Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[FacelessPodcast]

A lot of people have come to believe that the killer has strong ties to Korea for some reason, and I've seen this haplogroup data being spread around as a possible link.

I have always said that we don't know the killer's ethnic background and constantly disputed basing assumptions from the wikipedia article. Yet it plainly IS possible the killer was Korean or of Korean descent. Or do you suggest that Dr. M just glanced at the haplogroups and drew a concrete conclusion, without doing multiple tests? That he is wholly misguided and nobody in 24 years anyone has realised this? That the TMPD asked him for a second opinion, of the some 800 universities in Japan, at random?

We do not know the killer's ethnic background. There is a chance he is Korean, Chinese, Japanese, or anything else. But the only person (let alone expert) outside of the TMPD to analyse that DNA felt that likelihood decreased in order. So with respect to your interest in archaeogenetics, I don't think his analysis can be rejected out of hand. Or if it can, please provide some evidence. Short of that, this argument becomes circular.

This data may have just been written and leaked by someone related to the university or something. I have no association to any individual that you mentioned and I obviously respect anyone's hard work.

But it's still wrong.

What is unhelpful is to assume error or shortcoming without having the full understanding of the work. Moreover, the word "may" is a modal verb that expresses possibility, thereby implying the existence of an alternative scenario. There is no alternative scenario. If I say the data was leaked, then the data was leaked. It is a fact which I have verified from multiple sources. Arguing with the author of the thread is contrary to TOC.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Where is the haplogroup O-M122 information coming from? Is it the same leak that gave us “1 in 4 Koreans”? If so, is it possible that the leak left out important information (such as a subclade) or simply contained errors or falsehoods?

The haplogroups are mentioned on the wikipedia page. The TMPD asked them to remove this, Wikipedia refused unless it could be shown it was incorrect. And yes, what was leaked was the report from Dr. M for the TMPD when they approached him for a second opinion. As I understand it, it was detailed with the caveat that Japan lacks general comparative data to match against.

 

[Hausos]

Where is the haplogroup O-M122 information coming from? Is it the same leak that gave us “1 in 4 Koreans”? If so, is it possible that the leak left out important information (such as a subclade) or simply contained errors or falsehoods?

I got the haplogroups from someone on this thread, and it's also on the Wiki.

It is considered possible that the European maternal DNA comes from a distant ancestor from the mother's line rather than a fully European mother. Analysis of the Y-chromosome showed the Haplogroup O-M122, a common haplogroup distributed in East Asian peoples, appearing in 1 in 4 or 5 Koreans, 1 in 10 Chinese, and 1 in 13 Japanese.[18] These results led to TMPD to seek assistance through the International Criminal Police Organization as the killer may not be Japanese or present in Japan.

Setagaya family murder - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But the issue is Wikis can be edited by anyone.

Hopefully the haplogroup data is true because it kind of gives an idea to look at POIs with E. Asian or SE. Asian fathers/family names, because this haplogroup and its subclades are virtually nonexistent in populations that are not SE. Asian or E. Asian.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Legally, a US military base overseas is considered American soil. So if a kid shoplifts at the BX, the MPs have authority to arrest them or whatever.

If the kid shoplifts in Tokyo, and is caught, he can be arrested by the local police. However, if he runs back to base, the local police do not have authority/jurisdiction to come on base and arrest them. That’s where things get sticky.

RSBM: Thanks for your insight @cenazoic. Super interesting! From the interviews I've done with former professors / staff at Yokota AFB, they all said pretty much the same thing. When kids from the base were involved in crimes off-base and the TMPD came to the base, they were sweet-talked away with the promise that the kids would be dealt with internally. This actually included one kid who was being bullied and ended up stabbing someone fatally. Which is interesting that the TMPD would walk away from a murder (even if there would possibly be extenuating factors).

As a possible point of interest, military members overseas are technically bound to 3 different legal systems:

- American laws based on the Constitution
- the UCMJ (Uniform Code of Military Justice) - military rules and regulations members are bound by and
- the laws of the host country when off-base.

In general, if you, a US service member, commit a crime in a foreign country, any punishment is likely to be administered via court martial (UCMJ), rather than by the host nation’s judiciary.

All that said - I don’t know how that plays out for dependents.

Yes, this is the point I've not been able to gain clarity on. If season 2 of the podcast is commissioned, I'll talk to a JAG lawyer just to hear the theoretical possibilities. What I know for certain is that if a killer were identified in this case, it would be the crime story of century in Japan, a real fire storm. The notion of him being tried in the US instead of being sent back to Japan to face justice would cause uproar.

 

[WhoDisDoe]

The haplogroups are mentioned on the wikipedia page. The TMPD asked them to remove this, Wikipedia refused unless it could be shown it was incorrect. And yes, what was leaked was the report from Dr. M for the TMPD when they approached him for a second opinion. As I understand it, it was detailed with the caveat that Japan lacks general comparative data to match against.

So if I understand correctly, that specific haplogroup isn’t even mentioned in the same leaked report? But maybe we can triangulate it’s likely correct since the TMPD backed down from Wikipedia’s challenge.

 

[WhoDisDoe]

I got the haplogroups from someone on this thread, and it's also on the Wiki.

Setagaya family murder - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But the issue is Wikis can be edited by anyone.

Hopefully the haplogroup data is true because it kind of gives an idea to look at POIs with E. Asian or SE. Asian fathers/family names, because this haplogroup and its subclades are virtually nonexistent in populations that are not SE. Asian or E. Asian.

If it’s coming from Wikipedia only, I’d place very little stock in it. I checked the citation for that information (an SCMP article) and didn’t see O-M122 mentioned anywhere.

 

[Hausos]

I have always said that we don't know the killer's ethnic background and constantly disputed basing assumptions from the wikipedia article. Yet it plainly IS possible the killer was Korean or of Korean descent. Or do you suggest that Dr. M just glanced at the haplogroups and drew a concrete conclusion, without doing multiple tests? That he is wholly misguided and nobody in 24 years that anyone has realised this? That the TMPD asked him for a second opinion, of the some 800 universities in Japan, at random?

We do not know the killer's ethnic background. There is a chance he is Korean, Chinese, Japanese, or anything else. But the only person (let alone expert) outside of the TMPD to analyse that DNA felt that likelihood decreased in order. So with respect to your interest in archaeogenetics, I don't think his analysis can be rejected out of hand. Or if it can, please provide some evidence. Short of that, this argument becomes circular.

What is unhelpful is to assume error or shortcoming without having the full understanding of the work. Moreover, the word "may" is a modal verb that expresses possibility, thereby implying the existence of an alternative scenario. There is no alternative scenario. If I say the data was leaked, then the data was leaked. It is a fact which I have verified from multiple sources. Arguing with the author of the thread is contrary to TOC.

The haplogroup being found in 1/4 Koreans at a far higher incidence than amongst the Chinese and Japanese is wrong info. Ofc, the killer could still be Korean.

Here's a research paper that elaborates on the incidence of the haplogroup in certain populations: Y-Chromosome Evidence of Southern Origin of the East Asian–Specific Haplogroup O3-M122

In East Asian populations, there are three regionally distributed (East Asian–specific) Y-chromosome haplogroups under the M175 lineage (fig. 1)—O3-M122, O2-M95, and O1-M119—together accounting for 57% of the Y chromosomes in East Asian populations (table 1). The O3-M122 has the highest frequency (41.8% on average) (fig. 2) in East Asians, especially in Han Chinese (52.06% in northern Han and 53.72% in southern Han) (table 1), and it is absent outside East Asia.

The research paper had a low Japanese sample size, but the findings did not show a difference as huge as the one that the Wiki article states.

It's possible that the original researcher is talking about a specific subclade, but looking at all the subclades across various research papers, the percentages given don't correlate.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

So if I understand correctly, that specific haplogroup isn’t even mentioned in the same leaked report? But maybe we can triangulate it’s likely correct since the TMPD backed down from Wikipedia’s challenge.

Dr. M spoke in some detail to us about the testing he did and what was in his report but he didn't want to be interviewed. That's why I'm not even using his full name (though he isn't exactly hard to find). I'm not exactly sure what the killer's haplogroups actually are but it's a reasonable conclusion.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

If it’s coming from Wikipedia only, I’d place very little stock in it. I checked the citation for that information (an SCMP article) and didn’t see O-M122 mentioned anywhere.

Exactly. I know Julian personally and I'll eat my hat if he spoke to Dr. M to write that article (at the time, his identity was unknown for one thing). One of the many problems with that wikipedia article, as I've said so many times.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

If it’s coming from Wikipedia only, I’d place very little stock in it. I checked the citation for that information (an SCMP article) and didn’t see O-M122 mentioned anywhere.

And actually, I think immediately after that, it mentions the TMPD then seeking assistance through the ICPO. This has no source or link and is mentioned nowhere by the TMPD. The only thing that is established is that the TMPD lodged the killer's fingerprints with Interpol. So the author, as far as we know, pulled that out of their derrière.

 

[WhoDisDoe]

And actually, I think immediately after that, it mentions the TMPD then seeking assistance through the ICPO. This has no source or link and is mentioned nowhere by the TMPD. The only thing that is established is that the TMPD lodged the killer's fingerprints with Interpol. So the author, as far as we know, pulled that out of their derrière.

Lol! Gotta admire the confidence.

 

[Cryptic]

In this instance is it possible to get a list of stores that were on bases during the time period do you think?

Though I have never been to the base in question, stores on US military bases are "standard issue" (its the military after all) with little variation between bases.

- One grocery store.
- One general department store. The building with the department store often has a "food court" of varying sizes and a video arcade.
- A sprinkling of US style convenience stores (number depended on size of the base).
- A "Toyland" store (toys tended to be in a separate store instead of the general department store).

In addition, bases with certain recreation facilities might sell small items related to that sport or activity. For example, a base with a bowling alley having a small "pro shop" selling bowling balls, gloves etc.

The main variation would be the vendors renting stalls outside of the general department store. These would have local variation and a noticeable turn over rate.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Regarding the CCTV footage of the guy who bought the same knife close to the day of the murders, did the TMPD say where that footage was from? The store and the location? I would be interested to know… many thanks.

sadly we don’t know anything more than “a local store.” Then again, I know they checked as many sales as possible throughout Japan so I think it must be that the CCTV jived with the physical traits of the killer.

 

[fridaybaker]

Just in general, regarding the 2005 NIH study, referenced above, I would want something more robust if I were to make any serious assumptions based on this. I don't know much about this field, but I do know a bit about studies in general and, wow: The sample sizes are miniscule. 81 people sampled from Korea!

Also, that's the only study I can find in a quick search of publicly available data. In terms of scientific data, that's really, really, weak sauce.

I would imagine there are some more, better, studies that scholarly types are privy to.

 

[fridaybaker]

I don't know much about Japanese culture; however, if I understand correctly, most families get together during the New Year's celebration? In the U.S., I think you find that many, many people don't get together at holidays, so I'm not sure if this holds true for Japan (in 2000) as well.

However, if that is true, that most families would be together at the NY, and this crime happened/started very late on December 30th, can we draw any inferences from this? It's not NY's "eve", if that's a thing in Japan, but the day before. Can we say that it would be unusual, or at least noticed, if a Japanese teenager were away from home on the 30th (Which was a Saturday).

In the U.S., I'd say no. But if being away at that time would be unusal for a Japanese teenager, does this support the "non-Japanese, son of an AF serviceman, American" POI? Perhaps I'm really reaching here...

 

[dotr]

Just throwing this out there, any chance the perp had a drop of Portuguese in him? speculation, imo.

Portugal and Japan: a little-known but unique relation

Although both countries are in distant regions of the planet, Portugal and Japan can lay claim to a peculiar and littleknown relationship that began 400 years ago thanks to the boldness of Portugue…

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

“Japan was the Asian country that experienced the greatest impact and the greatest transformations because of Portuguese expansion,” says historian and university professor Joao Oliveira e Costa.''

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Just throwing this out there, any chance the perp had a drop of Portuguese in him? speculation, imo.

Portugal and Japan: a little-known but unique relation

Although both countries are in distant regions of the planet, Portugal and Japan can lay claim to a peculiar and littleknown relationship that began 400 years ago thanks to the boldness of Portugue…

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

“Japan was the Asian country that experienced the greatest impact and the greatest transformations because of Portuguese expansion,” says historian and university professor Joao Oliveira e Costa.''

As far as we know, it is undoubtedly possible -- although Dr. M mentioned the likelihood, via the mito DNA, would be around Italy / Croatia / Dalmatia. Still, Portugal isn't a huge leap. We know, for example, that there is a not insignificant Japanese diaspora in Brazil and Hawaii. And, of course, DNA won't tell us about things such as adoption. So yes, in short, Portugal is possible. Though from the sounds of it, it's UNlikely the killer's mother or grandmother was from the Mediterranean. More likely that at some point along the maternal line there was Mediterranean blood. Of course, if this is going back to the 1500s, that won't be relevant to the way the killer looks today.

Sorry, just edited to say unlikely the Mediterranean relative was immediate or close to the killer's generation.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I don't know much about Japanese culture; however, if I understand correctly, most families get together during the New Year's celebration? In the U.S., I think you find that many, many people don't get together at holidays, so I'm not sure if this holds true for Japan (in 2000) as well.

However, if that is true, that most families would be together at the NY, and this crime happened/started very late on December 30th, can we draw any inferences from this? It's not NY's "eve", if that's a thing in Japan, but the day before. Can we say that it would be unusual, or at least noticed, if a Japanese teenager were away from home on the 30th (Which was a Saturday).

In the U.S., I'd say no. But if being away at that time would be unusal for a Japanese teenager, does this support the "non-Japanese, son of an AF serviceman, American" POI? Perhaps I'm really reaching here...

Shōgatsu / new year is the most significant holiday in the Japanese calendar. Many things will be closed in those first days of the year. Of course, one can only answer in generalities here but we know that families spend this time together. I do think there's a greater likelihood that a boy's absence might be noted by a Japanese family at this time of year over an American one. Just my own riff, of course.

 

[Charlot123]

Just throwing this out there, any chance the perp had a drop of Portuguese in him? speculation, imo.

Portugal and Japan: a little-known but unique relation

Although both countries are in distant regions of the planet, Portugal and Japan can lay claim to a peculiar and littleknown relationship that began 400 years ago thanks to the boldness of Portugue…

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

“Japan was the Asian country that experienced the greatest impact and the greatest transformations because of Portuguese expansion,” says historian and university professor Joao Oliveira e Costa.''

And then, we have a huge country where Portugal and Japan coalesce, that’s Brazil. One of the largest Japanese diasporas in the world, btw.

 

[Charlot123]

As far as we know, it is undoubtedly possible -- although Dr. M mentioned the likelihood, via the mito DNA, would be around Italy / Croatia / Dalmatia. Still, Portugal isn't a huge leap. We know, for example, that there is a not insignificant Japanese diaspora in Brazil and Hawaii. And, of course, DNA won't tell us about things such as adoption. So yes, in short, Portugal is possible. Though from the sounds of it, it's likely the killer's mother or grandmother was from the Mediterranean. More likely that at some point along the maternal line there was Mediterranean blood. Of course, if this is going back to the 1500s, that won't be relevant to the way the killer looks today.

It may be going back to the 1500es, and even more. They can’t say that the mother is from the Mediterranean, they can only say that the haplogroup is more prevalent in the Med. It doesn’t rule any other place in the world.