2024 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

[PayrollNerd]

The Gulf of Mexico is blazing hot, but hurricane season is ominously quiet

The natural La Niña climate pattern, which scientists expect to take hold this fall, is closely associated with hurricanes. Meanwhile, ocean temperatures remain elevated.

www.nbcnews.com

“There’s nothing coming up. It’s extremely quiet, which is odd, given how hot the Atlantic is and the trend toward La Niña,” said Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. “There’s a lot of head-scratching right now.”

 

[Lexiintoronto]

The Gulf of Mexico is blazing hot, but hurricane season is ominously quiet

The natural La Niña climate pattern, which scientists expect to take hold this fall, is closely associated with hurricanes. Meanwhile, ocean temperatures remain elevated.

www.nbcnews.com

“There’s nothing coming up. It’s extremely quiet, which is odd, given how hot the Atlantic is and the trend toward La Niña,” said Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. “There’s a lot of head-scratching right now.”

I was just wondering where the storms are. Perfect weather and we should have been hit once by now in Nova Scotia.

 

[RichardKimble]

Maybe it's too hot or the science isn't there.

 

[Stunned]

Andrew was the first storm of 92, it hit today 32 years ago. Something will happen. I can wait.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

Maybe it's too hot or the science isn't there.

The heat sometimes make the storms stronger where I am on the North Atlantic. The ocean is a few degrees warmer than normal.

Andrew was the first storm of 92, it hit today 32 years ago. Something will happen. I can wait.

Yep. I’m good being hurricane free here at the moment. I know one will hit soon.

 

[HmmMysterious]

Seems like the Saharan's Dust grip over the Atlantic will start to fade away

 

[PayrollNerd]

Central Florida Hurricane Center 2024 - 29 Years Tracking Storms

flhurricane is a Website focused on the tracking, data, and discussion of Atlantic Hurricanes with a focus on Florida.

flhurricane.com

Three of the five AOIs in the Atlantic basin being monitored by NHC are arguably better candidates for development than advertised from the last NHC update, and as they are not just much closer to land, but already impacting large portions of the northwest and northern Gulf, Central America and at least indirectly the east coast and Bermuda and eastern Mexico, interests in these and nearby locations may want to begin paying closer attention and prepare for additional locally-issued and eventually potentially nationally-issued Watches and Warnings.

In addition to these three features that have the potential to become officiated tropical or subtropical cyclones, the parent front of 90L and 99L itself is wringing out copious moisture across the south including Florida resulting in dangerous flash flooding.

 

[TexLil]

Could the next 48 hours bring Francine?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1832845153620439316

 

[HmmMysterious]

Could the next 48 hours bring Francine?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1832845153620439316

Very interesting run from the GFS. That's like a strong Cat 2 - minimal Cat 3 at landfall

 

[anneg]

 

[HmmMysterious]

Special Message from NHC​

Issued 8 Sep 2024 20:22 UTC​

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

 

[HmmMysterious]

First outlook is out: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion

INIT 08/2100Z 21.6N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/0600Z 22.3N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 09/1800Z 23.2N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 10/0600Z 24.3N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 27.0N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 94.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 33.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/1800Z 37.0N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROPICAL

 

[HmmMysterious]

 

[Lexiintoronto]

I can’t imagine 48 hours notice of such a powerful storm. I hope everyone here in Francine’s path does well.

 

[HmmMysterious]

New forecast track for future Francine

INIT 09/0300Z 21.9N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

The track has been nudged slightly more to the east

 

[Observant-ADHD-ENFP-BSc]

It looks like they are predicting it will stay fierce while heading north.

 

[HmmMysterious]

...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED......PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY...

1:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 Location: 23.7°N 95.8°W Moving: NNW at 5 mph Min pressure: 996 mb Max sustained: 60 mph

 

[PayrollNerd]

I hope the people take this storms flooding seriously. It’s not going to be the wind, it’s the water. Up to 6’+ in flooding in some areas predicted at this point. If you know anyone in this region of the gulf, please encourage them to go inland. Storms & high tide, depending on timing, can be utterly devastating.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

The Canadian government’s latest update.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

View attachment 530125
The Canadian government’s latest update.

The latest Canadian update has Francine gaining strength as she’s expected to hit land. 15 km/h faster than this morning’s update. 155 km/h (96 mph).