Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #2

[annpats]

Drowning is possible even in low water levels - particularly in cold water with additional cold water shock and gasping.

Correct, but the chances of her ending up in the water from the bench seem low.
The access to the river isn't a straight drop either, it's a rolling hill down to the water covered with grasses and shrubbery and some trees., that would've slowed her.

To even reach the river from the bench she'd have to be rolling on the floor, fast and hard and in that direction. It's possible but unlikely that happened. Also, no evidence in the riverbank of someone going down the hill...little twigs would be broken, there would be marks.

And if she was attacked and dragged down the embankment and in, Lancashire Police have said there is no evidence of that and no-one else is likely involved.

But an open mind must be kept.

I think the owner of the empty house and also people at the caravan parks needs to be questioned a bit more.
Who lives at a caravan park unfreezing cold January? Are these holiday places or permanent homes?

Was she attacked and/or enticed there?

Whatever happened it must've been quick to not take her phone.

 

[CuriousObserver1]

So, if we table the 'going into the water' (for whatever reason) theory for a moment. What are peoples other theories or scenarios as to where she's got to for a week plus, who else is involved (hypothetically) and if on her own accord, why and how did she manage it?

If she did fall or get into a deep part of the river, and I think I read it was a ‘tidal’ river so I assume opens into the sea, then Libby Squires body was found 7 weeks later (Snippet from Daily Mail : “Her [Libby’s] body was found in the Humber Estuary seven weeks after she vanished following the night out in Hull. “

 

[San111]

The stretch of slope below the bench looks to be relatively gradual initially, then to drop away more steeply immediately before the water, with a drop of around 1-2 metres. If the water is as shallow as it appears, I wonder if she may have gone in head first and hit her head on the bottom, knocking herself out. If conscious it does seem likely she'd have been able to get out relatively easily, even considering the cold water, unless she was badly injured.

It would seem pretty far fetched to think you could fall in such a way you would knock yourself out given the water would absorb some impact and the presumably soft bottom (of course could also be a rock). That said whatever happened seems far fetched from what we know

 

[BDL1960]

I am struggling with a couple of things

While I agree it is technically possible to drown in there, it's not very likely for a healthy middle aged woman.

If it's misadventure, and she went in the water, you'd expect she would have been found close by

If she were attacked, where is she? I am struggling with the idea she is removed from the locality - not so easy!

In every case, we seem to be dealing with some kind of low probability event, as the obvious things are being eliminated.

You have to wonder if she left under her own power, but that seems unusual with the dog and the phone.

This is a very unusual case. If the media reporting is correct she booked a spa session on the morning of her disappearance to go with her sister Louise in a few days time. This suggests an optimistic forward looking frame of mind.
There is nothing that gives me any suspicion of family involvement at this time.
The most likely explanation is a tragic accident but a third party, albeit unlikely, cannot be ruled out.

 

[todders]

I’m thinking the previous nights meeting in Harding may have significance. <modsnip - not victim friendly> It is a coincidence this happened the very evening before she went missing.

If there was foul play then everything found at the bench may have been carefully placed there .. away from any crime scene further along. She obviously went for her usual walk but as somebody else mentioned, her usual timings meant that she started out at 8.45.
The dog may have been deliberately set loose by any perpetrator but the dog will naturally have hung around the owner or the owners belongings. This tells me that NB may have been taken by car/ van. Just my thoughts though… I have 2 spaniels and this case hits home

I mentioned this yesterday and i agree it could be of great significance as they were possibly the last people/person to speak to her apart from her family. IMO

 

[Sara11272]

I also wonder about the

I’m thinking the previous nights meeting in Harding may have significance. <modsnip - not victim friendly> It is a coincidence this happened the very evening before she went missing.

If there was foul play then everything found at the bench may have been carefully placed there .. away from any crime scene further along. She obviously went for her usual walk but as somebody else mentioned, her usual timings meant that she started out at 8.45.
The dog may have been deliberately set loose by any perpetrator but the dog will naturally have hung around the owner or the owners belongings. This tells me that NB may have been taken by car/ van. Just my thoughts though… I have 2 spaniels and this case hits home

I also wondered about the meeting. IIRC, her mother was quoted as saying something about ‘she was happy to have her mortgage sorted’ - was this a mortgage she was selling as part of her job, or ‘her’ mortgage? - her mother’s words suggest the latter but this may be sloppy reporting or just a turn of phrase.

May not be important, but would put a different spin on the purpose of the meeting, potentially.

ETA to add link to mother’s quote: Devastated parents promise to never stop looking for mum-of-two who vanished

“She was very upbeat about getting her mortgage sorted”

 

[Cicane]

I’m thinking the previous nights meeting in Harding may have significance. <modsnip - not victim friendly> It is a coincidence this happened the very evening before she went missing.

If there was foul play then everything found at the bench may have been carefully placed there .. away from any crime scene further along. She obviously went for her usual walk but as somebody else mentioned, her usual timings meant that she started out at 8.45.
The dog may have been deliberately set loose by any perpetrator but the dog will naturally have hung around the owner or the owners belongings. This tells me that NB may have been taken by car/ van. Just my thoughts though… I have 2 spaniels and this case hits home

I suppose if it was someone she knew there wouldn’t have been anything suspicious to be seen… JMO

 

[Villa1]

My thoughts exactly re the phone. IMO you would instinctively grab it and put it in your pocket, as an instinctive reflex move. I've definitely been in scenarios where something unexpected has alerted my attention while I was in my phone, but my first course of action is always to put my phone in my pocket/bag. One thing I wondered this morning was did NB potentially put her phone down on the bench while listening to said meeting call? Then again, I'm not massively convinced was sat on the bench with her phone. I'm tending towards a previous poster's theory that someone came up behind her while she was walking and/or definitely the above poster's theory that NB may have dropped her phone out of shock if someone caught her unaware and prompted her to suddenly turn around. Hence why I'm keen to know what state/condition the phone was found in.

I was mulling the phone thing over while I was walking my dogs this morning and waffling on to my husband about things I do when I'm on my own walking . As a rule my phone would be in my pocket while I'm listening to a podcast , as I know if I try to walk and fiddle with the phone I may well end up face down due to holes in the ground , tree roots , slippy mud and so on . It crossed my mine there was one reason my phone may come out and its when I feel uncomfortable in the surroundings , sorry to say this and don't mean to offend but a lone man , no dog coming towards you or behind can make you feel vulnerable when your not near people. So trying to give the impression I'm in a phone call , just to say hey I'm not alone here .
I also think that if it was a pure accident of her just falling in the river ,like she tripped over the dog or anything else , I feel her phone her would be in the with her in the water .
Of course all MOO and thoughts .

 

[Kitaro]

There are 5 potential scenarios here IMO:

1. Abduction
2. Foul Play
3. Accidental Death
<modsnip>
5. Runaway

Police seem to discount 2. <modsnip> 5 don't seem too likely. 1 or 3 seems most likely.
The dog being bone dry and distressed as reported (who knows if this is the truth?) is curious.

 

[Detectivehorseshoe]

If there was another person involved in this and it was foul play (just speculating) then I would have expected them to throw the phone into the river in an attempt to hide the evidence? Unless they tried and missed and it landed near the bench and someone placed it on the bench? Or it was too much of a rush? So many uncertainties with this case.

 

[mrjitty]

If the phone was found on the ground by the bench rather than on the bench, i find that hard to reconcile.

 

[Woodburnbay]

I just don’t understand the conflicting reports from the MSM outlets. How one can state the phone was found on the ground by others and then the other outlet states the woman saw it on the bench. Such disjointed reporting is not helping anyone.

its fairly typical of MSM and that's why I don't why MSM is given greater credibility over other sources of information.

 

[todders]

If there was another person involved in this and it was foul play (just speculating) then I would have expected them to throw the phone into the river in an attempt to hide the evidence? Unless they tried and missed and it landed near the bench and someone placed it on the bench? Or it was too much of a rush? So many uncertainties with this case.

Or if there was another party involved who was known to NB and knew her daily routine everything has been placed to try and indicate that it all was a possible accident and to make it look more plausible. IMO

 

[Woodburnbay]

I’m thinking the previous nights meeting in Harding may have significance. <modsnip - not victim friendly> It is a coincidence this happened the very evening before she went missing.

If there was foul play then everything found at the bench may have been carefully placed there .. away from any crime scene further along. She obviously went for her usual walk but as somebody else mentioned, her usual timings meant that she started out at 8.45.
The dog may have been deliberately set loose by any perpetrator but the dog will naturally have hung around the owner or the owners belongings. This tells me that NB may have been taken by car/ van. Just my thoughts though… I have 2 spaniels and this case hits home

Whilst a huge age difference this case has similar traits to Leah Croucher-Milton Keynes.
It is believed that she also met someone the night before her disappearance. She kept the knowledge of this person from her family.
She then went missing on her walk the following day.

 

[Woodburnbay]

If there was another person involved in this and it was foul play (just speculating) then I would have expected them to throw the phone into the river in an attempt to hide the evidence? Unless they tried and missed and it landed near the bench and someone placed it on the bench? Or it was too much of a rush? So many uncertainties with this case.

Unless of course there was no evidence that implicated that person.

 

[Taskforce88]

Or if there was another party involved who was known to NB and knew her daily routine everything has been placed to try and indicate that it all was a possible accident was plausible. IMO

And the sergeant saying that it was unlikely to be third party involvement play unless it was someone who knew her.

 

[Woodburnbay]

This is a very unusual case. If the media reporting is correct she booked a spa session on the morning of her disappearance to go with her sister Louise in a few days time. This suggests an optimistic forward looking frame of mind.
There is nothing that gives me any suspicion of family involvement at this time.
The most likely explanation is a tragic accident but a third party, albeit unlikely, cannot be ruled out.

It was her sister who booked the Spa. Her sister sent her details of the different treatments the night before she went missing and did not get a reply.

 

[Nell91]

Goodness, this is a head scratcher isn't it

 

[Kitaro]

The police should collect doorbell and home CCTV data from every house North of the location and use AI to stitch it together. If they can also get some specialists to determine the current of the Wyre they can pinpoint the locations to search rather than paddling around right by the areas her dog was found.

 

[Woodburnbay]

I’m thinking the previous nights meeting in Harding may have significance. <modsnip - not victim friendly> It is a coincidence this happened the very evening before she went missing.

If there was foul play then everything found at the bench may have been carefully placed there .. away from any crime scene further along. She obviously went for her usual walk but as somebody else mentioned, her usual timings meant that she started out at 8.45.
The dog may have been deliberately set loose by any perpetrator but the dog will naturally have hung around the owner or the owners belongings. This tells me that NB may have been taken by car/ van. Just my thoughts though… I have 2 spaniels and this case hits home

If dogs can't find you they will return to your belongings. For example if you lose a dog, leave an item of your clothing at the last spot you were together, the dog will return to that spot.

Was her dog out of eyesight when something happened to Nicola? when the dog returned, if it couldn't find her it is likely to stay next to her belongings assuming that she would return.