Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #10

[poirotoupierrot]

Libby Squire also springs to mind. If she had not been seen getting into the perp's car (almost never happened was only *just* caught on CCTV and the car, because of that, had not then been followed by ANPR and public cameras to the riverbank) it would have been a different story.

If she had just washed up in the Humber weeks later, without the CCTV or DNA evidence (miraculous the abduction was caught on CCTV and the DNA evidence survived all those weeks in water), it would have been assumed she wandered to the river drunk and fell in or went in of her own accord. And we'd have a dangerous murderer still walking the streets.

Well I haven't been out walking on my own since Nicola disappeared. It was the same when Sarah Everard disappeared. I don't get why women can disappear in the middle of the day and things don't get solved in time. We have so much technology, so much tracking, but CCTV isn't maintained and attitudes don't change. I respect the police for their efforts, and I hate the media storm for the investigation and Nicola's family - it's way out of control. But I also hate that these things can happen when a woman is just out walking her dog.

 

[EvaP]

Excellently sleuthed philthesaddler. Thank you for this

My question is where is the fenced off part to RW as it looks all open

 

[poirotoupierrot]

I mean from the last sighting (assuming it's legit) to when the phone was found (assuming that's legit) is a very specific period of time. If whatever happened hadn't already occurred by the time the phone was found and she was no longer with her dog then when did it?

EDIT: I'd be curious of if they have sightings of the dog tied up.

Yeah I also agree about that. It could have been happening at the time, but away from the area where the phone was. I did make this point on a previous thread - all we know is she was separated from her dog and her phone. We don't really know When, or How. And we don't know, obviously what happened next, or how she apparently disappeared from the area without being seen by anyone or tracked on CCTV. If the CCTV stopped working recently, I think it's worth checking when and it might provide clues to possible planning - IF she was attacked. I'm still open to the idea she met someone unexpectedly and left the area (did someone take her dog, leave her searching and then take her? and then put the dog back? just a thought?). I'm afraid I've been working through all the nightmare scenarios and all the more banal ones too. It's also important to consider motives. Have there been any attacks in the area recently? I am aware of the woman who was grabbed at on the tow path, and an offender who lived locally - but he was recently imprisoned I think. What are other possible accident that could occur there? I just run out of possibilities. Because of the camp-sites and roads nearby, I feel luring her somewhere, possibly by someone she knew (or thought she knew?) and then some sort of exit, but I don't want to be too firm in hypothesis. It all seems so disrespectful but I'm so worried.

 

[Night Shift]

Paul Ansell - "100% convinced she is not in the river" "The partner of missing mother-of-two Nicola Bulley has said he is "100 per cent convinced" she did not fall into the river."

From this link posted on BBC news just now:

Nicola Bulley: We are going through hell, says partner Paul Ansell

 

[Allabouttrial]

I'm awfully glad I don't own a tatty red van and people were searching my number plates on the internet.

You sure you don't...? j/s

 

[Bluesleuth66]

IMO it is possible that this is a suicide story and the reason for searching initially in the River.


That is interesting. Presumably the automatic reflex of closing up the airway would be canceled out if the individual died. In which case IMO presumably water would enter the lungs.

Are you saying that drowning victims do not have water in their lungs when recovered?

I would say that if they do then they inhaled water (not deliberately) and this is what made them sink.

If someone gasped inwards involuntarily then a certain amount of water would get (forced) into the lungs. I guess the natural incursion of water after death when the air passages have relaxed and opened would contribute to the loss of buoyancy. I can't say I've tried it ! but its supposedly impossible to inhale underwater.

Just as an aside and a bit of useless information, you may have noticed the little hole at the tip of the cap of your biro/ballpoint. Because some people chew on the end of their pens if this cap was to accidentally get swallowed/inhaled, the reflex would stop it going down the airway and the hole is there (in theory) to allow air through and hence breathing.

Back to the point of the thread I find the whole thing quite perplexing. I'm damn sure all of the points raised and observed by the Websleuths Detective Agency have been considered by the police. We all hope for a good conclusion to this drama but at the very least some closure for family and friends, but it looks like it might drag on a bit.

 

[cottonweaver]

Yep - you and me and a few others the other day...it was fairly flimsy stuff to say she disappeared in 15 mins wasn't it? But I get that they can also be playing cat-and-mouse with a potential killer. Make them complacent, see what they do. Difficulty is, I worry if time was of the essence then and I'm not sure it will be now, I'm really sad to say. Just got to hope there's some possibility none of us have thought of, that Nicola is alive and well somewhere.

It will certainly be interesting to watch the fourth press conference and hear the Express's line confirmed by the police.
( Express says that police have now identified a 2 hour gap and that police have identified three blindspots now)

' Police are reportedly focusing on a critical two-hour gap.....' Police identify critical two hours after Nicola Bulley disappearance

No link given for the report referred to

 

[DazN]

Does anybody know whether the weir was there 45 years ago when Roger Jones went into the water upstream from the bench and was found much further downstream? That might answer the question of whether it is possible for a human to go over the weir, although water depth etc would obviously also have to be considered.

He went into a different tributary 5 miles away (Woodplumpton) that was in flood. There is no way of knowing where he entered the Wyre. It could easily have been downstream of the weir. JMO

 

[karakuchi]

Btw we have definitive confirmation here, that the CCTV black spot is the gate at the bridge,
where Nicola turned right onto the path.

"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623982445962878976

">February 10, 2023</a>

 

[lvbut]

It would be quite irresponsible of the police give credence to the abduction/ foul play theories in the absence of any evidence to support them, wouldn't it? Raising anxieties, increasing fears, making it more likely that vigilantes will take it upon themselves to identify potential perpetrators and subject them to goodness knows what (most people will be aware of times that members of forums such of reddit have endangered people and caused them immense upset with what turn out to be baseless accusations of involvement in serious crimes). Even if you are someone who just doesn't believe that Nicola entered the water in a tragic accident, surely you don't want the police to make statements that further stir up what is becoming an absolute social media circus?

Yes… but could you imagine the absolute outrage if they ruled out third party involvement and that ended up being what happened? IMO they wouldn’t rule anything out *specifically* because they can’t.

(edited for typo)

 

[jackal67]

It will certainly be interesting to watch the fourth press conference and hear the Express's line confirmed by the police.
( Express says that police have now identified a 2 hour gap and that police have identified three blindspots now)

' Police are reportedly focusing on a critical two-hour gap.....' Police identify critical two hours after Nicola Bulley disappearance

No link given for the report referred to

is there a 4th press conference due today

 

[MrsWatson]

Yep - you and me and a few others the other day...it was fairly flimsy stuff to say she disappeared in 15 mins wasn't it? But I get that they can also be playing cat-and-mouse with a potential killer. Make them complacent, see what they do. Difficulty is, I worry if time was of the essence then and I'm not sure it will be now, I'm really sad to say. Just got to hope there's some possibility none of us have thought of, that Nicola is alive and well somewhere.

BBM

Could you please site another example where police have expended such tremendous resources on a ruse?

 

[infinit]

He went into a different tributary 5 miles away (Woodplumpton) that was in flood. There is no way of knowing where he entered the Wyre. It could easily have been downstream of the weir. JMO

From the bridge that is referenced (assuming it's the one South of Woodplumpton - I can't see any others that fit), I can only track that to entering on the East of St Michael's before the weir. Though happy to be corrected.

 

[cottonweaver]

is there a 4th press conference due today

not that I'm aware of.
Sorry, I was just referring to next one, whenever it comes, as they seem quite regular)
( they've done 3 in 2 weeks, despite Underhill claiming they had no media strategy to keep case in the media. )

 

[horace4831]

I have several cameras (EUFY) and I could unplug one and dispose of it and unlikely anyone would ever know I had it. There is an app but data can only be accessed if camera is in possession. If, for instance, someone broke in and nicked the camera the data would be inaccessible even though I have live online streams and record to a memory card. It could provide me with images (rather than video) to my inbox but I'd have to have that set up.

I'm aware of this type and they probably work similarly to Google Nest cameras, web based or onboard (SD card) storage in which case I agree. However, typical multi-camera commercial systems such as the caravan park tend to use the type of system described for many reasons, mainly system stability, the comparative reliability of wired connections and where wifi wouldn't easily cover a large area.

 

[Davieson]

Well I haven't been out walking on my own since Nicola disappeared. It was the same when Sarah Everard disappeared. I don't get why women can disappear in the middle of the day and things don't get solved in time. We have so much technology, so much tracking, but CCTV isn't maintained and attitudes don't change. I respect the police for their efforts, and I hate the media storm for the investigation and Nicola's family - it's way out of control. But I also hate that these things can happen when a woman is just out walking her dog.

In rural areas most CCTV will be in private ownership and used to detect intruders, rather than monitor people in general.
Same with dash cameras which are there principally to record an accident/incident should you be unfortunate to be involved in one.
Fake cameras also exist, just to act as a deterrent, so its unreasonable to assume that everything will be caught on a camera somewhere

 

[russeverton]

BBM

Could you please site another example where police have expended such tremendous resources on a ruse?

What about the bloke in The canoe who they spent weeks looking for and was photographed in panama on holiday

BBM

Could you please site another example where police have expended such tremendous resources on a ruse?

 

[infinit]

Btw we have definitive confirmation here, that the CCTV black spot is the gate at the bridge,
where Nicola turned right onto the path.

"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623982445962878976

">February 10, 2023</a>

If you did manage to get her to the road I guess you'd need a vehicle or you go across through the gate to the next field, it looks pretty well concealed from the road via the hedge though there are houses that do overlook from the Paddington Ave area. I can't imagine she was marched up or down the road very far at all or surely she'd be seen? Where you'd go from that field I really don't know.

JMO.

 

[poirotoupierrot]

BBM

Could you please site another example where police have expended such tremendous resources on a ruse?

A ruse wasn't suggested - my point is that by witholding info about the case they can gain on a killer - who may be panicking. If there is one, I really hope they are.

 

[jojojaja]

I think something like this would be useful. Maybe not a mannequin, but a tracking package dropped in the river on day 1. Its movement can then be analysed after a few hours, 1 day etc to see how far and fast it moves in the current conditions, just to give an idea of how far something could travel in those first few hours and days. Maybe they can do already do this.

When did Nicola Bulley go missing? Full timeline as divers return to river

Mother-of-two Nicola Bulley, 45, went missing on 27 January while walking her dog in the village of St Michael’s on Wyre, Lancashire.

uk.yahoo.com

I'm new to the forum and unsure how things work but before reading some of this thread I saw the comments on this story from Peter Faulding who is supposed to be an expert
"

Monday, 6 February​

A team of private underwater search experts, who offered their services free of charge, joined the police operation to find Bulley.

But after searching three or four miles of the river on Monday, Peter Faulding, head of Specialist Group International (SGI), cast doubt on the police theory that she had fallen into the river.

He told TalkTV: “I personally don’t think she’s in the river, that’s just my gut instinct at this point.”

He said the river had not been moving fast and that when someone drowns "they generally go down where they are".
He added: "We normally find them within five to 10m of where they went down - even after a few days.

"This is the most baffling case I've ever worked on." "

It's stated she was a string swimmer and the river was slow moving on the day she vanished meaning that had she drowned she would have stayed put.

It also states in the piece that the family don't believe she went into the water and that there is no proof she did go in and her sister stated it's just a theory by the police that she went in the water and there is no proof she did so keep an open mind. The police also state they don't rule out that she may have driven off with someone.

I am sure the police would have informed the family if they had any proof or good reason to think that Nicola Bulley fell in the water. It seems more a case of ruling things out and seeing what's left as possibilities as far as the police are concerned.

Sorry if I'm not entering things properly.

I know nothing, put forward no conjecture, I just hope she is found soon and have sympathy for the family and whatever hell they are going through.