4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #92

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves

New Posts

Status
Not open for further replies.
<modsnip> I know he's innocent until proven guilty but the evidence already presented is so strong in my opinion. There are so many cases where you could make a better argument for someone being a scapegoat for murder yet people <modsnip> trying to come up with anything to make people believe he didn't do it.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Thomas 3377 said:
I read the thing twice and I don't see the word exact. It starts of as "was at least 5.37 octillion times more likely to be"
Click to expand...
Which is for all intents and purposes, an exact match. It wasn’t that long ago that we heard about millions to one, now it’s numbers we can’t fathom. The argument cannot be “it’s not his DNA,” rather, it really can only be that it got there some other way.

Good luck with that, especially considering the digital trail, and everything else we know. If during trial this case isn’t the slam dunk to end all slam dunks, I’ll eat my hat, as there’s going to be a lot more where that came from.
 
MassGuy said:
Which is for all intents and purposes, an exact match. It wasn’t that long ago that we heard about millions to one, now it’s numbers we can’t fathom. The argument cannot be “it’s not his DNA,” rather, it really can only be that it got there some other way.

Good luck with that, especially considering the digital trail, and everything else we know. If during trial this case isn’t the slam dunk to end all slam dunks, I’ll eat my hat, as there’s going to be a lot more where that came from.
Click to expand...
Agreed that this is a tower of evidence. JMO, this appears to be beyond saving for even the most skilled defense team, but there is one thing I've kind of wondered about, and that's whether there is other unidentified DNA in the same immediate area of where the murders actually occurred. If so, I hope it was given some scrutiny by LE that is documented. I'm watching for three things, and I know I'm not going to get them until the trial if they exist:

-Is the info about him having purchased the Ka-Bar weapon on Amazon verified/confirmed?
-Does the footprint left by the perp in the house-- is it the same shoe size as his?
-Is there evidence that he bleached the vehicle? This "bleaching" leaves a footprint of its own, that's my understanding

I still can't believe they went ahead with the demolition of that house, and I hope all these claims I'm hearing that it won't matter end up being the case. And I do wonder what the outcome with the death penalty aspect will be if he is convicted.
 
snooptroop88 said:
Agreed that this is a tower of evidence. JMO, this appears to be beyond saving for even the most skilled defense team, but there is one thing I've kind of wondered about, and that's whether there is other unidentified DNA in the same immediate area of where the murders actually occurred. If so, I hope it was given some scrutiny by LE that is documented. I'm watching for three things, and I know I'm not going to get them until the trial if they exist:

-Is the info about him having purchased the Ka-Bar weapon on Amazon verified/confirmed?
-Does the footprint left by the perp in the house-- is it the same shoe size as his?
-Is there evidence that he bleached the vehicle? This "bleaching" leaves a footprint of its own, that's my understanding

I still can't believe they went ahead with the demolition of that house, and I hope all these claims I'm hearing that it won't matter end up being the case. And I do wonder what the outcome with the death penalty aspect will be if he is convicted.
Click to expand...
I'm sure there's going to be lots of foreign DNA in that house, and I fully expect the defense to point to this DNA as belonging to an alternate suspect, especially if it's in or near the bedrooms (door handles) etc.

Of course the only DNA that would have been subject to genetic genealogy is that on the sheath, but I'd expect any additional DNA would have been compared to the victims, and entered into CODIS.

As for that shoe print, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be larger than what Kohberger wears. He thought about this a lot, and planned meticulously (all those late night trips prior to the murders). He wouldn't be the first killer to try and throw off law enforcement by wearing shoes that wouldn't match his shoe size if he was identified. Anecdotally however, it seems that people who do this tend to have a direct connection to the vicim, and know they'll be looked at.I think he's arrogant enough to have believed he'd never be questioned, so maybe he didn't bother. Who knows.

I'm incredibly interested in the DNA analysis of the vehicle, as presumably, he'd have been covered in blood when he left the house. Blood can drip into areas difficult to clean, and I'd be shocked if they didn't turn up something, even after his cleaning efforts.
 
snooptroop88 said:
Agreed that this is a tower of evidence. JMO, this appears to be beyond saving for even the most skilled defense team, but there is one thing I've kind of wondered about, and that's whether there is other unidentified DNA in the same immediate area of where the murders actually occurred. If so, I hope it was given some scrutiny by LE that is documented. I'm watching for three things, and I know I'm not going to get them until the trial if they exist:

-Is the info about him having purchased the Ka-Bar weapon on Amazon verified/confirmed?
-Does the footprint left by the perp in the house-- is it the same shoe size as his?
-Is there evidence that he bleached the vehicle? This "bleaching" leaves a footprint of its own, that's my understanding

I still can't believe they went ahead with the demolition of that house, and I hope all these claims I'm hearing that it won't matter end up being the case. And I do wonder what the outcome with the death penalty aspect will be if he is convicted.
Click to expand...

They couldn't use the house at trial because it had been altered and didn't represent the crime scenes any more. Plus it was hazardous due to chemical applications.

Here is what happens regarding the death penalty if he is convicted:

There would be another trial called the penalty phase trial with the same jurors. There is the guilt phase trial then the penalty phase trial.

The prosecution presents all the aggravating factors in favor of a death sentence and the defense presents all the mitigating factors in favor of LWOP.

www.justia.com

Aggravating and Mitigating Factors in Criminal Sentencing Law

Learn about the types of information that can be used to enhance or reduce a criminal defendant's sentence at a hearing after a guilty verdict.
www.justia.com www.justia.com
 
Thomas 3377 said:
I knew you would get it that an genetic distance of zero means that there are no differences in the two results and there is an exact match.
Click to expand...
DNA analysis is a mathematical exercise. The question they ask is not "is this an exact match?". The question they ask is "What are the statistical odds that the DNA sample could belong to another person on this planet rather than this defendant/suspect/etc." The total population of planet earth in 2021 was 7.9B. 5.37 Octillion is 5,370,000,000,000,000,000 billions. Thank goodness for internet calculators. I'm no mathematician but I suspect the number of people required for there to be a better match than BK would not fit on planet earth and I'm guessing not on many planets of similar size. Everyones mileage may vary, but that's close enough to exact match for me. MOOOooo
 
Cool Cats said:
It was DeSales University Associate Professor Michelle Bolger who taught Kohberger in one online class, never meeting him in person. She helped him with his master's thesis project and she gives some detail on that in the article.

The program has a mock crime scene house where it gives our students hands-on practical experience in investigating criminal activity, said the director of the program Joe Walsh.

In an exclusive interview Bolger said that he's a brilliant student, I'm shocked as s**t at what he's been accused of. He was always perfectly professional when I had any interactions with him. I don't believe it, but I get it.

In my 10 years of teaching I’ve only recommended two students to a Ph.D. program and he was one of them. He was one of my best students, ever. Everyone is in shock over this.

Ben Roberts a criminology student said that Kohberger was confident and outgoing but still appeared as if he was always looking for a way to fit in. It's pretty out of left field (his charges) I had honestly just pegged him as being super awkward. One thing he would always do, almost without fail, was find the most complicated way to explain something.

In an email to The Associated Press BK Norton, a criminology student, said that he didn't know Kohberger well but didn't like him. We interacted in class but personally I was not a fan of Bryan because of comments he made about LGBTQ+ individuals.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Idaho 'killer' a brilliant student, says his criminology professor

DeSales University Professor Michelle Bolger said she's in absolute shock after hearing that her former student Bryan Kohberger is the accused Idaho quadruple murder suspect.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
Click to expand...
Makes me question the strength of DeSales’ graduate program.
 
maskedwoman said:
DNA analysis is a mathematical exercise. The question they ask is not "is this an exact match?". The question they ask is "What are the statistical odds that the DNA sample could belong to another person on this planet rather than this defendant/suspect/etc." The total population of planet earth in 2021 was 7.9B. 5.37 Octillion is 5,370,000,000,000,000,000 billions. Thank goodness for internet calculators. I'm no mathematician but I suspect the number of people required for there to be a better match than BK would not fit on planet earth and I'm guessing not on many planets of similar size. Everyones mileage may vary, but that's close enough to exact match for me. MOOOooo
Click to expand...

In other words, you would have to have 1,500,000,000,000,000,000 earths populations to expect to have another one match the markers like that.

Or taken in a completely different and random way.. What are the chances that someone: With your exact first middle and last name, was born on your exact birth date, went to a high school with the same name as yours, had a 3 year old German Shepard named Rex, bowled a score of 299, won the Mega Millions lottery, shot 2 deer at once with 1 bullet, had his left thumb amputated with a chain saw accident, drives a 1974 Datsun 610, married a woman named Eliza Isabell who drives a 1954 Roadster, was born in Krakow Poland, has an IQ of 162, AND also has memorized the first 10,000 digits in Pi... then add 100,000 more random details.???
 
Last edited:
MassGuy said:
I'm sure there's going to be lots of foreign DNA in that house, and I fully expect the defense to point to this DNA as belonging to an alternate suspect, especially if it's in or near the bedrooms (door handles) etc.

Of course the only DNA that would have been subject to genetic genealogy is that on the sheath, but I'd expect any additional DNA would have been compared to the victims, and entered into CODIS.

As for that shoe print, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be larger than what Kohberger wears. He thought about this a lot, and planned meticulously (all those late night trips prior to the murders). He wouldn't be the first killer to try and throw off law enforcement by wearing shoes that wouldn't match his shoe size if he was identified. Anecdotally however, it seems that people who do this tend to have a direct connection to the vicim, and know they'll be looked at.I think he's arrogant enough to have believed he'd never be questioned, so maybe he didn't bother. Who knows.

I'm incredibly interested in the DNA analysis of the vehicle, as presumably, he'd have been covered in blood when he left the house. Blood can drip into areas difficult to clean, and I'd be shocked if they didn't turn up something, even after his cleaning efforts.
Click to expand...
Good to see you here, @MassGuy!
Been missing your substanative posts and good insight!
 
Swansee said:
I agree with you @Valen2 , it is an amazing tool, and obviously so beneficial in cold cases too.
We really don't know whether or not there are any issues with the way IGG was used in the Idaho case. So far it's a lot of he said she said insinuations, with most of the actual facts under seal. So I'm not going to assume LE used anything wrongly, but I'm not going to die on a hill that they didn't either, until we've seen the facts both sides are referring to.
Keep in mind that BK himself had done some kind of ancestry DNA test. (Found the link, see
here ). We don't know what service he used, or if he opted out of being in an LE database. So to one of your points, it may well be that the IGG led investigators directly to BK's own data, and if he had opted out, he could very well object to that process.
Then there's the statement that GEDmatch put out a few months ago that they had been made aware that some LE were in fact using loopholes to overreach what they legally have access to, and that they were trying to close said loopholes (I posted a screenshot at the time). That happened shortly after Gabriella Vargas' sworn testimony that she was aware of cases where LE did exactly that.
BUT we don't know if any of this is actually relevant in this particular case. My only thought on the matter is that BK would have to be remarkably dumb to upload his DNA into an LE searchable database while planning to commit a quadruple homicide.
Click to expand...

That's certainly interesting new news (although...it's entirely based on some fellow grad student asserting that BK told him he'd used such a service - a rookie move on BK's part if he was planning to commit crimes - or had a compulsive interest in thinking about and planning to commit crimes).

Almost no one starts their ancestry search by using an LE-based database. While Othram and others do provide (limited) lab services, mostly they rely on people who started with 23andme or Ancestry (I believe Ancestry is the larger service).

Great find (that link). We don't know that it's true, but it seems surprisingly likely, given BK's interest in crime (it overlaps a lot with studying genes). If he submitted it to Othram or any other LE-enabled service, he HAD to opt in. If he submitted it only to Ancestry or 23andme, then he could opt out. That's why LE used the voluntarily submitted and opted in samples (also, thanks for the reminder that it was the large database at GEDMatch - every participant there opts into the use of their DNA by LE). At any rate, the relative who came in as a close match had given permission for HIS DNA to be used by LE - just as any of us can do and just like I could give my security camera pictures to LE to identify someone if I wanted to.

So, I don't believe Idaho LE or FBI did anything but use GEDMatch for its approved and voluntarily opted-in services.

I agree that he'd have to be very dumb about DNA if he did upload, but after researching the required courses and available electives at his various programs, and after teaching courses in human DNA to grads and undergrads (and lawyers and LE) in various capacities, let me just say that most people have a hard time getting through one semester and rarely understand the finer points of the system. I don't believe any such course was offered at any of the institutions that BK attended. DeSales seems to have folded an introductory unit into a larger course on forensics - not the same as actually understanding how and why DNA works in forensic settings.

Taking his phone with him illustrates that he's not possessed of reliable practical intelligence, if he was planning to commit a crime. Maybe it wasn't as planned as I've sometimes thought.

IMO.
Thomas 3377 said:
I read the thing twice and I don't see the word exact. It starts of as "was at least 5.37 octillion times more likely to be"
Click to expand...

That means that in order for it NOT to be his, there would need to be many other planets with large populations from whence it comes. There are only 8.5 billion people on Earth. Also, it's male DNA. So there are only about 4.25 billion possible contributors.

This is the same as the word "exact" in genetics. Highest possible confidence. If that's not a fact, then we might as well all go home, as there are no facts in any legal cases whatsoever.

What this means technically speaking is that every single SNP discovered (the personally identifying segments of DNA where there's heterozygosity) belonged to Bryan Kohberger. It's as exact a match as possible. It's better than a photograph or a fingerprint.

IMO.
 
MassGuy said:
I'm sure there's going to be lots of foreign DNA in that house, and I fully expect the defense to point to this DNA as belonging to an alternate suspect, especially if it's in or near the bedrooms (door handles) etc.

Of course the only DNA that would have been subject to genetic genealogy is that on the sheath, but I'd expect any additional DNA would have been compared to the victims, and entered into CODIS.

As for that shoe print, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be larger than what Kohberger wears. He thought about this a lot, and planned meticulously (all those late night trips prior to the murders). He wouldn't be the first killer to try and throw off law enforcement by wearing shoes that wouldn't match his shoe size if he was identified. Anecdotally however, it seems that people who do this tend to have a direct connection to the vicim, and know they'll be looked at.I think he's arrogant enough to have believed he'd never be questioned, so maybe he didn't bother. Who knows.

I'm incredibly interested in the DNA analysis of the vehicle, as presumably, he'd have been covered in blood when he left the house. Blood can drip into areas difficult to clean, and I'd be shocked if they didn't turn up something, even after his cleaning efforts.
Click to expand...

That's true about the shoe size. However, latent prints are often very analyzable as to what the size of the foot was, inside the shoe (and usually other characteristics, such as the ratio of the big toe to the rest of the foot. Good point about his arrogance - I personally believe he was valuing his own running ability/athletic prowess enough to be using non-skid skater shoes that fit him. Either way, there's probably some evidence there.

It's been implied by the defense that no victim DNA was found in the car. However, if it were partial matches, that's how I'd expect the Defense to spin it. Overall Defense strategy seems to telegraph "he's gonna get convicted." IMO.

Good to see you here!
 
Last edited:
Article correlates to above linked document posted above.

www.wfmz.com

State of Idaho objects to Bryan Kohberger's motion for change of venue, asks court to schedule trial date in murder case

Bryan Kohberger's attorneys said they wanted the jury to be pulled from outside of Latah County, Idaho.
www.wfmz.com www.wfmz.com


In a court filing last week, the state said the motion to change the venue was "premature."

In the court documents, the state requested that the court set a trial date, a briefing schedule for Kohberger’s motion, and a hearing date for the motion to be heard.
 
MassGuy said:
Which is for all intents and purposes, an exact match. It wasn’t that long ago that we heard about millions to one, now it’s numbers we can’t fathom. The argument cannot be “it’s not his DNA,” rather, it really can only be that it got there some other way.

Good luck with that, especially considering the digital trail, and everything else we know. If during trial this case isn’t the slam dunk to end all slam dunks, I’ll eat my hat, as there’s going to be a lot more where that came from.
Click to expand...

The OJ Simpson jury showed that it is possible for a jury to not be smart enough to comprehend these statistics.

OJ's blood (left at the crime scene) could not be excluded as an exact match for 9.7 billion people... and yet the jury still did not convict him.

However, that jury was biased and the prosecution made several blunders. If the glove doesn't fit.... and also a racists cop in the mix.
 
Justice101 said:
The OJ Simpson jury showed that it is possible for a jury to not be smart enough to comprehend these statistics.

OJ's blood (left at the crime scene) could not be excluded as an exact match for 9.7 billion people... and yet the jury still did not convict him.

However, that jury was biased and the prosecution made several blunders. If the glove doesn't fit.... and also a racists cop in the mix.
Click to expand...
One major issue there too, was that people in general had no idea about DNA. I know for me, it was the first time I’d even heard of it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

DNASolves

Who is Fairfield County Jane Doe (1993)?

Members online

... and 124 more.
Total: 307 (members: 125, guests: 182)

Online statistics

Members online
125
Guests online
182
Total visitors
307
Totals may include hidden visitors.

Forum statistics

Threads
608,573
Messages
18,241,522
Members
234,401
Latest member
CRIM1959
Back
Top