2024 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

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Time to head west! Even if it’s not an official storm, the flooding and soppy messy will be miserable.


The system is expected to become a tropical storm by Monday, acquiring the name Helene. “On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday,” the National Hurricane Center said.
 
lonetraveler said:
Yes, this little un-named storm created history. It was really rough early morning and throughout the day. Historic amount of rain in twelve hours, up to 18 inches in Carolina Beach. Lots of flooding in New Hanover and Brunswick County. Multiple roads washed out. At least my family and me are safe.
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Glad to hear you and your family are all right. I'm in the middle of NC and it's been raining here all day, but the amount of rain doesn't compare with what your area has had.
 
Well, this storm has really damaged the area. We got 18 inches of rain in 12 hours. There are over 200 roads closed due to flooding and the road being totally washed out. Bridges are also washed out. I was very lucky with my home but I've found out that one block away from me, down a hill, the homes are flooded with 6 to 8 feet of water. 27 families had to be rescued during the storm during the night.
 
HmmMysterious said:
The GFS is predicting that another hurricane (Helene possibly) will hit the Gulf Coast. I would say this shows a Category 2 storm making landfall along Mississippi's coast.

GFS Model

View attachment 532504
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It’s getting a bit active in the Atlantic:
1726867824539.png
“More than halfway through the Atlantic Hurricane Season, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center still expect more storm activity than in an average year.

In their August update, forecasters said that between June 1 and Nov. 30, the Atlantic (including the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico) would see 17 to 24 named storms, of which eight to 13 could become hurricanes, four to seven of those Category 3 or stronger.”
 
Our weather prediction in Sarasota is rain Wed & Thu. Panama City Beach (oldest lives there) is the same, with the rain chance less Fri & Sat. This leads me to believe that mess coming into the GOM is going to rapidly intensify.

People need to prep immediately for alternate safe locations.
The topography for that area is flat. Really flat and low. There are no hills or mountains to slow a storm. Just like with Hurricane Michael that blew into Mexico City FL in 2018, it will flood & flatten everything.

When I was visiting PCB in April, there were a lot of places that had been rebuilt. Including the entire marina. Many mobile homes on land are newer now. The tornado in Jan that blew thru had wiped out buildings that they hadn’t even started to fix.
 
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion

INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
I suspect it’s going to get to a CAT 3 while it’s out over warm water. There literally nothing stopping it. At landfall, maybe a CAT 2.

Sure hope everyone in the low lying areas of the big bend shoreline move inland. They haven’t recovered from the last mess. Here in Sarasota, we’re going to be on the right hand side which is always worse. The tail of it lasts for days after the center moves north.

I’m in the garden today trying to work the soil while it is dry. I have new rope and rebar to brace my silver boxwood tree. I lost a branch in Hurricane Ian the first year. My garden arch fell over from Hurricane Debbie. I’ve got everything braced with rebar now.
 
PayrollNerd said:
I suspect it’s going to get to a CAT 3 while it’s out over warm water. There literally nothing stopping it. At landfall, maybe a CAT 2.

Sure hope everyone in the low lying areas of the big bend shoreline move inland. They haven’t recovered from the last mess. Here in Sarasota, we’re going to be on the right hand side which is always worse. The tail of it lasts for days after the center moves north.

I’m in the garden today trying to work the soil while it is dry. I have new rope and rebar to brace my silver boxwood tree. I lost a branch in Hurricane Ian the first year. My garden arch fell over from Hurricane Debbie. I’ve got everything braced with rebar now.
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I think it's got an awful lot of hot water to travel over. This storm is scaring my family in North Fl., they usually just throw hurricane parties. They are worried about this one. Heck, I'm worried about it in the mountains of NC!
 
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