Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[cottonweaver]

If they’re not experts in drowning and they’re not pulling x number of bodies a year out of water, then the opinion of these “experienced experts” (sic) is somewhat theoretical.

His Majesty's Coast Guard,
Lancashire Fire Search Rescue ( the marine team ) ,
Lancaster area and Bowland Mountain Rescue,
RNLI
North West Underwater & marine unit

plus 'experienced experts' like this type of practical and academic researcher who spent years on a diving team- Body recovery from water study | College of Policing

Just a hunch that these organisations have pulled xxxxxx bodies out of water every year!

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

People who fall in rivers are frequently not found for sharing period of time. It can easily be 4+ weeks before a body is recovered and it can be significant distances away - 5+ miles.

A recent Edinburgh missing person was found 6 weeks and around 8 miles away.

I've mentioned this previously but a relative of mine (a young child) went into a UK river and was found in four days, seven miles away.

 

[supersleuth123]

Apologies I can't find post to credit, but upthread someone posted this excellent police article about research into finding bodies in water. One thing it mentions is buoyancy, and it says: generally, well-clothed bodies are more buoyant than less clothed (because of air pockets), and generally older people are more buoyant than younger people (and the author hypothesises this is down to decreased bone density). I further hypothesise that women will be slightly more buoyant than men, because they generally have lower bone mass and density.

Why is this relevant? NB was a mid-aged, woman, in lots of winter clothing. Based on the above, I think it's fair to assume that she would be on the more buoyant end of the spectrum had she unfortunately drowned in the water. If it's true, it should increase the likelihood she would have been found in the immediate aftermath (spotted from the river bank, from the air, etc.).

If it's not true, she would have probably sunk (IMO), not made it over the weir, and not moved far from the point of entry.
Both can't be true at the same time! So, again, furthers my doubt she was ever in the water.

 

[PS8800]

Its easy to remain emotionally detached somewhat to these cases while youre busy thinking of all the possibilities, logisitcs, calculations etc but this evening ive just feel a real low with the realisation that its very likely she did end up going into that water.
All I can say is I hope she fainted or had some medical issue prior to going in and she didnt suffer.
And I seriously hope that bench gets removed from that part of the river and it gets partial fencing along with any other treacherous parts on that walk to deter people somewhat from getting close. That bench is an open invitation to a hellish part of the river.
My thoughts are with the family and I pray they get the chance to put Nicola to rest if it is the case.

 

[abcd123]

Information to suggest Nicola entered the river
- Zero. Police have also confirmed that no useable data has been retrieved from the fitbit to suggest she entered.

Information to suggest Nicola DID NOT enter the river
- No trace of body
- No trace of any belongings/clothing found in or near river
- No trace of marks or tracks suggesting entry into river
- Dog was dry
- River level was below average and tide was at roughly lowest point of the month
- Tide was incoming at time of disappearance and for roughly the next 5 hours
- Helicopters and divers searched scene very quickly after dissapearance
- Leading expert with world class sonar found no trace
- Leading expert's boat was grounded just after weir
- Anything else I've likely missed


For the Police's main working hypothesis to still be that Nicola entered the river there must be a piece of information more significant than all the above combined that we don't know about. The fact that this was their opinion from pretty much the get go suggests this significant info was also readily available. In my mind it must be almost blatant


JMO

 

[Deleted member 320164]

It’s likely just because the police know when a human being disappears without a trace next to a body of water, it’s almost always because they went into the water. The fact that Nicola’s phone was found on a bench near the water, her dog was found in a distressed state near the water and CCTV footage seems to confirm she didn’t leave the area, would appear to reinforce this. It does not prove that she went into the water, so obviously other explanations cannot be completely ruled out at this stage. I don’t think the police have evidence they’re not sharing - they’re just using logic and precedent to establish an informed view.

Much of London and Paris are near the river, that doesn‘t mean that everyone who vanishes there goes into the river: so no it doesn’t follow that when people vanish near water they “almost always” went into it.

When anyone goes missing it’s more likely that they haven’t been abducted but some people have.

What is likely and what is true are not the same thing.

 

[Petrocelli]

Have there been any ground searches or has it just been water? What if Nicola has been right under their noses the entire time, have all areas of undergrowth been checked? If not then worry that the search has been focused so much on the water that Nicola may have been found by now if other areas had been checked.

Have they been looking for areas of disturbed ground, secluded spots etc… if alarm was not raised for over an hour then a perpetrator could have taken Nicola miles away, can’t help thinking that more attention should be focused on the ground now, especially as she hasn’t been found in the water. But then you hear of people being found in water months after they went missing so I suppose you can’t rule it completely out that she could be in the water.

I have never known a case to gather such media and public attention! I wonder why this specific case has almost the whole country on the edge of their seats? Is it a case of ‘missing white woman syndrome’? I believe the family have helped massively in getting Nicolas name out far and wide imo and media seem to really be running with this story.

At first I thought it was a terrible accident but now I’m not so sure atall and I can’t work out if it’s because there really is something more to Nicolas disappearance or has the public and media frenzy got to my head and persuaded me that this is not as simple as an accidental drowning… MOO

I think it gained a lot of attention initially because her picture fitted a certain type of crime that has been very high profile in the last few years.

 

[todders]

In this photo on Google maps from 4 years ago I can't see that it has a padlock. In fact the door looks open at the bottom but this could just be an illusion as the top of the door looks closed. It would make a good hiding place for anyone wanting to be hidden.

Thank you for sharing this

 

[PS8800]

Apologies I can't find post to credit, but upthread someone posted this excellent police article about research into finding bodies in water. One thing it mentions is buoyancy, and it says: generally, well-clothed bodies are more buoyant than less clothed (because of air pockets), and generally older people are more buoyant than younger people (and the author hypothesises this is down to decreased bone density). I further hypothesise that women will be slightly more buoyant than men, because they generally have lower bone mass and density.

Why is this relevant? NB was a mid-aged, woman, in lots of winter clothing. Based on the above, I think it's fair to assume that she would be on the more buoyant end of the spectrum had she unfortunately drowned in the water. If it's true, it should increase the likelihood she would have been found in the immediate aftermath (spotted from the river bank, from the air, etc.).

If it's not true, she would have probably sunk (IMO), not made it over the weir, and not moved far from the point of entry.
Both can't be true at the same time! So, again, furthers my doubt she was in the water.

This info needs to be be quantitive. Otherwise it proves nothing.

 

[Night Shift]

Much of London and Paris are near the river, that doesn‘t mean that everyone who vanishes there goes into the river: so no it doesn’t follow that when people vanish near water they “almost always” went into it.

When anyone goes missing it’s more likely that they haven’t been abducted but some people have.

What is likely and what is true are not the same thing.

''Near' a river and within 6 feet of a muddy, slippery, steep riverbank are 2 different things.

 

[kittythehare]

If they’re not experts in drowning and they’re not pulling x number of bodies a year out of water, then the opinion of these “experienced experts” (sic) is somewhat theoretical.

I've mentioned some of these in the past, this includes His Majesty's Coast Guard, Lancashire Fire Rescue, Lancaster area and Bowland Mountain Rescue, other forces and national experts in different fields.

We have engaged with and worked shoulder to shoulder with a number of very specific experts, as I mentioned earlier. These include the National Crime Agency, who have reviewed all of the police investigation so far and have not identified any other lines of enquiry other than what we had already identified. Likewise, we are working with the Police National Search Advisor, who again, has not identified anything in the search strategy or the search area, the physical parameters

We also have a number of divers from the regional underwater search unit

No shortage of experts .

UK - Nicola Bulley, St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 27, 2023 *MEDIA, MAPS, & TIMELINES - NO DISCUSSION*

www.websleuths.com

 

[Pharmer1908]

is it just me that finds it VERY STRANGE that Roger Jones who died on this same stretch of river went missing exactly 45 years prior, TO THE DAY.
Surely there’s some kind of link? It’s too much of a coincidence that it was exactly the same day.

 

[Allabouttrial]

Apologies I can't find post to credit, but upthread someone posted this excellent police article about research into finding bodies in water. One thing it mentions is buoyancy, and it says: generally, well-clothed bodies are more buoyant than less clothed (because of air pockets), and generally older people are more buoyant than younger people (and the author hypothesises this is down to decreased bone density). I further hypothesise that women will be slightly more buoyant than men, because they generally have lower bone mass and density.

Why is this relevant? NB was a mid-aged, woman, in lots of winter clothing. Based on the above, I think it's fair to assume that she would be on the more buoyant end of the spectrum had she unfortunately drowned in the water. If it's true, it should increase the likelihood she would have been found in the immediate aftermath (spotted from the river bank, from the air, etc.).

If it's not true, she would have probably sunk (IMO), not made it over the weir, and not moved far from the point of entry.
Both can't be true at the same time! So, again, furthers my doubt she was ever in the water.

That would be @cottonweaver

 

[crazychris]

For the Police's main working hypothesis to still be that Nicola entered the river there must be a piece of information stronger than all the above combined that we don't know about. In my mind it must therefore be almost blatant


JMO

That's what I said in my post a little while ago. Something they know.

 

[wackyw]

If they’re not experts in drowning and they’re not pulling x number of bodies a year out of water, then the opinion of these “experienced experts” (sic) is somewhat theoretical.

I think some of them will be experts in drowning.
I think others will be experts in pulling bodies out of the water, and not just human carcasses.
I think it'll be a bit more than "theoretical", and a lot better than "I reckon" or "sales pitch".
JMO

 

[Seattle1]

No … according to police statement 6 th Feb the last known sighting appears to be 9.20 am in the upper field.
This is a change. And yet previously they said the phone was located at bench at. 9.20
This is getting really confusing now

The following quote by BBC with graphic image citing Lancashire Constabulary as the source also states NB recognised by witness in upper field at 9:10 AM.

Nicola Bulley: Witness comes forward in search for missing mum

Police have traced a woman in a yellow coat who was walking on Garstang Road on 27 January.

www.bbc.com

5 Feb 2023

Police said their "working hypothesis is that she has fallen into the river for some reason", adding there was "no evidence" of anything suspicious.

Supt Sally Riley, of Lancashire Police, told The Sunday Times that officers found "no evidence of a slip or fall" near the bench where Nicola's mobile phone was found but said falling from a sheer riverbank may leave no trace.

"I think if it had been a sloping bank, a common-sense view would be that you would expect to find scuff marks," Supt Riley said.

"If it is sheer and you lose your footing, you might not have any marks left on the grass. All of that has been subjected to a detailed search."

[..]

Detectives said they were "as confident as we can be that Nicola has not left the field where she was last seen, and our working hypothesis is that she has fallen into the river for some reason".

"Our investigation remains open and we will of course act on any new information which comes to light."

They said that social media speculation and abuse aimed at some people assisting the investigation was "totally unacceptable".

View attachment 401654

 

[Dowls90]

''Near' a river and within 6 feet of a muddy, slippery, steep riverbank are 2 different things.

If the river bank was indeed muddy and slippery, where are the skid marks of her entering?

 

[ayrshireguy]

is it just me that finds it VERY STRANGE that Roger Jones who died on this same stretch of river went missing exactly 45 years prior, TO THE DAY.
Surely there’s some kind of link? It’s too much of a coincidence that it was exactly the same day.

NB was 45....

 

[cottonweaver]

Much of London and Paris are near the river, that doesn‘t mean that everyone who vanishes there goes into the river: so no it doesn’t follow that when people vanish near water they “almost always” went into it.

When anyone goes missing it’s more likely that they haven’t been abducted but some people have.

What is likely and what is true are not the same thing.

yes but if you read how they've arrived at their current hypothesis, it's not just about the river being near, her possessions and her dog.

media thread -
transcript of the press conferences.
all in there

 

[Night Shift]

If the river bank was indeed muddy and slippery, where are the skid marks of her entering?

I've never seen a theory in this case that she slipped in. More like she went to the water's edge for some unknown reason and fell in. The point is - she was within 6 feet or so of that river and I agree with the police that it's the most likely scenario in the absence of any other evidence.