IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 #32

[sammi89]

Just want to say that at times I've found myself convinced that a certain POI is guilty (first CR, then JR/DB, then all three plus MB, etc.) Each time I have to remind myself that I don't actually know the truth, and my view is based on various media accounts combined with impressions I have of each POI. (For example, the look on CR's face in his mug shot. I mean, I have to say that for a while I just thought: that guy looks like a frat boy predator.) The reality is that I can be biased based on my impressions and own experiences, and to be objective, I have to return to square one - see things from another point of view, and lose my admittedly somewhat emotional attachments to certain theoretical outcomes.

For all the reasons, I think it's a good idea also to consider JW, with fresh perspective, if only on the search for something new we all may have missed.

One of my main motivators in interest in the case is the innocence of some of the POIs. Whichever ones (and hopefully there must be a few out of 10 or so POIs) are innocent, they sure have been put through a hell of time over this. Just last night on the FB "we want the truth" page a link to CR's employer was posted, and then group members were encouraged to leave reviews (that can't be deleted) on the employer's FB page. Now, it's personally hard for me to have any sympathy for CR, but let's just imagine that his story is true and he's innocent. I have to say that suspecting someone based on just believing so hard it must be true (as it seems some of the more outspoken members of the FB group do) is a dangerous and murky road that I consciously try to avoid.

Anyway, all that to say that I try for neutrality because the reality is that I simply don't know. I think stepping back and considering other possibilities is a great idea, and I've actually enjoyed stretching myself to see things from a different perspective. It's a great reminder that I sometimes discount things I should pay attention to. </tangent.>

I agree with this.

I feel a lot for some people who have been brought into the case and perhaps have offered all they can, yet are often scrutinized - HT, ZO, ZC, AB, DR, etc.

As for the POIs, I really have very little sympathy for CR and MB. Silence on JR and JW's part is more understandable given their status: the last person to admittedly see LS and LS' boyfriend, respectively, but silence from CR and MB bothers me because they get to point the finger at someone else.

The problem for 5N, IMO, is that I have a hard time believing they would all cover for each other for so long unless they are all responsible, which goes to your point that some, if not all of them, might be innocent (of her death, at least). I have heard of people dying from an OD at parties because people argued about whether they should call or not and failed to call until it was too late, and maybe that's what happened here, but even in that situation, why not call anyway and say they found her that way? They didn't realize what was happening? IMO, I think an OD alone is possible, but if they are responsible, it makes me wonder if there was some kind of physical element, like a sexual assault, that played into any decision on their part not to get help. Although, in that case, I still seriously question if all 3 were in it together or whether it was a different combination, like JR or JR and guest(s) or LS circled back to CR's.

I've already listed my issues with JW getting there undetected, especially because his sleeping-at-home-alibi would be so easy to prove wrong (all it would take is one person/camera or maybe even his phone records!), but even if he did find her somehow and she died suddenly, I am still skeptical he wouldn't call 911 for the reasons I've already stated: intoxicated, heart condition, bruised face, etc. etc. Maybe he thought he would be blamed for her bruised face? Even so, he knew he wasn't responsible for that, and IMO, he would probably hope that calling 911 might result in LS being revived? JMO, but I really think if he found her and she died with him, it would be the result of a confrontation + him physically harming her. Again JMO!

If she did leave and/or was kicked out at 5N, there's always the possibility that some stranger grabbed her and/or someone who knew her and hasn't been publicly named. JMO, but I think this is the most likely scenario if she did, in fact, actually leave 5N. It's the suckiest to speculate on because it could literally be anyone, but I just find it more likely than JW getting to her at that hour and without being detected. JMO though! I am a little hopeful that if there is a strong possibility of a stranger abduction, that whoever it is, IS on surveillance in the area around that hour and/or was seen by someone and just happened to be out of view when they grabbed LS. The KT guy who commented about recognizing LS because he had seen her around really makes me wonder if others had noticed her around and decided to prey on her when the opportunity presented itself.

 

[akh]

This is the second post where someone has questioned whether I/other posters personally know JW because we think that it is unlikely based on the available information. I don't question whether you know 5N personally because you have proposed other theories/made excuses for them/etc. so let's move on.

It would appear the main reason there's not much available information about JW is he's cooperated even less than 5N.

If 5N would've stayed as quiet as JW has I don't know what we'd be talking about at this point.

If not 5N, what are your thoughts? If you have a theory involving him, again, please post it.

I'm repeating myself but here goes...
A theory:
Jealous boyfriend. Girlfriend is out partying with guys. May not be the first time so things could be building. Either hears she's out with CR 'again' (after Indy 500 meeting (and do we know there wasn't any other meetings between the Indy 500 and this night?)) or suspects as much and goes looking for her. If he suspects CR as a suitor then he seems to have known where to find them. At 4AM not being seen by someone is not surprising. Especially if he's trying to catch her and CR out and about or waiting to see if she's there and what time she leaves the apartments. Which all means he could be trying to stay somewhat unseen anyway. Sitting in his car within eye-shot maybe?

Maybe in his mind he's planning just to watch for her and not make contact but instead thinks he will try and catch her in a lie later since he'll know where she was. Or maybe he had no idea what he was going to do when he saw her and/or CR. Cross that bridge when he comes to it. Maybe his target was CR to begin with? Or maybe without his Dad he wasn't brave enough to face CR by himself.

So.... He's PO'ed at her... he's PO'ed at CR... One or the other or both. He'd been expecting to see her that night and she ignored him. Then at about 4:30AM she comes staggering out of JR's apartment. Totally messed up.

So in his mind he thinks instead of her staying home and being a 'good girl' and talking and texting with him (or meeting up with him), working on their relationship, she went out and got messed up with 'these guys'. Maybe even 'again'. Maybe in his mind he started coming up with some choice names for her as someone who'd do that and began dehumanizing her in his mind.

He's mad. He grabs her and forces her somewhere to 'talk'. Maybe he puts her in his car if he has it. She isn't cooperative and either too drunk, or simply not interested and this makes it worse. Maybe he even drives them far from the area with her in the car to some out of the way place (which would explain why the assumed 'ground zero' of 5N hasn't yielded a smoking gun for LE). And at some point he just totally snaps. They could be outside the car at this point (if the car was used in the first place). He could push her and cause an injury. Punch her. Or even choke her. Or she has a medical issue in the midst of him being rough with her.

-
Sure, it's all speculation. He could've been home in bed. But apparently his alibi isn't strong based on what the PI's (and later, parents) have said.

This theory is simple. Doesn't require a conspiracy. Doesn't require a web of lies among a circle of friends and acquaintances that's expanded to other states (DB and maybe more?). One person (JW) would hold the key. Statistically this is a high probability scenario in a crime like this (jealous significant other or ex). Doesn't have the hurdle of wondering why someone just didn't call an ambulance in a medical emergency. Jealousy as a motive is not a stretch. Doesn't require burner phones, drug dealers, connections, higher ups or lower level people to complete the crime. And even explains nagging issues like no smoking gun apparently found at 5N.

Occam's Razor.

But of course we can't ignore the strangeness of the night and the 5N connection. But if they are telling the truth, at least the gist of it that she walked out the door, then a scenario like the above statistically would be high on the list as a possibility.

I was only commenting on your POI 1A and 1B, which were 5N and JW. Stranger abduction would also be very possible if she left.

Stranger abduction would be a possibility. But it's not statistically high so before we could get to stranger abduction (assuming there's not a pattern of abductions or incidents that could escalate to an abduction) then we'd need to know JW's alibi is solid. Until his alibi is confirmed I cannot imagine 5N and JW not remaining equal PsOI in my view.

 

[sammi89]

Stranger abduction would be a possibility. But it's not statistically high so before we could get to stranger abduction (assuming there's not a pattern of abductions or incidents that could escalate to an abduction) then we'd need to know JW's alibi is solid. Until his alibi is confirmed I cannot imagine 5N and JW remaining equal PsOI in my view.

Isn't refusing to consider stranger abduction because of statistics the same close-minded thinking just complained about?

Just because it isn't statistically high, doesn't mean it didn't happen here.

 

[akh]

Isn't refusing to consider stranger abduction because of statistics the same close-minded thinking just complained about?

Just because it isn't statistically high, doesn't mean it didn't happen here.

I never said I was refusing to consider stranger abduction.

Are you saying it's either 5N or stranger abduction? Anything to avoid considering JW? Are we to skip over that step in statistical probabilities?

Moreover, what is there left to discuss about stranger abduction scenarios that haven't already been discussed?

 

[sammi89]

I never said I was refusing to consider stranger abduction.

it's not statistically high so before we could get to stranger abduction(assuming there's not a pattern of abductions or incidents that could escalate to an abduction) then we'd need to know JW's alibi is solid

I'm not sure why we have to solidify JW's alibi before getting to a stranger abduction. None of their alibis are really solidified, whether you are considering 5N or JW. If it is true she left, then "stranger" abduction IS a possibility, and solidifying JW's alibi shouldn't preclude consideration of that angle either.

Are you saying it's either 5N or stranger abduction? Anything to avoid considering JW? Are we to skip over that step in statistical probabilities?

If you look back at my most recent posts, several have considered the JW angle as well. I have also posted links to statistics on harm caused by significant others and acknowledged that possibility. JW wasn't the only one with a romantic interest in LS either, though.

I have qualified a lot of my statements regarding JW as saying that IMO it is unlikely, but that is JMO. Saying that doesn't mean that I think it is impossible, just that I find it unlikely. Regardless, I have done exactly as you asked - considered the JW angle, so I'm not sure why you think I'm avoiding any consideration of him at all.

Moreover, what is there left to discuss about stranger abduction scenarios that haven't already been discussed?

If we are going to take that statement seriously, what more is there to discuss about JW, either? Really, there are 32 threads on LS. Sure, there has been more focus on 5N, but JW has definitely been discussed over the course of these 32 threads as well. The jealous, jilted BF is nothing new to the discussion.

 

[VeryVeritas]

Isn't refusing to consider stranger abduction because of statistics the same close-minded thinking just complained about?

Just because it isn't statistically high, doesn't mean it didn't happen here.

Well, the problem has always been that NOTHING points to anyone EXCEPT the 5N people. If you have other evidence that points elsewhere that would change everything. But so far, there just isn't any.

 

[VeryVeritas]

RE: the POI list, I'd guess its something like this (in no particular order):

JR
CR
JW
MB
ZO
AB
DB
DR
+it has been mentioned that JR had guestS, so it could be one or two others who were visiting.

I don't think LE would publicly update a list of POIs, so this list has been the same for a long time, and we aren't likely to know if its changed. Other than the white truck LE hasn't openly cleared anyone, IMO they're intentionally not letting much information out.

THEY ARE ALL MALE! The absence of females that night is rather interesting.

 

[VeryVeritas]

Possibly also of interest:

SCHEDULING ORDER: Having approved the Case Management Plan as amended, the Court hereby sets the final pretrial conference on April 8, 2015 at 1:30 p.m., in Room 330, and the jury trial to begin on May 4, 2015 at 9:00 a.m., in Courtroom 344, Birch Bayh Federal Building and United States Courthouse, 46 East Ohio Street, Indianapolis, Indiana. Signed by Judge Tanya Walton Pratt on 4/23/2014.(TRG) (Entered: 04/23/2014)


I looked at copies of the witness lists for the two defendants, and even though they list the right to use people named in the other's list, the similarities on those specifically named consist mainly of the names oft repeated here: JR, JW, CR, MB, ZO, DR, DB, HT, (and an AF that hasn't been mentioned before). Otherwise their lists differ in the other ten or so names along with generalities such as members of BPD and employees of Kilroys.

Anyone know who AF is?

 

[sammi89]

Well, the problem has always been that NOTHING points to anyone EXCEPT the 5N people. If you have other evidence that points elsewhere that would change everything. But so far, there just isn't any.

I'm not saying there is. I was just trying to point out that if we're going to consider options outside of 5N like akh has requested, stranger abductions should be a very real possibility, not just the JW angle.

IMO, I tend to think that 5N (whether one or all or some weird combination of them) were involved based on what is available. Again, JMO!

 

[VeryVeritas]

I definitely agree that very little appears to be logical based on the explanations known.

I agree. I actually am more surprised that they didn't call a cab. IMO, the only reason not to call a cab at that point is money and these aren't people that are necessarily going to be hung up on letting LS borrow a few bucks for a cab ride home. It wasn't far so it wouldn't be expensive. They wouldn't have had to leave the comfort of their apartment, so it would have been convenient for them. If they are going to take the time to call others, why not call someone who is guaranteed to answer and will definitely take her home?

1) It's not rational to think that LS walked out of 5N.
a) Shots with ZC before 12:30
b) Klonopin with DR around 12:30
c) More drinking and ? at JR's prior to leaving for Kilroy's
d) More drinking and ? at Kilroy's
e) Can't stand properly at SW
f) Slams head on concrete
g) Falls face first, unblocked as if unconscious (last time officially seen)
h) QT Syndrome
I) LS weighed only 95 lbs (Unless all 95 lbs were liver, the above sequence is rather incapacitating if not deadly).

2) It would take only a few minutes to walk her home 2 blocks.
Seriously...

3) Cabs don't normally transport comatose or deceased persons.

 

[VeryVeritas]

BBM,
1) but according to reports LE found white powder in Lauren's room. Kind of makes me wonder what JW would have been seeking to remove, if he didn't remove that. IDK if that indicates that he didn't move anything at all, or that he was more interesting in moving something else.

2) IA, it doesn't seem logical. Sometimes I wonder if the mistake we're all making on this thread is thinking logically. This whole thing just seems so off and weird that I really have trouble with logically reconciling it.

3) I could not agree more. How long did it take him to make those calls? He wasn't that far away from her apartment, he could have just walked her over there. If she was in enough trouble that he felt she needed to be driven why on earth would he just let her walk or stumble away? Spending several minutes calling to have someone pick a friend up when it would take you five minutes to walk her home, and then letting her walk off on her own, just seems suspicious to me.

1) Really? It was only white powder?? I distinctly remember it being reported as cocaine. (no links, just 3 years of this... )

2) Think however you like, but it must fit the facts right?

3) There you go thinking logically again...

 

[VeryVeritas]

From what I've read, I think it's safe to assume that all the named POIs were extremely intoxicated at 3 or 4am that morning. I see no reason to think that their actions would have been logical or rational.

I think this also might explain the conflicting and changing stories from 5N - they were too f__ed up to remember what happened. And maybe JR didn't walk her home because he was too wasted to walk himself.

On the other hand, young men (and women) have a well-deserved reputation for doing incredibly stupid things when drunk/drugged. Maybe the 5N boys (and/or their guests) did something incredibly stupid (hid her body _add cause of death here_) and got incredibly lucky (that her body has not been found).

On the third had, and as I have suggested before, the boyfriend remains a prime suspect in my mind. He has a strong motive and a weak alibi. I'm sure at least one of his frat bros would have texted to him that his girl was out with another guy. If she did manage to leave 5N, he could well have been on his way there or even waiting outside. He had a car, and there would have been few or no cameras in the residential neighborhood between 5N and his house. Oh yeah, and the bag of white powder in LS's apartment - it could have been planted (not overlooked) to suggest heart-related OD so as to throw off the investigators.

- John

Sorry John, that doesn't wash.
The reason is that JR gave a very extensive and logical account of how he tested LS's ability to walk, etc... He spent time observing her intoxication, injuries, possessions, etc... quite a bit of details. He made it very clear that HE was thinking logically. MB who called JR and brought LS over was also thinking logically.

Then in the recent civil case, JR explained that MB was present at his place also. Quite a bit of time passed. MB was capable of bringing LS from his place to JR's. Somehow they were both capable of all of this activity but were not capable of walking 2 blocks? nah....

She was most likely unconscious and THAT would have meant carrying her 2 blocks. But then, at some point she wasn't even breathing. Then someone had to carry her somewhere.

 

[VeryVeritas]

I'm not saying there is. I was just trying to point out that if we're going to consider options outside of 5N like akh has requested, stranger abductions should be a very real possibility, not just the JW angle.

IMO, I tend to think that 5N (whether one or all or some weird combination of them) were involved based on what is available. Again, JMO!

Not at this stage, not really...

Look, we of course do not know what evidence LE has.
But based on the public evidence and that which is coming forth from the civil case, what do we see???

1) Stranger abduction is exceedingly rare - that is a fact!
There is absolutely NOTHING to point to this.
2) JW - significant other (if foul play is involved) is usually the #1 most likely.
Since there is not one shred of anything to point to JW, it is losing reasonableness.

so that leaves...
3) 5N people!
From the beginning to now, evidence has only grown that something is WRONG here.

how can a defense attorney whose job it is to create reasonable doubt, create reasonable doubt here? Doubt of 5N involvement at this stage is UNREASONABLE.

 

[Ixchel13]

Its not a double standard. We know that Lauren was with JR, MB and CR at points during that night. We know that she and CR are on video going back to his house and she could not stand. We know that JR and MB were the last people who saw her prior to her disappearance.
If any evidence comes out that implicates JW, I'm willing to bet that most people on here would reconsider theories and judge him with the same standard the 5N boys have been judged. At this point you're comparing apples and oranges. We don't know anything about JW's actions that night, but we do know that the 5N boys all interacted with Lauren, and that they were with her when she was in visibly bad shape.

people aren't apples and oranges. I don't believe LE has made him a POI just because he was her boyfriend. If someone is a POI, that means
we sleuth them. Akh is not defending the 5N POIs, just adding an apple to the rest of the apples.

 

[Ixchel13]

[/b]

I'm not sure why we have to solidify JW's alibi before getting to a stranger abduction. None of their alibis are really solidified, whether you are considering 5N or JW. If it is true she left, then "stranger" abduction IS a possibility, and solidifying JW's alibi shouldn't preclude consideration of that angle either.




If you look back at my most recent posts, several have considered the JW angle as well. I have also posted links to statistics on harm caused by significant others and acknowledged that possibility. JW wasn't the only one with a romantic interest in LS either, though.

I have qualified a lot of my statements regarding JW as saying that IMO it is unlikely, but that is JMO. Saying that doesn't mean that I think it is impossible, just that I find it unlikely. Regardless, I have done exactly as you asked - considered the JW angle, so I'm not sure why you think I'm avoiding any consideration of him at all.



If we are going to take that statement seriously, what more is there to discuss about JW, either? Really, there are 32 threads on LS. Sure, there has been more focus on 5N, but JW has definitely been discussed over the course of these 32 threads as well. The jealous, jilted BF is nothing new to the discussion.

there's really nothing we can say or do to solidify JW's or any of their alibis.
In fact, is that what we even try to do here?

 

[Ixchel13]

THEY ARE ALL MALE! The absence of females that night is rather interesting.

Not just interesting--totally unbelievable, as in, probably not true

 

[Ixchel13]

Sorry John, that doesn't wash.
The reason is that JR gave a very extensive and logical account of how he tested LS's ability to walk, etc... He spent time observing her intoxication, injuries, possessions, etc... quite a bit of details. He made it very clear that HE was thinking logically. MB who called JR and brought LS over was also thinking logically.

Then in the recent civil case, JR explained that MB was present at his place also. Quite a bit of time passed. MB was capable of bringing LS from his place to JR's. Somehow they were both capable of all of this activity but were not capable of walking 2 blocks? nah....

She was most likely unconscious and THAT would have meant carrying her 2 blocks. But then, at some point she wasn't even breathing. Then someone had to carry her somewhere.

if you can speculate this broadly, why disagree with anyone's else speculations?

 

[Ixchel13]

If JW got Lauren's phone from Kilroy's, texts/msgs received on the phone could have been cause for alarm.

If Lauren was so intoxicated at Kilroy's that she left her phone and shoes, fell multiple times while walking/sitting outside, and was also present for and allegedly the reason for the altercation at Smallwood it makes sense that some friends or acquaintances may have left texts or messages on her phone regarding her condition after hearing bits and pieces through the grapevine. Most people probably wouldn't have known Lauren had lost her phone and may think they could get in touch with her.

IE: "Hey Lauren, I heard from ___ that a fight went down at Smallwood, are you okay?"
"Heard you are super plastered tonight!"
"My friend ___ found your ID last in the alley last night!"
etc, etc.

Just picking out random things that could have been heard by acquaintances through the grapevine that may have alarmed JW a bit in addition to the fact that Lauren didn't appear to have arrived home or contacted him or her her roommates. We also know that he was aware of LS's heart condition.

Wonder if any messages like this could have been on Lauren's phone, and thus caused JW to become alarmed much faster.

If those friends were calling her, and they really cared, don't you think they would call JW? nd maybe they did mention JW on the phone. Perhaps someone even texted, "JW is looking for you" and he told LE he was asleep.
Maybe the Spierer's are actually asking for Lauren's phone records as well, we.don't.know.

 

[AbbeyR]

If we are going to take that statement seriously, what more is there to discuss about JW, either? Really, there are 32 threads on LS. Sure, there has been more focus on 5N, but JW has definitely been discussed over the course of these 32 threads as well. The jealous, jilted BF is nothing new to the discussion.

Seriously. This exact conversation has unfolded so many times. The jilted boyfriend scenario, the suspicion over Lauren being reported missing too early, and then frustration on behalf of a few people that the conversation fizzles out at that point. But it fizzles out because there is absolutely nothing to go on, other than a general statistic that intimate partners are likely to be involved in crime, and totally imagined scenarios about what JW may or may not have felt.

There's nothing to 'poke holes in' because there's no evidence at all that he was around or with Lauren. We can choose to ignore all of the evidence we have in this case and all of the conflicting statements from the POI at 5 N to say there's a possibility he could have been involved somehow. And then there's nothing more to say.

 

[Mahouston69]

Three years together, JW knew of her medical condition and habits and was always "taking care of her" and possibly, most likely was told who she was with (since that incident occurred before he said he went to "sleep") and what happened at Smallwood, and he doesn't go looking to "take care of her" as always? Nope. I don't believe that.

Also, even in her very intoxicated condition ( I've seen dozens of college girls falling down drunk, and carried home who didn't come up missing or dead) she had an hour and a half to maybe sober up, from the time she was seen on camera headed towards 5N, until JR says he saw her walk to the corner. Many friends have reported it wasn't the first time she was messed up including her boyfriend and his mother. Maybe she had built up a higher tolerance than we think.

Who witnessed JW asleep in his room at 2:30? Who witnessed him sleeping soundly in his room until texting LS hours later and getting a reply from Kilroy's. Then since Kilroy's had informed him she didn't have her phone, he "assumes" she won't answer door and goes instead first to get HT's key to let himself in? Why? Don't we think HT would have mentioned the Smallwood incident and who she left with and was with last when he came and got the key?

If he truly was worried enough to report her missing...why didn't he go directly to 5N looking for her after he didn't find her in her room? Why wait to go there looking for her when his father got there?