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Yes, I agree with you @Skigh – a combination of what the police are saying and what they aren't makes me think (and hope) that they have a pretty good idea of the culprit and just need more evidence to charge them. I personally feel as though they're being very careful not to spook anybody.
I think it's more likely to be a stranger. If it was the guy they arrested I just don't see them releasing him and I understand there are scenarios where this happens but this didn't feel like one of them. They have a body and it would have taken a matter of hours to check the suspects movements that night so if they still think he did it they would have found something to make an initial charge surely, rather than release him. JMO
I wondered whether they were waiting for forensics to come back after the post-mortem? e.g. samples from under her fingernails
If they had any strong feelings that he did it, I would have though the last thing they would do is release him. I think they've pulled the "first date" in for questioning immediately as you would think and that whatever he has told them has been backed up by cctv etc. They probably have him at the bar waiting and both of their phone data and they've likely released him as they've not been able to tie him to the scene of the crime at all. All just speculation on my part and JMO of course. Makes no sense at all in this case that they would release him though. I get they have to build a case but if they thought he was a killer no way would they do that unless they had a specific reason to do so like him leading them to evidence or the body which isn't the case here. I think if he was their guy they would have found something very quickly to hold him on and built the case from there.
It is not surprising that Sabina wasn’t reported missing IMO, even by the friend she was meeting. She was only gone overnight and was an adult, seemed she didn’t live with parents or partner so no-one to notice immediately her absence / failure to come home and if the story is as simple as presented about the date, I wouldn’t imagine that he would report concerns either.
If I asked an old friend out and they didn’t show, I might well message them directly re being stood up, but would assume they got cold feet or had some kind of family emergency, car trouble, etc, before I would think of anything more sinister. Unless there was something more to worry me, then I wouldn’t bother her family and I certainly wouldn’t be reporting her missing. If we had mutual friends then I might check in there, providing it wasn’t weird to be seen to be chasing down where she was.
The police might have a suspect in the forefront of their mind who they are trying to build a case against. But I still instinctively don’t think it is the first date guy. I sort of think he might have been the first arrest but was able to prove it wasn’t him so he was let go; but like some people on here if they really thought it was him I would be surprised they released him so quickly.
But maybe they do have another chief suspect who is trickier to build a case against. But until they can/do they need to be open to the possibility of a stranger murder too. I am wondering if it’s something like the Joanna Yeates case. It took the police a month or so to arrest the next door neighbour because it took that long to build the case forensically. I really hope this to be the case and that they can build a case quickly so this hideous perpetrator can be brought to justice quickly.
It could be she knew her attacker or it was a neighbour or something as it was very close to home. But the outdoor nature of the attack almost always means its a random stranger and I'd be surprised if that wasn't the case, especially if it was a sexually motivated attack, have any details been released regarding this?
I also feel the most likely scenario will be a random attack. I would imagine not many people out of her immediate circle would know where she would be walking to that night.
I do think the first arrest was likely her date but imo ruled out quickly
The person arrested has not been ruled out as they are still under investigation.
So whoever they arrested has not been able to provide enough evidence to show the could definitely not be involved.