Andres, why do you think that this will not go to trial?
From the statements made by Sheriff White at his October 23rd presser about making sure that they have a prosecutable case, and the statements the prosecutor Richardson has made to the press such as
""Because of the nature of the case, there is not a lot of room to enter into pleas," he [Richardson] said.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/19/alyssa-bustamante-slaying_n_364544.html
Thanks
I'm not saying this isn't a prosecutable case. I'm saying based on (what seems to be) a large load of evidence, it's in the defendants best interest to try to seek a plea agreement. Because, based on what we "know", there seems to be a lot of evidence against AB. Therefore, the certainty of a plea bargain is more attractive than the highly variable trial and sentencing.
Plea bargaining is in the best interest of the state too. A prosecutor, based on ABA rules, has a duty to attempt to plea bargain. The extent of the plea bargaining could range significantly, obviously.
This is a difficult case to try because it involves a 15 year old. That can be an issue to the jury if the state is seeking LWOP, even though some don't agree on this board it only takes one juror to be disturbed by that. I know the issue of whether she should be tried as an adult is already polarizing. Added to that is the history of mental illness, which some may see as a reason she needs rehabilitation in addition to spending time in prison.
This is a highly emotional case, and it's best for the community as a whole to get closure more quickly.
It will also be a very expensive case to try, as there will be a lot of expert testimony stretched over a long period of time. There will also be appeals, which will be exponentially more expensive than the trial.
In my opinion, the not guilty plea and the motion for change of venue are both posturing by the defense to seek a plea bargain.
ETA: I'm not advocating for a plea bargain, I'm just offering my opinion about the reasons why I think there is a strong possibility it will happen here.
ETAA: Richardson's comments are also posturing, as he's not going to come out in the press and say, "Yeah, we're willing to plead this down."