his homework , such as a report of a young girls blood stained underwear being burned in said individuals back yard, (however this is hearsay, I don't believe any item was ever recovered) , a sudden move by the offender,to Arizona immediately after the disappearance, selling of his personal vehicle , and access to several unoccupied homes, in the area where Amber was abducted/Killed.
Though its certainly a possiblilty, for several reasons, I don't feel this is the individual responsible. That being said however, I would certainly keep this individual on a list of other possible crimes.
I feel you are looking for white male, age range, as stated above (25-32) a loner type , who lives, in the area, works in some unskilled capacity , the distance from where she was abducted to where she was found is less than 2 miles I believe . Her abduction was the result of some stressing event.. an argument, problems at work, or with his parents (I say his, because I think were all in agreement this was the work of a male). If she was indeed held somewhere, he would have to have his own place.
The nature of her death would result in a lot of potential evidence transfer, but its also very risky to take a child being featured on the NEWS out in public , alive at least not for very long. It would be safer for the offender, to kill his victim where she cant be heard, or seen , the problem is that we don't know where the murder site is, therefore we need to work backward, from where her body was recovered. From there we work backwards, to try to find where she was killed.
If the study done by the University of Washington's, findings, on spatial relationships between the murder site, and the body dump site (most often less than 200 feet) are accurate, in accordance with the FBI profile generated on the offender, then you have to assume, he most likely lived or lives, near the dump site.
Ive always felt , someone in the immediate area, either knows, or had strong suspicions about a certain individual, for whatever, reason, be it to protect someone, or out of denial
Police most likely know a name, but there's something that has been missed.
Though I feel this may have been his 1st murder, I don't rule out further violent crimes, including murder, by the same individual.
As for Mr. Daubins, findings, though I feel they are most likely not related to Ambers case , they certainly may be related, to other crimes
