Arizona - Coronavirus COVID-19

Death rate up to 2.1%. Daily high = 82 on July 15. Governor and State Health Director reported, at last press conference, that still only sick people are being tested.
 
Death rate steady at 2.1%. Daily high = 84 on July 17.
ICU occupancy at lowest level since June 15.
 
Death rate up to 2.2%. Still very little testing. All other metrics in decline.
 
Governor Ducey announced a plan for closed businesses to reopen, based on a Red/Yellow/Green system of metrics: ADHS

Part of this plan involved allowing "bars," (those establishments with type 6 and 7 liquor licenses) to reopen as restaurants. This will be on a county-by-county basis, depending on degree of Covid present in a given county (using the above mentioned color scheme.)
 
Much confusion being reported over reopening guidelines. Per azdhs dashboard, Yavapai and La Paz counties are in "Moderate" range, which would allow some businesses to reopen. Unclear when the "two weeks" in a given range are counted from, since the data has a 12 day lag.
 
Arizona school district cancels classes after teachers call out sick over coronavirus concerns

"We do not know the duration of these staff absences, and cannot yet confirm when in-person instruction may resume," the superintendent of the J.O. Combs Unified School District said.

A school district in Arizona has canceled its plans to reopen Monday after several teachers called out sick, leading to "insufficient staffing levels."

"We have received an overwhelming response from staff indicating that they do not feel safe returning to classrooms with students," Gregory Wyman, the superintendent of the J.O. Combs Unified School District, said in a letter to families posted online Friday. "In response, we have received a high volume of staff absences for Monday citing health and safety concerns."

All classes, including virtual learning, will be canceled, he said...
 
Does anybody else think that it's impossible for the positivity rate to have gone down so quickly and so much from 27 to 5 in just 3 weeks or so?
 
AZDHS Dashboard.

The key metric for businesses like bars and gyms remaining open is "Hospital COVID-like & influenza-like illness Surveillance." This particular metric remains in the "green" category for most all of the State. Some States (Illinois comes to mind, as I grew up there) use a system where a single metric (percent positive, for example) will automatically trigger elevated restrictions and business closures. AZ uses three metrics - Cases per 100/k, Percent Positive, and the above mentioned CLI Surveillance. All three metrics need to be in the "Substantial" zone for two straight weeks before any restrictions will be considered. This allows for plenty of notice, as opposed to one metric spiking and businesses waking up one morning to find they are forced to close.

As cases rise in AZ I have personally noticed a decline in the number of people eating in restaurants. Bars are still doing a healthy business. Paradise Valley School District is returning to remote learning the week of the 23rd. Each District has autonomy in this regard. Scottsdale, for example, handles this based on where there are outbreaks.
 
Arizona school district cancels classes after teachers call out sick over coronavirus concerns

"We do not know the duration of these staff absences, and cannot yet confirm when in-person instruction may resume," the superintendent of the J.O. Combs Unified School District said.

A school district in Arizona has canceled its plans to reopen Monday after several teachers called out sick, leading to "insufficient staffing levels."

"We have received an overwhelming response from staff indicating that they do not feel safe returning to classrooms with students," Gregory Wyman, the superintendent of the J.O. Combs Unified School District, said in a letter to families posted online Friday. "In response, we have received a high volume of staff absences for Monday citing health and safety concerns."

All classes, including virtual learning, will be canceled, he said...

Sounds like a wise decision. Do you know if students are going to classes in Oakland County or are they remote learning.
 
I don't believe there is an Oakland County in AZ. Do mean Michigan?
 
Study: 11% of Maricopa County residents has been infected with COVID-19

Interesting study. This means the mortality rate, for the county, is .7%. That includes all ages and the early stages, when therapeutics where less effective.

State Superintendent Kathy Hoffman calls on Governor Ducey to enact more COVID-19 measures

This piece is a fascinating look at the politicization of the pandemic. Superintendent Hoffman co-hosted a presser, last week, where the Director of Arizona Department of Health Services, Dr. Cara Christ, explained that 100% of Arizona is covered by some form of Mask Mandate - and most places are under several overlapping mandates. Yet notice Superintendent Hoffman's first request - a statewide mask mandate. She goes on to lament that messaging is no longer effective. In my opinion she should look at her own incorrect and misleading call for a mask mandate (which already exists) as one possible reason that people have stopped listening.

Paradise Valley School District in Phoenix is going back to remote learning on Monday, until after the holidays. Every school district in AZ is free to do what they feel is best for student and staff safety, so calls for additional State-wide action are confusing.
 
COVID hurts businesses but brings growth

“Developers from New York and Boston are so optimistic about Tucson’s post-COVID future they are backing a 20 story tower downtown to fill with a combination of office space, retail and residential.

Rio Nuevo and other development organizations say companies are looking past COVID with plans to grow into cities like Tucson, that are less tightly packed but still have strong resources and amenities.

But Rio Nuevo Chair Fletcher McCusker worries COVID is killing some of the culture that makes Tucson attractive----forcing local restaurants and entertainment sites to shut down---and maybe leaving them too weak to re-open.“
-more at link
 
Governor Ducey to hold press conference Wednesday afternoon, expected to address COVID-19

Governor to hold a presser today. First in quite a while. He is under tremendous pressure from certain members of the media and the Mayor of Phoenix to issue a State-wide mask mandate, even though virtually the entire State is already covered by mask mandates. The fear in the hospitality industry is that he will impose restrictions in the absence of any government funding or support for affected businesses.
 
Watching Governor Ducey's presser. Main take away: No new restrictions.
 
Latest AZ Metrics

One interesting take away from the Governor's presser was the idea that our case increase could be tied to what we call "snow birds." We have a substantial population of retirees who spend the winter here, coming from places that have seen explosive case growth, recently. He is instituting increased testing and screening at airports.

He made another comment that I found interesting. He talked about the two extremes that he has to deal with - those that want everything closed, and those that think the virus is a hoax. By saying that he, and the vast majority of citizens, are in neither camp, he seemed to signal that he is not entertaining closures and that those calling for closures are just as "fringe" as virus deniers.

(I find it fascinating that the largest cities in the U.S. are under such different rules, with similar metrics. My friend's son's youth hockey team can't practice indoors Chicago, while I can sit in a bar and watch a band in Phoenix. Amazed that's not a bigger story.)
 
Tucson City Council approves mandatory nightly curfew to start Friday

"“We appreciate the city convening this conversation around steps that can be taken to mitigate the toll of this third wave as we await the vaccine. However, we believe that the curfew, whether it’s an 8 p.m. or 10 p.m. curfew, falls short, in terms of its effectiveness to be able to stop the spread, flatten the curve and keep our hospital from being pushed beyond our capacity,” Rich said."

This reminds me of the scene in the old sitcom M**advertiser censored*S*H where the hospital in under attack:
Major Burns: "Do something! Anything!"
Captain Pierce: "I agree with Frank - let's do 'anything.'"
 
No additional mitigation for Arizona. Press is apoplectic.
 

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