2023 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

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PayrollNerd said:
Mother Nature needs to give it a rest, good grief. We haven't had rain in Sarasota in weeks. We are allegedly getting rain later today. I'll believe it when I see it.


A disturbance in the southwest Carribean could develop into a tropical depression. Even if it doesn’t, the system will bring heavy rainfall to parts of Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola.
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It has been raining off and on on Central FL east coast. The intracoastal waterway is getting rough with craft warnings. Expected surf size up to 9 feet by the end of the week. That sound you hear are the surfers yelling "Surf's Up".
 
Irishknit said:
It has been raining off and on on Central FL east coast. The intracoastal waterway is getting rough with craft warnings. Expected surf size up to 9 feet by the end of the week. That sound you hear are the surfers yelling "Surf's Up".
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It’s raining here!!! A nice steady light rain. Perfect for my garden beds.
 
A couple rainy & windy areas out there.

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There are two areas being watched by the National Hurricane Center today, the older area has a 50% chance to develop, and has actually dropped in chances, but those in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Turks and Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas should keep watch on that in case it does develop around this weekend.

The other area which is currently making it windy over much of Florida today (and likely a lot of rain later today and tomorrow, especially in South Florida/Keys) likely has a 10% chance to develop once over the Atlantic, but would be moving away from land but could impact areas in New England later. Both are likely fast moving systems, and odds are they won't have long enough to get fully organized. Neither are listed as invest areas at this time.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida in a day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly
 
PayrollNerd said:
A couple rainy & windy areas out there.

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There are two areas being watched by the National Hurricane Center today, the older area has a 50% chance to develop, and has actually dropped in chances, but those in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Turks and Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas should keep watch on that in case it does develop around this weekend.

The other area which is currently making it windy over much of Florida today (and likely a lot of rain later today and tomorrow, especially in South Florida/Keys) likely has a 10% chance to develop once over the Atlantic, but would be moving away from land but could impact areas in New England later. Both are likely fast moving systems, and odds are they won't have long enough to get fully organized. Neither are listed as invest areas at this time.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida in a day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly
Click to expand...
The 7-day outlook map from the National Hurricane Center:
1700081605584.png
 
Irishknit said:
Central East Coast FL, the Space Coast, 2 days of 80% rain coverage. I was out with a friend in the Melbourne area, every retention pond was full. Now we have flood warnings. Thankful not in a flood zone.
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My aunt and uncle in Sebastian have had nonstop rain, thunder and high winds today.
 
I just read a very interesting article regarding forecasts of the potential 2024 Hurricane season. It explains the effect of Summer La Nina and El Nino pattern of water temperatures based in the Pacific Ocean.

Apparently 2024 is projected to be more active than the 2023 season............
www.usatoday.com

Hurricane season forecast is already looking grim: Here's why hot oceans, La Niña matter

El Niño is fading and could give way to a La Niña, which could be bad news for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season given the warm ocean temperatures.
www.usatoday.com

Hoping their forecast is wrong.

JMO
 
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