2024 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

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EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE
ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024​

We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active. Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

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CSU Hurricane Seasonal Forecasting

tropical.colostate.edu tropical.colostate.edu

Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
 
Published 3/4/24

www.usatoday.com

Hurricane season forecast is already looking grim: Here's why hot oceans, La Niña matter

El Niño is fading and could give way to a La Niña, which could be bad news for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season given the warm ocean temperatures.
www.usatoday.com

"We've got possibly extremely warm sea surface temperatures, especially in the main (hurricane) development region and the prospect of La Niña being in place," said Florida State climatologist David Zierden. "That's not good news for hurricane season."
 
Last edited:
www.wltx.com

First Atlantic disturbance of the year being tracked

This system is not expected to gain strength as it moves towards the southwest over the open waters of the Atlantic.
www.wltx.com www.wltx.com

An area of low pressure located approximately 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been generating a limited yet consistent region of showers and thunderstorms east of its core since Wednesday.
 
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