"Could Kyron Horman's disappearance yet have a happy ending?"
I think at this point, after all this time, there are no options for happy outcomes, just outcomes that are less awful than others.
Wheres Kyron?
Kyron is currently exploring the Washington State wilderness in the hands of an Extended Family Member (EFM) that loves him and would do nothing to harm him physically. He is relishing his chance to learn more about the species he has studied in school. He is completely unaware that there is a massive search underway.
I seem to recall his grandmother saying that he's afraid of the woods around their house and would not willingly enter them alone. That was in answer to speculation he'd run away on his own but I think it may also indicate he's probably not a kid to enjoy an extended wilderness trip.
Still, that would be better than any of the options I think of as being likely.
Since the vast majority of child abductions are perpetrated by family members, I think it likely that the local LE or FBI did check out the whereabouts of all family members, immediate and extended. Since none of them have been published as missing, I find it unlikely that there are any that are missing.
Of course, such investigations rely heavily on input of family members, so if the family members omitted to mention old Uncle Ferd, LE might not know to check out Ferd Jones. That would require most of the immediate family to be in collusion, I think. Which seems unlikely.
Kyrons current companion is an EFM with an unusually strong relationship with the SM.
How do you explain SMs behavior since Kyron went missing?
The SMs role in this disappearance could have been nothing more than that of enabler.
The SMs postings on social media have been her way of communicating with the EFM
allowing direct communication with plausible deniability.
Web postings on the day of the disappearance provided the EFM with updates on whether anyone at the school had yet recognized Kyrons absence. The photo of Kyron with a CSI shirt could well be an in-joke. The EFM may also have a webpage which effectively allows for two-way, but asynchronous, communication
If the EFM is in the wilderness with Kyron, how would they be accessing the internet? Most of the wilderness in the western US does not have complete cell coverage, so being able to pick up coded messages would be unpredictable.
So How Did Kyron disappear?
As the SM told us, she left Kyron at school
and bought the EFM time by creating confusion in the mind of Kyrons teacher about the timing of Kyrons appointment.
With her inside knowledge of the schools inadequate absence procedures, she told the EFM he would have at least 75 minutes to make the short journey across the Columbia River and into neighboring Washington State. If those 75 minutes extended to 180 minutes, the EFM could be as far as Seattle without the need to speed on Interstate 5.
If she did not get the call at the start of afternoon session, before the talent show, she figured the EFM could safely be anywhere in Washington State, before the alarm was sounded. Crossing the border into Canada though conceivable in the time-frame is far less likely as it could have led to unwanted border checks.
The EFM knew that by crossing state lines the chance of discovery was greatly minimized, there being far from seamless responses from different State LE's.
Of course, if Kyron who is a nervous sort of child reacted badly to his new circumstances, the plan allowed for the EFM to abort the operation on Day 1 by returning Kyron to a pre-agreed location near his home. Multiple drop-off times were prearranged.
How would they keep Kyron from telling all after he was dropped off?
What about the Cell Ping discrepancies alleged by Willamette Weekly?
With Kyrons father being tech savvy, much of his knowledge has rubbed off on his wife, and she knew with suspicion immediately falling on her as the last person to see the child, she could give LE some busy work which would buy some time for the EFM.
There are many possible explanations for the cell ping discrepancies, including that TMH did not accurately report her movements to LE to the Sauvie Island tower picking up her pings when she was exactly where she said she was.
SMs Motives could range from altruism to greed
Spending much time online has led to the SM following a number of well-publicized missing childrens cases. She knew her coded messages to EFM on Facebook would immediately lead to her vilification in the media
but with her EFM agreeing to "take the fall" and with her involvement plausibly deniable due to use of coded communication, she knew that LE could never prove that she had conspired. Like several other vilified family members in recent cases, she knew that eventually she would receive a pay-off from the media as compensation for being wrongly accused.
But that wasnt all
she could also hit the legal jackpot by suing the school district for failing to take adequate precautions to protect Kyron
a little bit of coaching to some of Kyrons young friends could easily lead to some of the youngsters making statements to the media which would quickly paint the School district in a very bad light.
Of course, apart the financial payoff, Kyrons disappearance is likely to lead to significant enhancement in school absence reporting. Maybe the ESM and SM have acted altruistically in an effort to bring about political change for the good of all schoolchildren. Maybe this idea was triggered by a flyer sent out by the school district only last may as part of its Safe Summer program.
EFM motives could range from altruism to anger
Why would the EFM take the fall? To allow the SM to get her payoff for one.
For another, maybe the idea was triggered by the continuing efforts of certain organizations to encourage parents to take advantage of anti-abduction kits. Such kits were being promoted for example at the recent Rose Festival in Portland. Interestingly one of the many not-for-profits promoting these kits is an organization sponsored by fraternal organizations. Several members of Kyrons extended family may have held leadership positions in fraternal not-for-profits.
Less generously, maybe the recent criminal prosecution of a member of Kyrons extended family has embittered other members of the extended family and led to a willingness in certain quarters to stick it to the authorities.
Who knows, but maybe due to declining health an older member of the extended family feels they have little to lose.
This all depends on TMH having an insane amount of trust in the EFM. Trust that the EFM would take good care of Kyron, trust that the EFM would not implicate her if they are caught, trust that Kyron would not implicate her if he is found, etc.
Maybe I'm a cynic, but I can't see trusting anyone that far. I would assume that the instant my co-conspirator was caught, they'd sing like a bird and transfer as much culpability to me as possible.
End Game.
After SM has been muddied enough by the media
Kyron will return from his extended vacation in the wilderness being dropped off at a location close to home
having been coached into keeping his mouth shut...giving the EFM plenty of time to prepare an exit.
In other words, just when all hope is fading
Kyron will reappear and reaffirm our belief that good things can happen!
That all hinges on adults trusting a seven year old to keep a secret.
It is true that some seven year olds can keep secrets. Not all can and not all seven year olds understand the parameters for what a secret is. Think of all the problems adults have in trying to define strangers for children! Now complicate that with trying to define what is and isn't part of the secret.
Most seven year olds would spill the secret if a sufficiently trustworthy adult asked them "what were you told not to tell anyone?"
Brainstorming
In the spirit of brainstorming , please challenge my storyline
and/or provide alternatives that also result in the ending for which we all pray!
I cannot do the latter because I just don't see any that seem realistic to me.
I have tried to challenge your story line.
Overall, the problems I see with it are that it involves way too many people who each have to trust all the other people in on the conspiracy, including a seven year old boy. That level of trust seems highly unlikely to me.
But I could be wrong and I often am.
