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Paul Cruickshank, @CruickshankPaul
Editor-in-Chief-CTC Sentinel, CNN Terrorism Analyst
https://twitter.com/CruickshankPaul/status/995665581448814594
The Surabaya attacks saw a confluence of several trends @CTCWP Sentinel has been tracking...
1. A growth in recent years in the ISIS and jihadi terrorist threat in South East Asia:
2. Significant concern about the ISIS related threat to Indonesia:
3. ISIS's move towards promoting female jihad:
4. ISIS's mobilization of children in attacks:
5. The group's weaponization of the very young:
6. Jihadi terrorists' increasing exploitation of family bonds:
BBM
:notgood:
Editor-in-Chief-CTC Sentinel, CNN Terrorism Analyst
https://twitter.com/CruickshankPaul/status/995665581448814594
The Surabaya attacks saw a confluence of several trends @CTCWP Sentinel has been tracking...
1. A growth in recent years in the ISIS and jihadi terrorist threat in South East Asia:
https://ctc.usma.edu/the-islamic-state-looks-east-the-growing-threat-in-southeast-asia/
While much attention has been focused on the Islamic State threat to Europe, the increasingly fertile ground for jihadi expansion in Southeast Asia means the Islamic State may pose as big a future threat to the East as the West. Islamic State operatives inside Syria and Iraq have leveraged existing local networks in Southeast Asian countries to remotely enable terrorist plots in their home countries, and there is concern that foreign fighters, and not simply Southeast Asian returnees, will export terrorism to the region as the Islamic State suffers setbacks in Syria and Iraq. These threat trends may accelerate if the Islamic State declares a wilaya in parts of Southeast Asia where extremist groups already enjoy safe havens, creating a potential magnet for foreign fighters.
2. Significant concern about the ISIS related threat to Indonesia:
https://ctc.usma.edu/the-jakarta-attack-and-the-islamic-state-threat-to-indonesia/
The January 14 attack in Jakarta shows the growing military capacity of Islamic State supporters in Indonesia. It also reveals the important role played by key Indonesians in Syria as a link to militant jihadis back home providing direction, possible finance and, above all, tapping into local grievances over the actions of the Indonesian state and police. Indonesia will continue to face a threat from the Islamic State in 2016 and beyond and may suffer from further attacks, but it is highly unlikely that the group will succeed in establishing a wilayat on Indonesian territory in any meaningful way.
3. ISIS's move towards promoting female jihad:
https://ctc.usma.edu/the-mujahidat-dilemma-female-combatants-and-the-islamic-state/
There has been an apparent shift in the Islamic States position on whether or not women can participate in combat. While female suicide bombers were used extensively by the Islamic States predecessor group, al Qa`ida in Iraq, the Islamic State strictly mandated that women should be wives and mothers rather than fighters. With the group under pressure and facing recruitment challenges, two recent announcements suggest it has lifted its moratorium on women combatants, a shift that could have significant implications for regional and international security
4. ISIS's mobilization of children in attacks:
https://ctc.usma.edu/depictions-of-...slamic-states-martyrdom-propaganda-2015-2016/
The Islamic State is mobilizing children and youth at an increasing and unprecedented rate. The authors present preliminary findings from a new database in which they recorded and analyzed child and youth martyrs eulogized by the Islamic State between January 2015 and January 2016. The data suggests that the number of child and youth militants far exceeds current estimates. The article presents data on the children and youths country of origin, age, role, location of death, and under what circumstances they were killed. The authors also describe several trends in the propaganda before discussing the varied and complex implications of the Islamic States long-term vision for its children and youth.
5. The group's weaponization of the very young:
https://ctc.usma.edu/the-islamic-st...s-of-youth-radicalization-and-indoctrination/
Previous sociocultural research linked conditions in the Iraq conflict zone with factors known to be associated with youth violence and radicalization, supporting predictions of a future cohort of fighters that would be extremely aggressive, violent, and remorseless. The exacerbation of these conditions and intentional efforts by the Islamic State to indoctrinate and radicalize youth has resulted in the weaponization of children, creating a perfect storm of consequence and influence. Unless addressed effectively, this will represent a persistent, transgenerational capability in support of the Islamic States long game.
6. Jihadi terrorists' increasing exploitation of family bonds:
https://ctc.usma.edu/the-ties-that-bind-how-terrorists-exploit-family-bonds/
Tightening security environments are encouraging jihadis to turn increasingly to the family unit for recruits. This phenomenon complicates efforts to detect, monitor, and prevent violent radicalization. Kinship recruitment, which is difficult for security agencies to observe, is facilitated by several psychological mechanisms that bind individuals together on the path to extremism. Importantly, it deters ambivalent recruits from defecting to the authorities for fear of damaging their own valued relationships. The reliance on kinship recruitment is supplemented by greater use of social media and an emphasis on recruiting Islamic converts and women, which suggests that jihadis are adjusting their mobilization patterns to avoid detection based on previous, well-known strategies for radicalization.
BBM
:notgood: