Yes... and yet,consider Sheriff Staton's words : "Things we focused on at the beginning of this case, we are no longer focusing on ...." ( not verbatim ). I believe LE has possibly changed their perspective over time. I really do. IMO MOO
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Stranger abduction theory
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Yes... and yet,consider Sheriff Staton's words : "Things we focused on at the beginning of this case, we are no longer focusing on ...." ( not verbatim ). I believe LE has possibly changed their perspective over time. I really do. IMO MOO
All JMO
Jo in Calif
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It boggles my mind of how many things they had to consider, in the beginning. But IMO after LE investigated, all the things they were focusing on, things were being ruled out. We have no idea what was ruled out.
I am only going by what has occurred, during the GJ proceedings, who was being brought before the GJ, , the fliers that were handed out, and the, what I consider, the slip from Desiree, about what would Kyron be doing out side, when he was supposed to be in the school.( This is my interpretation of what Desiree said.) IMO LE has not changed their mind about who they think the unnamed POI is.
I think it's just a LE CYA statement, same with Staton's comment to the reporter who asked if RSO's had been ruled out. They'd be idiots to say the ruled out all SO's if in fact there is still even one gazillionth of a chance that they are wrong in their current avenue of investigation. I agree, you'll never hear them say that, ever. What I'd like to hear them say though, is simply that they checked out the whereabouts of all the local RSO's (they could find anyway) on the day Kyron went missing.
bessie
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It's a good thought.
If we eliminate a total stranger, since Kyron wasn't carried off kicking and screaming (the perp was able to lure him or lead him away unnoticed); and, we eliminate Terri or other family members for the moment; we're left with friends and acquaintances. A "recent friend" seems like a good candidate to me. If either of the Horman's had any new friends, I'd want to take a look at them.
Then there are these considerations. The perp:
- was at least somewhat familiar to Kyron;
- fit into the landscape at Skyline;
- was comfortable maneuvering through the building;
- and was willing to wait for an opportune moment.
- parents and friends of students
- school employees
- delivery/service/sales people
Among the parents and friends, how many knew Kyron well enough to arrive that morning with the intent to kidnap him? And how likely is it that any of them would commit a crime of opportunity without planning or forethought?
How many of the parents and friends did Kyron know? Would he walk off with a person who looked like a parent even if he wasn't familiar with him (or her)? This is the most difficult group to weed out, imo. We can't be sure that all of the family/friend visitors have been accounted for. And even then, who can be certain that Uncle Harry who takes such an interest in his nieces and nephews isn't a child predator.
The third group, delivery/service/sales people holds good possibilities among those who make periodic calls to the school, at least often enough to be familiar to Kyron. Naturally, anyone known to have conducted business at the school that morning has been questioned, maybe even polygraphed. But how about the ones who were not scheduled to be there on June 4th? Any of them might have seen the sign about the science fair on a recent visit. Have they all been checked out, and if so, how thoroughly?
One more thing comes to mind. If Kyron was the specific target, did the perp know Terri was his stepmother? Would he have waited in the parking lot until she left? Or was he lurking in the hallways watching her?
A lot of the same old unanswered questions, I know. We can see, however, that while a "perp off the street" scenario is unlikely in Kyron's disappearance, other viable possibilities exist to explain a stranger/acquaintance abduction. These are the most likely to me, but certainly not the only ones.
Add to your post the fact that Kaine said that the family (and his teacher) had been trying to get through to Kyron that when he was in school, he need to do what any adult told him to do. The quote is over in the quotes thread.
gliving
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And Gates has to choose his words very carefully to not implicate the school with it's complete lack of security that morning. It's a narrow line he's treading.
Well, here's another way I'm looking at it. If it was a stranger abduction, then the stranger was looking for a child to abduct. From what I've read, these types of predators have a gender and age in mind. So, in this scenario, how many children were at risk (i.e. boys of Kryon's apparent age)?
From BeanE's first post in the "How many people were at Skyline..." thread, there were 275 children enrolled and a typical absentee rate of 20 children per day.
*Caution! Math Ahead!
275 enrolled - 20 absent = 255 kids at Skyline on June 4th.
So, I'll assume 50% were boys:
255 kids x .5 = 127.5 rounding up to 128 boys
So, if there are 128 boys, how many of these boys would have been in Kyron's age and/or physical size range? 2 grades maybe?
So, I'll take 128 boys and divide by the number of grades at Skyline (K-8). That's 9 grades, counting Kindergarten.
128 boys / 9 grades = 14.2 boys per grade, rounding down to 14 boys per grade.
Assuming approximately two grades at risk for a perpetrator targeting boys of Kyron's age, that's 28 boys at the greatest potential risk (14 boys per grade x 2 grades) for a predator seeking a boy of Kyron's apparent age.
Of those 28 boys, the risk is probably highest for those boys who have a tendency to not always follow instructions and to be where they aren't supposed to be. (Like the flower bed kids, and imo Kyron due to statements made by KH, DY, and TP). What percentage would that be?
10% = 2.8
20% = 5.6
30% = 8.4
40% = 11.2
50% = 14
When I look at it this way, the odds against Kyron are very high, imo, in a stranger abduction scenario.
For instance, if 20% of the boys in Kyron's age range weren't accompanied by a well-meaning adult, that's 5-6 kids at risk. So, looking at it this way for a stranger abduction scenario, that's a 1 in 5 or 6 chance that it would be Kyron. Even if as many as 50% of the boys were in places where they were at risk, that's still a 1 in 14 chance of it being Kyron, and that's pretty bad odds, imo. With these types of odds, I don't see it as strangely coincidental that it was Kyron.
The above are moo and mmo (my math only).
From BeanE's first post in the "How many people were at Skyline..." thread, there were 275 children enrolled and a typical absentee rate of 20 children per day.
*Caution! Math Ahead!
275 enrolled - 20 absent = 255 kids at Skyline on June 4th.
So, I'll assume 50% were boys:
255 kids x .5 = 127.5 rounding up to 128 boys
So, if there are 128 boys, how many of these boys would have been in Kyron's age and/or physical size range? 2 grades maybe?
So, I'll take 128 boys and divide by the number of grades at Skyline (K-8). That's 9 grades, counting Kindergarten.
128 boys / 9 grades = 14.2 boys per grade, rounding down to 14 boys per grade.
Assuming approximately two grades at risk for a perpetrator targeting boys of Kyron's age, that's 28 boys at the greatest potential risk (14 boys per grade x 2 grades) for a predator seeking a boy of Kyron's apparent age.
Of those 28 boys, the risk is probably highest for those boys who have a tendency to not always follow instructions and to be where they aren't supposed to be. (Like the flower bed kids, and imo Kyron due to statements made by KH, DY, and TP). What percentage would that be?
10% = 2.8
20% = 5.6
30% = 8.4
40% = 11.2
50% = 14
When I look at it this way, the odds against Kyron are very high, imo, in a stranger abduction scenario.
For instance, if 20% of the boys in Kyron's age range weren't accompanied by a well-meaning adult, that's 5-6 kids at risk. So, looking at it this way for a stranger abduction scenario, that's a 1 in 5 or 6 chance that it would be Kyron. Even if as many as 50% of the boys were in places where they were at risk, that's still a 1 in 14 chance of it being Kyron, and that's pretty bad odds, imo. With these types of odds, I don't see it as strangely coincidental that it was Kyron.
The above are moo and mmo (my math only).
GrainneDhu
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I probably wouldn't, except that I can never get the Groene case out of my mind. The perp had traveled across several states looking for children to abduct, rape, and kill, and ended up in Idaho, in a remote area, at a remote house. Surveyed the house and the children playing in the yard beforehand. Planned it out.
Granted, Duncan is the exception - by far - but I will never get that out of my mind.
Statistically, Terri specifically is the most likely perp in this case. For ranking the order of most likely to least likely, I just don't know right now which spot to put stranger and non-stranger in. I seem to have a lot of perp-types in my second most likely spot.
I agree.
I also keep thinking of Ted Bundy, who snatched not just one but two victims out of or very near schools.
His last victim, Kimberly Leach, in particular seems to me to apply. Looked at from one direction, the whole thing was unlikely: during school hours, complete stranger, etc. Who could have predicted Kimberly would forget her purse in her first class of the day? And what were the odds that an expert predator would be there just that moment to take advantage of that?
But if you look at it from the point of view of a predator, some opportunity was eventually going to present itself because he was actively looking for such opportunities. It could have been anyone who roughly fit his profile: female, young, attractive and in a place he could inconspicuously abduct her from. From Bundy's point of view, there was inevitably going to be a victim on that particular day.
Like you, I am uncertain as to how to rank possible perpetrators. It will be crystal clear in hindsight but that doesn't help right now.
cluciano63
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I wish I felt confident that we will ever know for sure what happened to Kyron. I know I won't feel sure, if Terri ends up convicted based on circumstantial evidence...
Probably not best to jump in as the voice of dissent as a newbie, but what about the statistics as to how unlikely the whole scenario is in the first place? Can you completely discount the like one in a million odds that something like that would happen in the first place to get to your starting point. I woud say the odds of a stranger abducting kyron from this particular location are closer to the one in a million, or at least one in the several hundred thousands. As opposed to the odds that he was taken by a family member and/or the last person who saw him. Those odds are way better imo.
DreamyEye
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My understanding is that pedophiles have many ways of choosing victims, and among the things they look for are inattentive parents, resentful parents, and kids who are already somewhat conditioned to sexual abuse or knowledge of it due to it having happened in their own families. And it's something to shudder about, all right.
Exactly. And they network.
Which is why the alleged MFH plot, or TH's sexting anyone, after Kyron was missing, has nothing to do with the chances of a pedophile having taken him. Why? Because all those things occurred *after* he was taken, and the pedophile, unless he could see the future, would have no knowledge of that, and therefore wouldn't be saying "hmmmm....stepmother sexts..." etc.
And I truly think that the Horman home was one with a lot of tension, fighting, and problems. Even KH acknowledged that, although he said they'd worked through their problems in a "positive" fashion.
When I saw the first press conference, I immediately said to myself: "Uh oh. That marriage is in bad shape. If they aren't already thinking about divorce, it's headed that way." There were so many clues. And there's one still photo in particular that tells the whole story. Plus some microexpressions and body langauge. JMO, of course.
In my opinion, KH had been figuring out a way to get out and keep his kids for quite awhile. DY's restraining order against him during their divorce said she was afraid he'd take the children, plural. But only one was his, and I found that "children" significant. Instead of saying "his child" or "our child."
And I also find it significant that KH had only his name on the house. If he put TH's Mustang in her name, or in both their names, that may be the only thing she owned after all these years. He had the income, and he had the house, and he had all the power, IMHO.
Given all that, and later on his allegations of TH drinking, and also TH being depressed, and then the pressures of a multi-parent situation and all the driving to and fro, to me creates a situation with a stressed family life.
And yes, pedophiles can pick up on kids in distressing situations. And if the perp is someone who knows the Hormans, that factor could have been part of the choosing.
Pedophiles teach each other how to fine-tune their radar to pick out a child with any distress, stress, or unhappiness in their lives that makes them more vulnerable than another child. And given, per KH, that they'd been working with Kyron on making sure he obeyed adults in school, he would have been easily led somewhere.
Pedophiles make me....beyond angry.
Snowden
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TH left her FB open to the public and played games on it, so she exposed herself and her family to a lot of people, possibly including pedo's. She could have knowingly or unknowingly exposed her kids and put Kyron in a very vulnerable situation. If Kaine had his FB page public too, then the pedo could have accessed what they wanted from there too.
This pedo could be someone local to the area, they could also be someone closely associated w/the school.
I still wonder how well LE has followed up on the school employees and their backgrounds. The perp could even have been someone with a "squeeky clean" one (meaning, hasn't been caught). I'm still thinking that Kyron knew this person, well enough to go w/them, as the pedo could have first become his and/or his family's "friend".
This pedo could be someone local to the area, they could also be someone closely associated w/the school.
I still wonder how well LE has followed up on the school employees and their backgrounds. The perp could even have been someone with a "squeeky clean" one (meaning, hasn't been caught). I'm still thinking that Kyron knew this person, well enough to go w/them, as the pedo could have first become his and/or his family's "friend".
debs
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I don't know if she left it open or opened it when Kyron disappeared. What I do know is that, in those first few days before it closed to friends only, it was full of people volunteering to help, discussing how they'd done this or that to get the word out, showing support for the family and asking what next they could do. Terri responded frequently that she sent a private message to those who offered to help. She discussed how to get fliers made, discussed where people could pick them up, and generally seemed to be running a full scale blitz to get the information that Kyron was missing please help.
But then, all anyone wanted to talk about is in the midst of all that, one post where she was "hitting the gym"....that same day that Kaine hit the gym with her. So if someone who was on Terri's FB page was a stranger....I don't know. While I think people do that sort of thing, I don't know that Terri suburban housewife is the obvious choice for a creeper to attach to....well nevermind. That proves false, doesn't it?
FWIW, Kaine's FB was public when I saw it.
And I agree with you--I'd like to know how well all school employees have been checked out.
I'm not sure where you are getting those numbers? Personally, I can't discount stranger or acquaintance abduction based on statistics. It happens. Some of the theories I've read involving Terri seem less likely to me than than the theory that it could be an stranger abduction. jmoo
Calliope
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That's what concerns me.
How many times do we see a news story about some upstanding businessman, community leader, "good" neighbor, etc., who turns out to be involved in child *advertiser censored* or pedophilia? And how many children were victimized before these people were caught? (reference the recent architect from Portland --- ten thousand child *advertiser censored* downloads)
In that report on the pedophile playbook, it's said that these people average over 100 children victimized in their lifetimes. We're obviously not catching them all, and there are obviously a lot of kids falling through the cracks.
While researching the LCC burglary and Skyline, I found another childcare organization, in addition to LCC, that shares the same address with Skyline Elementary. I decided against posting the name of the program, but I'll list some of the details.
Before & Afterschool Enrichment Program for Kindergarten-6th Graders
Onsite at the Skyline Elementary School
Hours of Operation
September through June, Monday - Friday

K-6 Before School Care Program 7:00 am - 8:45 am 

K-6 Afterschool Care Program 3:00 pm - 6:00 pm
Onsite at the Skyline Elementary School
Hours of Operation
September through June, Monday - Friday

K-6 Before School Care Program 7:00 am - 8:45 am 

K-6 Afterschool Care Program 3:00 pm - 6:00 pm
The Before School program is open from 7:00AM to 8:45AM. According to the programs handbook, the Skyline cafeteria is where this program takes place. Parents and children are suppose to enter through the Skyline cafeteria doors. (not sure if this means the doors near the main entrance or near the back lot). Was the program operating on June 4, 2010? According to their schedule they would be open that day, but according to their handbook there has to be at least 5 children enrolled for the program to be open on any particular day. According to the organization's site, background checks are done for both teachers and volunteers.
Portland Public Schools have onsite Before and After programs provided by licensed child care providers. This year PPS is requiring parents to sign a release form before their children can join in these programs.
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