Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #8

[Rocket333]

Quote:

"Friends claim Patrick Orren Stephenson went on a bender the night before she vanished, and new footage has shed light on his recent behaviour."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766363142903496912

That’s been debunked hasn’t it? Not proven to have occurred the night prior and footage in media said to have occurred in January, not February.

 

[ProfCluezo]

Ok, a few random thoughts from left field, to perhaps stimulate a bit of “fresh thinking”…. What are others’ thoughts on WHY the police swooped on the accused on the morning they did, given they’d been monitoring him allegedly for two weeks? Why not wait longer and potentially gather more evidence? Might the police have had concerns that the accused could potentially harm someone else? Or destroy evidence? Or….something else?? Perhaps reflecting on this question might suggest more about what, precisely, the police acted on, and why, and why then in particular?

Also, if the police were confident enough to make the charges, (which Troops has assured us, must be on the basis of “solid gold” evidence), why have the police not been able to find the body… ??? Surely knowledge of the details of the alleged murder might provide at least some insights into preferred or viable methods for concealment/disposal? (Ie., depending on how messy or otherwise the allegedly despicably deliberate attack was?). Or is this a wildly naiive assumption on my part?

Another random thought…is it possible there is some really obvious scenario for body concealment/disposal that we have completely overlooked? Because it seems “too” simple? “Too” obvious? For example, disposal in a road-based pot hole? Sewage Pipe? Concealment in concrete in the structure of a building site? Roofspace? Cellar? Abandoned cubby house? Freezer? Dumping with bricks in the ocean? I appreciate these hypotheticals may seem to be heading towards the more bizarre, but I can’t help but wonder if there are answers so simple that we are all missing them? Kind of like looking everywhere for your keys only to discover you were holding them in your left hand???

Finally, is it plausible that the information and conclusions reported by the police commissioner in the last press conference may have been revised, updated, or slightly pivoted to accommodate new “intelligence” or evidence (without the public necessarily being informed of the same?). I know I may sound like a broken record but I keep coming back to the idea that “fresh eyes” on almost everything can be invaluable when we get stuck in hairsplitting minutia and proverbial ruts….?

JMO…

 

[Dotta]

That’s been debunked hasn’t it? Not proven to have occurred the night prior and footage in media said to have occurred in January, not February.

No idea.

I was quoting MSM.

I don't know the accused and his habits as I live on another continent.

That is a report from MSM - alcoholic and drug bender on Saturday night before Samantha vanished on Sunday morning.

The link is provided by me a few posts upthread.

JMO

 

[Angeline]

Just putting this out there, in case it was a deliberate attack with a car, and in case the accused had a dash cam.

The footage could have been accidentally saved to the cloud and could give police evidence for a murder charge:

Understanding How Do Dash Cams Work In 2023 - Nexar

Dashboard cameras are small devices that record the road as you drive. They are there to help provide you security and proof in case of an accident.

www.getnexar.com

Where are all the videos saved?​

Videos are usually saved in the dash cams’ SD card, but can also be stored on your phone or a cloud account.

 

[BGirl88]

I’ve been thinking about the Sissy Austin attack and the fact SM disappeared almost 12 months to the day after Sissy’s attack.

I have been wondering if they could be connected and perhaps Sissy was his first attempt but either he chickened out or was interrupted. IMO. Sissy’s attacker was wearing pants, no shirt and had a cap on.

A few other things I’ve been thinking:
I read somewhere that the night before, PS attended an 80th bday party. Was this confirmed or just rumour. Could it have been his grandparent? If so, did they have a bday celebration for this same person a year before as well (79)? Could this grandparent live near the forest? Is this how he came to be in the forest when Sam disappeared and also a year earlier when Sissy was attacked? Do family reunions / celebrations stir up some sort of emotion in PS that caused him to attack. All MOO.

I know it all sounds pretty far fetched, and total 100% speculation. Just throwing my thoughts out there.

 

[BreakingNews]

DBM

 

[BreakingNews]

I suspect she was told to shut up about a serious, ongoing investigation

Sissy's investigation is also serious and ongoing.

 

[Rocket333]

I wonder how long it took for him to think "that's a smart watch, and she's got a phone in her pocket".

Presumably, there was an alleged murder to be conducted first. Something that may have taken .... how long?

imo

Sissy Austen had her phone tucked away under her top and forgot it was there after she was attacked.
Murder and body removal would have had to have been pretty fast and efficient because her absence was noticed quickly and the search response was fast. It’d be so hard to do quickly if you weren’t alert and prepared. Also it sounds like the scene was clean with not much, if not nothing (that we’re aware of) being found. Makes you wonder how it could be so clean.
Makes you wonder if the “look out for damaged cars or property” announcement was to stir the public pot.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

I have been wondering if they could be connected and perhaps Sissy was his first attempt but either he chickened out or was interrupted. IMO. Sissy’s attacker was wearing pants, no shirt and had a cap on.

It also makes you think about how many other women have been assaulted in Ballarat and they have not reported their assault to anyone, they simply have kept it to themselves. Very sad for Sissy my thoughts are with you.

 

[Rocket333]

I am not convinced that it is the most obvious one, at this time. Patton says, 'It's not a hit and run. She was attacked.' He is uncommitted to saying ' a car was involved.'. I took this to mean, a car was not involved in her death
But in his actions in secreting the body, which is rational, I guess. He would hardly use a wheelbarrow or his quadbike. I got the impression that some damage might have been done to whatever vehicle was used to hide the body away from Mt Clear, some altercation with a tree stump or whatever.

But he was clear and concise re no hit and run incident. And the charge itself implies a deliberate, person to person, face to face, shirtfront to shirtfront matter.

Lots of rumours about a bender, the one that was videoed was back in January.. not the night before... . .

But this is just my take on it, we don't have to fall out about it .. .

We’ve covered this before, but I’m thinking that the only way the police could confidently know SM has been murdered is if they have witnessed an attack via video footage (dashcam, go pro or phone etc) and/or the biometrics on Samantha’s phone have indicated sudden, life ending changes to her vitals. If they viewed footage and had a suspect in sight, the urgency to search his home and car may have taken a backseat to waiting to see if he would lead them to her body.

 

[HoneyBunOne]

That’s been debunked hasn’t it? Not proven to have occurred the night prior and footage in media said to have occurred in January, not February.

I don't believe so. The footage of alleged drug taking is believed to have happened earlier in the year. The quotes from friends about a massive bender the night before are believed to be true. They are 2 separate incidents, but one seems to back up the fact the other is possible, if not likely.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

See below.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

Ok, a few random thoughts from left field, to perhaps stimulate a bit of “fresh thinking”…. What are others’ thoughts on WHY the police swooped on the accused on the morning they did, given they’d been monitoring him allegedly for two weeks? Why not wait longer and potentially gather more evidence? Might the police have had concerns that the accused could potentially harm someone else? Or destroy evidence? Or….something else?? Perhaps reflecting on this question might suggest more about what, precisely, the police acted on, and why, and why then in particular?

Also, if the police were confident enough to make the charges, (which Troops has assured us, must be on the basis of “solid gold” evidence), why have the police not been able to find the body… ??? Surely knowledge of the details of the alleged murder might provide at least some insights into preferred or viable methods for concealment/disposal? (Ie., depending on how messy or otherwise the allegedly despicably deliberate attack was?). Or is this a wildly naiive assumption on my part?

Another random thought…is it possible there is some really obvious scenario for body concealment/disposal that we have completely overlooked? Because it seems “too” simple? “Too” obvious? For example, disposal in a road-based pot hole? Sewage Pipe? Concealment in concrete in the structure of a building site? Roofspace? Cellar? Abandoned cubby house? Freezer? Dumping with bricks in the ocean? I appreciate these hypotheticals may seem to be heading towards the more bizarre, but I can’t help but wonder if there are answers so simple that we are all missing them? Kind of like looking everywhere for your keys only to discover you were holding them in your left hand???

Finally, is it plausible that the information and conclusions reported by the police commissioner in the last press conference may have been revised, updated, or slightly pivoted to accommodate new “intelligence” or evidence (without the public necessarily being informed of the same?). I know I may sound like a broken record but I keep coming back to the idea that “fresh eyes” on almost everything can be invaluable when we get stuck in proverbial ruts….?

JMO…

I suspect the use of two vehicles and the second vehicle was and has not come under the radar giving the opportunity to dispose of the body completely out of range for the police to search.
I suspect concern of out of control behaviour patterns that could have put someone else at risk.
All suspected and allegedly MOO

 

[Dotta]

I suspect the use of two vehicles and the second vehicle was and has not come under the radar giving the opportunity to dispose of the body completely out of range for the police to search.
I suspect concern of out of control behaviour patterns that could have put someone else at risk.
All suspected and allegedly MOO

But it would point to an accomplice.
Whose second vehicle could it be?
Did the accused allegedly return home and take another vehicle?
Or did he allegedly call someone for help?

Police claim he allegedly acted alone.
Nobody else is charged.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

My guess is that Sam’s phone was turned off before the 11am brunch.
The fact that her phone was off was probably why MM was very worried and reported her missing.
As phones do not ping when switched off, it seems someone turned it back on for the 5pm ping to have occurred. My opinion only.

“State Emergency Services volunteers and police last week searched the bush in an area between the Canadian Plantation and Yankee Flat Road - about 15km from Ms Murphy's home - where they believe her phone was turned off.
‘She would never switch that phone off... that phone was always hooked up,' Mr Robson said.”

16/2/24 Article about Sam’s family being concerned about her phone being off:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-Samantha-Murphys-disappearance-watching-her.

http://

Hi Nifty, I have gone back over the interview given by Police Commissioner Shane Patton to confirm what I have noted:
_____________________
time 9:49
A woman reporter: 'Was a car allegedly involved at all?'
PC Shane Patton: 'I am not going to go into any further detail other than to say this was a we are alleging a deliberate attack which has caused the death of Samantha'
verbatim
Authors: a woman reporter, Police Commissioner Shane Patton. Victoria Police
_____________________

No confirmation either way

We don't know !

We are only guessing.

The police know much more than us

Obviously, a vehicle would have been involved to get her out

As she can't be found anywhere near where she ran or anywhere close by

The place has been saturated, and she still can't be found, coming onto 8 weeks

But there is something very odd with all this

 

[ProfCluezo]

The place has been saturated, and she still can't be found, coming onto 8 weeks

Definitely time for some pretty major pivoting of possibilities and assumptions… IMO… MOO… So many features of this alleged murder seem to defy what’s most probable, logical and comprehensible…. There’s also a perplexing sense of internal contradiction and inconsistency in regards to almost every speculated scenario about almost every hypothesised aspect of the alleged accused’s actions, potential mental state and motives….

The only consistency is the inconsistency.

The only certainty is the lack of certainty.

As clear as mud, essentially…

JMO… MOO…

 

[Oona]

But it would point to an accomplice.
Whose second vehicle could it be?
Did the accused allegedly return home and take another vehicle?
Or did he allegedly call someone for help?

Police claim he allegedly acted alone.
Nobody else is charged.

I believe the alleged perpetrator acted alone but after the fact may have disclosed information or somehow raised suspicions among his inner circle.
One or more of these people may have provided useful information to police prior to the arrest.
It is likely the police are currently working on gathering more information from the alleged perpetrator’s inner circle. In my opinion.

This is alluded to in this Daily Mail article:

Telltale signs cops are close to finding Samantha Murphy's body

The hunt for the body of missing mother-of-three Samantha Murphy could be nearing its conclusion as police tighten the net around those close to her alleged killer.

www.dailymail.co.uk

“The hunt for the body of missing mother-of-three Samantha Murphy could be nearing its conclusion as police tighten the net around those close to her alleged killer. ”
A source with close ties to Victoria Police's Missing Persons Unit told Daily Mail Australia while Stephenson may not be co-operating, his cohorts likely are.
Police would have been restricted in what they could do, ask and say while Stephenson was in the wild, but with him in the bin, those questions can now be asked,' he said.

'What we're seeing here is likely intel offered up by people who might be persuaded with suggestions that remaining quiet could be considered aiding a suspected killer.”
(BBM)

 

[Dotta]

I believe the alleged perpetrator acted alone but after the fact may have disclosed information or somehow raised suspicions among his inner circle.
One or more of these people may have provided useful information to police prior to the arrest.
It is likely the police are currently working on gathering more information from the alleged perpetrator’s inner circle. In my opinion.

This is alluded to in this Daily Mail article:

Telltale signs cops are close to finding Samantha Murphy's body

The hunt for the body of missing mother-of-three Samantha Murphy could be nearing its conclusion as police tighten the net around those close to her alleged killer.

www.dailymail.co.uk

“The hunt for the body of missing mother-of-three Samantha Murphy could be nearing its conclusion as police tighten the net around those close to her alleged killer. ”
A source with close ties to Victoria Police's Missing Persons Unit told Daily Mail Australia while Stephenson may not be co-operating, his cohorts likely are.
Police would have been restricted in what they could do, ask and say while Stephenson was in the wild, but with him in the bin, those questions can now be asked,' he said.

'What we're seeing here is likely intel offered up by people who might be persuaded with suggestions that remaining quiet could be considered aiding a suspected killer.”
(BBM)

I see.
Oh well...
Being a good friend is one thing.
But...
being an accomplice in hiding the body of a victim is altogether a next level.

Anybody involved must pay consequences

ETA
But, surely, if he allegedly called someone for help to hide the body,
Police must have these numbers, no???

I mean -
it must be obvious for them who the accused allegedly contacted, using phone data.

JMO

 

[ProfCluezo]

I have (perhaps naively) assumed that withholding information pertinent to knowledge of details of an alleged offense, would be seen as aiding and abetting an alleged offender, by omission?

Are any websleuthers in a position to clarify the legal implications of potential informants deliberately not disclosing information they may know (or suspect) could potentially assist police? I’m guessing there could be argued to be “shades of grey” here…?

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Police were not tracking the accused for 2 weeks from the date of Samantha's disappearance. She disappeared on Feb 4, and he was arrested on Mar 6, a total of 4 1/2 weeks afterwards. Police were tracking him for 2 weeks prior to the arrest, leaving about 2 1/2 weeks after the event for the accused to have disposed of a body and other items, washed his car, gotten car repairs etc. The article below shows the timeline:

How the investigation into the disappearance of Samantha Murphy unfolded

www.9news.com.au

This article states that the belief is police were tracking the accused for 2 weeks prior to his arrest:

Item belonging to Samantha Murphy’s accused killer seized by police

7NEWS understands police had been keeping an eye on Patrick Stephenson for two weeks before he was arrested.

7news.com.au

This timeline does seem to get misunderstood often. Your post is strong, clear and clarifying.
Hopefully everyone reads it and it sticks. The 2 1/2 weeks of LE KNOWING NOTHING about PS is very important. thanks.