2024 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

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...HELENE LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...
7:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 25
Location: 23.0°N 86.6°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
 
Forecast discussion which is really upsetting: Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion

"Some of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to
this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a
35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours"

And the discussion also indicates to don't be surprised if Helene strengthens a little more than expected.
 
PayrollNerd said:
Well, I’m as ready as I can be. There are clouds and it’s breezy. The proceeding bands of rain are expected around 3-4pm.

I braced my tree out front just after dawn, you can see the clouds in the photo. Took photos of my front landscaping in case there is damage. Emptied the rain barrel. Brought in all my gardening things. Put the trash & recycle bins in the garage. Locked my double gate so the wind doesn’t push it open.

Gas in my truck, a little cash on hand, charging the iPhone, iPad, laptop and the portable charger. The internet always “drowns” during storms. But my iPhone has 5G service.

I do not have a lot of food on hand because if we lose power, the insurance doesn’t reimburse you. I have a 1/2 loaf of bread, my PeaNot butter made from chickpeas, and jam. (Allergic to peanuts). Lots of snacks too. No bananas tho because people are panic buying them. I have a grill and charcoal if I want hot food.

My friend and I are going for pizza tonight. I might get an extra slice because I’ll eat that cold. I still need to empty my ice maker into my cooler.

Two neighbors came by to check if I wanted to put up hurricane shutters. They’re not putting any up. This is just an annoying rain event with wind. It’s shifted more west but it could shift east again.
Click to expand...
I try to boil some eggs and have extra on hand too. You sound like a very light eater! I would have so much junk food ready to dive into it is ridiculous!
 
bestill said:
I try to boil some eggs and have extra on hand too. You sound like a very light eater! I would have so much junk food ready to dive into it is ridiculous!
Click to expand...
Oh but I have soooo many snacks. LOL! I’ve been collecting different individually wrapped items but actually, not for the hurricane. I was trying to find a bin big enough. As you can see, I did not succeed. Ha!

We have not had as much rain this evening as I was expecting. It looks like it’s shifted west but maybe not. It’s going to be a loud rainy night.
 

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killarney rose said:
PayrollNerd that is all I’m expecting here but that has caused us power outages in the past. Good luck to you!
Click to expand...
Good luck to you and your family. I fear you’re going to get it bad even tho you’re inland. My daughter and her boyfriend are scheduled to land in Atlanta at 6am Friday. I’m wondering if the flight out of Honolulu will even take off tomorrow night. Delta hasn’t changed their flights so they’re assuming it’s a go.

Their plan is, if they get to Atlanta, is to drive to Dothan. Their friends in Carabelle, FL are going to shelter at the house in Dothan. One friend and her dog are going to the house in Destin, FL. The boyfriend owns a house in both places thankfully.

A friend went to my daughter’s apartment and put her patio furniture, plants and grill inside. Another friend took her vehicle to her office which is on higher ground.

Fortunately she has her electronics with her because she was in HI to speak at a conference.
 
Helene is such a large storm.. I'm on the east coast of Florida, Palm Beach County, but we'll have tropical storm conditions here. It's raining now, but the heaviest rain and wind will be on Thursday afternoon. Last week the road to my development flooded, making it inaccessible for several hours. No buildings flooded. There are some areas where it doesn't drain well, so I'm expecting flooded roads again. This year we've had a lot of power failures, so that's my biggest concern. I don't have a real generator, but I have these huge battery units that I bought online. These can run a fan, and the refrigerator along with occasional use of the microwave.

I hope it doesn't make landfall as a Category 4.
 
@PayrollNerd , a friend of mine has noticed that NOAA forecasts and information about Helene don't seem to give the expected Saffir-Simpson ratings 1-5 any more.

Is this a known change in how they present hurricane information, and if so, do you know the reasoning behind the change?

I know it's been discussed for years that the scale isn't perfect and also that higher ratings are now needed for stronger storms, but I wasn't aware that terminology changes were already happening. Or maybe it's inadvertent just at the moment or for this particular storm or season?

Can you shed any light on this?
 
PayrollNerd said:
Oh but I have soooo many snacks. LOL! I’ve been collecting different individually wrapped items but actually, not for the hurricane. I was trying to find a bin big enough. As you can see, I did not succeed. Ha!

We have not had as much rain this evening as I was expecting. It looks like it’s shifted west but maybe not. It’s going to be a loud rainy night.
Click to expand...
Please stay safe!!!
 
Auntie Cipation said:
@PayrollNerd , a friend of mine has noticed that NOAA forecasts and information about Helene don't seem to give the expected Saffir-Simpson ratings 1-5 any more.

Is this a known change in how they present hurricane information, and if so, do you know the reasoning behind the change?

I know it's been discussed for years that the scale isn't perfect and also that higher ratings are now needed for stronger storms, but I wasn't aware that terminology changes were already happening. Or maybe it's inadvertent just at the moment or for this particular storm or season?

Can you shed any light on this?
Click to expand...
Just my opinion here….

I don’t know for sure but I have heard there was going to be a Cat 6 at some point. Nobody pays attention to the number, so it’s ineffective. Floridians in particular, ignore the number until it’s a Cat 4 or higher.

I’ve noticed they are focusing on flooding or storm surge more now. Sadly, that is the biggest reason people die in a hurricane. People underestimate the power of water. Too many think they can shelter in place and then the water comes rolling in. They flip out, thinking they can still drive away and they drown.

The wind is a big deal for projectiles, like tiles coming off a tile roof and smashing a window. People not tying down things they have outside like their grill, a swing set, fences panels, satellite dishes, etc. You don’t see people flying, you see objects.

Sarasota police went thru every mobile home park in the county today knocking on every door. Mandatory evacuations and they had transportation to take people to the shelters.
 
John's incredible. Not only did he re-emerge over the eastern Pacific again, but he's also rapidly intensifying once more. I wonder where in southwestern Mexico will John make landfall.

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
9:00 PM CST Wed Sep 25
Location: 17.0°N 102.1°W
Moving: NW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph


INIT 26/0300Z 17.0N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 17.3N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.7N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 18.4N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
Isaac has formed. This "I" won't be a threat to land this year.

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 37.1°N 54.1°W
Moving: E at 12 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
 
According to Dr. Reed Timmer, as of 2:30 AM EDT, the new HAFS-B model shows a major Hurricane Helene with a massive eye taking up nearly all of Apalachee Bay making landfill near St Marks, Florida Thursday evening with 942 mb central pressure. This would bring the 20 feet of storm surge into areas like Keaton Beach and Horseshoe Beach.

(I did some research. The mb/hPa/mbar all mean the same thing. With the above model stated, which is one that the NOAA uses, the mb is 942 which is only a few points higher than the following CAT 5’s: Ian (937), Beryl (934), Matthew (934) and Edith (943).)
 

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