So, who is it that doesn’t want peace?
I did some reading on the ISW link posted by
@PommyMommy. One article in particular caught my eye, which I am linking.
Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. The United States must learn from the Minsk deal o
understandingwar.org
It’s written by their Russia expert and discusses the problems with the Minsk II deal and how to avoid them in the next deal. Read it and weep.
“Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. The United States must learn from the Minsk deal or risk a direct Russia-NATO conflict that puts American lives at risk.”
“Another weak deal today would validate Putin’s 2022 full-scale invasion and give Putin hope to gain more over time. Hope for Putin means more war. More war means a larger war: An absolved Russia that bears little or no cost for its invasion will want more and will rebuild its capability to do more. A larger war would mean a higher cost for the United States, risk to American lives, and risk of a catastrophic escalation.
The Trump Administration has a historic opportunity to break Russia’s cycle of overt war and war through “peace” in Ukraine. To do so, the United States must learn the lessons from the Minsk deal:
- Russia will seek to transfer the responsibility and cost for its war onto someone else’s balance sheet.
- Putin’s demands are stand-ins for his goals – controlling Ukraine and making the United States bend to Putin’s demands to create a world order that favors Russia.
- Putin will fight as long as he believes he can outlast the West and Ukraine. Ending the war requires stripping Putin of hope that he can destroy Ukraine as a state in his lifetime — militarily or through a “peace deal.”
- Russia can accept failure.”
This is a very long and detailed article, but I would encourage anyone who really wants to understand Russia’s intentions to read it. I am saving this article to refer to as the “peace process” plays out.
Why are you (and the author) directing this at the United States? Although they sometimes use the term “West”. The US has nothing to do with Minsk.
The war between Russia and Ukraine over the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Donbas region has been going on since the split up of the Soviet Union. The Minsk agreements involved those parties. The conflict in that region, between those two nations, has never stopped, won’t stop, and can’t be stopped.The conflict will likely continue well beyond the foreseeable future, regardless of who involves themselves. History since the split up of the USSR has shown this to be true
This has never been a war of Russia against the US. This is not a hill for the US to die on when a likely outcome is World War III - an event which may also lead to a whole new reality for UK, FR, and EU. UK, FR, and EU will look like Gaza
Here is a link to wiki Minsk. Where is the US mentioned at all? Stop trying to goad the US into WW III
Minsk agreements - Wikipedia cease to exist
When you (and/or the obvious warhawk author) says: “Another weak deal..” what do you (or what does he) mean? “Another weak deal” by whom? The US was not part of the “first” “weak deal”.
When the author uses the term “West” he should be using the term Europe. If anybody (other than Ukraine) needs to be sure they don’t negotiate “another weak deal” it is Ukraine, UK, FR, and EU.
The US was not at war with Russia leading up to Minsk, and the US did not negotiate a “weak Minsk deal” that we (while at present still not at war with Russia..) should be sure to avoid making a second time(?) - when we supposedly negotiate with them this time around. This is delusional. The US is not at war with Russia. Stop inserting the US
It is Ukraine and Russia that are at war. Imo, Ukraine and Russia will be engaged in conflict in this region, forever. If the author has a point at all re: any “deal”, it should be directed at Ukraine or the UK, FR, Germany, and EU. What does the US have to do with it? All the US is saying is we can’t keep sending 100 billion a year over there to fund a forever war
“The Trump administration has a historic opportunity to break Russia’s cycle of overt war and war through “peace in Ukraine”. What? Why is the Trump administration even mentioned? Ukraine and Russia are the ones negotiating (or should be). This is a straw man argument
The US is not at war with Russia. Whatever “negotiation” the US is (and has been) doing is to help end a war between Ukraine and Russia that the UK and FR and EU are either incapable or unwilling (or both) of ending. The US cannot fund a forever conflict
It is not the US’s responsibility to fight the Ukrainian - Russian war on behalf of Ukraine. There is no “Minsk” that the US was involved in that we should therefore, looking back, “learn from”. The US is not involved.
In 2022 Joe Biden said the US will not be involved. Nothing has changed. It is not the US’s war. We will not attempt to be keepers of a forever peace, that, even we wanted to and could afford to, is not possible. At all. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan.
The conflict in this region will never, ever, ever, cease. Even a minimum amount of research on the topic will tell you this. It is like thinking that the Hutu and Tutsi conflict in Africa can somehow be halted and then “backstopped”. It can’t.
What the uber hawkish neoconservative warmongering ISW website erroneously implies is that the US is one of the two parties involved in the conflict in the first place - and therefore needs to avoid making the same mistakes we made last time we negotiated. We made no mistakes last time as we didn’t negotiate last time as we weren't involved last time. This is absurd. It is nothing but a huge logical fallacy. A delusional straw man
The US has tried to help Ukraine and UK and FR and EU. Our efforts have been met with ingratitude and hate. It is not our war, as the current US administration is making clear. Stop attempting to insert the US into a forever war between Ukraine and Russia and risk starting WW III.
Jmo
www.bbc.co.uk
