Recent content by rodent69

Been a long time for me as well. If I want to take a sample and decide the odds of any random person sharing multiple characteristics I need to take a larger sample size to maintain the same level of prediction accuracy that I would have when predicting 1 trait. But you are correct, that...

My point being that these models don't help to find a serial killer, but may be dangerously allow people to overlook pontential suspects.

Sure for any 1 given trait. If I want to find the likelihood of sharing 2 traits, I need to increase the sample size to maintain the same accuracy.

An exaggeration, but essentially correct. So your are saying that even though they appear to be of similar ethnicity and gender, they don't look enough alike for there to be a common appearance factor like Ted Bundy's victims. It's a sample size of 4. Exclude MW and you have a much more...

um .. you started out making a case that the killer would be the SAME ethnicity as the victims.

Kind of off topic to the thread, but I recently read that statement and wanted to highlight how abnormal that was for her.

http://www.newsday.com/news/breaking/did-gilgo-victims-let-their-guards-down-1.2950472?print=true

Dangerous topic considering the guy successfully sued for 19 odd million dollars. But it sounds like they subdued a fleeing suspect with their car. It's helpful to note the history of the guy they were dealing with "He did six years upstate beginning in 1992 after stealing a car and setting it...

contradicts a statement in my notes. "She spent a couple of hours with that client and then she became disoriented, confused. We're not exactly -- what happened, we have some ideas; we believe drugs may have been involved. And that led to a 911 call which went to our operator initially, but...

After thinking about it more, I came to the conclusion that she described the guy wearing sunglasses and a baseball hat, because she never saw him without those things. Kind of leads me to believe that he was trying to hide his identity. Even the hair under the cap might not be real. I...

Thank you for the notes. Missing a detail; The detective's theory was that it was a storm surge and not just the normal water flow that faced the bodies all in the same direction.

I didn't find anything concrete to work with back when that came up here, and it seemed unfair to drag some artists prettying up a community into the mess. The only thing I saved were a couple of images ... because of the resemblance of the two...

That isn't quite what I read. http://articles.cnn.com/2011-07-30/justice/long.island.killings_1_amber-lynn-costello-melissa-barthelemy-maureen-brainard-barnes/3?_s=PM:CRIME Maureen was from CT and was only scheduled to be in NY overnight. Following someone for over 100 miles on a bus...

My mistake, the half-breed comment is in reference to the sister who got the call. He wasn't talking about Melissa. http://nymag.com/news/features/long-island-serial-killer-families-2011-6/index3.html

I see no reason to use rodent analogies here. Was reading your profile on your website and wanted to make a few comments. In looking at what the girls had in common, I would say "they let their guard down". If you look at some of the histories, some of them normally traveled with what...