Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #102

[Lilibet]

The doubling time is really, really disturbing at 2.6 days. Doing the math (I rounded up to 3 days to make the numbers round) this is how fast it will take over:

Dec 16 - 6%
Dec 19 - 12%
Dec 22 - 24%
Dec 25 - 48%
Dec 28 - 96%

And with a stupid high Rt of 4.0 the number of cases by New Year's Eve is going to be incredible. And will positively explode the first and second weeks of January, two weeks after the Christmas and New Year's parties. ugh

IMO

Thanks for this @CharlestonGal. Scary stuff! And even if omicron doesn’t make people as sick as delta, they will still be sick and unable to work. So we should be expecting diminished services, food deliveries, medical care, etc, etc. Without hoarding, it would be wise to make sure we are stocked up (yet again) on food and supplies and make sure our friends and neighbors who can’t are taken care of.

For almost two years we have subscribed to and relied on a meal prep service (not local). This month our ten meals (five each) have been canceled for two weeks in a row because of either delivery or kitchen issues. I suspect there are supply issues, and/or not enough workers to cook and deliver (a different company delivers). It will be “interesting” to see what happens the third week.

 

[acutename]

It's milder (not mild) compared to delta.
But not all that much milder. Only 29% fewer hospitalizations.
Data indicate omicron is milder, better at evading vaccines | AP News

so why are we not just in lock down again? >sigh< Is anyone paying attention?

and then we have: DR. ANGELIQUE COETZEE: I alerted the wider world to Omicron - and I believe Britain is overreacting | Daily Mail Online

"The UK Government's handling of what Boris Johnson warned will be a 'tidal wave' of Omicron infections verges on hysteria.

With predictions of one million cases by the end of the month and concerns about the NHS being overwhelmed with up to 10,000 hospitalisations per day, I gather there is talk of Christmas again being cancelled and a possible New Year lockdown.

Yet you only have to look at the picture in South Africa, where the world's first known cases of Omicron were spotted, to realise this reaction is out of all proportion to the risks posed by this variant.
[requoted from Major Hoople above]

so what is it? really dangerous or no big deal? (rolling my eyes)

 

[CharlestonGal]

so why are we not just in lock down again? >sigh< Is anyone paying attention?

and then we have: DR. ANGELIQUE COETZEE: I alerted the wider world to Omicron - and I believe Britain is overreacting | Daily Mail Online

"The UK Government's handling of what Boris Johnson warned will be a 'tidal wave' of Omicron infections verges on hysteria.

With predictions of one million cases by the end of the month and concerns about the NHS being overwhelmed with up to 10,000 hospitalisations per day, I gather there is talk of Christmas again being cancelled and a possible New Year lockdown.

Yet you only have to look at the picture in South Africa, where the world's first known cases of Omicron were spotted, to realise this reaction is out of all proportion to the risks posed by this variant.
[requoted from Major Hoople above]

so what is it? really dangerous or no big deal? (rolling my eyes)

Yeah, because South Africa and the UK are totally the same. Not the least of which, the median age in South Africa is 27.

 

[CrimeAway]

Now that is a very good question-- believe me I am glad to be vaccinated
but I am disappointed for example that effectiveness of the vaccine wanes
so quickly

Effectiveness against what? That's the question.

Infection?
Disease?
Severe Disease?
Hospitalization?
Death?

I think it's important to quantify what we are measuring effectiveness against. JMO.

Polio vaccine does not prevent against infection, only against paralysis. (IMO).

 

[Lilibet]

Yeah, because South Africa and the UK are totally the same. Not the least of which, the median age in South Africa is 27.

And South Africa didn’t like its citizens being discriminated against by other countries. She has been saying the same thing since we all heard about Omicron. And while she may be right, even if omicron is less serious, people are still sick and unable to work as I pointed out a few posts back. This will disrupt our lives a lot more than delta has. JMO

 

[CrimeAway]

Striking Antibody Evasion Manifested by the Omicron Variant of SARS-CoV-2

We found B.1.1.529 [Omicron] to be markedly resistant to neutralization by serum not only from convalescent patients, but also from individuals vaccinated with one of the four widely used COVID-19 vaccines. Even serum from persons vaccinated and boosted with mRNA-based vaccines exhibited substantially diminished neutralizing activity against B.1.1.529. By evaluating a panel of monoclonal antibodies to all known epitope clusters on the spike protein, we noted that the activity of 18 of the 19 antibodies tested were either abolished or impaired, including ones currently authorized or approved for use in patients. In addition, we also identified four new spike mutations (S371L, N440K, G446S, and Q493R) that confer greater antibody resistance to B.1.1.529.

IMO, neutralization refers to protection against infection.
Search "neutralizing immunity" for more info. JMO

 

[CharlestonGal]

Effectiveness against what? That's the question.

Infection?
Disease?
Severe Disease?
Hospitalization?
Death?

I think it's important to quantify what we are measuring effectiveness against. JMO.

Polio vaccine does not prevent against infection, only against paralysis. (IMO).

Those questions will be answered as quickly as possible in the coming 3-4 weeks as Omicron declares itself. jmo

 

[anneg]

Dr. Hotez on what feeds vaccine refusal: “Anti-science aggression”

Excerpt:
People can call the myths and misconceptions spread about COVID-19 vaccines misinformation, but Dr. Hotez views it as an opposition to science. He is dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine, and professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine.

He talked about this “anti-science aggression” and what medical professionals can do to offset it as part of a virtual education session, “Medical misinformation gone viral: The science of misinformation spread and how to combat it,” held during the November 2021 AMA Section Meetings.

“It’s not fun for us to talk about, and as physicians and physician-scientists, it’s not something we’re trained to think about,” Dr. Hotez said, “but increasingly we have to come to terms that this is a major killer in the United States and we have to begin chipping away at the problem.”

 

[Satchie]

"We have to get comfortable with fully vaccinated folks testing positive, that's going to be our new normal," Gupta told the Today show hosts. "But people should not worry about that because the purpose of vaccines is not to prevent a positive test or a respiratory virus like omicron, it's to keep you out of the hospital, and that's exactly what they're doing."

With respiratory viruses, we can't ever prevent a positive test or mild symptoms," he said. "They're totally okay and that's what we expect. The vaccines are doing exactly what they should be for respiratory viruses; they're keeping people out of the hospital and that's a success."
Doctor Says Fully Vaccinated People Are Going to Test Positive with Omicron: 'Our New Normal'

Dr. Vin Gupta is a Harvard-trained lung specialist who’s spent over 15 years working for organizations like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to improve public health.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...UQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2jEgRCl1yJ51_zk3b5vL3A

 

[Cool Cats]

Omicron spreads 70 times faster in airways than delta but 10 times slower in lungs

They discovered that the virus was capable of replicating far faster in the bronchus - the tubes that attach the windpipe to the lungs - with more infection present after just 24 hours than delta produced after two days.

However, the research showed the virus struggled to reproduce efficiently in lung tissue, which may explain why people are experiencing cold-like symptoms, but few cases are progressing to serious disease.

The first major real-world study into the new variant published by South African scientists earlier this week found the variant is likely to be 23 per cent less severe than delta with vaccines still offering good protection

 

[Cool Cats]

Effectiveness against what? That's the question.

Infection?
Disease?
Severe Disease?
Hospitalization?
Death?

I think it's important to quantify what we are measuring effectiveness against. JMO.

Polio vaccine does not prevent against infection, only against paralysis. (IMO).

Interesting.

Wanes against what exactly? In other words over time the vaccine works less against the virus in what way exactly?

My guess?

Vaccine fights off covid enough to keep you from having symptoms but then wanes so you do get symptoms but not enough to be hospitalized.

Booster needed before you do get symptoms bad enough to be hospitalized.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Interesting.

Wanes against what exactly? In other words over time the vaccine works less against the virus in what way exactly?

My guess?

Vaccine fights off covid enough to keep you from having symptoms but then wanes so you do get symptoms but not enough to be hospitalized.

Booster needed before you do get symptoms bad enough to be hospitalized.

The vaccine does not create great mucosal immunity. Meaning when SARS 2 is inhaled from contaminated air, the virus particles will initially be trapped by the layer of mucus that lines the nasopharynx. This happens in vaccinated and unvaccinated people and will return a PCR+. This just shows the virus is present; it cannot determine if you are actually infected (the virus has entered your cells and is replicating).

Since systemic vaccination does not provide great mucosal immunity it is quite likely SARS 2 will penetrate into the underlying mucosa in the nasopharynx and begin to replicate, even in the vaccinated. Though delayed, the systemic immunity will eventually come to the rescue and clear your infection before it invades the actual respiratory system (trachea, bronchii and lungs). So you have mild symptoms at that point, and are probably infectious to others, but don't get sick enough to go to hospital or be admitted. As your antibodies wane, or you confront a variant that partially evades your antibodies, it may invade further and cause additional symptoms. Still hopefully not enough to land you in hospital. But it does happen. It is happening.

But even if you do land in hospital, you are still at an advantage over the unvaccinated person. You at least have some antibodies of your own to participate in some aspect of the battle and you will have that edge that unvaccinated people do not have. All imo.

 

[Cool Cats]

The vaccine does not create great mucosal immunity. Meaning when SARS 2 is inhaled from contaminated air, the virus particles will initially be trapped by the layer of mucus that lines the nasopharynx. This happens in vaccinated and unvaccinated people and will return a PCR+. This just shows the virus is present; it cannot determine if you are actually infected (the virus has entered your cells and is replicating).

Since systemic vaccination does not provide great mucosal immunity it is quite likely SARS 2 will penetrate into the underlying mucosa in the nasopharynx and begin to replicate, even in the vaccinated. Though delayed, the systemic immunity will eventually come to the rescue and clear your infection before it invades the actual respiratory system (trachea, bronchii and lungs). So you have mild symptoms at that point, and are probably infectious to others, but don't get sick enough to go to hospital or be admitted. As your antibodies wane, or you confront a variant that partially evades your antibodies, it may invade further and cause additional symptoms. Still hopefully not enough to land you in hospital. But it does happen. It is happening.

But even if you do land in hospital, you are still at an advantage over the unvaccinated person. You at least have some antibodies of your own to participate in some aspect of the battle and you will have that edge that unvaccinated people do not have. All imo

Thanks. Makes sense.

What do you mean exactly here:

"You at least have some antibodies of your own to participate in some aspect of the battle and you will have that edge that unvaccinated people do not have."

 

[CharlestonGal]

Thanks. Makes sense.

What do you mean exactly here:

"You at least have some antibodies of your own to participate in some aspect of the battle and you will have that edge that unvaccinated people do not have."

I mean even if your antibodies have waned somewhat or the variant evades them somewhat you still have some level of protection fighting for you. It may not be 95% or 80% or even 60%. But that is miles better than 0%. And you will mount additional new antibodies much, much faster than a person who is unvaccinated. jmo

 

[Cool Cats]

I mean even if your antibodies have waned somewhat or the variant evades them somewhat you still have some level of protection fighting for you. It may not be 95% or 80% or even 60%. But that is miles better than 0%. And you will mount additional new antibodies much, much faster than a person who is unvaccinated. jmo

And you will mount additional new antibodies much, much faster than a person who is unvaccinated.

Important part, thanks.

 

[tarabull]

Omicron ‘markedly resistant’ to COVID vaccines, booster shots, Columbia University study says

 

[MimosaMornings]

Florida man kicked off United Airlines flight for wearing women’s underwear as COVID-19 mask — Fox News

 

[WichitaFalls]

Florida man kicked off United Airlines flight for wearing women’s underwear as COVID-19 mask — Fox News

We seem to be surrounded by obnoxious fools. Not even close to a good look. I've never hit anyone in my 67 years but I'd like to smack this guy right upside the head.

 

[tabitha111]

life goes on in my retirement community...our director will NOT close the dining room unless 20 people have Covid at the same time...(she says this is what the CDC recommends! Unbelievable!) Very few of us wear masks, in fact there are only 6 of us that do on a regular basis. I fear Omicron will race through here after the holidays when most folks travel to other places or visit family. I am staying home this Christmas, I did go visit family for Thanksgiving but the situation was not the same as now.
We here in the community are all triple-vaxxed btw. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Biden administration to push for 'test-to-stay' policy to keep kids in school (nbcnews.com)

Reducing mandatory quarantines after a Covid exposure would help prevent absenteeism and learning loss that occurs with virtual learning, officials said.

The Biden administration will unveil a new strategy Friday to keep children in the classroom, according to two administration sources familiar with the plan.

The move comes as some school districts are once again going virtual in an attempt to avoid the worst of the omicron variant.

The strategy includes a "test to stay" approach: Instead of mandatory quarantines for students identified as close contacts of a Covid-positive peer, those students could remain in school if they test negative for the virus at least twice during the week after an exposure.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also expected to release two reports Friday highlighting school districts that have used the "test to stay" approach successfully...