Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

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Toowong(s) said:
I waver between
- an attack by a predator (either stalked SM or was just waiting on the trails for a chance to pounce and SM came along at wrong time)
- an accidental hit / run then cover up by someone SM was unlucky to cross paths with who has a lot to lose in that situation
- or just a more spontaneous cover up by some druggos or car thief’s or similar that SM inadvertently disturbed.
Click to expand...
All those are what I waver between too.
 
Toowong(s) said:
IMO it’s reasonable to assume MM and perhaps kids, others were coming/going searching and checking the area from as early as 9.30am, for at least an hour or two before calling police around 11? And possibly some normal Sunday activity, eg maybe MM popped out for some milk and the paper before realising SM was missing. They may even have been checking earlier say called some time after 8 and discovered SM was unreachable, checked FindMy and couldn’t see any trace of mum. We use FindMy and Life360 in our family to see who is where.

I am guessing about the times here as we don’t know timelines other than SM leaving at 7am, and I think police confirmed MM raised the alarm “in the morning” - guessing late morning after SM didn’t return on time (9am?), trying to call (was SM phone offline by then?) and attempting to find SM himself. It would be very strange IMO if MM didn’t follow something along those lines, like if he called the police before having a drive around the usual routes.

My interpretation of the police statement (below) - that they are “very, very confident” on this, confident MM has not somehow ducked out the back door, jumped in a hidden damaged vehicle he’d quietly borrowed from work, disappeared for one or two hours, committed the perfect murder and cover up, and snuck back in, without the kids or neighbours noticing or being captured on his own or someone else’s CCTV. It’s just so unlikely IMO.

Of course anything is possible though and these police statements could also be absolutely intended to be putting pressure on a POI! I can see that could be the case, but I don’t get that vibe myself from watching the press conference video.

This is the statement:

Superintendent Hatt said questions over the movements of those within the family home in the period Ms Murphy was on that run were difficult to answer.

'There's a lot of movements to and from the house during the day and again we're very, very confident we have tracked all of those movements and we are following up on everything,' he said.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Samantha Murphy: Cops investigate 'movements to and from' home

Police have said there was a 'number of movements' to and from the Murphy house on February 4, the day the mother-of-three disappeared.
www.dailymail.co.uk
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Even if the police have suspects, they won't say, due to family

This planned attack could have been organised by someone else, and that person doesn't have to be in the bush at all

The perpetrators doing the hit would have been

Would be interesting if there was activity at the business throughout the day and evening
 
Sorry,
But using a car from their own Business and then bringing it back would be soooo stupid that my teeth are hurting
(as we say in my country hehe)
even thinking about it.

But then, what do I know?
I'm not a criminal ;)

But really,
It would be full of victim's DNA.
You cannot easily get rid of it.

JMO
 
Another part I found interesting IMO…

When they moved onto the topic of her falling victim to someone known to her they had a clip of a man speaking to police (it looked like his house?) The clip was overlayed with the words ‘by someone known to her, someone perhaps with a grudge against her or her family’

Anyone know who that is? I haven’t seen that footage anywhere else before
 
BoysTown said:
I have tried to catch up but was over 10 pages behind….

IMO - I just watched ‘Under Investigation’ Like many of you I think it was very targeted.

Please correct me if I’m wrong but there was no montion of her husband? At all? They showed the presser which had Jess pleading…I thought that was interesting.
Click to expand...

There was no mention of anyone, was there?

I think they were trying to lay the facts on the table, to see if a theory fit the facts ... not the facts fitting a theory.

And there are very few facts that we actually know. Everything else is theories and speculation.

imo
 
SouthAussie said:
There was no mention of anyone, was there?

I think they were trying to lay the facts on the table, to see if a theory fit the facts ... not the facts fitting a theory.

And there are very few facts that we actually know. Everything else is theories and speculation.

imo
Click to expand...
They showed the presser of Jess speaking but not MM. I guess his plee for assistance/information wasn’t emotional enough for ratings.

IMO
 
BoysTown said:
Another part I found interesting IMO…

When they moved onto the topic of her falling victim to someone known to her they had a clip of a man speaking to police (it looked like his house?) The clip was overlayed with the words ‘by someone known to her, someone perhaps with a grudge against her or her family’

Anyone know who that is? I haven’t seen that footage anywhere else before
Click to expand...
I believe it was a neighboring property. It definitely caught my attention too, BUT……I’m pretty sure it would be against the rules to sleuth neighbors though.
Especially after what happened in the William Tyrell investigation.
 
I am no expert, that's for sure, but can a flatline or massive slowing in heart rate be caused by a massive hit of drugs of some sort but the victim is still alive? I have always thought that more than one person is involved and they drugged her to take her captive. I feel that they may have lured SM into the trap though via a woman. A woman asking for help of some sort and then SM was ambushed.
 
Not speculation but still info that seems relevant in terms of happenings in the nearby community + SM's ongoing disappearance.

Article (paywalled) - but headline reads :

‘Like a freight train’: Bushfire that threatened homes south of Ballarat treated as suspicious"​

www.theage.com.au

‘Like a freight train’: Bushfire that threatened homes south of Ballarat treated as suspicious

Firefighters continue to battle two bushfires, while communities in Victoria’s west narrowly avoided a much worse outcome after temperatures on Wednesday peaked later in the day.
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au

the first paragraph "An investigation is under way into the potentially suspicious origins of a bushfire that burnt through more than 100 hectares and threatened properties in the state's west overnight".

Dereel VIC is not that far from Ballarat/Mt Clear (highlighted in red below)

1709184963969.png
 
BoysTown said:
They showed the presser of Jess speaking but not MM. I guess his plee for assistance/information wasn’t emotional enough for ratings.

IMO
Click to expand...

If this show (besides seeking great ratings) was targeted at potential witnesses, that would make sense.

Maybe somebody knows something - other than the perp.
Maybe someone has a feeling that someone they know is involved for a specific reason (fresh fingernail scratches, torn clothing, bite mark, for example).
Maybe the plea from Jess could pull a few heart strings. Inspire that someone to make a call to Crime Stoppers.

imo
 
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Dogmum05 said:
I am no expert, that's for sure, but can a flatline or massive slowing in heart rate be caused by a massive hit of drugs of some sort but the victim is still alive? I have always thought that more than one person is involved and they drugged her to take her captive. I feel that they may have lured SM into the trap though via a woman. A woman asking for help of some sort and then SM was ambushed.
Click to expand...

Chloroform???
 
mondayschild said:
Not speculation but still info that seems relevant in terms of happenings in the nearby community + SM's ongoing disappearance.

Article (paywalled) - but headline reads :

‘Like a freight train’: Bushfire that threatened homes south of Ballarat treated as suspicious"​

www.theage.com.au

‘Like a freight train’: Bushfire that threatened homes south of Ballarat treated as suspicious

Firefighters continue to battle two bushfires, while communities in Victoria’s west narrowly avoided a much worse outcome after temperatures on Wednesday peaked later in the day.
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au

the first paragraph "An investigation is under way into the potentially suspicious origins of a bushfire that burnt through more than 100 hectares and threatened properties in the state's west overnight".

Dereel VIC is not that far from Ballarat/Mt Clear (highlighted in red below)

View attachment 486953
Click to expand...

Depends which route is taken, this is the shortest: 26 min (31.5 km) via Colac-Ballarat Rd/C146

1709185944863.png

(imo) the potentially 'suspicious' Dereel fires are unrelated.

Edit - spelling (always spelling. My Achilles heel ;))
 
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kiwi50 said:
That is the rabbithole I’m trying to go down at moment, whether any other family members were working there, apart from sister in law.

The one question I wish we could ask, is who has the AVO against them.
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Iirc, it was stated somebody in the extended family has/had the AVO, but it wasn't stated that the Murphys were the ones who needed the protection. Is that correct?
So who needed the protection is another question.
 
Dotta said:
Sorry,
But using a car from their own Business and then bringing it back would be soooo stupid that my teeth are hurting
(as we say in my country hehe)
even thinking about it.

But then, what do I know?
I'm not a criminal ;)

But really,
It would be full of victim's DNA.
You cannot easily get rid of it
Click to expand...

Dotta said:
Sorry,
But using a car from their own Business and then bringing it back would be soooo stupid that my teeth are hurting
(as we say in my country hehe)
even thinking about it.

But then, what do I know?
I'm not a criminal ;)

But really,
It would be full of victim's DNA.
You cannot easily get rid of it.

JMO
Click to expand...
That's if they tested all the cars from the business. The perp if may have thought he could get away with it rather than use own vehicle which is most certainly going to be tested.
 
kiwi50 said:
Does anyone know how long the Murphy’s have owned their current business?
The website says the business has been around for 60 years, curious as to whether it was owned by MM’s parents/grandparents, and whether any other relations have shares in the business?
Click to expand...
I heard somewhere that MM used to work there, before going on to own the business … imo
 
Hats said:
It is really not giving the public much to go on though, and a lot of people probably would not bother reporting a damaged car unless it aligned with something particular about the car, eg make/model or colour or some other identifying feature.

Maybe this is the point though, and this message about a damaged car is not meant for the public, but rather to rattle the perpetrators.
Click to expand...
With the continued talk about a damaged car some people might make it a sudden priority to repair, respray colour, relocate or relinquish a damaged vehicle. Hard to do those things completely unnoticed. I guess you could if you had help, but the more people involved the more likely it is someone will talk, either deliberately or a slip up.
 
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