Abby & Libby - The Delphi Murders - Richard Allen Arrested - #183

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They could just quote District of Columbia Court of Appeals Judge Catharine Easterly in her concurring opinion in Williams v. United States, a case in which an examiner testified that markings on certain bullets were unique to a gun recovered from a defendant’s apartment:

"As matters currently stand, a certainty statement regarding toolmark pattern matching has the same
probative value as the vision of a psychic: it reflects nothing more than the individual’s foundationless faith
in what he believes to be true. This is not evidence on which we can in good conscience rely, particularly in
criminal cases, where we demand proof—real proof—beyond a reasonable doubt, precisely because the
stakes are so high.
"

As a juror, that would do it for me.
I'm not so extreme that I totally disbelieve any and all toolmark analysis, but I see the flaw in its methodology and application. I certainly do here, where it seems we don't know chain of custody for the round or the expertise of the examiner yet. It's one of those things I guess I will have to hear testimony on to judge.
 
It is a completely subjective determination of whether a match exists, so percent chance of false positive isn't a thing. The person that examines the striations either finds a match or doesn't find a match. It isn't a matter of "well only 0.02 percent of the time does this certain examiner get it wrong," because the person who is determining whether that person got it wrong is also making a subjective determination. Only in controlled studies can you avoid this bias, which is part of what the PCAST study was making its point over. You don't have the luxury of a controlled test in a courtroom; it's either "this examiner screwed up" or "this examiner didn't screw up."
If I’m a juror, show me 1) a sample of true matched pairs created from one gun, 2) a sample of mismatched pairs created from two different guns, same model, and 3) the CS bullet juxtaposed with the test-fed round. High-quality photos, of course. Ask me, “Does pair 3 look more like the pairs in 1) or in 2)?”

Perfectly happy to be my own expert. They do similar things with all kinds of evidence, right?

ETA: You can still tell me what the expert says.
 
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Here ya go, posted it yesterday. :)

I must be overlooking it. You said Pg 276 in the PDF you linked, but it's not on Page 276.

I've actually carefully mapped out that Certificate of Analysis against the Seizure Record before. So I was surprised to read someone state that the brand of ammo found at the crime scene has been disclosed.

Where should I look if I want to read that Laboratory Item 016 (Agency Item 122 — the unspent round found at the crime scene) was identified or listed as "Blazer" brand ammo?


1.jpg
2.jpg

3.jpg

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If I’m a juror, skip the experts and show me 1) a sample of true matched pairs created from one gun, 2) a sample of mismatched pairs created from two different guns, same model, and 3) the CS bullet juxtaposed with the test-fed round. High-quality photos, of course. Ask me, “Does pair 3 look more like the pairs in 1) or in 2)?”
When thinking about asking jurors to be their own experts, I'm having painful flashbacks
If it doesn't fit, you must acquit.
 
If I’m a juror, skip the experts and show me 1) a sample of true matched pairs created from one gun, 2) a sample of mismatched pairs created from two different guns, same model, and 3) the CS bullet juxtaposed with the test-fed round. High-quality photos, of course. Ask me, “Does pair 3 look more like the pairs in 1) or in 2)?”

Perfectly happy to be my own expert. They do similar things with all kinds of evidence, right?
One problem with that is you and I aren't actually experts, so how would we know the difference? What if the CS bullet juxtaposed with a test-fed round from another gun of same make and model are also exact matches? What about the same with a gun from a different make and model? The problem with the method is the control and the worry that bias will influence our decision. I don't have the answer obviously. :D
 
Sometimes the defense can remove a brick from the state's wall and use it to build their own. I don't need a wall, I just need to see the proof. Prove he did it and none of this trivial stuff matters. One brick with proof will do it for me.
No case is won or lost with one brick unless you have a clear video of the defendant perpetrating the crime. Seldom happens that way.

It will be the totality of the evidence (or bricks) piece by piece that will paint the clear picture here IMO. But who knows, maybe the State has an ace up their sleeve we don't know about yet? ;)

JMO
 
Oh ok, I should have read more closely that you were correcting your previous post.

Sorry, trying to catch up on all the posts since yesterday.

So we (publicly) still don't know the manufacturer or brand of the round found at the crime scene. Kind of odd, but whatever.
@Scion

Just wanted to let you know that you had one of the strongest first posts on a board I have ever read. Good stuff and welcome!
 
One problem with that is you and I aren't actually experts, so how would we know the difference? What if the CS bullet juxtaposed with a test-fed round from another gun of same make and model are also exact matches? What about the same with a gun from a different make and model? The problem with the method is the control and the worry that bias will influence our decision. I don't have the answer obviously. :D
We’re still arguing over how he could have flunked yet another test and still be innocent.

He might have the outline of a gun on his jacket pocket because manipulating photos introduces artifacts. If it’s even him.

Witnesses get things wrong and so what even if they didn’t? Nobody living saw him at the CS.

Just because he was at one end of the bridge doesn’t mean he crossed it.

Just because nobody saw two similarly dressed fortyish males…

Just because nobody saw him on the trail after the kidnapping…

Just because …. doesn’t mean…

Gets to be a bit much.
 
We’re still arguing over how he could have flunked yet another test and still be innocent.
That's kind of the nature of the beast. People that pass all the tests rarely wind up on trial. In the extremely unlikely event that RA is proven innocent some day, we can still say it "He sure looked guilty!"
 
We’re still arguing over how he could have flunked yet another test and still be innocent.

He might have the outline of a gun on his jacket pocket because manipulating photos introduces artifacts. If it’s even him.

Witnesses get things wrong and so what even if they didn’t? Nobody living saw him at the CS.

Just because he was at one end of the bridge doesn’t mean he crossed it.

Just because nobody saw two similarly dressed fortyish males…

Just because nobody saw him on the trail after the kidnapping…

Just because …. doesn’t mean…

Gets to be a bit much.
I only really comment about evidentiary rulings, because I like that stuff and encounter a ton of them in my area of practice. I seriously have zero input on RA's guilt or innocence. Of course I have heard "facts" of the case, but until they pass the reliability test to be admitted as evidence, I take them all with heavy skepticism. Others don't and it doesn't bother me at all. It's never an argument in here for me; I have enough argument in my daily life to get my fill. I just want to see a fair trial with a fair outcome. That, to me, is justice.

I get all the differing viewpoints. We are all ready for trial to get underway, and many have information overload at this point.

I have really enjoyed discussing these issues with you @WildHuncher, as I have with everyone else here.
 
Sorry if I was snippy, it was a bit embarrassing. :p

No big deal at all, I'd be annoyed too if I was correcting myself and someone didn't realize it because they weren't taking the time to read close enough.

I'm dying to know more details about that round found at the crime scene, so I was really really hoping I had overlooked something.

That round is so mysterious!
 
No big deal at all, I'd be annoyed too if I was correcting myself and someone didn't realize it because they weren't taking the time to read close enough.

I'm dying to know more details about that round found at the crime scene, so I was really really hoping I had overlooked something.

That round is so mysterious!
From your examination of the documents, could you determine which ones were test fired?
 
That's kind of the nature of the beast. People that pass all the tests rarely wind up on trial. In the extremely unlikely event that RA is proven innocent some day, we can still say it "He sure looked guilty!"
Yes, and I have promised to eat my favorite pink golf visor if that happens. Hope it doesn't come to that. lol
 
All this article says is < The Carroll County Sheriff’s Office confirmed that deputies were sent>

Did the reaction to the Sulfites cause you to lash out to the point that the SO could have been called out for a “domestic incident”?

RA had CCSO response to his home which there was a need to “keep the peace”.

RA may have resisted his wife’s intent to take him to the hospital if she was possibly fearing alcohol poisoning from excessive drinking considering the 3 am time of the SO response thus the need to “keep the peace” imo. Alcohol Poisoning: Get Emergency Room Help Immediately

I’m familiar with wine and sulfites but the only possibility of “bad juice” in US I’ve ever heard of is from illegally produced moonshine.

[...]
Richard Allen’s home in 2015 for a “domestic” incident.
[…]
Sheriff Leazenby said no law enforcement action was involved other than responding to “keep the peace.”
[...]
Deputies responded to Delphi suspect’s home for domestic issue to ‘keep the peace’



all imo
I believe RA has alcohol and anger management issues. JMO
 
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