UK UK - Suzy Lamplugh, 25, Fulham, 28 Jul 1986 #4

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The earlier investigations inexplicably didn't consider recently released sex offenders, even though there must have been about 30 such released from the Scrubs so far that year. You can roughly work out the number by taking 1.2% of the annual convictions - the Scrubs holding that percentage of the UK jail population. The annual number of rape convictions has varied between 2500 and 4000 over the last few decades but the release rate and conviction rates must roughly match for obvious reasons. Ergo, the Scrubs released between 30 and 48 rapists a year. July 28th is week 30 of 52, so assuming these releases are more or less rateable, they would have let out between 17 and 28 rapists.

According to Jim Dickie the suspects in the 2000 reinvestigation were the 1986 suspects plus JC. After re-eliminating all the 1986 suspects that just left JC therefore he did it. The new evidence would therefore largely be about JC.

The obvious problem with this is that if you haven't eliminated the other recently released offenders as well, you don't know whether any of them did it, and you also don't know whether a similar circumstantial case could be assembled equally well against any of them. If your case amounts to "he's a wrong 'un and he'd just got out", well, the same is true of another 26 people which calls into question why you seized on one of them.

Please provide MSM for the following assertions:

1. That police did not consider recently released sex offenders in the SJL investigation

2. The holding capacity of HMP Wormwood Scrubs as a percentage of the UK prison estate in 1986

3. The statistical number of convictions for rape convictions each year

4. That release rates match conviction rates, as sentencing varies

5. That HMP Wormwood Scrubs release 30-52 offenders convicted of rape each year

6. That HMP Wormwood Scrubs released 17-28 offenders convicted of rape in the w/c 28/7/86

7. The statements from Jim Dickie in relation to the suspect base in the 2000 re-investigation

8. That police did not eliminate recently released offenders in the SJL investigation, review and re-investigation
 
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Please provide MSM for the following assertions that you have made:

1. That there was 'partial' match to SJL in the red Ford Sierra used by JC.
I posted before and asked if it was a myth, wiki carries this.

In 2007, a criminologist who had corresponded with Cannan revealed that the police reinvestigations of 2000–2002 had discovered DNA evidence in a car previously owned by Cannan that showed Lamplugh had previously been inside the vehicle.[57] The criminologist had pointed out to police that Cannan himself said he had access to a red Ford Sierra at the time Lamplugh disappeared, which police were previously unaware of.[57] Detectives subsequently attempted to find the car and discovered it in a north London scrap yard, allowing them to conduct DNA analysis on it.[58][6] Although these tests indicated Lamplugh had been in the car, as well as Cannan, the Crown Prosecution Service felt there was insufficient evidence to prove that they had been in the vehicle at the same time, meaning charges were unable to be brought against Cannan for her murder.[59] Although he previously had said he drove this car often, Cannan has since changed his story and now denies ever using the vehicle.[57] This is despite the fact that the man who lent it to him has confirmed that Cannan had access to it at the time and said Cannan may have had used it on the day Lamplugh disappeared.[60]


 
Videcette said: “Like most people, I originally believed that Cannan must have been responsible for Suzy Lamplugh’s disappearance and murder, because that is the narrative that has been perpetuated by the police and in the media over the past few decades.

“Yet, despite interviewing more than a hundred people, including colleagues, friends and police from both the first and second investigations – I failed to find a single shred of evidence that John Cannan even knew Suzy, let alone murdered her.

“Cannan provided alibi witnesses to the police, which were accepted during the 1980s and through to the mid-nineties. But then in 2000, after these witnesses had passed away, the police decided that these witnesses were no longer suitable and began questioning the evidence that those alibi witnesses would have provided.



So DV claims there isn’t a single bit of evidence supporting JC did this. So is he lying to sell his theory?


Why have The Met been so quiet on what evidence they have. Considering they have named him as their only suspect you would think they would at least reveal something to show the public they have the right man.



MOO MOO MOO
 
I posted before and asked if it was a myth, wiki carries this.

In 2007, a criminologist who had corresponded with Cannan revealed that the police reinvestigations of 2000–2002 had discovered DNA evidence in a car previously owned by Cannan that showed Lamplugh had previously been inside the vehicle.[57] The criminologist had pointed out to police that Cannan himself said he had access to a red Ford Sierra at the time Lamplugh disappeared, which police were previously unaware of.[57] Detectives subsequently attempted to find the car and discovered it in a north London scrap yard, allowing them to conduct DNA analysis on it.[58][6] Although these tests indicated Lamplugh had been in the car, as well as Cannan, the Crown Prosecution Service felt there was insufficient evidence to prove that they had been in the vehicle at the same time, meaning charges were unable to be brought against Cannan for her murder.[59] Although he previously had said he drove this car often, Cannan has since changed his story and now denies ever using the vehicle.[57] This is despite the fact that the man who lent it to him has confirmed that Cannan had access to it at the time and said Cannan may have had used it on the day Lamplugh disappeared.[60]


It's probably just Wikipedia garbage, Richard. The entire article is a farrago.
 
I posted before and asked if it was a myth, wiki carries this.

In 2007, a criminologist who had corresponded with Cannan revealed that the police reinvestigations of 2000–2002 had discovered DNA evidence in a car previously owned by Cannan that showed Lamplugh had previously been inside the vehicle.[57] The criminologist had pointed out to police that Cannan himself said he had access to a red Ford Sierra at the time Lamplugh disappeared, which police were previously unaware of.[57] Detectives subsequently attempted to find the car and discovered it in a north London scrap yard, allowing them to conduct DNA analysis on it.[58][6] Although these tests indicated Lamplugh had been in the car, as well as Cannan, the Crown Prosecution Service felt there was insufficient evidence to prove that they had been in the vehicle at the same time, meaning charges were unable to be brought against Cannan for her murder.[59] Although he previously had said he drove this car often, Cannan has since changed his story and now denies ever using the vehicle.[57] This is despite the fact that the man who lent it to him has confirmed that Cannan had access to it at the time and said Cannan may have had used it on the day Lamplugh disappeared.[60]



I think the moral of this story is threefold:

1. Don't trust what Wikipaedia says. As @Konstantin would advise.....find the original source not the Chinese whisperers!

2. Be cautious of what CBD proffers. It suits him financially to link everything to the SJL case

3. What the police say directly is the most reliable information
 
I posted before and asked if it was a myth, wiki carries this.

In 2007, a criminologist who had corresponded with Cannan revealed that the police reinvestigations of 2000–2002 had discovered DNA evidence in a car previously owned by Cannan that showed Lamplugh had previously been inside the vehicle.[57] The criminologist had pointed out to police that Cannan himself said he had access to a red Ford Sierra at the time Lamplugh disappeared, which police were previously unaware of.[57] Detectives subsequently attempted to find the car and discovered it in a north London scrap yard, allowing them to conduct DNA analysis on it.[58][6] Although these tests indicated Lamplugh had been in the car, as well as Cannan, the Crown Prosecution Service felt there was insufficient evidence to prove that they had been in the vehicle at the same time, meaning charges were unable to be brought against Cannan for her murder.[59] Although he previously had said he drove this car often, Cannan has since changed his story and now denies ever using the vehicle.[57] This is despite the fact that the man who lent it to him has confirmed that Cannan had access to it at the time and said Cannan may have had used it on the day Lamplugh disappeared.[60]


This looks like a confusion of the Lamplugh case with the Sandra Court case.
Two hairs were found in the Sierra that were a partial DNA match to Sandra Court.
There was no trace of Suzy Lamplugh in the Sierra.

As the CPS investigator stated:
"There was no direct evidence linking the suspect [Cannan] with the victim [Suzy Lamplugh]".
 
So DV claims there isn’t a single bit of evidence supporting JC did this. So is he lying to sell his theory?

Of course he is being exceptionally economical with the truth, being selective and interpreting others statements to put his own spin on events, intent, thoughts....he has a vested interest financially and personally to undermine the case that JC is the "only suspect".

There is significant circumstantial evidence against JC and witness evidence that supports events in Shorrolds Road. There is no direct evidence that JC came into contact with SJL....maybe this is what he means, albeit in an opaque way.

DV has no evidence to support his theory. The evidence is that SJL was going to the PoW sometime after 18:00, not earlier.

The only way DV can offer up his theory is to dismiss and denounce the evidence that diverts attention away from it.

However, he cant offer any evidence of his own to undermine what the police have. Neither can he offer any evidence to support his theory

Why have The Met been so quiet on what evidence they have. Considering they have named him as their only suspect you would think they would at least reveal something to show the public they have the right man.

The investigation is still unsolved and is still subject to further investigation. Confidentiality has to be maintained as with all criminal investigations. There are witnesses, confidential sources, police intelligence, police methods all contained within the investigation.
 
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I wonder how they could place JC in Fulham years after the fact when it’s not like today with all the CCTV and mobile pings.
 
Of course he is being exceptionally economical with the truth, being selective and interpreting others statements to put his own spin on events, intent, thoughts....he has a vested interest financially and personally to undermine the case that JC is the "only suspect".

There is significant circumstantial evidence against JC and witness evidence that supports events in Shorrolds Road. There is no direct evidence that JC came into contact with SJL....maybe this is what he means, albeit in an opaque way.

DV has no evidence to support his theory. The evidence is that SJL was going to the PoW sometime after 18:00, not earlier.

The only way DV can offer up his theory is to dismiss and denounce the evidence that diverts attention away from it.

However, he cant offer any evidence of his own to undermine what the police have. Neither can he offer any evidence to support his theory



The investigation is still unsolved and is still subject to further investigation. Confidentiality has to be maintained as with all criminal investigations. There are witnesses, confidential sources, police intelligence, police methods all contained within the investigation.
SJL may have been carjacked enroute to Shorrolds Rd, logically it would make sense to check the PoW for her remains.
 
SJL may have been carjacked enroute to Shorrolds Rd, logically it would make sense to check the PoW for her remains.

@Pinkizzy, that SJL was carjacked is a hypothesis. I could come up with hundreds. We probably all could!

Hypotheses are used at the beginning of investigations to ensure that the investigating officers have actively identified ALL the possible scenarios and that they are using an open approach to what could have happened.....its's essentially a brainstorming session.

HOWEVER

You cannot have a hypothesis and then suddenly jump to the conclusion that 'we need to go and search somewhere'. It is not in the least bit 'logical'!

Every decision has be recorded as an audit trail of the investigation, with evidence and reasoning. Sudden actions without evidence and reasoning are not an effective use of time or resources either.

YES.....by all means have hypotheses but then go hunting for evidence by identifying lines of enquiry which may lead to evidence, e.g. house to house enquiries to seek possible witnesses. Hypotheses and possible suspects can be advanced or rejected, throughout the investigation......until you are left with......your Prime Suspect!

Let the evidence lead the way and if leads to SLJ having gone to the PoW and not being seen since then......YES.....interview the staff, possibly arrest one of more if the suspicion and grounds for arrest are met and search for evidence at the PoW, using either police powers of search, if applicable, or obtaining a search warrant from the court.

Think like an investigator......objectively, openly, cautiously, thoroughly.....but always let the evidence lead the way.
 
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Of course he is being exceptionally economical with the truth, being selective and interpreting others statements to put his own spin on events, intent, thoughts....he has a vested interest financially and personally to undermine the case that JC is the "only suspect".

There is significant circumstantial evidence against JC and witness evidence that supports events in Shorrolds Road. There is no direct evidence that JC came into contact with SJL....maybe this is what he means, albeit in an opaque way.

DV has no evidence to support his theory. The evidence is that SJL was going to the PoW sometime after 18:00, not earlier.

The only way DV can offer up his theory is to dismiss and denounce the evidence that diverts attention away from it.

However, he cant offer any evidence of his own to undermine what the police have. Neither can he offer any evidence to support his theory



The investigation is still unsolved and is still subject to further investigation. Confidentiality has to be maintained as with all criminal investigations. There are witnesses, confidential sources, police intelligence, police methods all contained within the investigation.

DV sets up his book to lead the reader to a certain conclusion. I think he is actually quite clever in how he does it--he presents witnesses in such a way as to lead you to think that they are weird or odd in some way, words he uses himself a lot to describe them. HIs interview with the temp landlord is the best example of this as he presents him in a very negative light. It is not a neutral presentation at all. I have no idea what his motivation is. He claims to have spent a fortune on his investigation and I beleve the book is self published so he had no advance.

He sets up his book to try to demonstrate that (1) SJL was not going to 37SR and (2) her appointment with Kipper was faked so she could go somewhere else (3) which he decides can only be the POW and then (4) presents the interview with the temp landlord to set him up as being somehow dodgy and basically accuses him of murdering SJL although he is careful to hedge this by not overtly saying it--probably he has had legal advice (which is not cheap).

For him to have a reasonable go at (4) he has to destroy the 37SR working police theory.

His reasonings are:

(1) SJL "never took the keys" which is based on his hypothesis that the police did not have to break in to the property, which he bases on a press photo of the door, and the former owner of Sturgis telling him that normally there was only one set of keys per property.

For this to be true, we would have to have the Sturgis staff be either thick, lying to the police (because if they knew there was only one set of keys and they were in the office, they would have had to lie to say SJL took them), and all the staff conspiring to continue the lie, and/or the police being bumbling idiots who were all recruited from various village idiot competitions.

He also dismisses all the witness sightings (one dismissal involves him trying to locate one of the unemployed males who were on the street at the time of SJL's appointment at SR, because they were attending or returning from collecting benefits). He cannot locate the male but locates someone with his name at an address via the electoral roll and talks to a female at the address who says she has no knowledge of the male ever living there, DV dismisses this as the woman lying and gives the impression there is some dark nefarious reason for it (either she is telling the truth and has no knowledge of the male who may or may not be the same person as the witness from 30 years ago or she didn't want to talk to some rando who knocked on her door and was a bit persistent). Either way, this is meaningless.

(2) He bases this on the name being most likely fake, no record of the person in Sturgis files. I also think there is no real live person called Mr Kipper but this does not mean SJL did not go to 37 SR with the intention of meeting someone there.

(3) I think his reasoning here is not very convincing. We don't know everything about SJL's life so if she were not going to SR that does not mean she was going to the POW, she could have gone literally anywhere. He decides she is going to the pub because picking her diary up cannot wait until after she finishes work. To boost this theory he relies on a radio interview with DL, who he elsewhere slams as being totally unreliable, who says SJL was planning to play tennis that evening. I really don't think that this is at all reliable and no one ever came forward to say they had plans to meet SJL that evening for tennis or anything else.

(4) I'm not impressed with him setting up an easy to find, real person as a murder suspect. He should know better than that. His interview with the temp landlord was disrespectful.

Again, I don't know what DV's motivations are but they seem more complex than just him wanting to find SJL. I am sure he wants to find SJL, I don't doubt that. But he has some deeper, probably personal, issues with the Met, I would suggest. What they are and why-- no clue.
 
The tennis story I think is false and mum misremembered.


The fact she had no tennis stuff with her that day and the fact she says she will got to POW and has a property viewing would indicate tennis wasn’t on the agenda Monday night. MOO IMO
 
DV sets up his book to lead the reader to a certain conclusion. I think he is actually quite clever in how he does it--he presents witnesses in such a way as to lead you to think that they are weird or odd in some way, words he uses himself a lot to describe them. HIs interview with the temp landlord is the best example of this as he presents him in a very negative light. It is not a neutral presentation at all. I have no idea what his motivation is. He claims to have spent a fortune on his investigation and I beleve the book is self published so he had no advance.

He sets up his book to try to demonstrate that (1) SJL was not going to 37SR and (2) her appointment with Kipper was faked so she could go somewhere else (3) which he decides can only be the POW and then (4) presents the interview with the temp landlord to set him up as being somehow dodgy and basically accuses him of murdering SJL although he is careful to hedge this by not overtly saying it--probably he has had legal advice (which is not cheap).

For him to have a reasonable go at (4) he has to destroy the 37SR working police theory.

His reasonings are:

(1) SJL "never took the keys" which is based on his hypothesis that the police did not have to break in to the property, which he bases on a press photo of the door, and the former owner of Sturgis telling him that normally there was only one set of keys per property.

For this to be true, we would have to have the Sturgis staff be either thick, lying to the police (because if they knew there was only one set of keys and they were in the office, they would have had to lie to say SJL took them), and all the staff conspiring to continue the lie, and/or the police being bumbling idiots who were all recruited from various village idiot competitions.

He also dismisses all the witness sightings (one dismissal involves him trying to locate one of the unemployed males who were on the street at the time of SJL's appointment at SR, because they were attending or returning from collecting benefits). He cannot locate the male but locates someone with his name at an address via the electoral roll and talks to a female at the address who says she has no knowledge of the male ever living there, DV dismisses this as the woman lying and gives the impression there is some dark nefarious reason for it (either she is telling the truth and has no knowledge of the male who may or may not be the same person as the witness from 30 years ago or she didn't want to talk to some rando who knocked on her door and was a bit persistent). Either way, this is meaningless.

(2) He bases this on the name being most likely fake, no record of the person in Sturgis files. I also think there is no real live person called Mr Kipper but this does not mean SJL did not go to 37 SR with the intention of meeting someone there.

(3) I think his reasoning here is not very convincing. We don't know everything about SJL's life so if she were not going to SR that does not mean she was going to the POW, she could have gone literally anywhere. He decides she is going to the pub because picking her diary up cannot wait until after she finishes work. To boost this theory he relies on a radio interview with DL, who he elsewhere slams as being totally unreliable, who says SJL was planning to play tennis that evening. I really don't think that this is at all reliable and no one ever came forward to say they had plans to meet SJL that evening for tennis or anything else.

(4) I'm not impressed with him setting up an easy to find, real person as a murder suspect. He should know better than that. His interview with the temp landlord was disrespectful.

Again, I don't know what DV's motivations are but they seem more complex than just him wanting to find SJL. I am sure he wants to find SJL, I don't doubt that. But he has some deeper, probably personal, issues with the Met, I would suggest. What they are and why-- no clue.

Such an valuable and objective assessment of the basis for DV's theory. Thanks

FWIW I don't believe there's an actual Mr Kipper involved. Although, knowing the reason for the name being recorded in the diary would possibly help to rule out/rule in different theories.

If SJL told DL she was playing tennis, then I suspect it was to cover for some innocent or not so innocent activity that SJL didn't want DL to know about.

After all DL seemed to be one to seek to control her children's lives, with some of the Lamplugh's extra-curricular activity ending up in often deeply embarrassing and pretentious 'family newsletters'.

JMO
 
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Interesting points @Konstantin. One thing I have not done is look at the sequence in which DV met his interviewees, which would have a bearing on how his theory came together. I am not sure he had to debunk 37SR because he had already decided CV dunnit. IIRC he concludes she didn't go to 37SR first, and only then started talking to people about where else she might have gone.

IMO the PoW is where she was headed but I am not persuaded she ever arrived.

It's likely that there is stuff DV knows that is not in the book. If, for example, he traced CV's previous addresses, cross referenced them to missing females and found that deaths and disappearances started when CV moved there and stopped when he moved away, that would put quite a different cast on CV.
 
I can't think of any reason why she would prioritise going to the pub. She knew her possessions were in safekeeping until she called to collect them. She had cancelled her chequebook so there was no urgency there: it couldn't have been used by anyone else, and if she had wanted it for shopping during the day she wouldn't have been able to use it herself.

It makes most sense that she would go there on the way home as it was close to where she lived, and obviously open in the evening.
 
One of the many issues that I have with DV is he doesn’t follow up on so called strange behavior. I am assuming because it doesn’t fit his agenda.


Like the Ex wife for example and of course the Ex boyfriend who was cheated on it seems quite blatantly and wasn’t treated that well by Suzy who happened to also be there when he claims the cheque book and diary went missing.


Why wouldn’t he follow up on these weird exchanges?
 
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