Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[PS8800]

I think the thing most likely to have caused her to drown is cold water shock and panic, disorientation, causing her to inhale enough water to drown. If she managed to keep her head out of the water for the 3 mins or so it takes for breathing to calm down, I think she could have survived.

Down coats float and the heaviest thing would be her jeans - her boots were elasticated and she had thick socks so it’s not like wearing big wellies.

Her boots were wellies…

 

[Willowy]

This is very helpful. I’ve seen the steps. I also noticed there are trees to the left and right growing right down into the water. Even if her clothes were too heavy to pull herself out she could have held on to them to shout for help.

But she wouldn't be shouting for help if she was unconscious from the fall, or from a medical incident.

 

[sriraaacha]

Not sure if this has been posted yet.

Rocks that Nicola could have hit her head on if she fell in head first imo.

From here: Nicola Bulley dive expert reveals video ‘proof’ she didn’t fall into the river

 

[Night Shift]

As someone who lives in the area and has fished there I can honestly say that this area of river isn’t dangerous. The river gets larger and much deeper miles down further towards the coast past the weir.
At the bench it’s 3ft deep at 9.30am this time of year without much of a current.

To be honest the banks really aren’t that steep there and there are actually some very small steps in that exact place going down the bank.
It would not be too difficult for a physically able person to climb out.

The search and rescue boats actually had trouble navigating that part of the river as it’s too shallow for a motor.
They had members of the team walking alongside the dinghies and they were up to their knees in the water.

If she turns up further towards the coast or out at sea I suspect she walked or ran much further down river.

( In response to this post : UK - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9 )

Sorry, but what you have written isn't accurate.

I too am familiar with that precise area and the water depth where the bench is is typically over 6 feet deep, even in summer. More at this time of year. There is a reason the local fishing club (their map linked to below) refer to the bench area as the 'Deep Hole Swim'

The stretch of the Wyre down stream of the weir (towards the estuary) at St Michael's is actually often quite shallow, because it's tidal. It doesn't start to deepn again appreciably until one gets closer to the estuary.


https://stmichaelsaa.co.uk/~rotkyiwx/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/St-Michaels-Stretch-Map-and-Key.pdf

 

[Allabouttrial]

Not sure if this has been posted yet.

Rocks that Nicola could have hit her head on if she fell in head first imo.

From here: Nicola Bulley dive expert reveals video ‘proof’ she didn’t fall into the river

Just for context also from your link:

---

Speaking about the video, Peter said: "The log stayed at that point for 20 minutes, and it actually spiralled and went up six feet and came back to the same place.

"The river on the day was slightly higher - it was about a foot higher - but I'd be very surprised in my experience [if she was there] as a body usually goes to the bottom very quickly.

---

 

[Deleted member 320164]

Her boots were wellies…

They were elasticated ankle wellies - I have an Ugg pair myself. You can see them on the CCTV footage.

 

[PS8800]

As someone who lives in the area and has fished there I can honestly say that this area of river isn’t dangerous. The river gets larger and much deeper miles down further towards the coast past the weir.
At the bench it’s 3ft deep at 9.30am this time of year without much of a current.

To be honest the banks really aren’t that steep there and there are actually some very small steps in that exact place going down the bank.
It would not be too difficult for a physically able person to climb out.

The search and rescue boats actually had trouble navigating that part of the river as it’s too shallow for a motor.
They had members of the team walking alongside the dinghies and they were up to their knees in the water.

If she turns up further towards the coast or out at sea I suspect she walked or ran much further down river.

I think you need to take another look at the edge of the embankment there. Not a chance a grown man could pull himself out of that, sorry.

 

[Nine Lives]

Its easy to remain emotionally detached somewhat to these cases while youre busy thinking of all the possibilities, logisitcs, calculations etc but this evening ive just feel a real low with the realisation that its very likely she did end up going into that water.
All I can say is I hope she fainted or had some medical issue prior to going in and she didnt suffer.
And I seriously hope that bench gets removed from that part of the river and it gets partial fencing along with any other treacherous parts on that walk to deter people somewhat from getting close. That bench is an open invitation to a hellish part of the river.
My thoughts are with the family and I pray they get the chance to put Nicola to rest if it is the case.

Maybe it's me, but the river by the bench doesn't look very hellish compared to others I have seen?

 

[Night Shift]

I think the thing most likely to have caused her to drown is cold water shock and panic, disorientation, causing her to inhale enough water to drown. If she managed to keep her head out of the water for the 3 mins or so it takes for breathing to calm down, I think she could have survived.

Down coats float and the heaviest thing would be her jeans - her boots were elasticated and she had thick socks so it’s not like wearing big wellies.

I think we probably agree that Nicola sadly drowned.

The ankle wellies she was wearing do have elastic around the ankles but are still open enough around the top that they likelt filled with water quickly. They have to be open around the top so as to allow the user to wear thick socks, etc.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

Just for context also from your link:

---

Speaking about the video, Peter said: "The log stayed at that point for 20 minutes, and it actually spiralled and went up six feet and came back to the same place.

"The river on the day was slightly higher - it was about a foot higher - but I'd be very surprised in my experience [if she was there] as a body usually goes to the bottom very quickly.

---

If you go in head first but you’re not actually diving (ie arms outstretched) you‘ll enter the water quite shallowly. It would be more like a somersault. On the plus side it does show she wouldn’t have had a problem standing.

 

[Allabouttrial]

They were elasticated ankle wellies - I have an Ugg pair myself. You can see them on the CCTV footage.

You could be right, but I'm not seeing elasticated wellies in the CCTV images.

Nicola Bulley: Friend shares images of missing mum on day she vanished

Doorbell footage of Nicola Bulley outside her home on the day she disappeared is shared with the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk

ETA: Sorry I think I may have misinterpreted you I didn't read it properly! I thought you meant elasticated around the top to fit snug on her ankles.

 

[Trivento]

https://www.lep.co.uk/news/nicola-bulley-we-know-her-familys-pain-say-preston-family-who-lost-a-son-in-the-same-stretch-of-river-on-the-same-day-45-years-ago-4019028

Putting aside the date coincidence … imo … it is interesting to read in this article that poor RJ’s body took 2 months to appear , and it was quite a bit further down the river , so is in effect possibly a tragic example of what could sadly happen in case of NB , if she has passed away in the river..

On the other hand..if one takes the viewpoint that some deviant individual is involved in NB disappearance, then …imo …. It’s not completely unrealistic to surmise that such an individual could have known of this previous event and then decided to time their interception of NB on same date ( 45 years prior ..45 coincidentally being NB age ) ..to get some sort of sick kick from that …imo.. or perhaps just a quite extraordinary coincidence..!?

Whatever has happened..am still hoping for positive news regarding NB .

 

[Deleted member 320164]

I think we probably agree that Nicola sadly drowned.

The ankle wellies she was wearing do have elastic around the ankles but are still open enough around the top that they likelt filled with water quickly. They have to be open around the top so as to allow the user to wear thick socks, etc.

I don’t know whether I think she drowned or not, with zero evidence it’s hard to say.

 

[Allabouttrial]

@Lincoln34

In the same token, the police haven't raised most of what has been speculated upon as a possibility.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

The link I gave you is from a former Sussex Police operations office from the specialist search unit . also has done a PhD on body recovery . She's an expert with practical experience.

I thought I'd spare the website and not re-paste the transcript more than ten times in an hour.
This is the link for all the other partner organisations involved in the search:

UK - Nicola Bulley, St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 27, 2023 *MEDIA, MAPS, & TIMELINES - NO DISCUSSION*

www.websleuths.com

I’m talking about the original post of yours I replied to which made no reference to what “experts” you were referring to. You posted the link subsequently - I’ve read it before anyway.

 

[PS8800]

Maybe it's me, but the river by the bench doesn't look very hellish compared to others I have seen?

Scroll to 1:10 and pause it. Look at the banks of the river there. Its actually a shelf! Its easy to want to look for roaring tides and foam only to think of danger, but this is trouble. The ground is at risk of coming away under your feet before we even get into trying to get back out…

 

[PS8800]

Yes and let's ban beaches while we're at it.

Senseless response

 

[Wishingwell]

Sorry, but what you have written isn't accurate.

I too am familiar with that precise area and the water depth where the bench is is typically over 6 feet deep, even in summer. More at this time of year. There is a reason the local fishing club (their map linked to below) refer to the bench area as the 'Deep Hole Swim'

The stretch of the Wyre down stream of the weir (towards the estuary) at St Michael's is actually often quite shallow, because it's tidal. It doesn't start to deepn again appreciably until one gets closer to the estuary.


https://stmichaelsaa.co.uk/~rotkyiwx/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/St-Michaels-Stretch-Map-and-Key.pdf

Absolutely this!

 

[Nine Lives]

Scroll to 1:10 and pause it. Look at the banks of the river there. Its actually a shelf! Its easy to want to look for roaring tides and foam only to think of danger, but this is trouble. The ground is at risk of coming away under your feet before we even get into trying to get back out…

I can see what look like rudimentary steps that have been carved in the side of that bank, and also when the camera pans out, the opposite bank looks shallow and much easier to exit the river from. It just doesn't look like it's hellish. So the shock and cold may be a big factor as a previous poster alluded to, I get that. Also, the river doesn't look like it has much energy to carry a body very far away given the timelines when the searches first began. All my opinion and probably wrong

 

[PS8800]

I can see what look like rudimentary steps that have been carved in the side of that bank, and also when the camera pans out, the opposite bank looks shallow and much easier to exit the river from. It just doesn't look like it's hellish. So the shock and cold may be a big factor as a previous poster alluded to, I get that. Also, the river doesn't look like it has much energy to carry a body very far away given the timelines when the searches first began. All my opinion and probably wrong

I cant see steps, just a big gouge. Re the panning out of the drone, you wouldnt have those visuals when in that predicament at that spot.