Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[MesquiteO21]

This is what I am wondering about.

I always thought that the perpetrator:
1) either had a potential target
2) or, confused the houses
3) or maybe, it was out of rage but somehow, he needed to know/observe the family

What if the situation indeed includes two people?

I don't know about the base, I think it is a red herring because this information has appeared recently, but what if there indeed were two people:

- one watched the house or the inhabitants, or, like @Sor Juana mentioned, all you need is to have minimal information about the inhabitants' habits

Or, there is a lot of information one can get from the park if one merges in with the observers, and really, really, doesn't stand out at all? A mom with kids, or an old guy, anyone.

To get into the house, one has to be slim and lithe and fit
To kill the inhabitants, rather trained (or having the habits of the killer - maybe he enjoys it?)

But what really surprises me is as if the goals differ:

1) - to kill four people. That's our typical case, a SK, a sadist, a torturer... whoever. Half of our traits are about this case

2) the second part is about searching for something. That something is small and has value. It is difficult to trace.

I don't know what it could be. An family heirloom - an award from WWII times? Can be sold on any Axis forum. Or, a piece of jewelry. A jade bracelet now costs a premium, for example. Or, good Japanese pearls? Or, even an old sketch of a Japanese master?

I honestly don't know how and where the TMPD lifted the fingerprints, but I wonder if they, too, could be planted intentionally? The DNA is probably real, because at that time, the murderer could not know the future value of the DNA. The "whorls" might have no value.

I wonder if there was a second person, a "spotter" or a "tipster" that provided the information. The killing was really, to leave no traces.

Why didn't he repeat the murders? Well, perhaps there is no sense in it because they became better at stealing? Nowadays, there is more information online.

I wonder what exactly was taken or what did the pattern of search hinted at? Maybe it is in someone's collection now? Also, what expensive Japanese trinkets could be sold on Ebay soon after?

my only problem with the second perp theory is that police haven't indicated they suspect that...unless that would be something they are keeping secret for some reason? reports seem to indicate the DNA found in the house only belonged to one perp. But like you mentioned maybe there was a "spotter" and police aren't even aware there was another person involved.

from what i've found, some money was taken (not all i don't think?) but i haven't seen anything about whether objects were missing. papers were found strewn about so it kind of reads to me like a fake/staged robbery.

i just can't shake the feeling that Rei being killed first and with a different method is significant and probably the key. The most straightforward, logical, Occam's Razor meaning of that, to me, is that he was the target probably for a kidnapping/abduction and it went awry. Police suspect there was a scuffle between Rei and the perp and that's what caused Mikio to come up the stairs. But if the perp entered Rei's room with the intent to just kill him off the bat, i'm confident he'd be able to very quickly and easily incapacitate an unsuspecting child and there wouldn't have been much of a struggle. But if he wanted to take Rei alive, Rei would have the chance to struggle and fight. JMO.

 

[FlowersInBloom]

my only problem with the second perp theory is that police haven't indicated they suspect that...unless that would be something they are keeping secret for some reason? reports seem to indicate the DNA found in the house only belonged to one perp. But like you mentioned maybe there was a "spotter" and police aren't even aware there was another person involved.

from what i've found, some money was taken (not all i don't think?) but i haven't seen anything about whether objects were missing. papers were found strewn about so it kind of reads to me like a fake/staged robbery.

i just can't shake the feeling that Rei being killed first and with a different method is significant and probably the key. The most straightforward, logical, Occam's Razor meaning of that, to me, is that he was the target probably for a kidnapping/abduction and it went awry. Police suspect there was a scuffle between Rei and the perp and that's what caused Mikio to come up the stairs. But if the perp entered Rei's room with the intent to just kill him off the bat, i'm confident he'd be able to very quickly and easily incapacitate an unsuspecting child and there wouldn't have been much of a struggle. But if he wanted to take Rei alive, Rei would have the chance to struggle and fight. JMO.

Yes I agree here that the TMPD likely know much, much more than the info they release… Faceless also says many conversations happened between him and the former chief “off record” so I don’t believe they’ve released absolutely everything… perhaps they have answers to many questions we ask here but for some reason they don’t release the info.
The balcony for example is always talked about but zero reports publicly, however it is such an obvious thing to check I would be very shocked if the TMPD didn’t. Yet they don’t talk about that. Could mean nothing could mean something.
Any ideas?

As for Rei… the killer came in with a knife so had the intent to use it, so my thinking the strangulation was because he was a helpless child sleeping and to keep the element of surprise longer.
However… while it doesn’t take a whole lot to make someone pass out by choking it does take a while to actually kill them. For Rei to actually die I believe the constant pressure would have had to have been more than a few minutes. During that time I’m assuming Rei would have thrashed about and kicked. Those bunk beds were child sized and small and the walls wooden… a good kick to the wall could’ve alerted Mikio to something…

So I wonder here if the killer really just wanted to keep the element of surprise as long as possible rather than going in with stabbing right away…

Any thoughts appreciated here…

 

[Sor Juana]

I wonder if TMPD looked at all thrift stores where they sold these bags. Maybe the owner knows something. Perhaps Mikio or more likely, Yasuko asked him to appraise something bought elsewhere.

RSBM. Such bags were on sale at discount stores across Kanto from 1995 to 1999. I'm not sure that thrift stores actually resell cheap items. My impression has been that they resell used items that are of reasonable quality, although anything is possible, of course.

 

[Sor Juana]

I spoke with a good friend who's a former high school wrestling coach. When I asked him if a fairly skilled wrestler could subdue 4 slightly built people, his reply was "Easily. They could probably take down 4 people built like you." I'm average build.

I'm not saying the killer is neccessarily a wrestler. Just saying with the right skills and mindset, it's definitely possible. As a grown man, I wouldn't stand a chance against a well built teenager. We believe the POI was well built and athletic to be able to climb through the rear window, as commonly suspected.

Per Wikipedia doesn't even require great physical strength:

Blood chokes (or carotid restraints / sleeper holds) are a form of strangulation that compress one or both carotid arteries and/or the jugular veins without compressing the airway, hence causing cerebral ischemia and a temporary hypoxic condition in the brain. A well-applied blood choke may lead to unconsciousness in 10–20 seconds. Injury or death is plausible if the arteries remain constricted for several minutes or more.Compared to strangulation with the hands, properly applied blood chokes require little physical strength.

The killer ultimately opted for a knife, causing considerable mess and noise. According to reports, the cuts made were primarily vertical, running from top to bottom, and they were standing out amongst other cuts. This technique using a thin sashimi knife aimed at the head (face) and continuing downward, contrasts with the targeting of carotids and other arteries (by combat knife) typically taught in the military. It reflects a method distinct to certain Asian martial arts schools, discernible enough to distinguish it from random stabbing wounds.

My point is, the killer likely possessed training in martial arts rather than disciplines like judo, sumo, or jiu-jitsu. If proficient in judo, he would have likely executed his actions silently. However, his skills (not impressive though) suggest a different expertise. JMO.

 

[Charlot123]

.

Yes I agree here that the TMPD likely know much, much more than the info they release… Faceless also says many conversations happened between him and the former chief “off record” so I don’t believe they’ve released absolutely everything… perhaps they have answers to many questions we ask here but for some reason they don’t release the info.
The balcony for example is always talked about but zero reports publicly, however it is such an obvious thing to check I would be very shocked if the TMPD didn’t. Yet they don’t talk about that. Could mean nothing could mean something.
Any ideas?

As for Rei… the killer came in with a knife so had the intent to use it, so my thinking the strangulation was because he was a helpless child sleeping and to keep the element of surprise longer.
However… while it doesn’t take a whole lot to make someone pass out by choking it does take a while to actually kill them. For Rei to actually die I believe the constant pressure would have had to have been more than a few minutes. During that time I’m assuming Rei would have thrashed about and kicked. Those bunk beds were child sized and small and the walls wooden… a good kick to the wall could’ve alerted Mikio to something…

So I wonder here if the killer really just wanted to keep the element of surprise as long as possible rather than going in with stabbing right away…

Any thoughts appreciated here…

I would like to know if, the way Mikio was sitting, the light in the first floor computer area could even be seen from the outside? Or, if there even was the light, as some people can browse sites in the darkness? But could the light in PC room, be even seen from either the front of the house of from the back?

At the front, there was a unparked car. Theoretically, from the top of the car, to the balcony and inside could be the easy way in.

JMO, the attack was organized from the side where the light in PC room was not seen. What the murderer sees, if he observes the house, is the light in the attic that goes off (if Niina was not feeling well, Yasuko probably took her upstairs, gave her the medication and switched off the light.)

If I am not mistaken, the PC room is nothing but a tiny nook in the middle of the first floor. With a tiny source of light, if that. The murderer outside would not see Mikio and assume that whatever tiny bit of linght was there, was coming from the screen of the monitor.

So the way it might have looked for the perpetrator, the light was off in the house. It the intruder knew that Niina was upstairs and Rei, in his bed alone, and then the target was Rei (possible, for mere abduction). If he didn’t know that Niina was upstairs, then she was the target, and it seems more likely.

I don’t know how dark the kids’ room was. Could the perpetrator not notice that there was one kid in the room instead of two? If there is even a remote possibility of this scenario, maybe, he planned to quietly kill Rei first (for Rei not to wake up) and assault Niina?

Niina was a “off-factor” that night. I try to proceed from there.

JMO - the murderer is unaware that Mikio was in the PC room, attacked Rei with whatever plan, then Mikio was alerted and went to look at Rei. In this case, the murderer still could kill him Mikio quietly, by attacking from the back (choking and cutting? I don’t know how Mikio was killed). Very little sound at this point.

Now, another unusual fact is Niina’s medication. Was it a cough syrup? An antihistamine drug? Something that makes one sleepy, perhaps.

If so, then there could be less noise than expected: Niina could be asleep, and Yasuko, sleepy, too (could she have taken a bit of the same medication for prevention?)

Then, the thud of the ladder could be the murderer going upstairs?

We don’t know during what assault he cut himself. I wonder if Yasuko and Niina were so dazed that they didn’t act quick, didn’t yell or run or called the police. But the kid’s illness could have changed everything.

So: the target could have been Rei, and the mistake, that the perpetrator assumed Mikio was asleep. The attack on Mikio woke up Yasuko, she and Niina went down the stairs, to protect dad, and the rest happened spontaneously.

Or, the attack could have been on Niina, only on realizing that Niina was upstairs, not in Rei’s room, he pulled the ladder to go to the attic.

One of the two kids, and maybe he didn’t plan to kill them initially?

There is, indeed, some “asymmetry” in the viciousness of the attack. Either the murderer, indeed, didn’t like women, or, on the contrary, the anger with which he attacked Niina and Yasuko was the substitution of the SA.

I am assuming that for Rei, he didn’t need to get upstairs.

 

[marv hucker]

Hello! My first post here so I apologize if I post anything obtuse/unacceptable. I've been really interested in this case and have been following it for quite a while. Reading all the threads on this site gave me a lot of information. I really appreciate everyone's amazing commentary, information, and hard work!

I understand it's already been pointed out, however I will say as someone interested in archaeogenetics... haplogroups are not an accurate way to identify someone's genetic identity at all. It simply indicates a certain ancestor in your genetic line existed once upon a time and passed down that haplogroup to you. I'm of Asian descent, all my relatives are Asian, my genetic line is essentially Asian for hundreds and hundreds of years (which can be proven) yet my haplogroups are both considered 'European', e.g. more commonly found in European people.

With that being said, I will say that the killer's paternal haplogroup, O-M122, is decidedly East Asian in origin. It's most commonly found in the Chinese... which is odd, considering the research given to us by those associated with the case said it was most commonly found amongst Koreans. I just want to mention that the modern Japanese genetic cluster is said to be the most similar with the Korean one; in a haplotype-based study, the Japanese cluster was found to share 87–94% of its genetic components with the Korean cluster, compared with a Han Chinese result of only 0–8%. A lot of Japanese who have performed genetic tests from major companies get confused when their DNA comes back with a large proportion of Korean.

I'm not really too fussed about the maternal haplogroup (H15) of the killer... it just means that somewhere in his genetic line there is a woman that introduced this haplogroup into his maternal line. I did some research as well and whilst it's true that this maternal haplogroup is commonly found amongst populations in European countries, Central Asia, and some Middle Eastern countries, some individuals from China have also reported carrying this haplogroup. Again, we also don't know the specific subclade of the killer.

I do think obtaining DNA samples and running them through a genetic testing software would be extremely helpful. I know this cannot be done... as of right now. It may not give us the exact identity of the killer but it would be beneficial in understanding who his relatives/ancestors are. For example, relatives possessing Japanese surnames vs. foreign surnames.

I cannot really speculate if the killer is mixed race or not, as many people believe, but I won't say it's impossible. What I can say is that the killer has an East Asian father and he also likely has a very East Asian appearance. I actually looked into the Yokota yearbook archives that were posted a few pages back and tried to find possible clues. Some people on here have said they found things that were very interesting. I frankly couldn't. I was looking for a male with an East Asian surname (Chinese, Korean, Japanese, etc), with a very East Asian appearance. Whilst some fit the mark, their hobbies/interests threw me off. I am definitely curious about the POI everyone is alluding to, but I understand the hush-hush nature and not wanting to throw anyone under the bus, so to speak.

Anyway, here's to hoping we only get more helpful clues, hints, leads, and most importantly a concrete answer eventually. ☺

Re- the haplogroup stuff.
Could / would it be a case of science (and datasets) advancing since some of these facts were publicised?

 

[FlowersInBloom]

I would like to know if, the way Mikio was sitting, the light in the first floor computer area could even be seen from the outside? Or, if there even was the light, as some people can browse sites in the darkness? But could the light in PC room, be even seen from either the front of the house of from the back?

So: the target could have been Rei, and the mistake, that the perpetrator assumed Mikio was asleep. The attack on Mikio woke up Yasuko, she and Niina went down the stairs, to protect dad, and the rest happened spontaneously.

RSBM. From what I’ve seen there are two windows on the side of the house facing out, and one on the side facing the garage… Mikio would sit facing the two windows. I think if the curtains were not drawn then light would be seen from inside from either the actual lights or the computer screen. But if they were drawn and the lights off and just the computer screen light was on… it’s possible to think from outside that no one is awake inside right?

Would you imagine Rei’s bedroom and the attic to have the light on if they were all sleeping? Usually no I feel like… so I wonder how much of the house was in darkness when the killer entered. Did he go inside in complete darkness and think they were all sleeping I wonder? And that could explain the stealthy killing of Rei by strangulation, but the noise alerted Mikio who was still awake downstairs maybe unbeknownst to the killer. Could explain a few things…

As for Niina and Yasuko, their blood was found on the futon in the attic so they were definitely attacked up there rather than coming down the ladder first.

 

[Charlot123]

RSBM. From what I’ve seen there are two windows on the side of the house facing out, and one on the side facing the garage… Mikio would sit facing the two windows. I think if the curtains were not drawn then light would be seen from inside from either the actual lights or the computer screen. But if they were drawn and the lights off and just the computer screen light was on… it’s possible to think from outside that no one is awake inside right?

Would you imagine Rei’s bedroom and the attic to have the light on if they were all sleeping? Usually no I feel like… so I wonder how much of the house was in darkness when the killer entered. Did he go inside in complete darkness and think they were all sleeping I wonder? And that could explain the stealthy killing of Rei by strangulation, but the noise alerted Mikio who was still awake downstairs maybe unbeknownst to the killer. Could explain a few things…

As for Niina and Yasuko, their blood was found on the futon in the attic so they were definitely attacked up there rather than coming down the ladder first.

It could be that the curtains were drawn. Probably the neighbors would remember?
I think that Rei was a deep sleeper. It could be quite possible that the goal was to abduct him or incapacitate so that he wouldn’t yell and abduct Niina. If Niina’s piano was there, he could assume that she slept there, too.
Either way, if Rei was the intended target and Mikio, just a victim, there was absolutely no need to go upstairs and overkill unless, indeed, the perpetrator was looking for Niina.

I am going to check the phase of the moon on that day.

Here: Moon Phase on December 30 2000 - MoonPhases.org.

Waxing crescent. Illumination less than 20%. Do we know if there were lights on their street? Lanterns?

 

[FlowersInBloom]

It could be that the curtains were drawn. Probably the neighbors would remember?
I think that Rei was a deep sleeper. It could be quite possible that the goal was to abduct him or incapacitate so that he wouldn’t yell and abduct Niina. If Niina’s piano was there, he could assume that she slept there, too.
Either way, if Rei was the intended target and Mikio, just a victim, there was absolutely no need to go upstairs and overkill unless, indeed, the perpetrator was looking for Niina.

I am going to check the phase of the moon on that day.

Here: Moon Phase on December 30 2000 - MoonPhases.org.

Waxing crescent. Illumination less than 20%. Do we know if there were lights on their street? Lanterns?

From what I can tell yes the street was illuminated. From previous threads there was even a lamp directly behind the bathroom window that would have shone onto it… but how bright it was in 2000 I don’t know. The park behind the house was full of lamps.
Opposite there were tennis grounds, skate parks etc, so it’s safe to say street lamps were likely everywhere along the street…

But even so, the house attached may have had lights on at the time even if the Miyazawa’s didn’t… or perhaps they were all off? At 11pm I feel like there would have been some lights on somewhere though. It’s not that late IMO.

 

[BatataPoha]

My thoughts on various topics here.

1) The 2nd perp theory has literally no evidence.

I don’t even know for what exactly we need a 2nd perp. We can extend that to 3,4,5,6 folks all standing outside the house, unseen and unnoticed. Imo, zero evidence links to a 2nd guy involved. Infact this would be even more incredibly shoddy if there are 2 or more guys involved here.

2) Re: clothes - I don’t mind the theory that the killer could be a random Japanese guy. One reason why so many believe in the foreign military brat is coz of the sand and the killer not getting apprehended despite the TMPD. And yet the latter part could be completely a matte of luck/ chance and as far as the sand thing, the Miyazawas have been to the exact same places. So it isn’t exactly uncommon for a Japanese guy to have that kinda sand in my view.

It is however super interesting that he doesn’t attempt to destroy his stuff in any way. No burning, throwing them in cola, detergent, submersion, pooping, or any sort of thing.

No attempt whatsoever, despite the fact that he does infact sully some documents and the belongings of the Miyazawas. That shows some incredible confidence from a presumably first time killer about him not being traced.

3) Re: sanitary pads being natural to use to stop bleeding.

I beg to differ here. It would have been much easier for the killer to use his own handkerchief (he has two with him) or Miyazawas clothes from inside their cupboards. Even if he had concerns about sterility, he could have simply heated them in boiling water, or doused them in some kinda antiseptic.

These kinds of methods are what are shown in movies or pop culture in nomal life. If someone did this, especially if they are actively bleeding out, then I would consider this to be far more usual than anyone actively seeking out sanitary pads that weren’t even readily available to the killer.


4) the abduction or SA of the kids motive also doesn’t make much sense to me. Ultimately the killer had the opportunity to do more evil stuff and he didn’t (thankfully) so attributing this to his already gruesome crimes seems like an overreach to me.

5) the killer doesn’t demonstrate any good method of grappling one on one. Infact he is afraid to go after the mom and the young girl with his broken knife. I highly doubt this is someone skilled in any kind of combat skills.

It is more than likely his upper body strength comes from some different kinda activity- possibly something like tennis.

 

[Cryptic]

Is Daniel the only child or the youngest child in the family?

I am thinking..... only child.

Inherently, Daniel was not inclined towards positive socialization with his peers- or anybody else for that matter- especially those holding any kind of authority.

Daniel's status as an only child, however, may of added to his poor socialization skills. His lack of siblings eliminated the potential for positive interaction in a home environment. Likewise, Daniel never had to share, never had to wait, and was the sole focus of his parent's attention. These elements led to expectations that Daniel did not need given his core personality.

Following the crime, the lack of siblings may of contributed to his ability evade justice. No siblings equated to fewer people to notice something before- or after the crime. Then whisper about it to friends, and then.... friends of friends, and then perhaps a teacher.

 

[Sor Juana]

Sanitary pads

Sanitary pads were first used to stop wound bleeding during WWI when nurses used absorbent cellulose bandages, known as Cellucotton, on soldiers' wounds. This practice continued in WWII. While there isn’t a precise record of when they were officially recommended for military personnel, soldiers and medics have used them informally for their absorbency.

In sports, athletes and trainers have used sanitary pads to manage cuts and abrasions for decades due to their practicality. Though not formally recommended by sports bodies, their use is well-known for being effective in stopping bleeding.

Clothes

The killer spent a few hours in the house. During this time, he could have used the Miyazawas' washing machine to clean his stained clothes. It’s unclear if they had a dryer, which would have made things easier, but if not, he could have dried his clothes with an iron. But the killer did not spend any time doing this. Did he know how to operate a washing machine? Perhaps he was young and fully taken care of at home; he was lacking the skills developed in the army. Alternatively, his household might not have had an advanced washing machine like the Miyazawas'. Whatever the reason, the killer did not show any capability of keeping things in order; he made a mess and left it behind.

Water hardness

Suppose the killer was fully taken care of at home—his meals were prepared, and his clothes were washed by his mother. This likely means he had no understanding of water hardness or that water characteristics vary by location. It appears he lived in an area of Tokyo or nearby where the water hardness was high, excluding places like Yokota, Setagaya, or any metropolitan area. Forensic analysis established this, and any scenario must account for it.

Kidnapping and 2nd perp

In my view, the kidnapping angle has merit. If this scenario is to be further developed, a 2nd perp would be required—someone who waited outside in a car, as having a vehicle is essential in a kidnapping operation. This person could also have orchestrated the entire crime and been the primary beneficiary. Statistically, children are usually snatched outside, as it's the easiest way to hide a child in a van and drive away. Another reason to consider a 2nd perp is that the killer did not appear particularly bright, suggesting he could have benefited from a more experienced mentor.

JMO

 

[Sor Juana]

JMO, the attack was organized from the side where the light in PC room was not seen. What the murderer sees, if he observes the house, is the light in the attic that goes off (if Niina was not feeling well, Yasuko probably took her upstairs, gave her the medication and switched off the light.)

If I am not mistaken, the PC room is nothing but a tiny nook in the middle of the first floor. With a tiny source of light, if that. The murderer outside would not see Mikio and assume that whatever tiny bit of linght was there, was coming from the screen of the monitor.

So the way it might have looked for the perpetrator, the light was off in the house. It the intruder knew that Niina was upstairs and Rei, in his bed alone, and then the target was Rei (possible, for mere abduction). If he didn’t know that Niina was upstairs, then she was the target, and it seems more likely.

RSBM
I also noticed from the old photos available on the thread that the house wasn't very well lit, and the nearby tree cast a shadow. So if the killer used the bathroom window, no matter how visible that part of the house may look in the photo, at night in that dim light, his silhouette could appear like a shadow from a distance. Maybe he indeed did not see the light coming from Mikio's room and went there thinking they were asleep. Perhaps then he heard noises coming from Mikio's room, and maybe Rei wasn't asleep. Rei was found face down, but his body was off his bed, indicating some movement. If he had immediately choked Rei in bed, Rei would likely have been in his sleeping position, covered by a blanket as if he were asleep.

We don’t know during what assault he cut himself. I wonder if Yasuko and Niina were so dazed that they didn’t act quick, didn’t yell or run or called the police. But the kid’s illness could have changed everything.

From what I understand, the sashimi knife broke during the attack on Mikio, with a tip of the blade being lodged in Mikio's head. It's possible the killer injured his own hand at that time. Afterward, he went to get another kitchen knife. Yasuko and Niina being dazed could explain why they didn't react promptly, didn't scream, and didn't call the police. It was such an unlucky coincidence—the timing, their sickness, and all that. Nobody expected a monster inside the house at that hour.

JMO

 

[Auntie Cipation]

A few thoughts and questions about the ladder:

Would it make the same thump in either direction, ie opening as well as closing? Or just thump upon lowering but not on raising?

I would assume that the ladder would normally stay open whenever people are up in the sleeping area -- for quick egress for bathroom needs or in case of fire. Does anyone think they would normally have closed the ladder even while the sleeping area is occupied, perhaps because it blocked the passageway at the bottom?

I find myself wondering whether Yasuko might have left the ladder open but then tried to quietly close it when she heard Mikio being attacked, to try to hide herself and Niina. Then the audible thump might have been the killer opening the ladder to be able to reach them?

Other ideas or disagreements?

 

[FlowersInBloom]

@Auntie Cipation I was thinking about this too… since Mikio also sleeps in the attic, would the ladder be down waiting for him to go to bed or already pulled up? From photos when the ladder is down it makes it very difficult to walk on the landing and would be in the way of moving between the bathroom and kitchen for example… so perhaps up?
If ladder was left down it mean Niina and Yasuko must’ve been aware of what was happening and perhaps pulled it back up or tried to hide up there? Terrifying to imagine up there… and also the killer managed to manoeuvre around it to kill Mikio on the stairs too. But totally possible I guess.

@Sor Juana could I have your link for the forensic information about the water hardness? I can’t find it anywhere but I’m limited to one language unfortunately unless I use internet translation… many thanks!

 

[FlowersInBloom]

I am thinking..... only child.

Inherently, Daniel was not inclined towards positive socialization with his peers- or anybody else for that matter- especially those holding any kind of authority.

Daniel's status as an only child, however, may of added to his poor socialization skills. His lack of siblings eliminated the potential for positive interaction in a home environment. Likewise, Daniel never had to share, never had to wait, and was the sole focus of his parent's attention. These elements led to expectations that Daniel did not need given his core personality.

Following the crime, the lack of siblings may of contributed to his ability evade justice. No siblings equated to fewer people to notice something before- or after the crime. Then whisper about it to friends, and then.... friends of friends, and then perhaps a teacher.

Thank you for all your ideas @Cryptic. I want to ask you about your opinion on the opposite… an over-achiever and someone who is always first at everything and never fails. Someone that got the highest grades in school, holds himself in high-esteem, cocky and thinks he can get away with doing anything…
But something happens to cause him to snap and, since he’s always used to winning and achieving what he wants, commits the murder out of rage and fury. What would your opinion on that be? Based on POI of a son of an American military man.

If this person knew he was leaving Japan or had a way out of Japan quickly, could he commit the murder and then leave the base undetected? Not by the people on the base, but by the country outside of it?

Thanks for your opinion as always!

 

[Auntie Cipation]

@Auntie Cipation I was thinking about this too… since Mikio also sleeps in the attic, would the ladder be down waiting for him to go to bed or already pulled up? From photos when the ladder is down it makes it very difficult to walk on the landing and would be in the way of moving between the bathroom and kitchen for example… so perhaps up?
If ladder was left down it mean Niina and Yasuko must’ve been aware of what was happening and perhaps pulled it back up or tried to hide up there? Terrifying to imagine up there… and also the killer managed to manoeuvre around it to kill Mikio on the stairs too. But totally possible I guess.

But once all family members sleeping upstairs were in place, why would they pull up the ladder? Wouldn't the need for bathroom access at night (and fast egress in case of fire) cause them to leave it down at night?

Also would it feel weird for only Rei to be left sleeping downstairs, since Niina was ill and with the parents? All other family members except me being upstairs would have made me scared when I was Rei's age, which makes me wonder if Mikio might have planned to sleep downstairs that night. Also to not catch Niina's illness.

MOO and speculation

 

[Sor Juana]

@Sor Juana could I have your link for the forensic information about the water hardness? I can’t find it anywhere but I’m limited to one language unfortunately unless I use internet translation… many thanks!

source

There were references in some YT videos and on the wiki, though the wiki pages have been modified several times in the past few months. Earlier threads also discussed the water being hard and possibly Korean, adding to the argument about the 'Korean shoes.'

 

[Charlot123]

But once all family members sleeping upstairs were in place, why would they pull up the ladder? Wouldn't the need for bathroom access at night (and fast egress in case of fire) cause them to leave it down at night?

Also would it feel weird for only Rei to be left sleeping downstairs, since Niina was ill and with the parents? All other family members except me being upstairs would have made me scared when I was Rei's age, which makes me wonder if Mikio might have planned to sleep downstairs that night. Also to not catch Niina's illness.

MOO and speculation

My thoughts exactly. Some people would periodically sleep downstairs, and the reasons for it are not always related to specific situations or kids' illnesses. It may be merely an issue of “comfort."

I wonder on what floor the neighbors heard the “thud”. If in the third, the ladder was probably lifted up (retracted), if on the second, then, pulled down.

I suspect that the thud was at the second floor, only because the Miyazawas, over the years, got used to be mindful of the kids, themselves and the next door neighbors. If anything, they probably maneuvered the ladder rather quietly. At the same time, it is hard to imagine them lifting it up at all for the night, given that both kids would normally be on the second floor. I assume that the ladder would be retracted at the daytime, and all the life would be at the second/first floors.

Several questions. I assume the relatives next door may know the answer to them.

1) the garage was used for the car, but the police mentioned something about Mikio taking work (theater costumes) home. If any actor would visit the house to work at the stage costume, would Mikio work in the garage? If so, then on such days, would he park the car at the front of the house?
2) how typical would it be for Mikio to park the car at the front? For the day? For the night?
3) would the Miyazawas customarily sleep with the ladder down, and retract it back for the day? Or would they typically separate the second floor and the attic at night?
4) it would seem to me that the family was habit-driven. Would they usually draw the curtains for the night? Were the curtains heavy enough?
5) where would the family charge their cellphones?
6) Mikio was described to wear street clothes, but now we know it rather means that he was wearing house clothes, not pajamas. From house clothes, there are three options:
- getting upstairs and putting pajamas on
- staying at the first/second floor (using some futon or something else for sleep) and changing into pajamas
- putting on street clothes and going outside via the front, or the garage, door
Where was Mikio’s pajama found?

 

[FlowersInBloom]

But once all family members sleeping upstairs were in place, why would they pull up the ladder? Wouldn't the need for bathroom access at night (and fast egress in case of fire) cause them to leave it down at night?

Also would it feel weird for only Rei to be left sleeping downstairs, since Niina was ill and with the parents? All other family members except me being upstairs would have made me scared when I was Rei's age, which makes me wonder if Mikio might have planned to sleep downstairs that night. Also to not catch Niina's illness.

MOO and speculation

Yeah I agree with you here honestly. It would make the most sense the ladder was down the entire time… I wouldn’t necessarily find it weird that both parents and Niina would be in one bed but Rei wasn’t, especially if she was unwell, but the ladder when your 6 year old is alone on the level below wouldn’t be up… it would be down. And as you say, maybe the parents did pull it up during the night time anyway…

Therefore we can likely conclude Niina and Yasuko heard, and possibly saw, the whole thing before the killer went up the ladder to attack them too. Hearing a struggle and someone falling down the stairs you’d naturally call out to someone I feel… perhaps that alerted him to people being in the attic too.