4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #108

[pittsburghgirl]

I plugged into a few different programs, 5 Pieces of evidence in the Kohberger case and the odds of them all occurring and BK being innocent.

Below you can see the odds that this program assigned to each event, which was the most conservative one I used.

Notice how I didn’t mention the DNA.

1. Ownership of the same type of car.
2. Driving at a time consistent with him being the killer.
3. Powering down his phone throughout the murder window.
4. Purchasing the same model knife and sheath, which are now missing.
5. Seeking to purchase the same model knife and sheath, beginning two days following the murders.

Combining the Probabilities
To estimate the odds of innocence, we consider the likelihood that all these events occur together by chance for an innocent person. In probability theory, if events are independent, their joint probability is the product of their individual probabilities. While these events are not entirely independent (e.g., owning a knife and searching for it are related), we can use rough estimates to illustrate the cumulative effect:
Car: ~1/100 (0.01)

Driving at 4 a.m.: ~1/50 (0.02)

Phone powered down: ~1/50 (0.02)

Owning and missing knife: ~1/5,000 (0.0002)

Searching for knife post-murder: ~1/10,000 (0.0001)

If we assume approximate independence for simplicity, the joint probability is:
0.01×0.02×0.02×0.0002×0.0001=8×10−120.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}0.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}

This translates to a 1 in 125 billion chance that an innocent person would match all these criteria by coincidence. Even if we adjust for partial dependence (e.g., knife ownership and searching being related), the combined probability remains extraordinarily low, likely on the order of 1 in millions.

I love the math. You could add "no front license plate." Less than half the states use one-plate and most of them are in southern, midwest and eastern states.

And this is the logic (minus the math) that got me, and I imagine many others, to conclude that law enforcement arrested the right person. Then add the DNA. Add the issues with women. And then let's see what forensics turned up in that apartment.

 

[Love Never Fails]

Good question. I personally don't think BK had a specific SK he wanted to emulate, Ted Bundy or BTK. I think he got caught up in the fantasy of committing the act. Was he planning on doing a IRL version of his sister's low budget horror film about the murders (by knife) of college kids? IDK

We know there was preplanning to some extent as BK purchased the KBAR knife and sheath months before moving to Washington. What was he doing with it during that time before the move?

Was BK already scoping out the 'SM hot babe scene' (gag) in Pullman and Moscow before leaving? We know he started driving by the house on Kings Road after the pool party in late June/July and racked up a whopping 23 times in total by the time of the murders.

I don't think there's any way he could have known he would be assigned AT. There are 13 total Death Qualified Defenders in ID as of April 2025, 5 State Public Defenders and 8 in Private Practice, but then again, he could have scoped that out beforehand and counted on the odds.

I agree it's all about Bry Bry. Look at me, I'm the smartest, scariest mass murderer that ever was. Like the scarecrow in The Wizard of Oz, if he only had a brain. He's not a genius or criminal mastermind, he's not special at all. That's why he's sitting in Ada County Jail awaiting trial on 4 counts of Capital Murder charges and Burglary.

It's not about his childhood, it's not about VSS, ASD, OCD or any other suddenly diagnosed MH issue. BK is plain evil and wanted to harm someone deeply and violently, they were everything he could never be.

Yes, all eyes on BK while he's found Guilty and sentenced to the DP or LWOP. Coward

Peace and Comfort most of all to the survivors, the victim's families, his own family and the community for the deep trauma they will endure with this trial.

All MOO

#Justice4KayleeMaddieXana&Ethan

Did I understand you right? His sister made a low budget horror film about murders by knife at a college? How creepy is this family? Was he trying to best her for attention?
I haven’t kept up with this trial as I would have so many nightmares and it isn’t worth that. But When I try to catch up, I read something like this! What kind of human being is his sister? Sounds like Stephen King.

 

[Sachi]

I plugged into a few different programs, 5 Pieces of evidence in the Kohberger case and the odds of them all occurring and BK being innocent.

Below you can see the odds that this program assigned to each event, which was the most conservative one I used.

Notice how I didn’t mention the DNA.

1. Ownership of the same type of car.
2. Driving at a time consistent with him being the killer.
3. Powering down his phone throughout the murder window.
4. Purchasing the same model knife and sheath, which are now missing.
5. Seeking to purchase the same model knife and sheath, beginning two days following the murders.

Combining the Probabilities
To estimate the odds of innocence, we consider the likelihood that all these events occur together by chance for an innocent person. In probability theory, if events are independent, their joint probability is the product of their individual probabilities. While these events are not entirely independent (e.g., owning a knife and searching for it are related), we can use rough estimates to illustrate the cumulative effect:
Car: ~1/100 (0.01)

Driving at 4 a.m.: ~1/50 (0.02)

Phone powered down: ~1/50 (0.02)

Owning and missing knife: ~1/5,000 (0.0002)

Searching for knife post-murder: ~1/10,000 (0.0001)

If we assume approximate independence for simplicity, the joint probability is:
0.01×0.02×0.02×0.0002×0.0001=8×10−120.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}0.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}

This translates to a 1 in 125 billion chance that an innocent person would match all these criteria by coincidence. Even if we adjust for partial dependence (e.g., knife ownership and searching being related), the combined probability remains extraordinarily low, likely on the order of 1 in millions.

This is enlightening! , and without the DNA evidence - Wowsa!

 

[Love Never Fails]

Has the judge made a decision about delaying trial due to someone leaking information? Does he know who leaked the information?

 

[Sachi]

RBBM

No doubt still proud of his outwittedness, in reality, it was a dimwitted plan because he failed to brush up on DNA, CCTV, CAST, etc.

It's too bad he didn't trip on the step, mid-house, and fall on his own sword.

JMO

Too bad indeed.

 

[StarryStarryNight]

I've been trying to connect the dots between Kohberger searching and drugged or sleeping, Bundy's first abduction and murder, and those instances where Bundy began the assault by hitting his victims in the head.

If Kohberger wanted to imitate Bundy, his first criminal activity would have been assaulting a woman in her bed, possibly leaving blood evidence, and taking her to an isolated location. Searching sleeping or drugged sexual assault may be the best search-engine imitation of a woman who is debilitated via head injury. Any search of hitting a woman in the head prior to assault would probably trigger red flags.

Although I haven't read details or seen autopsy, I have read upthread that Kaylee experienced blunt force assault in addition to stabbing. There has been a suggestion from Kaylee's family that she was injured more violently than the other 3 victims.

Blunt force injury is consistent with Bundy's first victim where she was injured, debilitated, and alive during abduction. I'm stil curious whether this was Kohberger's original intent, and whether that is the reason that the evidence leak is concerning for the prosecution.

"Bundy’s first known murder, the co-ed at Washington State University was reported missing on the day she vanished. Authorities found her bed neatly made – but the sheets were stained with her blood. For more than 2 years, her whereabouts were unknown until her skull was recovered on March 3, 1976. The dumping spot on Taylor Mountain became known as “Bundy’s graveyard” after 5 victims were found."​

Inside Serial Killer Ted Bundy's Trail of Murder

Here are some of the victims – and survivors – of one of the most notorious serial killers in American history

people.com

"In late September, records from the criminology student’s phone and in possession of law enforcement included an internet search for “Sociopathic Traits in College Student,” and the following month, there was a search for containing keywords “drugged” and “sleeping.”​

Searches and selfies: Idaho college murder suspect Bryan Kohberger's online habits emerge in new details

Digital materials and documents obtained by "Dateline" track the suspect's movements before and after four University of Idaho students were killed in 2022.

www.nbcnews.com

Thank you for reminding us of Bundy’s earliest murders.
I had been separating Bundy’s early murders, where he lured young women away with fake casts etc, and his invasion attack at FSU’s sorority house, equating what BK did, with the sorority house murders.
I was somehow forgetting his earliest crime where he entered a girl’s apartment, attacking her and taking her.
I still think the Chi Omega attack was what BK was ultimately trying to emulate, but it’s interesting that they both started their criminal careers in similar ways.

 

[StarryStarryNight]

Yikes!

I can’t follow math at all, but I presume you ran this through one of your trusty A.I. programs.

As you note, this is with exempting the DNA, and yet the odds are still insurmountable.

IMO and based on the science.

And yet, his attorneys still tilt their lances toward those insurmountable windmills.
They know he’s guilty. BK probably won’t admit it, wanting to keep his perfect crime dream alive. This keeps them from trying to negotiate even just the DP away.
So tons of time and loads of money are wasted. Pain and heartache and trauma continue because of BK.
He did it and he perpetuates it.

 

[Ghostwheel]

I plugged into a few different programs, 5 Pieces of evidence in the Kohberger case and the odds of them all occurring and BK being innocent.

Below you can see the odds that this program assigned to each event, which was the most conservative one I used.

Notice how I didn’t mention the DNA.

1. Ownership of the same type of car.
2. Driving at a time consistent with him being the killer.
3. Powering down his phone throughout the murder window.
4. Purchasing the same model knife and sheath, which are now missing.
5. Seeking to purchase the same model knife and sheath, beginning two days following the murders.

Combining the Probabilities
To estimate the odds of innocence, we consider the likelihood that all these events occur together by chance for an innocent person. In probability theory, if events are independent, their joint probability is the product of their individual probabilities. While these events are not entirely independent (e.g., owning a knife and searching for it are related), we can use rough estimates to illustrate the cumulative effect:
Car: ~1/100 (0.01)

Driving at 4 a.m.: ~1/50 (0.02)

Phone powered down: ~1/50 (0.02)

Owning and missing knife: ~1/5,000 (0.0002)

Searching for knife post-murder: ~1/10,000 (0.0001)

If we assume approximate independence for simplicity, the joint probability is:
0.01×0.02×0.02×0.0002×0.0001=8×10−120.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}0.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}

This translates to a 1 in 125 billion chance that an innocent person would match all these criteria by coincidence. Even if we adjust for partial dependence (e.g., knife ownership and searching being related), the combined probability remains extraordinarily low, likely on the order of 1 in millions.

It's funny. This doesn't even take in to consideration that during the time of the murders, most people are sleeping and still a very small proportion of those people turn their phones off at night. (something like 17% turn their phone completely off in his age range). I think 1/50 is way too low.

Chapter 1: Always on Connectivity

For most Americans, the cellphone is no longer an auxiliary or supplementary device to their landline telephone. Roughly nine-in-ten Americans own a

www.pewresearch.org

 

[Marie A]

I’ll be surprised if the two survivors are able to have a happy life. Not sure there’s enough therapy in the world to heal the wounds of survivor’s guilt

I really hope you are wrong about this. This statement is painful for me to read.

I think both of these girls have learned or will learn to forgive themselves.

There is absolutely nothing they could have done to stop the attacks after the fact.
Dylan’s actions very likely saved her life.
I don’t think Bethany’s life was in immediate danger as she was on the first floor.

Then again, we really don’t know if three of these victims were collateral damage or not. The leg carving leads me to believe that this sicko may have entered the home intending to wipe out everyone there but he ran out of steam.
I tend to believe three victims were indeed collateral damage but it’s hard to guess what this twisted perp had planned.

I’m torn whether Kohberger actually saw Dylan or not upon his exit.
Either he was too spent / exhausted from forcefully killing 4 people with his bare hands (which I lean towards) or because of the lighting in the house he simply didn’t see Dylan although she saw him quite clearly.

Either way Dylan was spared and scared and most likely in shock and also likely impaired from drinking and/or other that night. She obviously wasn’t processing the situation completely but was coherent enough to run down to Bethany’s room and stay there for many hours before facing reality.
She will undoubtedly play that evening over and over in her head - though a conviction may allow her an extended reprieve.
I don’t think any of the family or friends of the victims place any blame on D or B.
Them calling 911 hours earlier wouldn’t have changed the outcome- ambulances and first responders couldn’t save any of the four victims.

I personally think that D & B will both go on to have very happy and fulfilled lives despite suffering from PTSD. As a matter of fact, I think they will mature to embrace life dearly and with reverential gratitude. I envision them both finding compassionate and supportive partners and raising happy families along with exercising prudent caution for themselves and their loved ones moving forward. I also envision them advocating for victims in the future in their own ways.

Many of us on this website have experienced the violent loss of someone close to us. That’s why a lot of us are here.
We have seen those who could be forever consumed in “survivor’s guilt” move on -in some cases without any outside therapy- to have extremely joyful and full lives.

All IMHO

 

[pittsburghgirl]

Did I understand you right? His sister made a low budget horror film about murders by knife at a college? How creepy is this family? Was he trying to best her for attention?
I haven’t kept up with this trial as I would have so many nightmares and it isn’t worth that. But When I try to catch up, I read something like this! What kind of human being is his sister? Sounds like Stephen King.

She didn't make the film. She was an actress cast by the film's director. I come from the cradle of Zombie Nation, Western PA, home of George Romero and Night of the Living Dead. I don't think acting in a low-budget horror movie makes the sister a weirdo or a ghoul.

That said, I wonder how seeing his sister in that movie ping-ponged in the sociopathic head of her brother.

 

[pittsburghgirl]

I really hope you are wrong about this. This statement is painful for me to read.

I think both of these girls have learned or will learn to forgive themselves.

There is absolutely nothing they could have done to stop the attacks after the fact.
Dylan’s actions very likely saved her life.
I don’t think Bethany’s life was in immediate danger as she was on the first floor.

Then again, we really don’t know if three of these victims were collateral damage or not. The leg carving leads me to believe that this sicko may have entered the home intending to wipe out everyone there but he ran out of steam.
I tend to believe three victims were indeed collateral damage but it’s hard to guess what this twisted perp had planned.

I’m torn whether Kohberger actually saw Dylan or not upon his exit.
Either he was too spent / exhausted from forcefully killing 4 people with his bare hands (which I lean towards) or because of the lighting in the house he simply didn’t see Dylan although she saw him quite clearly.

Either way Dylan was spared and scared and most likely in shock and also likely impaired from drinking and/or other that night. She obviously wasn’t processing the situation completely but was coherent enough to run down to Bethany’s room and stay there for many hours before facing reality.
She will undoubtedly play that evening over and over in her head - though a conviction may allow her an extended reprieve.
I don’t think any of the family or friends of the victims place any blame on D or B.
Them calling 911 hours earlier wouldn’t have changed the outcome- ambulances and first responders couldn’t save any of the four victims.

I personally think that D & B will both go on to have very happy and fulfilled lives despite suffering from PTSD. As a matter of fact, I think they will mature to embrace life dearly and with reverential gratitude. I envision them both finding compassionate and supportive partners and raising happy families along with exercising prudent caution for themselves and their loved ones moving forward. I also envision them advocating for victims in the future in their own ways.

Many of us on this website have experienced the violent loss of someone close to us. That’s why a lot of us are here.
We have seen those who could be forever consumed in “survivor’s guilt” move on -in some cases without any outside therapy- to have extremely joyful and full lives.

All IMHO

Therapy will help. We know, though, through study of survivors of mass shootings, that the newest shooting triggers what I'm going to call a PTSD response, a flashback. Dave Cullen describes his own experience with such repeated trauma vividly in the epilogue to his book on Columbine. And of course, those of us who know survivors and their families know that the trauma leaves a hole in their lives. My therapist says it's like a tree with a wound. The wound remains but many times, the tree grows around the wound and continues its life.

 

[Love Never Fails]

She didn't make the film. She was an actress cast by the film's director. I come from the cradle of Zombie Nation, Western PA, home of George Romero and Night of the Living Dead. I don't think acting in a low-budget horror movie makes the sister a weirdo or a ghoul.

That said, I wonder how seeing his sister in that movie ping-ponged in the sociopathic head of her brother.

I misunderstood and thought his sister made the movie or wrote the script. I’m sorry.

 

[Megnut]

I plugged into a few different programs, 5 Pieces of evidence in the Kohberger case and the odds of them all occurring and BK being innocent.

Below you can see the odds that this program assigned to each event, which was the most conservative one I used.

Notice how I didn’t mention the DNA.

1. Ownership of the same type of car.
2. Driving at a time consistent with him being the killer.
3. Powering down his phone throughout the murder window.
4. Purchasing the same model knife and sheath, which are now missing.
5. Seeking to purchase the same model knife and sheath, beginning two days following the murders.

Combining the Probabilities
To estimate the odds of innocence, we consider the likelihood that all these events occur together by chance for an innocent person. In probability theory, if events are independent, their joint probability is the product of their individual probabilities. While these events are not entirely independent (e.g., owning a knife and searching for it are related), we can use rough estimates to illustrate the cumulative effect:
Car: ~1/100 (0.01)

Driving at 4 a.m.: ~1/50 (0.02)

Phone powered down: ~1/50 (0.02)

Owning and missing knife: ~1/5,000 (0.0002)

Searching for knife post-murder: ~1/10,000 (0.0001)

If we assume approximate independence for simplicity, the joint probability is:
0.01×0.02×0.02×0.0002×0.0001=8×10−120.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}0.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}

This translates to a 1 in 125 billion chance that an innocent person would match all these criteria by coincidence. Even if we adjust for partial dependence (e.g., knife ownership and searching being related), the combined probability remains extraordinarily low, likely on the order of 1 in millions.

Multibry that by brybrows and it's 1 in an even brigger number. Like a brillion.

It brings home the steady point you've been making for years, @MassGuy -- once they had a name, everything fit. They literally have the receipts.

JMO

 

[Megnut]

She didn't make the film. She was an actress cast by the film's director. I come from the cradle of Zombie Nation, Western PA, home of George Romero and Night of the Living Dead. I don't think acting in a low-budget horror movie makes the sister a weirdo or a ghoul.

That said, I wonder how seeing his sister in that movie ping-ponged in the sociopathic head of her brother.

I think BK has just enough self-awareness to be aware that he had the power to make other people uncomfortable and he sees that as a strength. People can be trifled with, toyed with.

I'm telling you, I was weirded out when I learned that "someone" (who had access to an office where a spare key say) let himself into an apartment, stealing a couple things and rearranging others.

And when I saw the sister's movie? Weirded out met a mate and had babies that are weirder still.

His sister's character escapes the killing field but breaks her glasses in the process. And, like I mentioned upthread, they reappear back at the campsite.

I don't know that BK is capable of original thought.

I absolutely can see him, particularly in light of his colleague's toiletries all lined up in a way they hadn't been, employing that technique while growing up. Now you see it, now you don't, now you see it again. Head games. Starting with his sisters.

There's got to be a unique profile for that. Different than kleptomania because it's not just the pocketing, it's the rearranging, and it makes ME wonder how many times BK was in bedrooms he didn't belong in, just moving things around, because he could. Watching people sleep? Also in the movie.

Carving? In the movie.

I don't think BK is upset he was caught, I don't think his psyche allows for that. I think he thinks he's still powerful, steel bars be damned, and has vivid plans for what he'll do next, as if he'll one day see freedom. It's his nature. To be right. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. To be superior. Despite significant failure. It's just who he is.

JMO

 

[Boxer]

Wow what a compelling breakdown! What stands out most to me is the cumulative weight of behavior that aligns so closely with the timeline of the murders, especially powering down the phone during the window of time and then actively searching for the same knife model shortly afterward. Even if some elements like owning the car are more common, when you start layering these behaviors together, the odds of coincidence really start to collapse. This highlights just how statistically unlikely it is that all of these red flags could line up around someone who is innocent.

Add also the absence of elements indicating innocence, like an alibi.

 

[pittsburghgirl]

I misunderstood and thought his sister made the movie or wrote the script. I’m sorry.

It's an understandable interpretation. You probably picked up on someone else using that language. In a way, she was part of making a film and it's not like she "starred."

 

[PinkParis2052]

Has the judge made a decision about delaying trial due to someone leaking information? Does he know who leaked the information?

No the judge hasn't issued a decision on the defense's request to delay the trial based on the leaked information and other reasons. I noticed that the case summary wasn't updated today either.
I'm waiting for the prosecution to file their objection to the delay in the trial before the judge issues an order. IMO.

 

[girlhasnoname]

Did I understand you right? His sister made a low budget horror film about murders by knife at a college? How creepy is this family? Was he trying to best her for attention?
I haven’t kept up with this trial as I would have so many nightmares and it isn’t worth that. But When I try to catch up, I read something like this! What kind of human being is his sister? Sounds like Stephen King.

Sorry, just now seeing your post @Love Never Fails I was off most of the day. It looks like someone was good enough to answer you.

No, his sister didn't write or make the low budget horror film, she played a smaller role in it. I just found the coincidence of it and what BK is awaiting trial for so odd. Basically, a similar plot.

JMO

 

[girlhasnoname]

I misunderstood and thought his sister made the movie or wrote the script. I’m sorry.

No worries.

 

[PunishThenForgive]

RBBM

No doubt still proud of his outwittedness, in reality, it was a dimwitted plan because he failed to brush up on DNA, CCTV, CAST, etc.

It's too bad he didn't trip on the step, mid-house, and fall on his own sword.

JMO

If only! Now THAT would have been divine justice more fitting, though perhaps less dramatic, than the bolt of lightning on a fishing pier that finished off Miss Penmark.